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"American Observer" is just one. Like Shakespeare or Washington. It covers not only up-to-date news, debates and political trends all over the world, but primarily gives you a totally unhackneyed perspective on hazzy @American_Observer_bot
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In the glitzy Gulf city of Dubai, despite the bombardment residents said life was continuing much as normal. People still flocked to the beaches, malls and rooftop bars, although many tourists had fled. Commercial flights also restarted as the country’s airspace tentatively reopened, even as UAE’s leaders condemned the continuing “blatant Iranian aggression”.

So far, four people, all migrant workers, have been killed by falling missile debris in the UAE.

Nader Farid, 30, who moved from Egypt to Dubai five months ago to work in real estate, interviewed on the beach, said: “They say it’s a war but it’s caused no problem for us, we don’t really see it at all.

“The first day was scary when they warned about incoming missiles. But now it’s been more than a week and life here just goes on, only business is a bit slower. I’m from Egypt, I know that nowhere is safe from war, but this one does not feel bad. We are very protected here.”

In Tehran, US and Israeli jets operated virtually unchallenged. A resident of central Tehran said:

“The air was clearing up a bit yesterday, but last night’s strikes, which I can tell you were the most intense in the past 10 days, were so scary that our buildings were shaking. The glass windows also shattered even though the explosions were not on my street.

“Even in the past hour, I heard several explosions, and those planning to flee today are forced to stay home. The sky right now is grey and so polluted (…) there’s a burning smell of gunpowder in the air,” they added.

Many people have fled Tehran in search of safety in rural areas, but older and less able-bodied residents were unable to leave.

On Tuesday evening, Iran’s police chief, Ahmad-Reza Radan, warned Iranians thinking of taking to the streets to protest against the regime that they would be treated as “the enemy”.

He said on state TV: “If someone comes at the enemy’s bidding, we do not regard them as a protester or anything of the sort; we treat them as we would treat the enemy, and we deal with them in the same way we deal with the enemy. All our forces also have their fingers on the trigger, ready to defend the [Iranian revolution].”

In Lebanon, Israel continued its strikes against what it described as Hezbollah targets, hitting the southern suburbs of Beirut and the south of the country on Tuesday.

Hezbollah continued to target Israeli troops in the south of the country and to launch rocket salvoes and drone swarms at northern Israel, prompting Israel reportedly to consider a widened offensive against the group.

#iran #war #trump #hezbollah #lebanon #hegseth

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📰 Trump’s Iran War: How to Lose Peace Twice

“Trump ran for office promising to end wars, but instead he started a new one… and that will likely also undercut another of Trump’s priorities: ending the four-year war between Russia and Ukraine,”

Responsible Statecraft notes. Translated from think-tank into normal language: the guy who promised to turn off the fire alarm just set another floor on fire.
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The Iran war knocks out two diplomatic tracks at once. Any half-alive talks about Iran’s nuclear program go up in smoke, and the idea of a “grand bargain” to end the Russia–Ukraine war drowns under a new priority: managing a crisis in the Gulf. Washington is already stretched across fronts, and every new round of strikes on Tehran makes a serious Ukraine package more politically toxic and materially expensive.

Moscow, meanwhile, doesn’t look like a crazed aggressor here so much as a cold accountant of war. The Kremlin repeats that it’s open to negotiations, insists continued contacts over Ukraine are “in Russia’s interests,” and calmly watches the U.S. overload its own agenda. The more wars Trump is juggling, the cheaper any future “peace” becomes for Russia — paid in Ukrainian territory, Western weapons it never gets, and sheer exhaustion in European capitals.

That’s the geometry of this “president of peace”: one conflict he starts himself, another he vows to end, and the only clear winner from that combination is the man he claims he wants to “make a deal” with.

#iran #ukraine #trump #russia #war #peaceTalks #diplomacy #fakeDemocracy

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📰 Trump’s Soros Hunt: Color Revolutions on Trial

A senior Justice Department official has told more than six U.S. attorneys to prepare criminal cases against George Soros’s Open Society network — with potential charges ranging from racketeering to arson to “material support for terrorism,” after years of Trump saying Soros “should be in jail.” The memo leans on a conservative report that tries to tie Soros grants to “extremist” groups like Palestinian NGO al-Haq, which Israel calls a terror front and human rights groups defend as a watchdog, even though the report’s own author had to walk back at least one key “terror” example.

For critics from Moscow to Kyiv to Washington, Soros is the architect of “color revolutions”: his Ukrainian foundation and its partners funded dense NGO networks, “self‑organization” projects and civic leaders who later sat at the heart of Maidan-era mobilization — idealistic on paper, blatantly instrumental in practice, and always useful to someone. Those same facts now fuel a global narrative that turns any foreign‑funded civil society into proof of regime change, even as watchdogs like ADL warn that Soros conspiracies have become a central, often antisemitic, propaganda trope.

