Situation on the Dobropillya direction - information from the ground:
The situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces in the Dobropillya direction, as Russian forces make new advances in and around the city.
The main assault vectors have shifted to the east, with Russian forces using two main infiltration routes to reach Dobropillya from the east. The first runs along the railway line from Dorozhnje and into the southeastern industrial zone of Dobropillya, where accumulations of Russian infantry have been recorded. They are attempting to advance further into the neighbouring low-rise residential areas, where fighting is ongoing with Ukrainian forces attempting to clear them out.
The second infiltration route from the east originates in the Novyi Donbas - Nove Shakhove area and moves along both banks of the Byk River, through the large grey-zone leading into Hannivka. Some very small groups of Russian infiltrators have managed to reach as far as the northern and northwestern streets of Dobropillya from this direction, but they likely number no more than 10 in total. The main fighting is still ongoing for the Hannivka-Stepy area, east of the city.
Russian attacks from the south have decreased in intensity for now, although heavy fighting is still ongoing for the Vodyanske agglomeration, where Ukrainian forces retain a presence in several different areas. Russian forces also do not have full control over the village of Dobropillya yet. Russian infiltration routes run through the eastern part of the Vodyanske agglomeration, north towards Dobropillya, where a moderate Russian presence is recorded south of the railway line. Any presence beyond that is extremely minimal and insignificant, and left over from the original limited infiltrations during the flag planting operations last month.
Another infiltration route being used is from the southwest, moving north through the fields towards the village of Svyatohorivka. Some small scattered groups have managed to enter Svyatohorivka and the northwestern parts of Dobropillya. As of a few days ago, an estimated 15-20 Russian soldiers from the 114th and 132nd Motor Rifle Brigades are present within this area (around half from each brigade). Some of them entered the village from the east.
Continued Russian control over the village of Matysheve and surrounding areas has also been confirmed, with Ukrainian artillery shelling two areas containing Russian positions here a little over a week ago. It's rumoured that the Russian 234th VDV Regiment is planning to conduct an offensive operation northward from the Matyasheve-Dobropillya-Nadiia area in order to establish a foothold in the villages of Raksha and Virivka, west of Dobropillya. A few days ago, I reported that a Russian DRG was detected operating between these two settlements, but they have not been known to actually enter them yet.
Some other things to note are that there are still a few Ukrainian positions remaining in the western part of Bilytske, but they are probably not of military significance, which is why I have the city marked as Russian-controlled on my map. Russian forces are also conducting reconnaissance-infiltration probes on the neighbouring Bilytska Mine using 1-2 soldiers at a time, likely in preparation for an eventual storming operation. The capture of the mine complex would allow them to accumulate large numbers of infantry and even drone operators, which would result in a subsequent significant deterioration of the situation for Ukraine.
Alongside drones, Ukrainian infantry are playing a major role in the defence of Dobropillya - more-so than in other parts of the frontline it seems. According to my information, the ratio of Russian soldiers killed by Ukrainian infantry compared to drones is 1:3.
The situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces in the Dobropillya direction, as Russian forces make new advances in and around the city.
The main assault vectors have shifted to the east, with Russian forces using two main infiltration routes to reach Dobropillya from the east. The first runs along the railway line from Dorozhnje and into the southeastern industrial zone of Dobropillya, where accumulations of Russian infantry have been recorded. They are attempting to advance further into the neighbouring low-rise residential areas, where fighting is ongoing with Ukrainian forces attempting to clear them out.
The second infiltration route from the east originates in the Novyi Donbas - Nove Shakhove area and moves along both banks of the Byk River, through the large grey-zone leading into Hannivka. Some very small groups of Russian infiltrators have managed to reach as far as the northern and northwestern streets of Dobropillya from this direction, but they likely number no more than 10 in total. The main fighting is still ongoing for the Hannivka-Stepy area, east of the city.
Russian attacks from the south have decreased in intensity for now, although heavy fighting is still ongoing for the Vodyanske agglomeration, where Ukrainian forces retain a presence in several different areas. Russian forces also do not have full control over the village of Dobropillya yet. Russian infiltration routes run through the eastern part of the Vodyanske agglomeration, north towards Dobropillya, where a moderate Russian presence is recorded south of the railway line. Any presence beyond that is extremely minimal and insignificant, and left over from the original limited infiltrations during the flag planting operations last month.
