The gap between the Netanyahu bloc and opposition bloc is narrowing, with 56.7% of votes counted.

5 hours ago, Netanyahu's bloc had around 50%. That has since dropped to 43.7%.

Neither will be able to form a coalition alone, as they don't have a majority of 61 seats.

Russia attacked Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast, with two KAB-250 glide-bombs last night, destroying a section of a residential building.

No civilians were killed in the attack.

The IDF claims to have killed three fighters from two different elite Hamas "Nukhba" units in recent targeted assassination strikes, including one fighter in the southern Gaza Strip who allegedly took part in the October 7 attacks on Israel; a Nukhba platoon commander in the northern Gaza Strip; and one additional Nukhba militant in Northern Gaza.

In the coming weeks, Russia may carry out an attack on Ukraine using Kh-22/32 supersonic cruise missiles, likely targeting either Kyiv Oblast or Odesa Oblast.

In the last two days, two Russian Tu-22m3 strategic bombers underwent equipment of up to 6 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles at Dyagilevo and Engels-2 Airbases. Both are currently stationed at Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast. Additional Tu-22m3 bombers may be equipped with Kh-22/32 cruise missiles in the coming days.

❗️Regarding Russia's preparations for the next large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine involving strategic bombers:

4 Tu-160M strategic bombers are now equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. Two of the bombers are equipped with 10 missiles each. The other two are also likely equipped with 10 each as well.

4-6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers continue to undergo equipment of Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase. They will subsequently redeploy to Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast the day before the attack. They will likely not launch more than 4 missiles each.

What missiles could be used?

- 50-64 Kh-101 cruise missiles
- Up to 20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
- Up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles
- Up to 10 Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles
- Several Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
- 8-16 Kalibr cruise missiles
- Several S8000 Banderol cruise missiles
- Hundreds of Geran-2/4/5 and Gerbera drones.

Not all of these missiles listed above are expected to be used. These are just the maximums, in my opinion. It's possible that the attack will involve minimal ground-based missiles, and that they will be used in a separate attack days afterwards.

In my opinion, the Kh-101 cruise missiles and drones will target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, while any other missiles would target the eastern half of Ukraine as usual. Drones will likely be used to target energy and railway infrastructure.

The highest threat is in place for October 31, November 1, and November 2.

Due to changing light levels as we approach Winter, the attacks with strategic bombers will probably take place after 6am local time, as the Kh-101 cruise missiles require light for more effective guidance. This means that the attack may be split into two halves, with ground-launched missiles being used after midnight, and the air-launched missiles being used during the early morning hours as the sun rises.

In preparation for covering the resumption of the Iran war, I'm looking for additional sources from the Middle East to help with my reporting.

If you're currently in Iran, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, or any other country where there are relevant developments occurring, please reach out to me via DMs at @AMK_Mapping1. I also have Signal if needed.

You will remain entirely anonymous, and would be in complete control of what information I am allowed to post. Unlike some channels, I do not intend to publish any information that could put you or your country at risk.

I already have a solid base of sources from the first stage of the war as well, so if you were one of the many people who sent me information earlier this year, please DM me again so we can remain in contact for the coming months.

A Russian Geran-4 jet-drone struck the city of Pavlohrad, eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, this morning.

Smoke was seen rising following the impact.

Zaporizhzhia City is under attack from Russian KAB glide-bombs.

At least four impacts to the southern suburbs so far.

The city of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, has now been entirely without power for over 5 days due to repeated Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in the region.

Residents are being forced to travel to neighbouring cities to charge their devices and power banks. In Konotop, everything has to run off generators, however the fuel for them is becoming scarce.

Emergency work is underway to restore electricity, and the Ukrainian government is expected to provide the city with diesel fuel for generators today.

Oleshky Ceasefire.

It's now been over 48 hours since the implementation of the ceasefire across Kherson Oblast, and no major violations have been recorded.

It has become apparent that one of the terms of the ceasefire is that Ukrainian and Russian drones are not allowed to cross the Dnieper River to the opposite banks, meaning that any reconnaissance of logistics from either side must be conducted from a significant distance.

Russia and Ukraine are both taking advantage of this to reinforce their positions in the region. Russian forces are bringing forward new reinforcements in trucks, and increasing their presence along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. According to unconfirmed reports, Russian forces are also constructing anti-drone netting over the industrial zone of Nova Kakhovka. Ukrainian forces are conducting rotations throughout the western bank of the river, evacuating the remaining injured and killed personnel, and bringing forward new supplies to frontline positions. Heavy demining operations continue on both banks of the river. One Ukrainian marine has already been killed by the detonation of unexploded ordinance.

On the islands in the river, there is practically no movements of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, as it's less clear where the ceasefire line is there. Ukrainian and Russian forces both continue to hold positions on the islands, including sometimes fairly close to one another. It's likely that neither side wants to be detected there so as not to give each other a reason to break the truce.

Russian channels claim that at least two Ukrainian FPV drones were shot down over the R-57 Highway southwest of Oleshky. It's unclear if these alleged drones were for reconnaissance or strike purposes. It's also claimed that several Ukrainian FPV drones attempted to approach the Tendrovska Spit, but were shot down. Ukrainian artillery shelling reportedly targeted Russian positions on the Kinburn Spit, however, because this is technically part of Mykolaiv Oblast, it's likely that the ceasefire does not extend to there.

Throughout the last day, Ukrainian channels sporadically reported drone detections over the suburbs of Kherson closest to the river, as well as over the river itself, opposite the port. It's unknown if these were Ukrainian drones or Russian drones. Likely a mix a both.

There is a general consensus in the information space that, because both sides are taking advantage of this ceasefire to bring forward heavy reinforcements and increase their presence on both sides of the river, the intensity of fighting will significantly increase after the end of the truce, as both sides will have a much higher strike capacity for some time.

The attached video shows the streets of western Kherson this evening, filled with more civilians than ever since 2022.

I’m out walking and there’s a car with a number plate “SBU”.

They’re watching me 😁

This is the kind of thing I should post before taking a break from reporting and going completely silent for a week with no explanation