US Oil Now Tests a Pivotal Level as US-Iran Strikes Resume
US oil is up 2.62% today, creeping into that level of resistance and the bearish trendline as fresh strikes in the US-Iran war escalate.
The US struck Iranian targets near Hormuz after detecting mine preparations, and Iran hit back at US facilities in Jordan. The US says it will retaliate on any aggression, so oil stays bid.
This is very consequential for markets across the board. If oil breaks above this trendline and resistance, and you see it back in the mid-90s for an extended period, that spooks the market on higher inflation and potentially higher rates.
So I'm watching oil at this very pivotal level. If it keeps chopping downward, that is good for the risk-on story. If it breaks out higher, it gets problematic. You could see a stronger dollar, gold under pressure, and equities under pressure too.
read the full article here.
— Alan
US oil is up 2.62% today, creeping into that level of resistance and the bearish trendline as fresh strikes in the US-Iran war escalate.
The US struck Iranian targets near Hormuz after detecting mine preparations, and Iran hit back at US facilities in Jordan. The US says it will retaliate on any aggression, so oil stays bid.
This is very consequential for markets across the board. If oil breaks above this trendline and resistance, and you see it back in the mid-90s for an extended period, that spooks the market on higher inflation and potentially higher rates.
So I'm watching oil at this very pivotal level. If it keeps chopping downward, that is good for the risk-on story. If it breaks out higher, it gets problematic. You could see a stronger dollar, gold under pressure, and equities under pressure too.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤10👍4
Gold Now Tests the 0.382 as Yields and Oil Climb
Gold is under pressure today for three main reasons. One, it is carrying Friday's surprisingly hawkish Warsh speech at Jackson Hole. Two, oil is higher today, which spooks inflation fears. Three, that feeds higher yields.
Gold, the non-yielding asset, does not like rising yields. Investors can rotate out of gold, which yields nothing, and park in safer assets like US bonds for the yield. So you have a rotation from gold into bonds right now.
But these are all fresh. In my personal opinion, the market is likely to fade what Warsh said, and gold gets bid back up.
What needs to happen is for the dust to settle. Gold is at the 0.382 retracement. A recovery here, with oil and yields lower, would make sense for gold higher. If oil and yields do not settle, gold falls further. As of now, oil and yields are bid which makes me hesitate.
Honestly, I'm receptive to deeper pullbacks. I am bullish on gold, and so is the EdgeFinder.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is under pressure today for three main reasons. One, it is carrying Friday's surprisingly hawkish Warsh speech at Jackson Hole. Two, oil is higher today, which spooks inflation fears. Three, that feeds higher yields.
Gold, the non-yielding asset, does not like rising yields. Investors can rotate out of gold, which yields nothing, and park in safer assets like US bonds for the yield. So you have a rotation from gold into bonds right now.
But these are all fresh. In my personal opinion, the market is likely to fade what Warsh said, and gold gets bid back up.
What needs to happen is for the dust to settle. Gold is at the 0.382 retracement. A recovery here, with oil and yields lower, would make sense for gold higher. If oil and yields do not settle, gold falls further. As of now, oil and yields are bid which makes me hesitate.
Honestly, I'm receptive to deeper pullbacks. I am bullish on gold, and so is the EdgeFinder.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍22❤10🫡1
EURUSD Daily Chart:
I am looking for long setups. I'm watching closely to see how price acts following Friday's surprise hawkish tone from Warsh.
Bullish due to lower inflation and weakening labor data in the U.S. We can't forget Friday's negative NFP yearly revisions.
The Fed wants to cut, but the macro data says otherwise.
I'm also seeing the short end of the curve (US 02Y) which tracks Fed policy, trading lower today, which tells me the market doesn't think the Fed will hike too much. CME Fedwatch also projects this.
I'd like to see the 38.2 fib level hold and for price to hold above the 200 Day SMA.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here. (40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
— Alan
I am looking for long setups. I'm watching closely to see how price acts following Friday's surprise hawkish tone from Warsh.