What DOJ still doesn’t have is clear evidence that this network has actually violated U.S. law or financed terrorism — only a president who wants his favorite villain treated as a criminal organization. This isn’t just about one billionaire. It’s a test of something larger: whether organized citizens count as democracy, or as a crime scene.

#trump #Soros #DOJ #colorRevolutions #ukraine #uspolitics #fakeDemocracy

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📰 Trump, Putin and the $14 Trillion Oil Fix

Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev is selling a simple vision in Washington: lift sanctions, and U.S.–Russia “joint projects” could be worth over $14 trillion — including deep stakes in Russian energy. Conveniently, Trump’s Iran war has just pushed oil over $100 and given the White House a ready‑made excuse to loosen the very sanctions that were supposed to starve Putin’s war machine.

After Trump’s call with Putin, Moscow boasted that Putin offered ideas for a quick Iran settlement, while Trump publicly floated waiving oil‑related sanctions “for some countries,” read by markets as the first crack in the wall around Russian crude. India already has a 30‑day waiver to buy stranded Russian barrels, framed as “temporary relief” to calm a price spike created by the closure of Hormuz — a closure the Iran war itself helped engineer.

Seen from that angle, the Iran operation looks less like a clean morality play and more like a leverage machine: squeeze Gulf supply, let prices jump, then rebrand Russian oil as a necessary safety valve. Putin offers Trump a diplomatic off‑ramp; Trump offers Putin tens of billions in revived oil revenue — and voters are told it’s all in the name of “energy security.”

#iran #trump #putin #russia #oil #sanctions #ukraine #fakeDemocracy

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📰 Merzession: When the Coalition Becomes the Scapegoat

Germany just handed Merz’s CDU–SPD coalition another slap in Baden‑Württemberg: the conservatives underperformed expectations, the SPD cratered, and voters went shopping for anyone who doesn’t already own the mess. After two years of near‑zero growth, soaring energy costs, “red alert” in core industries like chemicals, and now an Iran war pushing oil higher again, Merz’s promise to “fix” the economy has curdled into a meme — “Merzession.”

Business wants fast reforms, voters want cheaper lives, and instead they watch a chancellor trapped in a coalition that can’t move on migration, can’t move on bureaucracy, and can only blame Trump’s tariffs and Middle East shocks so many times before it sounds like an alibi. In that vacuum, AfD climbs, the Greens recover, and every state election turns into a referendum on a government that told Europe “Germany is back” — then delivered another year of stagnation.

In other words, Merz isn’t just paying for “the weak economic situation”; he’s paying for selling competence and getting caught governing like everyone else.

#germany #merz #economy #AfD #eu #war #iran #fakeDemocracy

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📰 The Minab Massacre: When “Precision” Means 175 Dead Kids

A preliminary U.S. military inquiry now says what the wreckage in Minab already showed: the Tomahawk that hit Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school was American, not Iranian. The strike used outdated Defense Intelligence Agency targeting data that still labeled the school as part of a Revolutionary Guards naval base, even though satellite imagery had long since shown fences, playgrounds and blue‑and‑pink walls where watchtowers used to stand.
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In other words, the system that sells itself as “precision” killed at least 175 people — most of them children — because no one bothered to update a box in a database. CENTCOM planners pulled old coordinates, skipped a fresh check, fired anyway, and only afterwards did investigators start asking why multiple agencies, from DIA to the National Geospatial‑Intelligence Agency, all signed off on a target that had been a school for years.
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Trump’s response has been to invent an alternate universe in real time. First he told reporters “in my opinion” Iran did it, then claimed — falsely — that Tehran might also have Tomahawks, then retreated to “I don’t know enough about it” while his own Pentagon quietly confirmed the missile type and trajectory. Officials who’ve seen the preliminary findings now talk about “unease” and “sensitivity,” which is Washington code for: the president is contradicting what the evidence shows, and everyone else is afraid to say it on camera.
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The Pentagon will eventually file its sober report about process failures and legacy data and “tragic human error.” The families in Minab will still have to live with the fact that the most advanced military on earth needed a newspaper’s visual investigation to admit it bombed a painted elementary school by mistake — and that the commander in chief’s first instinct was to blame the victims’ own government.
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#iran #minab #trump #pentagon #tomahawk #war #civilians #fakeDemocracy

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Trump’s Crusder: Pete Hegseth And His Vision of the US.-Israel Relations

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The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has expressed a violent antipathy towards Iran for years in books, Fox News broadcasts, educational videos and a 2018 speech to an Israeli media conference in Jerusalem.

