🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Data shows retail-heavy positioning near a multi-year extreme in one direction. Why do some traders treat this as contrarian rather than confirming the trend?
Data shows retail-heavy positioning near a multi-year extreme in one direction. Why do some traders treat this as contrarian rather than confirming the trend?
Anonymous Quiz
20%
Limited fresh capital remains — but positioning only confirms trends, never signals reversals
10%
Limited fresh capital remains — though CFTC data works equally for both approaches
13%
Limited fresh capital remains — but retail positioning has no link to reversals
57%
Limited fresh capital remains to extend the move — increasing reversal risk
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❤16
US 10-Year Yield Now Erases the Entire Buyback Drop
The US 10-year is at 4.70%, back above where it sat before yesterday's buyback news.
Yesterday Treasury tried to tame the long end by boosting buybacks to at least $4 billion. The move was short-lived. The bond market says more is needed to change the direction for long-end yields.
Today the yield erased most of yesterday's drop. Even Bessent floating a bigger buyback than $4 billion only briefly slowed the rise. When the market sells a liquidity injection this fast, it is telling you the problem is bigger than the fix.
Three things keep the long end elevated. Growing US debt, now over $40 trillion for the first time. The Middle East war. And diminishing confidence in the Fed.
Bessent even admitted it. He said pushing long yields down is not really the goal, the yields just do not reflect the fundamentals. PGIM said the same, actually lowering long-term yields is not a reasonable objective.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 10-year is at 4.70%, back above where it sat before yesterday's buyback news.
Yesterday Treasury tried to tame the long end by boosting buybacks to at least $4 billion. The move was short-lived. The bond market says more is needed to change the direction for long-end yields.
Today the yield erased most of yesterday's drop. Even Bessent floating a bigger buyback than $4 billion only briefly slowed the rise. When the market sells a liquidity injection this fast, it is telling you the problem is bigger than the fix.
Three things keep the long end elevated. Growing US debt, now over $40 trillion for the first time. The Middle East war. And diminishing confidence in the Fed.
Bessent even admitted it. He said pushing long yields down is not really the goal, the yields just do not reflect the fundamentals. PGIM said the same, actually lowering long-term yields is not a reasonable objective.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Bitcoin Now Breaks Its 200-Day on the Treasury Buyback
Bitcoin is at 72,662 and back above the 200-day for the first time since May. I am no crypto expert, but I can tell you crypto responded immediately to the bond news.
Here is what happened. Crypto just posted one of its largest short squeezes on record, with over $3 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours. Roughly 92% of that was shorts. Reports put the market cap gain near $280 billion in a day.
All of this hit right after the bond buyback headlines. People will point at other drivers, the White House crypto summit, new SEC rules. But the clear reason for the past two days is the prospect of lower long-end yields.
Here's why: The buyback hands bondholders liquidity, and they redeploy it into higher-yielding assets. Bitcoin is one of them.
One caution. Yields are already recouping their losses, so waiting for pullbacks and making sure they hold (if you're bullish) would be wise.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Bitcoin is at 72,662 and back above the 200-day for the first time since May. I am no crypto expert, but I can tell you crypto responded immediately to the bond news.
Here is what happened. Crypto just posted one of its largest short squeezes on record, with over $3 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours. Roughly 92% of that was shorts. Reports put the market cap gain near $280 billion in a day.
All of this hit right after the bond buyback headlines. People will point at other drivers, the White House crypto summit, new SEC rules. But the clear reason for the past two days is the prospect of lower long-end yields.
Here's why: The buyback hands bondholders liquidity, and they redeploy it into higher-yielding assets. Bitcoin is one of them.
One caution. Yields are already recouping their losses, so waiting for pullbacks and making sure they hold (if you're bullish) would be wise.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is core PCE, not core CPI, even though both track similar trends. Why does this matter for interpreting Fed policy?
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is core PCE, not core CPI, even though both track similar trends. Why does this matter for interpreting Fed policy?
Anonymous Quiz
35%
PCE weights substitution differently — can run persistently lower than CPI
23%
PCE weights substitution differently — but PCE and CPI are identical by construction
25%
PCE weights substitution differently — though the Fed weighs CPI more heavily
17%
PCE weights substitution differently — but this only matters for forecasting
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A macro / economic surprise index widget has been added to the asset scorecard tab.
What this tracks:
This tool tracks the % of economic data tracked by EdgeFinder beating or missing expectations for the selected country.
A small dropdown has also been included, to allow customization and selection of multiple countries at once!