Bullish due to lower inflation and weakening labor data in the U.S. We can't forget Friday's negative NFP yearly revisions.
The Fed wants to cut, but the macro data says otherwise.
I'm also seeing the short end of the curve (US 02Y) which tracks Fed policy, trading lower today, which tells me the market doesn't think the Fed will hike too much. CME Fedwatch also projects this.
I'd like to see the 38.2 fib level hold and for price to hold above the 200 Day SMA.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here. (40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
— Alan
❤23👍3
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Using a fixed dollar risk amount per trade regardless of the asset's volatility results in consistent risk exposure across all positions.
Using a fixed dollar risk amount per trade regardless of the asset's volatility results in consistent risk exposure across all positions.
Anonymous Quiz
53%
True
47%
False
❤10👍2
Japanese Bond Yields Are Now Making Some Noise
The JGB story is something I knew was brewing in the background, but it seems like the market and I have put it to the side until today. The Japanese 10-year just crossed 3% for the first time since 1996.
Here is why this is tricky and vulnerable for the market. Japan's central bankers are trying to raise rates, and it seems like they are succeeding. So imagine you are a Japanese bank or pension fund holding a lot of foreign debt. Suddenly your own domestic bonds give you an attractive yield. What do you do? You pull money out of foreign assets, foreign bonds, foreign equities, and bring it home. To do that, you buy Japanese yen.
That creates an unwind effect in global markets. Money flows out of global assets and into yen and Japanese bonds. That could ruffle some feathers, especially with the US bond market already getting crushed and US yields moving higher.
Now the whole Japanese curve is exploding higher at once.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The JGB story is something I knew was brewing in the background, but it seems like the market and I have put it to the side until today. The Japanese 10-year just crossed 3% for the first time since 1996.
Here is why this is tricky and vulnerable for the market. Japan's central bankers are trying to raise rates, and it seems like they are succeeding. So imagine you are a Japanese bank or pension fund holding a lot of foreign debt. Suddenly your own domestic bonds give you an attractive yield. What do you do? You pull money out of foreign assets, foreign bonds, foreign equities, and bring it home. To do that, you buy Japanese yen.
That creates an unwind effect in global markets. Money flows out of global assets and into yen and Japanese bonds. That could ruffle some feathers, especially with the US bond market already getting crushed and US yields moving higher.
Now the whole Japanese curve is exploding higher at once.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍16❤9👀4
Gold Daily Chart
Gold is bleeding today... But the big question is: Is this a buyable dip or is something bigger happening here?
The flare up in global bond yields, oil prices, and Kevin Warsh's surprisingly hawkish comments from Jackson Hole really brought some questions surrounding the integrity of Gold's upward trend.
There's a couple of things I'm looking for that'll give me the confidence in buying this monster drop. Specifically the follow through in global yields, oil prices, and sentiment indicators.
Ideally, I want to be a buyer into peak fear, but I must also not ignore fundamental changes that could complicate the trend.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here
(40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
— Alan
Gold is bleeding today... But the big question is: Is this a buyable dip or is something bigger happening here?
The flare up in global bond yields, oil prices, and Kevin Warsh's surprisingly hawkish comments from Jackson Hole really brought some questions surrounding the integrity of Gold's upward trend.
There's a couple of things I'm looking for that'll give me the confidence in buying this monster drop. Specifically the follow through in global yields, oil prices, and sentiment indicators.
Ideally, I want to be a buyer into peak fear, but I must also not ignore fundamental changes that could complicate the trend.
If you want to get notified when a take my next trade, join here
(40% off ends soon)
Need a payment plan? Chat with support
— Alan
❤27👍12🔥5
My gold gameplan:
Watching as price pulls back here. I generally am a believer that the gold rally can broadly continue.
Weak jobs data recently, softer than expected economic growth, and a mixed inflation read support a interest rate hold in my view.
