🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Rising inflation expectations tend to push bond yields up and bond prices down.
Rising inflation expectations tend to push bond yields up and bond prices down.
Anonymous Quiz
77%
True, because investors demand higher yields to offset lost purchasing power
23%
False, because inflation makes existing bonds more valuable
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Euro Now Rejects Friday's Retest and Falls to 1.1200 Support
The euro is getting another headwind today. France is in crisis, with riots across roughly 400 schools, hundreds of arrests, and a government fighting over its budget.
That uncertainty in the eurozone's second-biggest economy is weighing on the currency, and the French-German bond spread blew past 150bp, the widest since the last euro debt crisis.
Compare this to Friday. On Friday the euro was bouncing into the retest of broken support. However, France drove it straight through that zone and down to 1.1200.
Price is now sitting on a major demand shelf at 1.1200 that held the April and May lows. This is a big structural floor, and the move into it looks overextended. With Friday's weak US jobs still in play, I am not shorting blindly into this. I'm either waiting for another worthy pullback or break & retest.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The euro is getting another headwind today. France is in crisis, with riots across roughly 400 schools, hundreds of arrests, and a government fighting over its budget.
That uncertainty in the eurozone's second-biggest economy is weighing on the currency, and the French-German bond spread blew past 150bp, the widest since the last euro debt crisis.
Compare this to Friday. On Friday the euro was bouncing into the retest of broken support. However, France drove it straight through that zone and down to 1.1200.
Price is now sitting on a major demand shelf at 1.1200 that held the April and May lows. This is a big structural floor, and the move into it looks overextended. With Friday's weak US jobs still in play, I am not shorting blindly into this. I'm either waiting for another worthy pullback or break & retest.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USD/CAD Daily Chart
One of my favorite setups for a USD continuation play. USD/CAD's upward trend is a rare example of how charts can move linear sometimes.
I'm looking to enter this position on a pullback into previous resistance turned support. Note: we have not retested the level once since the breakout.
I personally believe that US rates would stay higher for longer as a base case, and potentially see 1-2 more hikes as long as the Middle East war stays unresolved.
The EdgeFinder is also bullish on USD/CAD +5, despite the recent softer-than-expected data releases.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
One of my favorite setups for a USD continuation play. USD/CAD's upward trend is a rare example of how charts can move linear sometimes.
I'm looking to enter this position on a pullback into previous resistance turned support. Note: we have not retested the level once since the breakout.
I personally believe that US rates would stay higher for longer as a base case, and potentially see 1-2 more hikes as long as the Middle East war stays unresolved.
The EdgeFinder is also bullish on USD/CAD +5, despite the recent softer-than-expected data releases.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
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Gold 4H chart:
Will gold take the plunge to 4000?
I am still holding shorts. Price looks to be pushing back down to the weekly low - if we break through 4100, I think there is a strong chance of a plunge down to 4000.
All position updates + new trades will be shared here.
- Nick
Will gold take the plunge to 4000?
I am still holding shorts. Price looks to be pushing back down to the weekly low - if we break through 4100, I think there is a strong chance of a plunge down to 4000.
All position updates + new trades will be shared here.
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Expectations of lower interest rates tend to support gold, since the opportunity cost of holding it falls.
Expectations of lower interest rates tend to support gold, since the opportunity cost of holding it falls.
Anonymous Quiz
88%
True, because lower yields make a non-yielding asset more attractive
12%
False, because gold only responds to inflation, never to rates
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US Yields: Why Lower Oil Isn't Enough to Cool Them
Treasury yields are cooling today as oil trades lower, down about 3.5% intra-week. The 10-year is at 5.27%, off yesterday's 5.31%, which was the highest since 2002.
Nick and Merilee's livestream segment this morning shed light on an important question: is lower oil enough to keep yields down? They said, and I agree, that they don't think so, because so much more is baked into the price.
We cannot deny the Middle East contributed to higher yields. But look at everything else driving them. Rising US debt. Lack of confidence in the Fed and Treasury. Diminishing demand for the 10 and 30-year. Japan, one of our biggest bond customers, offloading US debt to prop up the yen, looking out for itself. And the risk in the AI trade.
