RBA Doesn't Want To Hike Anymore, But Will If Forced
The RBA hiked 25bps to 4.35% — third consecutive hike, 8-1 vote. The three 2026 hikes have completely unwound the three cuts from 2025.
The RBA is the most aggressive major central bank right now. Headline CPI hit 4.6% in March and the board warned of second-round effects from elevated fuel prices. Even under their optimistic scenario — war resolves soon, fuel declines — inflation only returns to target slowly. Markets fully price 4.60% by September.
But the statement also planted a pause signal: "monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments." The 8-1 vote was more hawkish than March's 5-4, yet the language suggests they may be done unless oil forces their hand.
The Aussie is fighting a headwind — surging oil boosts safe-haven USD demand and undermines risk currencies. If the Strait stays closed, the RBA hikes again and AUD rallies. If it reopens, the hike pricing unwinds. Hormuz decides everything for AUD.
- Alan
The RBA hiked 25bps to 4.35% — third consecutive hike, 8-1 vote. The three 2026 hikes have completely unwound the three cuts from 2025.
The RBA is the most aggressive major central bank right now. Headline CPI hit 4.6% in March and the board warned of second-round effects from elevated fuel prices. Even under their optimistic scenario — war resolves soon, fuel declines — inflation only returns to target slowly. Markets fully price 4.60% by September.
But the statement also planted a pause signal: "monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments." The 8-1 vote was more hawkish than March's 5-4, yet the language suggests they may be done unless oil forces their hand.
The Aussie is fighting a headwind — surging oil boosts safe-haven USD demand and undermines risk currencies. If the Strait stays closed, the RBA hikes again and AUD rallies. If it reopens, the hike pricing unwinds. Hormuz decides everything for AUD.
- Alan
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Is The Floor In Equities Strong?
Nasdaq futures are pointing higher on fresh Hormuz escalations. Weird, right?
The index is caught in a tug-of-war — geopolitical risk pulling it down, AI-driven earnings revisions pulling it up. For now, earnings are winning.
The numbers are hard to ignore. S&P 500 full-year earnings growth forecasts have been revised up to 23% from 18% just a month ago. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all crushed it. AI capex commitments are accelerating. The market is telling you it believes the spending will monetize — and until that thesis breaks, dips (if you even want to call it that) are getting bought.
Markets are pricing strong growth and ignoring the war. That works until it doesn't. If Hormuz escalates into a hot conflict, the oil shock reprices everything — earnings estimates included.
- Alan
Nasdaq futures are pointing higher on fresh Hormuz escalations. Weird, right?
The index is caught in a tug-of-war — geopolitical risk pulling it down, AI-driven earnings revisions pulling it up. For now, earnings are winning.
The numbers are hard to ignore. S&P 500 full-year earnings growth forecasts have been revised up to 23% from 18% just a month ago. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all crushed it. AI capex commitments are accelerating. The market is telling you it believes the spending will monetize — and until that thesis breaks, dips (if you even want to call it that) are getting bought.
Markets are pricing strong growth and ignoring the war. That works until it doesn't. If Hormuz escalates into a hot conflict, the oil shock reprices everything — earnings estimates included.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When offshore dollar liquidity dries up, what typically happens in global markets?
When offshore dollar liquidity dries up, what typically happens in global markets?
Anonymous Quiz
30%
Emerging markets strengthen — less dollar supply boosts their currencies
52%
Funding stress rises globally — dollar shortages force asset liquidation across markets
9%
Offshore dollar conditions have no connection to global financial stability
9%
The Fed automatically injects unlimited offshore liquidity in every instance
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New Zealand Employment Figures Come Out Mixed
NZD/USD up 1%, the second straight session of gains after NZ unemployment dipped to 5.3%, beating the 5.4% forecast.
The print was mixed. Employment grew just 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, and wage growth remains subdued — signs of spare capacity despite the headline beat. The war has crushed business confidence, keeping firms cautious on hiring.
The RBNZ held in April but left the door open for hikes if second-round inflation effects emerge. Markets price just 35% odds of a May move, down from 60% last week after Governor Breman said core inflation remains within target. July is still fully priced.
The kiwi is getting some tailwind as the dollar is taking a beating via the Yen strength this early morning.
- Alan
NZD/USD up 1%, the second straight session of gains after NZ unemployment dipped to 5.3%, beating the 5.4% forecast.
The print was mixed. Employment grew just 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, and wage growth remains subdued — signs of spare capacity despite the headline beat. The war has crushed business confidence, keeping firms cautious on hiring.
The RBNZ held in April but left the door open for hikes if second-round inflation effects emerge. Markets price just 35% odds of a May move, down from 60% last week after Governor Breman said core inflation remains within target. July is still fully priced.
The kiwi is getting some tailwind as the dollar is taking a beating via the Yen strength this early morning.
- Alan
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The Widow Maker Crashes Out Again (USD/JPY)
USD/JPY dropped from 157.80 to 155 in less than 30 minutes — 280 pips gone. The pair sliced through 155.50 support like it wasn't there. No official confirmation, but the playbook is identical to last week's suspected intervention.
This is the third sharp yen spike in two weeks. Katayama warned of "decisive action," and price delivered. Traders were heavily short yen near a two-year positioning extreme — when everyone leans one way, the reversal is violent. Shorts rushing to cover accelerated the move.
The pattern is established: Tokyo strikes without warning, punishes crowded positioning, and resets sentiment. Whether it's actual intervention or coordinated verbal pressure, the result is the same — cascading liquidation.
