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Stops trailed in VIP.
Get our trades when we take them, sent with full details, breakdowns, and explanations.
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Get our trades when we take them, sent with full details, breakdowns, and explanations.
See our trades here
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Gold Popped on Cooler PCE, Then Faded
PCE this morning came in cooler than expected, and we saw a brief pop in gold and silver. But as the day progressed, both started to trade lower.
Here is why: You have to take the net outcome of today. Yes, core PCE cooled to 3.0%. But GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, and ADP came in strong at 90k. Cooler inflation, but a hotter economy. Put it together and the net is bearish for metals, because strong growth keeps the Fed's tightening case alive even with softer inflation.
Price traded back up into previous support turned resistance near 4,240 and got rejected. I foresee prices continue to drift lower. The next hurdle is Friday's NFP. Strong jobs would mean Gold continues lower. Cooler jobs and I'd imagine you probably get a pop. But the story for metals is to the downside for now. EdgeFinder is bearish and so I tend to stay with that bias.
read the full article here.
— Alan
PCE this morning came in cooler than expected, and we saw a brief pop in gold and silver. But as the day progressed, both started to trade lower.
Here is why: You have to take the net outcome of today. Yes, core PCE cooled to 3.0%. But GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, and ADP came in strong at 90k. Cooler inflation, but a hotter economy. Put it together and the net is bearish for metals, because strong growth keeps the Fed's tightening case alive even with softer inflation.
Price traded back up into previous support turned resistance near 4,240 and got rejected. I foresee prices continue to drift lower. The next hurdle is Friday's NFP. Strong jobs would mean Gold continues lower. Cooler jobs and I'd imagine you probably get a pop. But the story for metals is to the downside for now. EdgeFinder is bearish and so I tend to stay with that bias.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Silver Trade Update
Trimming exposure behind previous structure.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Trimming exposure behind previous structure.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
During sharp risk-off episodes, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have historically tended to strengthen.
During sharp risk-off episodes, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have historically tended to strengthen.
Anonymous Quiz
32%
False — they weaken in risk-off since both economies rely on export demand
68%
True — both are backed by current account surpluses and attract capital seeking safety
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• Three distinct paths: Pro, Flex, and Direct (25K to 150K)
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Euro's Problem Flipped: Higher Yields Are Now a Growth Threat
Traders are turning their most bearish on the euro since March. Demand for options to hedge against another euro drop surged today, and EUR/USD hit a 17-month low at 1.1236.
The usual rule is higher yields mean a stronger currency. But the market has flipped that for the euro. It is no longer looking at higher eurozone yields as support, it is worried those yields stun growth. That is the worst-case scenario, and it is likely causing this big drop.
The eurozone is hit harder than the US because it imports its energy while the US exports, so high oil hurts it more. German unemployment stayed elevated at 6.4%. French debt is at 14-year highs on fiscal worries. Traders are also trimming ECB bets, no longer pricing three more hikes.
Growth risk has hung over the euro for a while. Despite the ECB hiking early, growth is the concern. Price is on the 1.1200 to 1.1250 support.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Traders are turning their most bearish on the euro since March. Demand for options to hedge against another euro drop surged today, and EUR/USD hit a 17-month low at 1.1236.
The usual rule is higher yields mean a stronger currency. But the market has flipped that for the euro. It is no longer looking at higher eurozone yields as support, it is worried those yields stun growth. That is the worst-case scenario, and it is likely causing this big drop.
The eurozone is hit harder than the US because it imports its energy while the US exports, so high oil hurts it more. German unemployment stayed elevated at 6.4%. French debt is at 14-year highs on fiscal worries. Traders are also trimming ECB bets, no longer pricing three more hikes.
Growth risk has hung over the euro for a while. Despite the ECB hiking early, growth is the concern. Price is on the 1.1200 to 1.1250 support.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold Daily Chart
Here I am on the sidelines of Gold shorts... though tomorrow lies a big day!
NFP is notorious for crazy whipsaws, so I welcome the volatility as it may give me an entry for Gold shorts.
Although I like the trade, I personally would not short here. I'd much rather wait for a revisit into the $4,240 level of resistance.
I'll notify you guys in the discord if I take the trade along with my levels.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Here I am on the sidelines of Gold shorts... though tomorrow lies a big day!
NFP is notorious for crazy whipsaws, so I welcome the volatility as it may give me an entry for Gold shorts.
Although I like the trade, I personally would not short here. I'd much rather wait for a revisit into the $4,240 level of resistance.
I'll notify you guys in the discord if I take the trade along with my levels.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
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Gold short trade still running, but I've tightened my stop a bit further into profit.
Trend still seems bearish for the time being.