That is a lot of weight. So unless you see a lot of headwinds for yields, not just one, I think yields continue to trend higher.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Treasury yields are cooling today as oil trades lower, down about 3.5% intra-week. The 10-year is at 5.27%, off yesterday's 5.31%, which was the highest since 2002.
Nick and Merilee's livestream segment this morning shed light on an important question: is lower oil enough to keep yields down? They said, and I agree, that they don't think so, because so much more is baked into the price.
We cannot deny the Middle East contributed to higher yields. But look at everything else driving them. Rising US debt. Lack of confidence in the Fed and Treasury. Diminishing demand for the 10 and 30-year. Japan, one of our biggest bond customers, offloading US debt to prop up the yen, looking out for itself. And the risk in the AI trade.
That is a lot of weight. So unless you see a lot of headwinds for yields, not just one, I think yields continue to trend higher.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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EUR/USD Daily Chart
With Eurozone headwinds still in play, EUR/USD looks like a great short given we see a pullback.
The risk-reward profile doesn't look good at current price, so I'd really need to see a pullback into the 1.13220 zone and sellers defend the level.
Also, EdgeFinder would need to print bearish again. Nonetheless, I'm going to follow the DXY upward trend until it gives out.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
With Eurozone headwinds still in play, EUR/USD looks like a great short given we see a pullback.
The risk-reward profile doesn't look good at current price, so I'd really need to see a pullback into the 1.13220 zone and sellers defend the level.
Also, EdgeFinder would need to print bearish again. Nonetheless, I'm going to follow the DXY upward trend until it gives out.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Fed leans on core inflation because food and energy prices are volatile and can distort the underlying trend
The Fed leans on core inflation because food and energy prices are volatile and can distort the underlying trend
Anonymous Quiz
18%
False, because the Fed ignores core and targets headline only
82%
True, because stripping them out gives a steadier read on inflation momentum
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Gold signal in our VIP group is absolutely minting today 🤝
What a drop! Stops being trailed now and updates being sent to members here
What a drop! Stops being trailed now and updates being sent to members here
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Gold Breaks Key Shelf Going Into Fed Minutes
We've watched gold hold a range for some days, roughly 4,220 resistance down to the 4,120 shelf. On October 5 we got a quick poke below that shelf, buyers stepped in fast, and price went right back to range-bound.
However, this morning gold broke the 4,120 shelf with conviction and kept sliding. We're down about 1.5% as of typing, and this is before the FOMC minutes hit at 2pm EST.
Me personally, I thought gold would hold this range into the minutes, then pick a direction once the market read where the Fed sits.
I'm positioned bearish on the metals, watching for longer-term support near the 4,000 handle. The market still prices at least one more hike this year, which keeps pressure on a non-yielding asset while money runs to the dollar. Yields and the dollar are both green today, and that's the weight on gold.
We'll see what the minutes do. I'm NOT looking to add to my position. Simply letting it ride from here.
read the full article here.
— Alan
We've watched gold hold a range for some days, roughly 4,220 resistance down to the 4,120 shelf. On October 5 we got a quick poke below that shelf, buyers stepped in fast, and price went right back to range-bound.
However, this morning gold broke the 4,120 shelf with conviction and kept sliding. We're down about 1.5% as of typing, and this is before the FOMC minutes hit at 2pm EST.
Me personally, I thought gold would hold this range into the minutes, then pick a direction once the market read where the Fed sits.
I'm positioned bearish on the metals, watching for longer-term support near the 4,000 handle. The market still prices at least one more hike this year, which keeps pressure on a non-yielding asset while money runs to the dollar. Yields and the dollar are both green today, and that's the weight on gold.
We'll see what the minutes do. I'm NOT looking to add to my position. Simply letting it ride from here.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold vs. Yields:
Here's gold plotted against the dollar and the 10-year yield. Gold is down; however, the dollar and yields are both near their highs for the year.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the US. Higher yields raise the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. Due to this dynamic, gold is facing clear headwinds.
