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All trades come with entries, exits, and thorough breakdowns behind why the trade was taken.
Get notifications for every trade we take here 👈
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👍8❤4
USD/CAD Now Tests the 200 as Canada Trade War Escalates
USDCAD is bouncing hard off the 1.3720 to 1.3750 support zone it tapped into last week. Price is back above the 200-day near 1.3840.
The Canadian dollar fell as the US-Canada trade war intensified. Talks collapsed starting Friday night. On Saturday, 50% US tariffs hit roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, about 5% of Canada's exports. Carney retaliates dollar-for-dollar starting September 8. Trump also threatened 50% on Canadian autos and steel for January 1, 2027.
Here is what makes this pair different from my other dollar charts this week. Everywhere else the dollar is the weak side. Here it is the strong side, because tariffs hit the loonie harder than debt worries hit the dollar.
I'm watching the 200 Day SMA closely. If it fails this may be a clean short.
Jackson Hole and Warsh are ahead.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDCAD is bouncing hard off the 1.3720 to 1.3750 support zone it tapped into last week. Price is back above the 200-day near 1.3840.
The Canadian dollar fell as the US-Canada trade war intensified. Talks collapsed starting Friday night. On Saturday, 50% US tariffs hit roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, about 5% of Canada's exports. Carney retaliates dollar-for-dollar starting September 8. Trump also threatened 50% on Canadian autos and steel for January 1, 2027.
Here is what makes this pair different from my other dollar charts this week. Everywhere else the dollar is the weak side. Here it is the strong side, because tariffs hit the loonie harder than debt worries hit the dollar.
I'm watching the 200 Day SMA closely. If it fails this may be a clean short.
Jackson Hole and Warsh are ahead.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤14👍3
USOIL Respects Resistance Despite Sanction Threats
Oil is at ~$85 and respecting the technicals. Still under the bearish trendline off the April high, still inside the 84 to 86.50 resistance band.
Crude fell about 2% toward $85 today as traders awaited details of the US plan to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Bessent said the objective was to cut off Tehran's economic lifelines, calling it an economic D-Day.
Here is the twist. Oil is falling on a sanctions escalation. Bessent himself said traders misread the threat by bidding oil up, and today the market came around to his view. The China angle is why. Beijing buys about 90% of Iran's oil, so targeting it could pressure Tehran but risks broader fallout.
Meanwhile oil keeps moving through Hormuz. Reports had around 16 million barrels crossing in a single night last week.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Oil is at ~$85 and respecting the technicals. Still under the bearish trendline off the April high, still inside the 84 to 86.50 resistance band.
Crude fell about 2% toward $85 today as traders awaited details of the US plan to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Bessent said the objective was to cut off Tehran's economic lifelines, calling it an economic D-Day.
Here is the twist. Oil is falling on a sanctions escalation. Bessent himself said traders misread the threat by bidding oil up, and today the market came around to his view. The China angle is why. Beijing buys about 90% of Iran's oil, so targeting it could pressure Tehran but risks broader fallout.
Meanwhile oil keeps moving through Hormuz. Reports had around 16 million barrels crossing in a single night last week.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤27👍3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The volatility risk premium exists mainly because option sellers are compensated for tail risk, not because the market misforecasts volatility.
The volatility risk premium exists mainly because option sellers are compensated for tail risk, not because the market misforecasts volatility.
Anonymous Quiz
56%
True
44%
False
❤18👍1
US 30-Year Yield Now Falls as Oil and Iran Pressure Ease
The US 30-year yield is at 5.186, down 0.82%. It has given back some of the gains from the past couple days.
You had a big red candle print after Scott Bessent announced his bond buybacks, from $2 to $4 billion, on August 19. Price is now sitting right at the low of that day's candle. So I think there is some support here, near-term, at 5.160 you can call it. If you break that level, you could see a flush and continuation lower.
Me personally, I do think there is continued pressure on the long end. Today is also getting help from Middle East developments. The US said it will send more diplomats to the region as negotiations resume, and Bessent added secondary sanctions on China to reduce Iran's economic strength.
If yields break 5.150 then I see a potential retest of the 200-day.
Jackson Hole is later this week. For now the path of least resistance is lower.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 30-year yield is at 5.186, down 0.82%. It has given back some of the gains from the past couple days.
You had a big red candle print after Scott Bessent announced his bond buybacks, from $2 to $4 billion, on August 19. Price is now sitting right at the low of that day's candle. So I think there is some support here, near-term, at 5.160 you can call it. If you break that level, you could see a flush and continuation lower.
