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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Gold has historically shown a strong inverse relationship with real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). Why does this relationship sometimes break down during acute crisis periods?
Gold has historically shown a strong inverse relationship with real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). Why does this relationship sometimes break down during acute crisis periods?
Anonymous Quiz
69%
In extreme stress, gold gets sold for liquidity — overriding the usual link
31%
In extreme stress, gold gets sold for liquidity — though only when real yields are negative
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Bitcoin Now Holds Above the 200-Day With Resistance Ahead
Bitcoin is sitting near its relative highs after spiking many percentage points this week. It is now tapping into resistance near the 80,000 to 82,000 handles.
This was mostly driven by lower US bond yields, and the idea that they may stay lower. More bond buybacks, more liquidity, and that gives investors the ability to recoup their bond investments and deploy that into higher-yielding assets.
So the question is does it continue higher and break above resistance with a break, retest, and continuation, or does it keep trading in its range.
The 30-year yield is sitting on support near 5.150. If it breaks that level and continues lower, I would imagine Bitcoin finds more momentum higher. If that level holds and yields stay stubborn, Bitcoin likely stays range-bound.
For the bulls, it looks quite good. You are now above the 200-day. A pullback that holds above it looks exceptionally well for the bull case.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Bitcoin is sitting near its relative highs after spiking many percentage points this week. It is now tapping into resistance near the 80,000 to 82,000 handles.
This was mostly driven by lower US bond yields, and the idea that they may stay lower. More bond buybacks, more liquidity, and that gives investors the ability to recoup their bond investments and deploy that into higher-yielding assets.
So the question is does it continue higher and break above resistance with a break, retest, and continuation, or does it keep trading in its range.
The 30-year yield is sitting on support near 5.150. If it breaks that level and continues lower, I would imagine Bitcoin finds more momentum higher. If that level holds and yields stay stubborn, Bitcoin likely stays range-bound.
For the bulls, it looks quite good. You are now above the 200-day. A pullback that holds above it looks exceptionally well for the bull case.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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AUDUSD Hits a 12-Week High on Hot July Inflation
AUDUSD hit a 12-week high as hotter than expected July inflation fueled the risk of another rate hike.
Monthly CPI rose 1.0% in July against a 0.8% forecast. Annual eased to 3.5% from 3.8%, but stayed above the 3.3% expected. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred core measure, rose 0.5% against a 0.3% forecast, leaving annual core at 3.6%. Nonetheless RBA is seeing elevated inflation.
The monthly spike was driven by fuel, up 7.5% after three months of falling, on higher world oil prices. Remember, Australia is not a net-exporter like the U.S. I'd say that's the Middle East war showing up directly in the data. As long as oil stays elevated and the region stays unresolved, the RBA is on alert. Bullock said another hike is quite possible.
Hike odds jumped to 27% from 17%. February is priced at 80%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUDUSD hit a 12-week high as hotter than expected July inflation fueled the risk of another rate hike.
Monthly CPI rose 1.0% in July against a 0.8% forecast. Annual eased to 3.5% from 3.8%, but stayed above the 3.3% expected. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred core measure, rose 0.5% against a 0.3% forecast, leaving annual core at 3.6%. Nonetheless RBA is seeing elevated inflation.
The monthly spike was driven by fuel, up 7.5% after three months of falling, on higher world oil prices. Remember, Australia is not a net-exporter like the U.S. I'd say that's the Middle East war showing up directly in the data. As long as oil stays elevated and the region stays unresolved, the RBA is on alert. Bullock said another hike is quite possible.
Hike odds jumped to 27% from 17%. February is priced at 80%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold 4H Chart:
I am looking for long setups. Watching close as price begins a bit of a pullback here.
Bullish due to a slowing labor market, softer economic growth metrics, and inflation neutral.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here. (40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
- Nick
I am looking for long setups. Watching close as price begins a bit of a pullback here.
Bullish due to a slowing labor market, softer economic growth metrics, and inflation neutral.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here. (40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why can a modest adverse currency move in a highly leveraged carry trade produce a loss that dwarfs months of accumulated carry income?
Why can a modest adverse currency move in a highly leveraged carry trade produce a loss that dwarfs months of accumulated carry income?
Anonymous Quiz
61%
Leverage amplifies adverse moves more than daily carry earned, a small move erases outsized capital
12%
Leverage only affects carry income size, not the magnitude of price swings
15%
Margin requirements scale down as losses build, capping total drawdown
11%
Carry income is calculated independently of leverage, so the two never interact
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$NVDA ripping higher on earnings! They doubled earnings year over year. Sheesh!