Until this volatility regime clears, USD/JPY is a widow-maker for high-conviction directional bets. And if you're trading this Yen environment, make sure you're sizing responsibly.
- Alan
USD/JPY dropped from 157.80 to 155 in less than 30 minutes — 280 pips gone. The pair sliced through 155.50 support like it wasn't there. No official confirmation, but the playbook is identical to last week's suspected intervention.
This is the third sharp yen spike in two weeks. Katayama warned of "decisive action," and price delivered. Traders were heavily short yen near a two-year positioning extreme — when everyone leans one way, the reversal is violent. Shorts rushing to cover accelerated the move.
The pattern is established: Tokyo strikes without warning, punishes crowded positioning, and resets sentiment. Whether it's actual intervention or coordinated verbal pressure, the result is the same — cascading liquidation.
Until this volatility regime clears, USD/JPY is a widow-maker for high-conviction directional bets. And if you're trading this Yen environment, make sure you're sizing responsibly.
- Alan
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Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
The $SMH ETF has gone on its most incredible run in history, moving up 50% in just 30 days...
My opinion: Can't short it, can't chase it... just sit back with some popcorn!
- Nick
My opinion: Can't short it, can't chase it... just sit back with some popcorn!
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
If a stock's average daily volume is 1 million shares and today it trades 4 million, what does this suggest?
If a stock's average daily volume is 1 million shares and today it trades 4 million, what does this suggest?
Anonymous Quiz
79%
Participation is significantly elevated — something is driving unusual interest
7%
Volume spikes have no relevance to price action under any conditions
5%
The asset will always reverse direction on high volume without exception
9%
Only institutional traders contribute to above-average volume
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Hola Prime is one of the industry’s fastest one-hour payout firms, partnered with Karl-Anthony Towns.
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USOIL: Prices Suggest The End of The War Is Near
WTI is down 5.8% at $90. Brent broke below $100. The catalyst: a reported 14-point MoU framework between the US and Iran that could end the war within days.
The deal includes gradual Hormuz reopening, a nuclear enrichment moratorium, enhanced inspections, and phased sanctions relief. Tehran is reviewing. Trump gave Iran one week — and warned "the bombing starts" if they don't accept.
Oil is stabilizing around $95 this morning for good reason. Multiple draft versions are circulating, Iran hasn't committed, and even if signed, physical reopening takes months — mines need clearing, insurance needs repricing, and 170M barrels on 166 tankers remain stranded.
- Alan
WTI is down 5.8% at $90. Brent broke below $100. The catalyst: a reported 14-point MoU framework between the US and Iran that could end the war within days.
The deal includes gradual Hormuz reopening, a nuclear enrichment moratorium, enhanced inspections, and phased sanctions relief. Tehran is reviewing. Trump gave Iran one week — and warned "the bombing starts" if they don't accept.
Oil is stabilizing around $95 this morning for good reason. Multiple draft versions are circulating, Iran hasn't committed, and even if signed, physical reopening takes months — mines need clearing, insurance needs repricing, and 170M barrels on 166 tankers remain stranded.
- Alan
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XAU/USD: The "Golden Era" May Return. Watch Out For This:
Gold at $4,750, up three straight sessions after rebounding $250 from Monday's lows. But the bigger picture tells a different story — bullion is still down 10% since the war began. The safe haven that was supposed to shine in conflict hasn't.
The pre-war "Golden Era" was built on global easing, falling yields, and central bank gold buying. The war broke that playbook. Central banks pivoted hawkish, yields surged, and the dollar became the preferred safe haven. Gold lost its edge to cash and bonds that actually pay yield.
Here's what changes if a deal lands. Oil drops, inflation expectations cool, rate hike pricing unwinds, and the easing cycle that fueled gold's run can resume. Central bank buying never stopped — that structural bid is still there.
Watch yields, the dollar, and oil. Gold seems to have a strong support level at the $4,400-$4,200 range.
- Alan
Gold at $4,750, up three straight sessions after rebounding $250 from Monday's lows. But the bigger picture tells a different story — bullion is still down 10% since the war began. The safe haven that was supposed to shine in conflict hasn't.
The pre-war "Golden Era" was built on global easing, falling yields, and central bank gold buying. The war broke that playbook. Central banks pivoted hawkish, yields surged, and the dollar became the preferred safe haven. Gold lost its edge to cash and bonds that actually pay yield.
Here's what changes if a deal lands. Oil drops, inflation expectations cool, rate hike pricing unwinds, and the easing cycle that fueled gold's run can resume. Central bank buying never stopped — that structural bid is still there.
Watch yields, the dollar, and oil. Gold seems to have a strong support level at the $4,400-$4,200 range.
- Alan
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AUD currency pairs: retail is still largely betting against the AUD!
We've been bullish AUD and looking to fade the crowd.
By the way, this data is available for FREE on our website, https://a1trading.com/retail-sentiment/
I recommend bookmarking the page!
- Nick
We've been bullish AUD and looking to fade the crowd.
By the way, this data is available for FREE on our website, https://a1trading.com/retail-sentiment/
I recommend bookmarking the page!
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Slippage occurs when:
Slippage occurs when:
Anonymous Quiz
88%
Your order fills at a different price than expected due to market movement or low liquidity
5%
Your broker intentionally delays every order for profit
4%
Slippage only happens in forex — never in stocks or futures
2%
Using a market order eliminates all slippage permanently
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