🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The ATR indicator measures:
The ATR indicator measures:
Anonymous Quiz
7%
Whether an asset is overbought or oversold
86%
The average range of price movement over a set period — a gauge of volatility
5%
The exact price target for the next move without exception
3%
Only upward price movement — downside volatility is excluded entirely
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Global Yields Analysis: The Bond Market Is Now Snapping
Government bonds are selling off simultaneously across every major economy. Japan's 30-year yield hit 4% for the first time since 1999. UK 10-year gilts reached 5.14%, highest since 2008. US 10-year Treasuries at 4.55%, a one-year high. G7 yields up an average 15 basis points this week alone.
The driver is singular: war-driven inflation. Markets now price a 60% probability of a Fed hike this year — before the war, two cuts were expected. Only 4 of 24 major central banks retain any meaningful chance of cutting rates.
The transmission to equities is direct. The 10-year Treasury yield now exceeds the S&P's earnings yield — a mathematical argument for selling stocks that has not existed since 2003.
For risk to stabilize, either oil must decline on a ceasefire or central banks must act decisively enough to restore credibility. Neither has materialized. Until one does, this repricing has further to run.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Government bonds are selling off simultaneously across every major economy. Japan's 30-year yield hit 4% for the first time since 1999. UK 10-year gilts reached 5.14%, highest since 2008. US 10-year Treasuries at 4.55%, a one-year high. G7 yields up an average 15 basis points this week alone.
The driver is singular: war-driven inflation. Markets now price a 60% probability of a Fed hike this year — before the war, two cuts were expected. Only 4 of 24 major central banks retain any meaningful chance of cutting rates.
The transmission to equities is direct. The 10-year Treasury yield now exceeds the S&P's earnings yield — a mathematical argument for selling stocks that has not existed since 2003.
For risk to stabilize, either oil must decline on a ceasefire or central banks must act decisively enough to restore credibility. Neither has materialized. Until one does, this repricing has further to run.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold Forecast: The "Golden Era" Is Now Officially Behind Us
When the Iran war began, the consensus was unanimous — buy gold on the open. Anyone who did has been in a drawdown ever since. Gold has fallen nearly 20% despite being the textbook safe-haven asset.
The environment that fueled gold's rally has reversed. Central banks have pivoted from easing to tightening. Yields are at multi-decade highs. The holding cost of a non-yielding asset is punitive when bonds offer 4–5% risk-free.
Technically, the $4,200–$4,400 zone is meaningful support. This range acted as resistance, was broken, retested, and has absorbed violent selloffs multiple times. The 200-day SMA is now converging with this level.
A risk-defined long attempt at that zone becomes defensible only if the macro backdrop shifts — a ceasefire, declining yields, and central banks reopening the door to easing. Without those catalysts, gold's structural headwinds remain intact.
read the full article here.
— Alan
When the Iran war began, the consensus was unanimous — buy gold on the open. Anyone who did has been in a drawdown ever since. Gold has fallen nearly 20% despite being the textbook safe-haven asset.
The environment that fueled gold's rally has reversed. Central banks have pivoted from easing to tightening. Yields are at multi-decade highs. The holding cost of a non-yielding asset is punitive when bonds offer 4–5% risk-free.
Technically, the $4,200–$4,400 zone is meaningful support. This range acted as resistance, was broken, retested, and has absorbed violent selloffs multiple times. The 200-day SMA is now converging with this level.
A risk-defined long attempt at that zone becomes defensible only if the macro backdrop shifts — a ceasefire, declining yields, and central banks reopening the door to easing. Without those catalysts, gold's structural headwinds remain intact.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
In forex, a standard lot represents how many units of the base currency?
In forex, a standard lot represents how many units of the base currency?
Anonymous Quiz
41%
1,000
18%
10,000
36%
100,000
5%
1,000,000
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When you deposit qualifying amounts with eightcap*
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USD/CAD Analysis: Canada's Inflation Tomorrow Is In Focus
USD/CAD is pressing into a resistance zone that has historically attracted buyers and propelled price toward the 1.390 level. A sustained hold here would confirm a break-and-retest pattern to the upside.
The rate differential favors the dollar — the Fed at 3.50–3.75% versus the BoC at 2.25%. US CPI at 3.8% is running nearly double Canada's 2.4%. Tomorrow's Canadian CPI, expected to jump to approximately ~3.0%, will determine whether this divergence narrows or widens. A print above 3% increases pressure on the BoC to act.
Canadian 10-year yields rose to 3.70%, the highest since May 2024, tracking the global bond selloff.
Fundamentals currently favor USD/CAD upside. If tomorrow's CPI comes in below expectations and this resistance holds, the path toward 1.390 is both technically and fundamentally supported.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USD/CAD is pressing into a resistance zone that has historically attracted buyers and propelled price toward the 1.390 level. A sustained hold here would confirm a break-and-retest pattern to the upside.
The rate differential favors the dollar — the Fed at 3.50–3.75% versus the BoC at 2.25%. US CPI at 3.8% is running nearly double Canada's 2.4%. Tomorrow's Canadian CPI, expected to jump to approximately ~3.0%, will determine whether this divergence narrows or widens. A print above 3% increases pressure on the BoC to act.