Me personally, I do think there is continued pressure on the long end. Today is also getting help from Middle East developments. The US said it will send more diplomats to the region as negotiations resume, and Bessent added secondary sanctions on China to reduce Iran's economic strength.
If yields break 5.150 then I see a potential retest of the 200-day.
Jackson Hole is later this week. For now the path of least resistance is lower.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤16🔥4👍1
Euro Now Near a Three-Month High as ECB Hike Nears
EURUSD is turning green on the day. It tapped into some previous resistance, possibly turned support, right above the 200-day.
One thing I am noticing here. This looks like the kind of pullback that gets bought rather shallow, instead of a deeper retracement. Price is holding up near its highest since mid-May.
The ECB is widely expected to raise rates in September, following its June tightening, to ease inflation pressures triggered by the US-Iran conflict. That hike would bring the deposit rate to 2.5%. Expectations for further tightening are growing as the Middle East drags on.
Here is my main point. The eurozone is more vulnerable to the region than the US is. They are not a net exporter, and they are closer in proximity. So the war's inflation pressure hurts them more. As long as it drags on, I expect it keeps pressuring the ECB to hike further.
Watch that support hold above the 200-day.
read the full article here.
— Alan
EURUSD is turning green on the day. It tapped into some previous resistance, possibly turned support, right above the 200-day.
One thing I am noticing here. This looks like the kind of pullback that gets bought rather shallow, instead of a deeper retracement. Price is holding up near its highest since mid-May.
The ECB is widely expected to raise rates in September, following its June tightening, to ease inflation pressures triggered by the US-Iran conflict. That hike would bring the deposit rate to 2.5%. Expectations for further tightening are growing as the Middle East drags on.
Here is my main point. The eurozone is more vulnerable to the region than the US is. They are not a net exporter, and they are closer in proximity. So the war's inflation pressure hurts them more. As long as it drags on, I expect it keeps pressuring the ECB to hike further.
Watch that support hold above the 200-day.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤20🔥5👍3
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❤10🔥3😁1
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Gold has historically shown a strong inverse relationship with real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). Why does this relationship sometimes break down during acute crisis periods?
Gold has historically shown a strong inverse relationship with real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). Why does this relationship sometimes break down during acute crisis periods?
Anonymous Quiz
69%
In extreme stress, gold gets sold for liquidity — overriding the usual link
31%
In extreme stress, gold gets sold for liquidity — though only when real yields are negative
❤15👍1
Bitcoin Now Holds Above the 200-Day With Resistance Ahead
Bitcoin is sitting near its relative highs after spiking many percentage points this week. It is now tapping into resistance near the 80,000 to 82,000 handles.
This was mostly driven by lower US bond yields, and the idea that they may stay lower. More bond buybacks, more liquidity, and that gives investors the ability to recoup their bond investments and deploy that into higher-yielding assets.
So the question is does it continue higher and break above resistance with a break, retest, and continuation, or does it keep trading in its range.
The 30-year yield is sitting on support near 5.150. If it breaks that level and continues lower, I would imagine Bitcoin finds more momentum higher. If that level holds and yields stay stubborn, Bitcoin likely stays range-bound.
For the bulls, it looks quite good. You are now above the 200-day. A pullback that holds above it looks exceptionally well for the bull case.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Bitcoin is sitting near its relative highs after spiking many percentage points this week. It is now tapping into resistance near the 80,000 to 82,000 handles.
This was mostly driven by lower US bond yields, and the idea that they may stay lower. More bond buybacks, more liquidity, and that gives investors the ability to recoup their bond investments and deploy that into higher-yielding assets.
So the question is does it continue higher and break above resistance with a break, retest, and continuation, or does it keep trading in its range.
The 30-year yield is sitting on support near 5.150. If it breaks that level and continues lower, I would imagine Bitcoin finds more momentum higher. If that level holds and yields stay stubborn, Bitcoin likely stays range-bound.
For the bulls, it looks quite good. You are now above the 200-day. A pullback that holds above it looks exceptionally well for the bull case.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤7🔥5
AUDUSD Hits a 12-Week High on Hot July Inflation
AUDUSD hit a 12-week high as hotter than expected July inflation fueled the risk of another rate hike.