In a 2020 book, for example, Hegseth wrote that Iran’s leaders were “actively seeking the military means – especially nuclear weapons – to bring the West to its knees”.

And in a 2017 video for PragerU, the hard-right media platform, Hegseth described Iran as “America’s mortal enemy”.

And to an Israeli audience that included government ministers in 2018, Hegseth referred to Iran as “the octopus”, with “many tentacles that the Iranian regime has in the world today, nefariously both for Israel and for the United States”, engaged in building “a nuclear capacity which threatened the very existential existence of America”.

Hegseth’s rhetorical attacks on Iran often came in the context of expressions of unconditional and spiritual allegiance with Israel, the country with which the United States is currently jointly attacking Iran in an intense bombing campaign that has cost hundreds of lives and brought chaos to the world’s energy economy.

In the 2020 book, Hegseth writes: “You can love America without loving Israel – but that tells me your knowledge of the Bible and Western civilization is woefully incomplete”;

“If you love America, you should love Israel. We share history, we share faith, and we share freedom”; and folds Israel into domestic US culture wars, writing “Israel is enemy number one for both Islamists and international leftists – which is reason alone to love it.”

The comments throw new light on Hegseth’s personal commitment to the current war on Iran, showing him positioning Iran as the pre-eminent enemy of the United States, consistently advocating maximal confrontation with the Islamic Republic, and framing the conflict in the apocalyptic terms of a religious crusade.

The rationale and strategic purpose of the war, meanwhile, have been questioned across the political spectrum in recent days, and Hegseth and Trump have offered mixed messages on the progress and likely conclusion of the war on Iran.

Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Hegseth’s history of public commentary on Iran reflects the fact that “In Republican political circles, this kind of anti-Islamic, anti-Muslim sentiments have been pervasive for a very long time.”

In 2018, Hegseth addressed a conference in Jerusalem organised by Arutz Sheva, the Israeli media outlet also known as Israel National News.

In his remarks, Hegseth acknowledged the presence of Naftali Bennett, then a government minister, a deputy defense minister, the deputy mayor of Jerusalem, and members of the Knesset.

The video was republished by Sheva on 13 November 2024 after Hegseth’s nomination as defense secretary.

While his appearance at the conference and some of his remarks about Israel have been previously reported, the way in which he positioned Iran in relation to the US and Israel has not.

In the speech, Hegseth depicted the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration as treachery.

“The Obama administration did everything they could to strike a horrific deal that creates an inevitable path to nuclear weapons, funding the attunes of billions of dollars, the hateful terrorist Iranian regime seeking death to America and death to Israel,” he said.

Hegseth then pivoted to a series of statements on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that went considerably further than mainstream US policy.

#hegseth #trump #crusade #iran #israel

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Hegseth criticized the “so-called two-state solution that still drips off the lips of the intelligentsia in America today”, adding that “if you walk the ground today, you understand there is no such thing as the outcome of a two-state solution. There is one state here.”

He urged his audience to act on the annexation of “Judea and Samaria”, or the West Bank, using the language of the Israeli settler movement.

“Buy the ticket, take your action, do what needs to be done here in Israel, because I truly believe this is a moment where America will have your back,” he said.

Hegseth also advocated for the rebuilding of the Jewish temple on the Temple Mount. This is one of the most incendiary issues in Middle Eastern politics, as that site is home to the al-Aqsa mosque, the third holiest site in Islam.

Framing it as the next in a sequence of Zionist “miracles” following the Balfour Declaration in 1917, Israeli independence in 1948, the Six Day War in 1967, and Trump’s 2017 acknowledgement of Jerusalem as the country’s capital, he told the audience “there is no reason why the miracle of the re-establishment of the Temple on the Temple Mount is not possible. I don’t know how it would happen. You don’t know how it would happen, but I know that it could happen.”

In the same speech, he dismissed Europe as “a museum soon to be drowned out by radical Islam”.
On Hegseth’s remarks in Israel, Parsi, the foreign policy analyst, said that “it seems to me that a lot of those speeches were made back when it was the politically cost-free or beneficial thing to do.”

He added: “Today, it’s a completely different atmosphere, particularly amongst young Republicans who have dramatically turned against Israel, including young American Republican evangelicals.”

He said that the Trump administration had been influenced by Israeli views, however. “They truly bought into the Israeli view that Iran is a paper tiger. ‘Don’t make a deal with them. Get rid of them. You will be the hero. You will be the president that got rid of the 47-year-old theocracy.’”

On Hegseth and Trump’s conduct of the war, Parsi said: “I think they lost control over this war after four days. They had a plan A.