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🔥26❤9👍4
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❤7
USD/CHF Now Looking for a Pullback Into Key Fibs
Strong flush lower on USDCHF. Price is at 0.80153 after tagging 0.79491 and bouncing. The Swiss franc is at its highest in two months.
This is the same driver that moved everything this week. The Treasury buyback weakened the dollar, and that let the franc run. Eight days ago I flagged this pair as pointing lower, with the catch being that the franc is a haven and both legs can move together. The buyback took that complication off the table. The dollar leg broke, and the franc strength ran clean.
I am personally looking for pullback levels into the key fibs to continue lower. The 0.382 at 0.80248 is the first. Above it, the 0.5 at 0.80482 and the 0.618 at 0.80716. My target is the 200-day.
I am not chasing price. I want the retracement to give the entry.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Strong flush lower on USDCHF. Price is at 0.80153 after tagging 0.79491 and bouncing. The Swiss franc is at its highest in two months.
This is the same driver that moved everything this week. The Treasury buyback weakened the dollar, and that let the franc run. Eight days ago I flagged this pair as pointing lower, with the catch being that the franc is a haven and both legs can move together. The buyback took that complication off the table. The dollar leg broke, and the franc strength ran clean.
I am personally looking for pullback levels into the key fibs to continue lower. The 0.382 at 0.80248 is the first. Above it, the 0.5 at 0.80482 and the 0.618 at 0.80716. My target is the 200-day.
I am not chasing price. I want the retracement to give the entry.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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AUDUSD Now Eyes an 8th Straight Week as the Dollar Slides
AUDUSD is at 0.71618 and grinding higher, giving no pullbacks for swing traders. A resistance zone lies ahead at 0.7200 to 0.7277.
The Aussie is now headed for its eighth straight weekly gain, up nearly 4% from the June low.
Two things drive it. The dollar is broadly weak on growing worry that US debt and policy erode its purchasing power. And Australia is pulling capital in. A new 2038 bond sold with bids near five times the offer.
The RBA side is steady. Soft wages and jobs data have markets pricing just a 13% chance of a September hike, so a hold is expected. February 2027 is about 68% priced.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUDUSD is at 0.71618 and grinding higher, giving no pullbacks for swing traders. A resistance zone lies ahead at 0.7200 to 0.7277.
The Aussie is now headed for its eighth straight weekly gain, up nearly 4% from the June low.
Two things drive it. The dollar is broadly weak on growing worry that US debt and policy erode its purchasing power. And Australia is pulling capital in. A new 2038 bond sold with bids near five times the offer.
The RBA side is steady. Soft wages and jobs data have markets pricing just a 13% chance of a September hike, so a hold is expected. February 2027 is about 68% priced.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
American-style options can only be exercised by the holder at expiration, never before.
American-style options can only be exercised by the holder at expiration, never before.
Anonymous Quiz
39%
True
61%
False
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👍8❤4
USD/CAD Now Tests the 200 as Canada Trade War Escalates
USDCAD is bouncing hard off the 1.3720 to 1.3750 support zone it tapped into last week. Price is back above the 200-day near 1.3840.
The Canadian dollar fell as the US-Canada trade war intensified. Talks collapsed starting Friday night. On Saturday, 50% US tariffs hit roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, about 5% of Canada's exports. Carney retaliates dollar-for-dollar starting September 8. Trump also threatened 50% on Canadian autos and steel for January 1, 2027.
Here is what makes this pair different from my other dollar charts this week. Everywhere else the dollar is the weak side. Here it is the strong side, because tariffs hit the loonie harder than debt worries hit the dollar.
I'm watching the 200 Day SMA closely. If it fails this may be a clean short.
Jackson Hole and Warsh are ahead.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDCAD is bouncing hard off the 1.3720 to 1.3750 support zone it tapped into last week. Price is back above the 200-day near 1.3840.
The Canadian dollar fell as the US-Canada trade war intensified. Talks collapsed starting Friday night. On Saturday, 50% US tariffs hit roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, about 5% of Canada's exports. Carney retaliates dollar-for-dollar starting September 8. Trump also threatened 50% on Canadian autos and steel for January 1, 2027.
Here is what makes this pair different from my other dollar charts this week. Everywhere else the dollar is the weak side. Here it is the strong side, because tariffs hit the loonie harder than debt worries hit the dollar.
I'm watching the 200 Day SMA closely. If it fails this may be a clean short.
Jackson Hole and Warsh are ahead.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USOIL Respects Resistance Despite Sanction Threats
Oil is at ~$85 and respecting the technicals. Still under the bearish trendline off the April high, still inside the 84 to 86.50 resistance band.