Monthly CPI rose 1.0% in July against a 0.8% forecast. Annual eased to 3.5% from 3.8%, but stayed above the 3.3% expected. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred core measure, rose 0.5% against a 0.3% forecast, leaving annual core at 3.6%. Nonetheless RBA is seeing elevated inflation.
The monthly spike was driven by fuel, up 7.5% after three months of falling, on higher world oil prices. Remember, Australia is not a net-exporter like the U.S. I'd say that's the Middle East war showing up directly in the data. As long as oil stays elevated and the region stays unresolved, the RBA is on alert. Bullock said another hike is quite possible.
Hike odds jumped to 27% from 17%. February is priced at 80%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUDUSD hit a 12-week high as hotter than expected July inflation fueled the risk of another rate hike.
Monthly CPI rose 1.0% in July against a 0.8% forecast. Annual eased to 3.5% from 3.8%, but stayed above the 3.3% expected. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred core measure, rose 0.5% against a 0.3% forecast, leaving annual core at 3.6%. Nonetheless RBA is seeing elevated inflation.
The monthly spike was driven by fuel, up 7.5% after three months of falling, on higher world oil prices. Remember, Australia is not a net-exporter like the U.S. I'd say that's the Middle East war showing up directly in the data. As long as oil stays elevated and the region stays unresolved, the RBA is on alert. Bullock said another hike is quite possible.
Hike odds jumped to 27% from 17%. February is priced at 80%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤20👍2
Gold 4H Chart:
I am looking for long setups. Watching close as price begins a bit of a pullback here.
Bullish due to a slowing labor market, softer economic growth metrics, and inflation neutral.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here. (40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
- Nick
I am looking for long setups. Watching close as price begins a bit of a pullback here.
Bullish due to a slowing labor market, softer economic growth metrics, and inflation neutral.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here. (40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
- Nick
👍19❤7🔥3
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❤11👍5🔥4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why can a modest adverse currency move in a highly leveraged carry trade produce a loss that dwarfs months of accumulated carry income?
Why can a modest adverse currency move in a highly leveraged carry trade produce a loss that dwarfs months of accumulated carry income?
Anonymous Quiz
61%
Leverage amplifies adverse moves more than daily carry earned, a small move erases outsized capital
12%
Leverage only affects carry income size, not the magnitude of price swings
15%
Margin requirements scale down as losses build, capping total drawdown
11%
Carry income is calculated independently of leverage, so the two never interact
❤8👍1
$NVDA ripping higher on earnings! They doubled earnings year over year. Sheesh!
Congrats to those who rode the move.
Trade was shared in our VIP signals group a few days back.
Congrats to those who rode the move.
Trade was shared in our VIP signals group a few days back.
❤18🔥13
NVIDIA update:
I'm trimming my stop a bit, very nice pop following earnings and support holding for now!
I will look to trail stops further into profits and/or may choose to to my position.
All updates will be sent to VIP members
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- Nick
I'm trimming my stop a bit, very nice pop following earnings and support holding for now!
I will look to trail stops further into profits and/or may choose to to my position.
All updates will be sent to VIP members
If you are interested in getting our lifetime VIP membership at a discount + a payment plan option, please message here
- Nick
🔥19❤7👍3
Silver Analysis: Clear 70 and the 200-Day Is Likely Next
Silver is back on track for another solid day, turning green and up almost 2%. It had a brief pullback that didn't quite tap the previous resistance turned support.
If you clear 70, then likely you continue pushing higher into the 200-day, which is hovering around 72.37.
Despite slightly hotter than expected US inflation, concerns over debt continue to support demand for silver. Silver is reaching for those two-month highs. You also have bond yields tamed right now, not exploding higher, which is helping silver a bit.
The recent rally is really about dollar debasement worries after the Treasury boosted its bond buybacks.
You have Jackson Hole main event on Friday. We will look to Warsh for any new forward guidance. But the outlook for the precious metals here is pretty strong.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Silver is back on track for another solid day, turning green and up almost 2%. It had a brief pullback that didn't quite tap the previous resistance turned support.
If you clear 70, then likely you continue pushing higher into the 200-day, which is hovering around 72.37.
Despite slightly hotter than expected US inflation, concerns over debt continue to support demand for silver. Silver is reaching for those two-month highs. You also have bond yields tamed right now, not exploding higher, which is helping silver a bit.
The recent rally is really about dollar debasement worries after the Treasury boosted its bond buybacks.
You have Jackson Hole main event on Friday. We will look to Warsh for any new forward guidance. But the outlook for the precious metals here is pretty strong.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍16❤6