I will be taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP service.
If you're interested in joining but have questions or would like some details on our payment plan option, please feel free to chat here
- Nick
Watching as price pulls back here. I generally am a believer that the gold rally can broadly continue.
Weak jobs data recently, softer than expected economic growth, and a mixed inflation read support a interest rate hold in my view.
I will be taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP service.
If you're interested in joining but have questions or would like some details on our payment plan option, please feel free to chat here
- Nick
❤36👍6🫡4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A trader loses 25% of account equity. Why does this create a disproportionately larger challenge for recovery compared to the size of the original loss?
A trader loses 25% of account equity. Why does this create a disproportionately larger challenge for recovery compared to the size of the original loss?
Anonymous Quiz
15%
Recovery always requires the same % gain as was lost — gains and losses are symmetric
8%
Only creates a challenge if the same losing strategy continues being used
69%
Smaller remaining capital base means recovery requires a larger % gain than was lost
8%
Disproportionate recovery only applies to losses exceeding 50% of equity
❤10🫡5👍1
Gold Daily Chart:
Price showing a bit of resilience here at the 50% retracement zone.
Macro wise, I still think the bull case holds. Weaker economic data than forecasts had expected, jobs data soft this week ahead of NFP, and an administration committed to trying to keep long term bond yields down are a solid bull case in my view.
I am taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP group. Our 40% off sale ends Friday!
If you have any questions about the group, would like to explore it, etc, please chat here
- Nick
Price showing a bit of resilience here at the 50% retracement zone.
Macro wise, I still think the bull case holds. Weaker economic data than forecasts had expected, jobs data soft this week ahead of NFP, and an administration committed to trying to keep long term bond yields down are a solid bull case in my view.
I am taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP group. Our 40% off sale ends Friday!
If you have any questions about the group, would like to explore it, etc, please chat here
- Nick
❤24🫡6👍3
USDJPY Flirts With the 200-Day After Suspected Intervention
We can't ignore the elephant in the room today. The Japanese yen is again making headlines as it strengthens across the board.
Some are saying it was a rate check while others say intervention. It could also be a bond transfer. No one really knows, and it likely won't get confirmed until next business day when FX activity reports get published. But there was an oddly large candle on the M1 timeframe, and that usually coincides with some kind of artificial market manipulation.
What's interesting is USDJPY is flirting with the 200-day, which has been strong support. If you somehow overcome it to the downside, you likely see continued weakness toward 156, 157, 155, and lower.
I am really receptive to dollar yen getting a deep discount, because I want to be a long-term buyer and start accumulating. But right now is not a good place to build as the cost basis would be too high.
read the full article here.
— Alan
We can't ignore the elephant in the room today. The Japanese yen is again making headlines as it strengthens across the board.
Some are saying it was a rate check while others say intervention. It could also be a bond transfer. No one really knows, and it likely won't get confirmed until next business day when FX activity reports get published. But there was an oddly large candle on the M1 timeframe, and that usually coincides with some kind of artificial market manipulation.
What's interesting is USDJPY is flirting with the 200-day, which has been strong support. If you somehow overcome it to the downside, you likely see continued weakness toward 156, 157, 155, and lower.
I am really receptive to dollar yen getting a deep discount, because I want to be a long-term buyer and start accumulating. But right now is not a good place to build as the cost basis would be too high.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍15❤10
USDCAD Daily Chart
USD/CAD is looking quite nice here, as it's respecting the 38.2% fib and level of resistance.
And from a macro prospective: Bank of Canada came out with hawkish commentary following their rate decision this morning, which could fuel the downside move.
One must not ignore NFP this Friday. NFP could either refuel the trend lower or crush the idea. Nonetheless, I'm bearish on the pair for now.
I am taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP group. Our 40% off sale ends Friday!
If you have any questions about the group, would like to explore it, etc, please chat here
— Alan
USD/CAD is looking quite nice here, as it's respecting the 38.2% fib and level of resistance.