Congrats to those who rode the move.
Trade was shared in our VIP signals group a few days back.
Congrats to those who rode the move.
Trade was shared in our VIP signals group a few days back.
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NVIDIA update:
I'm trimming my stop a bit, very nice pop following earnings and support holding for now!
I will look to trail stops further into profits and/or may choose to to my position.
All updates will be sent to VIP members
If you are interested in getting our lifetime VIP membership at a discount + a payment plan option, please message here
- Nick
I'm trimming my stop a bit, very nice pop following earnings and support holding for now!
I will look to trail stops further into profits and/or may choose to to my position.
All updates will be sent to VIP members
If you are interested in getting our lifetime VIP membership at a discount + a payment plan option, please message here
- Nick
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Silver Analysis: Clear 70 and the 200-Day Is Likely Next
Silver is back on track for another solid day, turning green and up almost 2%. It had a brief pullback that didn't quite tap the previous resistance turned support.
If you clear 70, then likely you continue pushing higher into the 200-day, which is hovering around 72.37.
Despite slightly hotter than expected US inflation, concerns over debt continue to support demand for silver. Silver is reaching for those two-month highs. You also have bond yields tamed right now, not exploding higher, which is helping silver a bit.
The recent rally is really about dollar debasement worries after the Treasury boosted its bond buybacks.
You have Jackson Hole main event on Friday. We will look to Warsh for any new forward guidance. But the outlook for the precious metals here is pretty strong.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Silver is back on track for another solid day, turning green and up almost 2%. It had a brief pullback that didn't quite tap the previous resistance turned support.
If you clear 70, then likely you continue pushing higher into the 200-day, which is hovering around 72.37.
Despite slightly hotter than expected US inflation, concerns over debt continue to support demand for silver. Silver is reaching for those two-month highs. You also have bond yields tamed right now, not exploding higher, which is helping silver a bit.
The recent rally is really about dollar debasement worries after the Treasury boosted its bond buybacks.
You have Jackson Hole main event on Friday. We will look to Warsh for any new forward guidance. But the outlook for the precious metals here is pretty strong.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USDCAD Now Rejecting Resistance as the CAD Holds Its Ground
USDCAD, one of my favorite positions right now, is tapping into resistance that held nicely back in January 2026 and again in April. We tapped it and we are rejecting it as of now.
I want to see us stay below the 200-day. Right now we are just above it. But a close below it that holds would signal solid bear participation. I am targeting 1.3700 as a profit target, then trailing stops lower if it keeps trending.
The Canadian dollar is holding up quite nicely. It seems the market priced a worst case for Canada that is not showing up. Canada just posted its first current account surplus in four years, driven by record energy exports on higher oil. Despite all the tariff drama, the loonie is holding its own, and I like that relative strength.
I am broadly bearish on the dollar. EdgeFinder reads -8 on USD/CAD. Watch Jackson Hole and any Middle East headlines that could deter the trend.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDCAD, one of my favorite positions right now, is tapping into resistance that held nicely back in January 2026 and again in April. We tapped it and we are rejecting it as of now.
I want to see us stay below the 200-day. Right now we are just above it. But a close below it that holds would signal solid bear participation. I am targeting 1.3700 as a profit target, then trailing stops lower if it keeps trending.
The Canadian dollar is holding up quite nicely. It seems the market priced a worst case for Canada that is not showing up. Canada just posted its first current account surplus in four years, driven by record energy exports on higher oil. Despite all the tariff drama, the loonie is holding its own, and I like that relative strength.
I am broadly bearish on the dollar. EdgeFinder reads -8 on USD/CAD. Watch Jackson Hole and any Middle East headlines that could deter the trend.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
QE works by the central bank directly lending money to businesses and consumers.
QE works by the central bank directly lending money to businesses and consumers.
Anonymous Quiz
40%
True
60%
False
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VIX Now Sits Low as Retail Turns Sharply Bearish
Are we in a bubble? Most likely. Will it pop? I have no idea. But one chart to be mindful of is the VIX.
Is it low? Yes. It is at 14.43, sitting near the lows and well below the 200-day. A low VIX means markets grind higher, and that is exactly what they have done. But we all know what can happen if the VIX decides to wake up. Look at the March spike to 35 on this same chart.
Retail is not calm at all. The latest AAII survey has bearish sentiment at 44.4%, unusually high and above its average for 29 straight weeks. The bull-bear spread fell to negative 11.5%.
So you have very fearful investors, a very calm VIX, and indexes near record highs. Those three things do not usually sit together for long.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Are we in a bubble? Most likely. Will it pop? I have no idea. But one chart to be mindful of is the VIX.