Crude fell about 2% toward $85 today as traders awaited details of the US plan to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Bessent said the objective was to cut off Tehran's economic lifelines, calling it an economic D-Day.
Here is the twist. Oil is falling on a sanctions escalation. Bessent himself said traders misread the threat by bidding oil up, and today the market came around to his view. The China angle is why. Beijing buys about 90% of Iran's oil, so targeting it could pressure Tehran but risks broader fallout.
Meanwhile oil keeps moving through Hormuz. Reports had around 16 million barrels crossing in a single night last week.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Oil is at ~$85 and respecting the technicals. Still under the bearish trendline off the April high, still inside the 84 to 86.50 resistance band.
Crude fell about 2% toward $85 today as traders awaited details of the US plan to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Bessent said the objective was to cut off Tehran's economic lifelines, calling it an economic D-Day.
Here is the twist. Oil is falling on a sanctions escalation. Bessent himself said traders misread the threat by bidding oil up, and today the market came around to his view. The China angle is why. Beijing buys about 90% of Iran's oil, so targeting it could pressure Tehran but risks broader fallout.
Meanwhile oil keeps moving through Hormuz. Reports had around 16 million barrels crossing in a single night last week.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The volatility risk premium exists mainly because option sellers are compensated for tail risk, not because the market misforecasts volatility.
The volatility risk premium exists mainly because option sellers are compensated for tail risk, not because the market misforecasts volatility.
Anonymous Quiz
56%
True
44%
False
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US 30-Year Yield Now Falls as Oil and Iran Pressure Ease
The US 30-year yield is at 5.186, down 0.82%. It has given back some of the gains from the past couple days.
You had a big red candle print after Scott Bessent announced his bond buybacks, from $2 to $4 billion, on August 19. Price is now sitting right at the low of that day's candle. So I think there is some support here, near-term, at 5.160 you can call it. If you break that level, you could see a flush and continuation lower.
Me personally, I do think there is continued pressure on the long end. Today is also getting help from Middle East developments. The US said it will send more diplomats to the region as negotiations resume, and Bessent added secondary sanctions on China to reduce Iran's economic strength.
If yields break 5.150 then I see a potential retest of the 200-day.
Jackson Hole is later this week. For now the path of least resistance is lower.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 30-year yield is at 5.186, down 0.82%. It has given back some of the gains from the past couple days.
You had a big red candle print after Scott Bessent announced his bond buybacks, from $2 to $4 billion, on August 19. Price is now sitting right at the low of that day's candle. So I think there is some support here, near-term, at 5.160 you can call it. If you break that level, you could see a flush and continuation lower.
Me personally, I do think there is continued pressure on the long end. Today is also getting help from Middle East developments. The US said it will send more diplomats to the region as negotiations resume, and Bessent added secondary sanctions on China to reduce Iran's economic strength.
If yields break 5.150 then I see a potential retest of the 200-day.
Jackson Hole is later this week. For now the path of least resistance is lower.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤16🔥4👍1
Euro Now Near a Three-Month High as ECB Hike Nears
EURUSD is turning green on the day. It tapped into some previous resistance, possibly turned support, right above the 200-day.
One thing I am noticing here. This looks like the kind of pullback that gets bought rather shallow, instead of a deeper retracement. Price is holding up near its highest since mid-May.
The ECB is widely expected to raise rates in September, following its June tightening, to ease inflation pressures triggered by the US-Iran conflict. That hike would bring the deposit rate to 2.5%. Expectations for further tightening are growing as the Middle East drags on.
Here is my main point. The eurozone is more vulnerable to the region than the US is. They are not a net exporter, and they are closer in proximity. So the war's inflation pressure hurts them more. As long as it drags on, I expect it keeps pressuring the ECB to hike further.
Watch that support hold above the 200-day.
read the full article here.
— Alan
EURUSD is turning green on the day. It tapped into some previous resistance, possibly turned support, right above the 200-day.
One thing I am noticing here. This looks like the kind of pullback that gets bought rather shallow, instead of a deeper retracement. Price is holding up near its highest since mid-May.
The ECB is widely expected to raise rates in September, following its June tightening, to ease inflation pressures triggered by the US-Iran conflict. That hike would bring the deposit rate to 2.5%. Expectations for further tightening are growing as the Middle East drags on.
Here is my main point. The eurozone is more vulnerable to the region than the US is. They are not a net exporter, and they are closer in proximity. So the war's inflation pressure hurts them more. As long as it drags on, I expect it keeps pressuring the ECB to hike further.
Watch that support hold above the 200-day.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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