And from a macro prospective: Bank of Canada came out with hawkish commentary following their rate decision this morning, which could fuel the downside move.
One must not ignore NFP this Friday. NFP could either refuel the trend lower or crush the idea. Nonetheless, I'm bearish on the pair for now.
I am taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP group. Our 40% off sale ends Friday!
If you have any questions about the group, would like to explore it, etc, please chat here
— Alan
👍17❤9👀3
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When you deposit qualifying amounts with eightcap*
Here’s how you can unlock access:
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💰 Deposit $5,000 – 1 Year VIP Membership + StockBox
💰 Deposit $10,000 – Gold VIP Membership + EdgeFinder
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❤9
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Point of Control (POC) on a volume profile represents the price level where the least amount of trading activity occurred during the session.
The Point of Control (POC) on a volume profile represents the price level where the least amount of trading activity occurred during the session.
Anonymous Quiz
31%
True
69%
False
❤6👍6
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US Oil Now Clears the Trendline That Capped It All War
Global yields are lower, but do not ignore the oil chart. It's breaking out and is making significant progress to the upside.
I say it's problematic. Yields are lower today, but if oil stays sticky above this resistance at 84 and hovers in the mid-90s, inflation fears come right back into the picture.
We are seeing broader dollar weakness today, most likely due to the JPY intervention. But do not forget this chart. It is very influential. And when the dust settles in the Japanese yen, because it eventually will given the carry-trade dynamics, what happens to the dollar then?
For the record, I'm bearish the Dollar. I'd like to see Oil calm down, and I think it may. But, if you see it sustain the mid 90's, then it clouds my view.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Global yields are lower, but do not ignore the oil chart. It's breaking out and is making significant progress to the upside.
I say it's problematic. Yields are lower today, but if oil stays sticky above this resistance at 84 and hovers in the mid-90s, inflation fears come right back into the picture.
We are seeing broader dollar weakness today, most likely due to the JPY intervention. But do not forget this chart. It is very influential. And when the dust settles in the Japanese yen, because it eventually will given the carry-trade dynamics, what happens to the dollar then?
For the record, I'm bearish the Dollar. I'd like to see Oil calm down, and I think it may. But, if you see it sustain the mid 90's, then it clouds my view.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤14👍3
USDJPY Daily Chart
I'm really liking this pullback. I've been waiting on it ever since we had Yen intervention chatter.
There's two scenarios I see in the short-term:
1. Strong NFP + Oil remains bid = USD/JPY dip gets bought around 155.5
2. Weaker NFP = Fed likely stays neutral, in that case Yen strength continues to shine through and you see further dips.
Nonetheless I'm looking to get active here despite what happens.
I am taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP group. Our 40% off sale ends Friday!
If you have any questions about the group, would like to explore it, etc, please chat here
— Alan
I'm really liking this pullback. I've been waiting on it ever since we had Yen intervention chatter.
There's two scenarios I see in the short-term:
1. Strong NFP + Oil remains bid = USD/JPY dip gets bought around 155.5
2. Weaker NFP = Fed likely stays neutral, in that case Yen strength continues to shine through and you see further dips.
Nonetheless I'm looking to get active here despite what happens.
I am taking trades / sharing updates in our VIP group. Our 40% off sale ends Friday!
If you have any questions about the group, would like to explore it, etc, please chat here
— Alan
❤19👍3😍1
Gold is absolutely ripping! 📈
Took me a few tries, but fortunately was able to catch the right entry 🙂
Congrats to any who are also riding this. All of my trades and updates are being shared in VIP here (40% off memberships ends tomorrow)
- Nick
Took me a few tries, but fortunately was able to catch the right entry 🙂
Congrats to any who are also riding this. All of my trades and updates are being shared in VIP here (40% off memberships ends tomorrow)
- Nick
❤38🔥20🫡8