Dollar Softens Near Term but the Bull Case Still Holds
I’m still bullish on the dollar over the medium to longer term.
Inflation is elevated and trending higher after last week’s two hot prints, CPI and PPI, and that keeps more rate hikes on the table. More hikes are fuel for the dollar.
Near term is a different story. Growth concerns are pressuring it lower, and with an October hike now unlikely. Price pulled back from its 102.9 highs into support where it sits now. The question is whether old resistance flips to support here, or whether we flush toward 100 next.
I’m watching this pullback for buyers. If the environment still makes sense, with hikes on the horizon, I want to go long the dollar from a better level. The risk to that: if growth really winds down, the dollar keeps bleeding.
EdgeFinder is neutral, so there's no need to rush into a trade. I’m watching earnings for the next read on growth.
read the full article here.
— Alan
I’m still bullish on the dollar over the medium to longer term.
Inflation is elevated and trending higher after last week’s two hot prints, CPI and PPI, and that keeps more rate hikes on the table. More hikes are fuel for the dollar.
Near term is a different story. Growth concerns are pressuring it lower, and with an October hike now unlikely. Price pulled back from its 102.9 highs into support where it sits now. The question is whether old resistance flips to support here, or whether we flush toward 100 next.
I’m watching this pullback for buyers. If the environment still makes sense, with hikes on the horizon, I want to go long the dollar from a better level. The risk to that: if growth really winds down, the dollar keeps bleeding.
EdgeFinder is neutral, so there's no need to rush into a trade. I’m watching earnings for the next read on growth.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USD/CAD Trade Idea
Am looking for potential long setups on USD/CAD near the 61.8% fib level. The upward trend has been strong with little signs of relief.
I'm medium-to-long term bullish on DXY assuming intact growth and elevated inflation.
On the other side, weak Canadian employment data has paused rate hike expectations.
EdgeFinder isn't giving me a bullish reading as of yet, so I'm on the sidelines for now.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here (https://a1trading.com/vip/tgvip/)!
— Alan
Am looking for potential long setups on USD/CAD near the 61.8% fib level. The upward trend has been strong with little signs of relief.
I'm medium-to-long term bullish on DXY assuming intact growth and elevated inflation.
On the other side, weak Canadian employment data has paused rate hike expectations.
EdgeFinder isn't giving me a bullish reading as of yet, so I'm on the sidelines for now.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here (https://a1trading.com/vip/tgvip/)!
— Alan
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Marko's latest USDCAD trade 🔥 Running at 2.8R.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
In a liquidity crisis, correlations across risk assets often drift toward what?
In a liquidity crisis, correlations across risk assets often drift toward what?
Anonymous Quiz
44%
1, since forced selling hits everything at once and diversification weakens
12%
0, since crises reset relationships between assets
31%
-1, since investors rotate out of one asset into another
13%
2, since crises amplify the effect
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How One Stock Can Affect Your Favorite Assets
Meta reports after the close, and it's set to provide clues on the AI trade. The market currently has a big worry: Has AI spending been overpriced? Growth and capex concerns are stacking up, and last week gave us a flash of an unwind, when the Nasdaq, Kospi, and semis sold off together.
If Meta signals lower spending expectations tonight, that’s a negative feedback loop for hyperscalers. A miss likely spreads. Nasdaq lower, crypto lower, risk-off across the board.
The flight to safety is the part to watch. Money rotates out of risk. Bonds get bid, yields fall, and gold catches a safe-haven bid.
The options crowd is bullish going into tonight, and rightfully so. This year bulls have stepped in to buy every tech dip.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Meta reports after the close, and it's set to provide clues on the AI trade. The market currently has a big worry: Has AI spending been overpriced? Growth and capex concerns are stacking up, and last week gave us a flash of an unwind, when the Nasdaq, Kospi, and semis sold off together.
If Meta signals lower spending expectations tonight, that’s a negative feedback loop for hyperscalers. A miss likely spreads. Nasdaq lower, crypto lower, risk-off across the board.
The flight to safety is the part to watch. Money rotates out of risk. Bonds get bid, yields fall, and gold catches a safe-haven bid.