Will continue to update any new trades in the VIP group.
- Nick
Trend still seems bearish for the time being.
Will continue to update any new trades in the VIP group.
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Oil prices spike sharply. Which sector is likely to be hit the least?
Oil prices spike sharply. Which sector is likely to be hit the least?
Anonymous Quiz
10%
Airlines
13%
Transport
19%
Cruise lines
59%
Energy producers
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When you deposit qualifying amounts with eightcap*
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❤7
EUR/USD Now Bounces but the Rally Is Capped
Taking another look at the euro, because it could be giving a neat short-term opportunity. NFP today came in way weaker, 29K vs 90K expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. That is bearish for the dollar, so EUR/USD consequentially is trading higher.
Yields fell right after the release, but they are already fading it and trading back up. And there is a double whammy of euro positives today: weak US jobs plus hot eurozone inflation at 3.8%, which pressures the ECB to stay tight.
Yet the euro is only bouncing modestly. That tells you the stagflation and energy fear is still capping it. Reports suggest the EU may start releasing oil reserves, but that takes time.
Remember I wanted a break of the big 1.1350 support and a retest. We are getting the retest now, into the 0.382 fib. But I need the growth concerns to actually confirm. Euro PMIs Monday will give me the confidence to short or stay on the sidelines.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Taking another look at the euro, because it could be giving a neat short-term opportunity. NFP today came in way weaker, 29K vs 90K expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. That is bearish for the dollar, so EUR/USD consequentially is trading higher.
Yields fell right after the release, but they are already fading it and trading back up. And there is a double whammy of euro positives today: weak US jobs plus hot eurozone inflation at 3.8%, which pressures the ECB to stay tight.
Yet the euro is only bouncing modestly. That tells you the stagflation and energy fear is still capping it. Reports suggest the EU may start releasing oil reserves, but that takes time.
Remember I wanted a break of the big 1.1350 support and a retest. We are getting the retest now, into the 0.382 fib. But I need the growth concerns to actually confirm. Euro PMIs Monday will give me the confidence to short or stay on the sidelines.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold 1 Hour Chart
What a crazy NFP day... 😳 This morning's Gold signal is off to the races.
Was not expecting this type of follow-through so soon if I'm being honest.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
What a crazy NFP day... 😳 This morning's Gold signal is off to the races.
Was not expecting this type of follow-through so soon if I'm being honest.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
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Shoutout Alan for also catching the move in VIP!
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Why Trading Is So Hard?
NFP came in way cooler than expected. 29K jobs vs 90K forecast, unemployment up to 4.2%. Textbook dovish. And right on cue, the US 10-year yield dropped.
Then something I definitely was expecting happened. Over the next hour, the 10-year swallowed the entire move and climbed back above where it started. The "obvious" move started to reverse.
So why?
Here is my read on it. The bond market looked at that number and said "not so fast." A weak jobs print tells you something about the Fed's rate path, which lives in the 2-year. But the 10-year is not really trading the Fed right now. It is trading the deficit, the flood of Treasury issuance, and sticky inflation. One bad jobs number does not fix any of those. If anything, a softer economy with the same borrowing needs makes the supply problem worse.
So the front end can price fewer hikes while the long end refuses to rally. The hikes probably are not cancelled either. They are just deferred.
— Alan
NFP came in way cooler than expected. 29K jobs vs 90K forecast, unemployment up to 4.2%. Textbook dovish. And right on cue, the US 10-year yield dropped.
Then something I definitely was expecting happened. Over the next hour, the 10-year swallowed the entire move and climbed back above where it started. The "obvious" move started to reverse.
So why?
Here is my read on it. The bond market looked at that number and said "not so fast." A weak jobs print tells you something about the Fed's rate path, which lives in the 2-year. But the 10-year is not really trading the Fed right now. It is trading the deficit, the flood of Treasury issuance, and sticky inflation. One bad jobs number does not fix any of those. If anything, a softer economy with the same borrowing needs makes the supply problem worse.
So the front end can price fewer hikes while the long end refuses to rally. The hikes probably are not cancelled either. They are just deferred.
— Alan
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Please note, this offer is first come first serve! We only have a few accounts to give away.
We're handing out 10 free Top One Futures 50K eval accounts with a purchase of any of our products!
(90% profit split, no consistency rule, 5 day payouts!)
Get a free 50k eval account with your EdgeFinder, VIP membership, or StockBox purchase!
How to claim yours:
- Message our team here, letting them know you are interested in hearing more: https://bit.ly/4ufx8VG
- Purchase any of our products and earn (up to 3) 50k evaluation accounts!
Please note, this offer is first come first serve! We only have a few accounts to give away.
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