Is it low? Yes. It is at 14.43, sitting near the lows and well below the 200-day. A low VIX means markets grind higher, and that is exactly what they have done. But we all know what can happen if the VIX decides to wake up. Look at the March spike to 35 on this same chart.
Retail is not calm at all. The latest AAII survey has bearish sentiment at 44.4%, unusually high and above its average for 29 straight weeks. The bull-bear spread fell to negative 11.5%.
So you have very fearful investors, a very calm VIX, and indexes near record highs. Those three things do not usually sit together for long.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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US 10-Year Yield Is Now Testing a Ceiling from 2023
The US 10-year yield is at 4.684, creeping higher as traders wait on Warsh at Jackson Hole this morning.
Yields broke out of the war-start zone near 3.80 to 4.00 and climbed the trendline the entire way, right into the resistance that has capped them since 2023. We are testing that level now.
Yields rose after the July meeting because Warsh was seen as not offering enough concrete steps on inflation. He is running a divided Fed. He has said 2% is his firm target, no question about it, and several officials share the inflation concern.
As for today, Warsh prefers less forward guidance, so this may not deliver much volatility. He is not going to foreshadow September. And as long as oil prices remain tamed, there's really no urgency to hike.
Hike odds are 35% for September, 75% by December. PCE held at 3.7%, above target for the 65th straight month.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 10-year yield is at 4.684, creeping higher as traders wait on Warsh at Jackson Hole this morning.
Yields broke out of the war-start zone near 3.80 to 4.00 and climbed the trendline the entire way, right into the resistance that has capped them since 2023. We are testing that level now.
Yields rose after the July meeting because Warsh was seen as not offering enough concrete steps on inflation. He is running a divided Fed. He has said 2% is his firm target, no question about it, and several officials share the inflation concern.
As for today, Warsh prefers less forward guidance, so this may not deliver much volatility. He is not going to foreshadow September. And as long as oil prices remain tamed, there's really no urgency to hike.
Hike odds are 35% for September, 75% by December. PCE held at 3.7%, above target for the 65th straight month.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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EdgeFinder improvement! Data that has new data coming soon will now highlight in red 😎
This is useful because it allows traders to see impending new information that could potentially change scores.
If you see several red text items, that could indicate a significant score change may be pending!
This has been requested by several dedicated EdgeFinder users, and I great appreciate the suggestions.
Have a wonderful weekend traders!
- Nick
This is useful because it allows traders to see impending new information that could potentially change scores.
If you see several red text items, that could indicate a significant score change may be pending!
This has been requested by several dedicated EdgeFinder users, and I great appreciate the suggestions.
Have a wonderful weekend traders!
- Nick
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Gold 4H:
Huge pullback (just when everyone was saying it wouldnt! funny how that goes...)
I am sizing up trades to the long side.
Updates currently being shared with VIP members here. (40% off still for a bit longer)
Come trade with us and get in on the action!
All trades come with entries, exits, and full breakdowns. If you have any questions or need a payment plan, feel free to chat here
- Nick
Huge pullback (just when everyone was saying it wouldnt! funny how that goes...)
I am sizing up trades to the long side.
Updates currently being shared with VIP members here. (40% off still for a bit longer)
Come trade with us and get in on the action!
All trades come with entries, exits, and full breakdowns. If you have any questions or need a payment plan, feel free to chat here
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A central bank raising rates when inflation runs above target is acting to slow aggregate demand, not to directly lower the prices already reflected in the CPI basket.
A central bank raising rates when inflation runs above target is acting to slow aggregate demand, not to directly lower the prices already reflected in the CPI basket.
Anonymous Quiz
80%
True
20%
False
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Alan's Trade Alerts are now becoming a VIP member perk!
Now VIP members get to see trades from our veteran trades: Nick, Alan, Marko, Eivind, and Chris!
Because of this new addition, we are going to extend our VIP 40% off sale by 1 week, before prices go back to normal.
Sign up now to see all trade alerts, 40% off (limited time)
Now VIP members get to see trades from our veteran trades: Nick, Alan, Marko, Eivind, and Chris!
Because of this new addition, we are going to extend our VIP 40% off sale by 1 week, before prices go back to normal.
Sign up now to see all trade alerts, 40% off (limited time)
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Alan's Trade Alerts are now becoming a VIP member perk! Now VIP members get to see trades from our veteran trades: Nick, Alan, Marko, Eivind, and Chris! Because of this new addition, we are going to extend our VIP 40% off sale by 1 week, before prices go…
If you have questions about the service, would like to see examples, or are interested in pricing options, please chat with us here
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