Another infiltration route being used is from the southwest, moving north through the fields towards the village of Svyatohorivka. Some small scattered groups have managed to enter Svyatohorivka and the northwestern parts of Dobropillya. As of a few days ago, an estimated 15-20 Russian soldiers from the 114th and 132nd Motor Rifle Brigades are present within this area (around half from each brigade). Some of them entered the village from the east.
Continued Russian control over the village of Matysheve and surrounding areas has also been confirmed, with Ukrainian artillery shelling two areas containing Russian positions here a little over a week ago. It's rumoured that the Russian 234th VDV Regiment is planning to conduct an offensive operation northward from the Matyasheve-Dobropillya-Nadiia area in order to establish a foothold in the villages of Raksha and Virivka, west of Dobropillya. A few days ago, I reported that a Russian DRG was detected operating between these two settlements, but they have not been known to actually enter them yet.
Some other things to note are that there are still a few Ukrainian positions remaining in the western part of Bilytske, but they are probably not of military significance, which is why I have the city marked as Russian-controlled on my map. Russian forces are also conducting reconnaissance-infiltration probes on the neighbouring Bilytska Mine using 1-2 soldiers at a time, likely in preparation for an eventual storming operation. The capture of the mine complex would allow them to accumulate large numbers of infantry and even drone operators, which would result in a subsequent significant deterioration of the situation for Ukraine.
Alongside drones, Ukrainian infantry are playing a major role in the defence of Dobropillya - more-so than in other parts of the frontline it seems. According to my information, the ratio of Russian soldiers killed by Ukrainian infantry compared to drones is 1:3.
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Situation northeast of Dobropillya - information from the ground:
Russian infiltrations, using both small assault groups and DRG groups, continue deep into the Ukrainian tactical rear. This has resulted in a deterioration of the situation for Ukraine near Bilozerske, and a slightly less critical situation further east. Active clearing operations by Ukrainian forces continue.
Russian infiltrations originate largely from the Novyi Donbas - Nove Shakhove area. The western routes lead towards Bilozerske, while the eastern routes lead towards Zolotyi Kolodyaz and the Novovodyane-Blahodat area.
In the Bilozerske area, small Russian infiltration groups have intensified their movements along the railway line and through the treelines north of Hannivka, resulting in an expansion of the grey-zone up to the outskirts of Bilozerske and into Vesele Pole, where they seem to be actually contesting entire areas now, rather than just entering a given position and moving around constantly to avoid being detected. Approximately 15 Russian soldiers were detected within Bilozerske in total a little over a week ago. A portion of them have been holding the southeastern-most high-rise building (48.53124, 37.07267) of the city for over two months since September 2, which I reported on at the time. From the railway line, some small infiltrators move north into the Novovodyane and Blahodat areas, where significant combat occurred a couple of weeks ago, although it seems the Russian presence here has decreased substantially due to repeated Ukrainian clearing operations.
In the Zolotyi Kolodyaz area, Russian infiltrators have been moving in small groups from areas east of Vilne, bypassing Vilne and Rubizhne through the indicated routes, and into the western part of Zolotyi Kolodyaz, where they have only sporadically been detected in recent weeks. The main Russian goal does not seem to be holding positions in the town, but rather moving further northwest through the town towards the highway, and then even further towards Blahodat and Vesela Hora, where individual groups continue to be sporadically detected.
The reason why I still have most of these infiltration areas as "Ukrainian-controlled", but within the infiltration zone (separate to the grey-zone), is because in most of these routes, Russian soldiers are not stopping to take and hold positions, but rather simply moving through towards their target destination up to 17 km away from the nearest Russian-controlled territory. There is still an overwhelming majority of consolidated Ukrainian positions in these areas, which are used to try disrupt these infiltration operations along the way. Also, in my opinion, a large portion of these small infiltration groups are DRGs, which do not have the task of taking and holding territory, but rather carrying out reconnaissance and sabotage missions behind Ukrainian lines. I have added grey-zones only in areas where Russian forces are actively contesting portions of territory, and not just hopping between positions to try avoid being detected.
