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πŸ”” Closing Bell - Question of the Day

When the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day, this pattern is called:
Anonymous Quiz
15%
Death cross β€” the start of a bearish trend
22%
Bullish divergence β€” momentum outpacing price
63%
Golden cross β€” often viewed as a bullish long-term signal
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Gold daily chart:

NFP was a big beat, which temporarily spiked the dollar.

Gold bulls are holding up decently well though, rebounding intraday nicely.

The recent 1-2 month uptrend still remains largely intact, and I think attention is now set squarely on next weeks inflation prints (CPI & PPI on Thursday and Friday)

I remain long for now!

If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.

- Nick
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Macro summary for gold:
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DXY Fails to Hold a Stellar Jobs Report Pop

The dollar popped this morning off a stellar jobs number, 162k versus 56k expected. Oddly enough, it was not enough for the dollar to follow through.

Why? My speculation is the market is now eyeing inflation more than ever. Reflect back a couple weeks: Warsh was very hawkish at Jackson Hole, saying inflation was running too hot. Then yesterday Waller, another hawk, said he would hold rates if inflation keeps cooling. So the hawks are turning neutral to dovish, and the market is holding onto the idea that inflation is truly trending lower.

Notice oil is elevated in the 90s but lower today, and yields popped then faded. So the great jobs print jumped September hike odds toward 59%, but it may not stay.

From a price action prespective: DXY tapped previous support turned resistance and is back below the 200-day.

read the full article here.

β€” Alan
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AUD/USD Daily Chart

Aussie has been chugging higher for some time now, but I'm especially liking how relatively strong it was during USD's pop this morning.

I'm looking at opening some exposure in Aussie. Whether it be AUD/USD or starting a long campaign across multiple trades with the Aussie basket.

If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.

β€” Alan
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AUDUSD long signal ripping πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ”” Closing Bell - Question of the Day

ATR indicates the direction of an asset's trend.
Anonymous Quiz
39%
True
61%
False
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Gold Daily Chart outlook:

Could it really be this simple? If inflation is hotter than expected (expected number is ~3.4% YoY), we very well could see the fed take action to hike rates. This would in turn spike the dollar, sending gold lower (we could see a downtrend towards 4200 an oz in this scenario).

But - if inflation stays in line with expectations, or cooler than them, I generally see a more bullish outlook for gold.

I personally have long exposure, but will adjust accordingly based on what happens this week.

- Nick
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EdgeFinder output for gold currently:

- Macro / fundamentals look decently supportive. Jobs data mixed / cooling, while economic growth was softer than expected. This suggests a possible weakness in the US dollar.
- Technicals a bit soft: seasonally gold is a bit bearish in September, and recent price action has been weak.

I am keeping an eye on it!

- Nick
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VIP signal update on AUD/USD:
- I am trailing the stoploss for the 50% of the position that is still running.
- New stoploss level is 0.71381.

- Marko
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AUDNZD VIP signal update:

- Great reaction so far but I am thinking this can go up even more. Especially with so many rate hikes priced in for RBNZ that won't happen imo. Unemployment is too high.
- New stoploss is at 1.214

- Marko
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AUD/NZD... πŸ‘€
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- Nick
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US Oil, Daily Chart:

This chart is super important to keep an eye on this week. If we see significant push higher, it could continue to put pressure on yields and drive inflation expectations higher.

That leans bearish for gold, and bullish for dollar/yields.

My personal opinion: I think there is limited upside in the short term for oil. I am neutral to slightly bearish.

I think the US administration will keep things as quiet as possible ahead of midterm elections, and may continue to reassure as much as possible on the oil shortage narrative.

Demand side also looks a bit soft (cooler than expected jobs, slower than expected economic growth, neutral inflation. I'll attach an EdgeFinder screenshot momentarily)

- Nick
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