The options crowd is bullish going into tonight, and rightfully so. This year bulls have stepped in to buy every tech dip.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold Daily Chart
Gold has been chopping around for 23 days.. Though I'd like to think it can revive itself sometime soon.
I mentioned in my previous markup that an AI trade unwind could fuel gold as investors flock to safety.
Last Friday we saw an example of that. Gold rallied on AI fears even despite two red hot inflation prints the two days prior.
We'll see if this week presents a setup...
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here (https://a1trading.com/vip/tgvip/)!
— Alan
Gold has been chopping around for 23 days.. Though I'd like to think it can revive itself sometime soon.
I mentioned in my previous markup that an AI trade unwind could fuel gold as investors flock to safety.
Last Friday we saw an example of that. Gold rallied on AI fears even despite two red hot inflation prints the two days prior.
We'll see if this week presents a setup...
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here (https://a1trading.com/vip/tgvip/)!
— Alan
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Join Jim Simmons for a live breakdown to help you find an account with rules that match how you trade. He will cover direct access paths, standard evaluations, and account sizes from $25K to $150K.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Markets fully price a 50bp cut, and the central bank delivers 25bp. What’s the most likely currency reaction?
Markets fully price a 50bp cut, and the central bank delivers 25bp. What’s the most likely currency reaction?
Anonymous Quiz
18%
It weakens, since any cut hurts a currency
22%
It weakens, since a smaller cut signals a weaker economy
60%
It tends to strengthen, since the outcome was more hawkish than priced
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Gold Breaks 4,120 Support as Oil Reignites Inflation Fears
Gold held a range between 4,220 and 4,120 for weeks. Every dip below 4,120 got bought back leaving some wicks. However, today looks different. Oil is up almost 2%, which feeds inflation fears and keeps rate-hike bets alive.
I want to see follow-through lower so I can buy closer to 4,000. I’m personally no longer looking to short on the way down.
Buyers have defended 4,000 every time gold sold off sharply into it, and we’re only about 2% away. I’m eyeing cash-secured puts near the 4,000 strike on GLD to get paid while I wait.
Although I'm bullish medium-long term, I'm going to stay patient and lean on the EdgeFinder for the green light.
A deeper flush just hands me lower prices to accumulate.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold held a range between 4,220 and 4,120 for weeks. Every dip below 4,120 got bought back leaving some wicks. However, today looks different. Oil is up almost 2%, which feeds inflation fears and keeps rate-hike bets alive.
I want to see follow-through lower so I can buy closer to 4,000. I’m personally no longer looking to short on the way down.
Buyers have defended 4,000 every time gold sold off sharply into it, and we’re only about 2% away. I’m eyeing cash-secured puts near the 4,000 strike on GLD to get paid while I wait.
Although I'm bullish medium-long term, I'm going to stay patient and lean on the EdgeFinder for the green light.
A deeper flush just hands me lower prices to accumulate.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Nasdaq Daily Chart
The AI tech sell-off continues to be the overwhelming theme driving the market. This leaves the Nasdaq vulnerable.
Unfortunately, I seem to have missed the pullback, though I'm open to hopping in short if it presents itself again.
Shoutout Nick for calling this idea earlier in the VIP Discord!
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here (https://a1trading.com/vip/tgvip/)!
— Alan
The AI tech sell-off continues to be the overwhelming theme driving the market. This leaves the Nasdaq vulnerable.
Unfortunately, I seem to have missed the pullback, though I'm open to hopping in short if it presents itself again.
Shoutout Nick for calling this idea earlier in the VIP Discord!
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here (https://a1trading.com/vip/tgvip/)!
— Alan
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Macro readings still quite bearish. High inflation, cooling growth & jobs.
Staying bearish for the time being.
I hope everyone is enjoying our EdgeFinder Free Access Week!
Staying bearish for the time being.
I hope everyone is enjoying our EdgeFinder Free Access Week!
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A stop-loss order guarantees the exit price, even when the market gaps past the stop level
A stop-loss order guarantees the exit price, even when the market gaps past the stop level
Anonymous Quiz
32%
True
68%
False
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