One of the main reasons why these infiltrators are able to conduct such deep movements - besides the obvious lack of soldiers concentrated along the frontline due to heavy drone usage making this impossible - is how Ukrainian reconnaissance drones are being used. Ukrainian drones primarily survey the actual grey-zone and Russian-controlled territory. This means that there is a certain point where the Russian infiltrators reach an area deep enough where there are substantially less Ukrainian drones in the air searching the land for Russian soldiers, making it much less likely for them to be detected. The number of Russian soldiers in a series of DRG groups, for example, may decrease quite a lot due to heavy casualties as they move through the grey-zone, but once they reach an area a few kilometres from the grey-zone, they could suffer zero additional casualties all the way up to their maximum infiltration depth of around 17 km.
Russian infiltrations, using both small assault groups and DRG groups, continue deep into the Ukrainian tactical rear. This has resulted in a deterioration of the situation for Ukraine near Bilozerske, and a slightly less critical situation further east. Active clearing operations by Ukrainian forces continue.
Russian infiltrations originate largely from the Novyi Donbas - Nove Shakhove area. The western routes lead towards Bilozerske, while the eastern routes lead towards Zolotyi Kolodyaz and the Novovodyane-Blahodat area.
In the Bilozerske area, small Russian infiltration groups have intensified their movements along the railway line and through the treelines north of Hannivka, resulting in an expansion of the grey-zone up to the outskirts of Bilozerske and into Vesele Pole, where they seem to be actually contesting entire areas now, rather than just entering a given position and moving around constantly to avoid being detected. Approximately 15 Russian soldiers were detected within Bilozerske in total a little over a week ago. A portion of them have been holding the southeastern-most high-rise building (48.53124, 37.07267) of the city for over two months since September 2, which I reported on at the time. From the railway line, some small infiltrators move north into the Novovodyane and Blahodat areas, where significant combat occurred a couple of weeks ago, although it seems the Russian presence here has decreased substantially due to repeated Ukrainian clearing operations.
In the Zolotyi Kolodyaz area, Russian infiltrators have been moving in small groups from areas east of Vilne, bypassing Vilne and Rubizhne through the indicated routes, and into the western part of Zolotyi Kolodyaz, where they have only sporadically been detected in recent weeks. The main Russian goal does not seem to be holding positions in the town, but rather moving further northwest through the town towards the highway, and then even further towards Blahodat and Vesela Hora, where individual groups continue to be sporadically detected.
The reason why I still have most of these infiltration areas as "Ukrainian-controlled", but within the infiltration zone (separate to the grey-zone), is because in most of these routes, Russian soldiers are not stopping to take and hold positions, but rather simply moving through towards their target destination up to 17 km away from the nearest Russian-controlled territory. There is still an overwhelming majority of consolidated Ukrainian positions in these areas, which are used to try disrupt these infiltration operations along the way. Also, in my opinion, a large portion of these small infiltration groups are DRGs, which do not have the task of taking and holding territory, but rather carrying out reconnaissance and sabotage missions behind Ukrainian lines. I have added grey-zones only in areas where Russian forces are actively contesting portions of territory, and not just hopping between positions to try avoid being detected.
One of the main reasons why these infiltrators are able to conduct such deep movements - besides the obvious lack of soldiers concentrated along the frontline due to heavy drone usage making this impossible - is how Ukrainian reconnaissance drones are being used. Ukrainian drones primarily survey the actual grey-zone and Russian-controlled territory. This means that there is a certain point where the Russian infiltrators reach an area deep enough where there are substantially less Ukrainian drones in the air searching the land for Russian soldiers, making it much less likely for them to be detected. The number of Russian soldiers in a series of DRG groups, for example, may decrease quite a lot due to heavy casualties as they move through the grey-zone, but once they reach an area a few kilometres from the grey-zone, they could suffer zero additional casualties all the way up to their maximum infiltration depth of around 17 km.
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Now that that's over, we wait for the resumption of the regional war in the Middle East.
I expect the U.S. will start a new bombing campaign in the coming days/weeks, and Iran will immediately retaliate by hitting the gulf states and U.S. bases.
I expect the U.S. will start a new bombing campaign in the coming days/weeks, and Iran will immediately retaliate by hitting the gulf states and U.S. bases.
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The IRGC released footage showing the interception of a U.S. MQ-9 “Reaper” drone over the Strait of Hormuz today.
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Approximately 4 Russian S8000 Banderol cruise missiles struck the city of Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, and the neighbouring city of Svitlodovsk, Kirovohrad Oblast, a little over an hour ago.
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