However, gold didn't trade this way earlier in 2026. Gold was on a monster tear, as the big question markets asked was "How many rate cuts are we getting this year?"
Now, markets are on the complete other side of the spectrum, asking "How many rate hikes are we getting?"
As long as yields keep grinding higher and the dollar holds firm, gold stays under pressure.
Here's gold plotted against the dollar and the 10-year yield. Gold is down; however, the dollar and yields are both near their highs for the year.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the US. Higher yields raise the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. Due to this dynamic, gold is facing clear headwinds.
However, gold didn't trade this way earlier in 2026. Gold was on a monster tear, as the big question markets asked was "How many rate cuts are we getting this year?"
Now, markets are on the complete other side of the spectrum, asking "How many rate hikes are we getting?"
As long as yields keep grinding higher and the dollar holds firm, gold stays under pressure.
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Russell VIP signal update:
Trimming my stop going into Fed Minutes.
Looking for a flush and hold below the 200 Day SMA and support shelf at $2,800
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
Trimming my stop going into Fed Minutes.
Looking for a flush and hold below the 200 Day SMA and support shelf at $2,800
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
❤22
All 19 officials backed the September hike. Most participants see another hike this year as likely appropriate, and almost all view inflation risks tilted to the upside.
They called the job market broadly balanced. A weak labor market is the usual reason to hold, and they don't see one.
A few said current rates aren't restrictive enough yet. Meaning there may be room for at least one more like.
Note: these minutes are from September 16, before the softer data that followed. So the market may shrug. But on their own terms, they point to one more hike this year.
They called the job market broadly balanced. A weak labor market is the usual reason to hold, and they don't see one.
A few said current rates aren't restrictive enough yet. Meaning there may be room for at least one more like.
Note: these minutes are from September 16, before the softer data that followed. So the market may shrug. But on their own terms, they point to one more hike this year.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A long position in a higher-yielding currency earns a net gain if spot is unchanged, ignoring fees.
A long position in a higher-yielding currency earns a net gain if spot is unchanged, ignoring fees.
Anonymous Quiz
66%
True
34%
False
❤16
Russell Leads Market Lower on Hawkish Fed Minutes
Yesterday the Russell cleared two key levels at once. It broke below 2,800 support, which now flips to resistance, and it closed below the 200-day moving average. The Russell is leading on the way down as it's the only major index under its 200-day right now.
Price has also respected the bearish trendline off the August high. It tapped that line in early October, rolled over, and now sits well below it.
Small caps feel higher rates more than anyone. More debt, more floating-rate debt, so climbing yields bite straight into thin margins. Yesterday's FOMC minutes came in hawkish, with most officials expecting one more hike this year. Oil is up about 4% today and yields are higher, with the 2-year jumping. As long as the bond market and oil keep pricing more tightening, the Russell stays under pressure. The next level of support I'm eyeing is 2,700.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Yesterday the Russell cleared two key levels at once. It broke below 2,800 support, which now flips to resistance, and it closed below the 200-day moving average. The Russell is leading on the way down as it's the only major index under its 200-day right now.
Price has also respected the bearish trendline off the August high. It tapped that line in early October, rolled over, and now sits well below it.
Small caps feel higher rates more than anyone. More debt, more floating-rate debt, so climbing yields bite straight into thin margins. Yesterday's FOMC minutes came in hawkish, with most officials expecting one more hike this year. Oil is up about 4% today and yields are higher, with the 2-year jumping. As long as the bond market and oil keep pricing more tightening, the Russell stays under pressure. The next level of support I'm eyeing is 2,700.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Oil Daily Chart
Looks like a clean idea, however I'd like to short at higher prices, preferably near the recent top end at ~104.
I've also been consistently reading on how most of the Strait dependance has been replaced.
This has been done by alternative sourcing, production, and transportation.
A possible demand cooldown could also be another headwind for Oil.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
Looks like a clean idea, however I'd like to short at higher prices, preferably near the recent top end at ~104.
I've also been consistently reading on how most of the Strait dependance has been replaced.
This has been done by alternative sourcing, production, and transportation.
A possible demand cooldown could also be another headwind for Oil.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
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