Canadian 10-year yields rose to 3.70%, the highest since May 2024, tracking the global bond selloff.
Fundamentals currently favor USD/CAD upside. If tomorrow's CPI comes in below expectations and this resistance holds, the path toward 1.390 is both technically and fundamentally supported.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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US Bonds Outlook: Cracks Are Now Appearing!
The US 10-year is near one-year highs. The 4.5% zone that capped yields in mid-2025 has been decisively broken, confirming the structural shift higher in rates.
Higher yields strengthen the dollar through yield differential, pressure gold by raising the opportunity cost of a non-yielding asset, and compress equity valuations by lifting the discount rate. The S&P's earnings yield is now below the 10-year — a condition absent since 2003.
Fed hike probability has risen to roughly 40%. Oil above $109 and CPI at 3.8% leave no room to ease. The bond market is pricing a Fed that may be forced to tighten further — and risk assets are beginning to listen.
For equities, gold, and risk sentiment to recover, yields must come down. That requires a credible ceasefire bringing oil lower, or inflation data that meaningfully cools. Until one materializes, bonds are the dominant force across every asset class.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 10-year is near one-year highs. The 4.5% zone that capped yields in mid-2025 has been decisively broken, confirming the structural shift higher in rates.
Higher yields strengthen the dollar through yield differential, pressure gold by raising the opportunity cost of a non-yielding asset, and compress equity valuations by lifting the discount rate. The S&P's earnings yield is now below the 10-year — a condition absent since 2003.
Fed hike probability has risen to roughly 40%. Oil above $109 and CPI at 3.8% leave no room to ease. The bond market is pricing a Fed that may be forced to tighten further — and risk assets are beginning to listen.
For equities, gold, and risk sentiment to recover, yields must come down. That requires a credible ceasefire bringing oil lower, or inflation data that meaningfully cools. Until one materializes, bonds are the dominant force across every asset class.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When interest rates rise, what happens to existing bond prices?
When interest rates rise, what happens to existing bond prices?
Anonymous Quiz
39%
They rise — higher rates make existing bonds more valuable
52%
They fall — newer bonds offer better yields, making existing ones less attractive
5%
Bond prices are completely unaffected by interest rate changes
4%
They rise and fall simultaneously depending on the day of the week
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AUD/USD Analysis: RBA Now Warns of Recession Risk
AUD/USD is retreating from a resistance zone that capped the recent advance, down 1.18% on the day.
RBA Assistant Governor Hunter warned that energy pass-through may be stronger than assumed, and restoring price stability could require a substantial economic slowdown — explicitly referencing the early 1990s recession. The RBA will prioritize inflation control over growth.
May meeting minutes confirmed the 8-1 vote to hike to 4.35%. Markets continue pricing an 80% probability of a further increase to 4.60% by August. Consumer confidence rebounded modestly to 83, aided by the government's fuel excise cut.
Despite the hawkish domestic backdrop, the Aussie is losing ground to broad USD strength. The divergence between RBA hawkishness and AUD weakness reflects how dominant the dollar's yield advantage remains at current levels.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUD/USD is retreating from a resistance zone that capped the recent advance, down 1.18% on the day.
RBA Assistant Governor Hunter warned that energy pass-through may be stronger than assumed, and restoring price stability could require a substantial economic slowdown — explicitly referencing the early 1990s recession. The RBA will prioritize inflation control over growth.
May meeting minutes confirmed the 8-1 vote to hike to 4.35%. Markets continue pricing an 80% probability of a further increase to 4.60% by August. Consumer confidence rebounded modestly to 83, aided by the government's fuel excise cut.
Despite the hawkish domestic backdrop, the Aussie is losing ground to broad USD strength. The divergence between RBA hawkishness and AUD weakness reflects how dominant the dollar's yield advantage remains at current levels.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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GBP/USD Analysis: The Labor Market Is Now Cracking
GBP/USD is sliding below the 200-day SMA. The 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone remains firmly intact, with support at 1.3200 the next structural level to the downside.
UK employment fell 100,000 in April — the steepest drop since May 2020 — against expectations of just 10,000. Unemployment rose to 5.0%. Yet average earnings accelerated to 4.1% versus the 3.8% consensus, indicating wage pressures persist even as hiring contracts sharply.
The political backdrop compounds the pressure. The Labour leadership contest could stretch into August, during which international investors may reduce UK exposure. Burnham's decision to preserve fiscal rules offered temporary relief, but governance uncertainty remains elevated.
Markets still price a July BoE hike despite the data.
read the full article here.
— Alan
GBP/USD is sliding below the 200-day SMA. The 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone remains firmly intact, with support at 1.3200 the next structural level to the downside.
UK employment fell 100,000 in April — the steepest drop since May 2020 — against expectations of just 10,000. Unemployment rose to 5.0%. Yet average earnings accelerated to 4.1% versus the 3.8% consensus, indicating wage pressures persist even as hiring contracts sharply.
The political backdrop compounds the pressure. The Labour leadership contest could stretch into August, during which international investors may reduce UK exposure. Burnham's decision to preserve fiscal rules offered temporary relief, but governance uncertainty remains elevated.
Markets still price a July BoE hike despite the data.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Bond Are Red Hot🥵
Chart of the Day: TLT🔥
Chart of the Day: TLT🔥
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