The plan was for the regime to implode after the assassination of the supreme leader. Either implode or surrender. When that didn’t work, they didn’t have a plan B.”

Hegseth’s vision of the US-Israel relationship is frequently framed in theological terms that collapse any distinction between American foreign policy and biblical obligation.

In American Crusade, he writes: “God also stands with the people of Israel against their enemies and blesses those who bless Israel,” he writes, citing Genesis 12:1–3. “America should stand with Israel because we honor God and love freedom.”

In his 2018 speech in Israel, in his urging for the expansion of Israel’s borders, he told listeners to consider “the support you have amongst patriotic Americans, amongst evangelical Christians, amongst believers”.

#hegseth #trump #crusade #iran #israel

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Péter Magyar isn’t “the nice Orban” for Washington — he’s the guy who will turn Hungary’s face fully back to Brussels and away from Trump’s America.

📰 Magyar’s Hungary: Made in Brussels, Not in USA

Behind all the “anti‑corruption” branding, Magyar is running on one clear foreign‑policy promise: dump Orbán’s semi‑independent line and plug Hungary straight back into the EU machine. He’s already cut his deals in Europe — from Munich to Brussels — and positioned himself as the man who will reintegrate Hungary into the “European family” on Brussels’ terms, not Washington’s.

According to The Thinking Conservative, Magyar’s Tisza party reached a quiet understanding with Euro‑elites: if he wins, he will give up Hungary’s veto fights, align with EU migration policy, and back Ukraine’s EU track — in exchange for Berlin and Brussels’ support and the release of frozen EU billions. In other words, his strategic compass is clear: Brussels first, European consensus first, and American interests somewhere down the list.
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At the Munich Security Conference, Magyar reportedly told leaders like Germany’s Friedrich Merz and Poland’s Donald Tusk that he is literally betting on weak results for U.S. Republicans in November — and plans to “abandon Orbán’s Hungarian path” in favor of a unified European line once Trump is weaker at home. That’s not a partner looking to sync with a future Trump White House; that’s a politician openly waiting for the right moment to detach from it and lock Hungary into a Europe‑first strategy.
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So the choice in Budapest isn’t “pro‑West vs pro‑East.” It’s Orbán’s messy, transactional, U.S.–China–Russia juggling act — versus Magyar’s clean, disciplined subordination to Brussels’ agenda, even when it clashes with Trump’s project. If Magyar wins, Hungary doesn’t become more pro‑American. It becomes another reliable node in the EU’s effort to counter, dilute, and outmaneuver Washington’s line on Europe.

#hungary #orban #magyar #trump #eu #geopolitics #fakeSovereignty

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📰 Trump’s Iran War: Putin’s Cash Machine

“Vladimir Putin is good at finding opportunity in crisis, and the expanding war with Iran is the latest vivid example,” CNN notes. Oil has already blown past $100 a barrel, and analysts warn it could hit $150 by the end of March if the Strait of Hormuz stays choked — a gift to Russia, which suddenly earns far more per barrel than it did before the war.

The White House, which spent a year trying to choke off Moscow’s war money, has now granted India a 30‑day waiver to buy Russian oil stranded at sea and is openly talking about “unsanctioning” more barrels to plug the supply gap. Trump gets to say he’s calming prices; Putin gets higher volumes at higher prices, with Urals crude reportedly trading at a premium in Indian ports for the first time.

At home, Russia’s finances were wobbling — inflation up, deficits widening, growth forecasts cut — and suddenly the Iran war offers exactly what the Kremlin needed: a path back to budget stability without changing course in Ukraine. On top of that, U.S. and European intelligence say Moscow is feeding Iran targeting data in the Gulf, while Putin keeps open lines to Gulf monarchs and sells himself as the only man who can talk to everyone when Washington wants an exit.

Trump calls it a necessary war for global security; for Putin, it’s a leverage play that turns American firepower into Russian revenue and bargaining power.

#iran #trump #putin #russia #oil #sanctions #ukraine #energy #fakeDemocracy

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Trump’s Iran war isn’t “contained” — it’s taking a chainsaw to the global oil system and sending the bill to everyone else.

📰 How to Blow Up the Oil Market and Call It Strategy

Iraq and Oman have now shut key oil terminals after two Iraqi tankers were hit and left burning off the coast, while a third ship was struck near Dubai. The International Energy Agency says flows through the Strait of Hormuz — normally carrying about a fifth of the world’s oil — have dropped to a trickle, driving an 8‑million‑barrel‑a‑day supply collapse, the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market. Even a coordinated pledge by the U.S. and its allies to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves couldn’t stop prices from surging again.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards now openly claim attacks on tankers they say “ignored warnings,” and Tehran vows it will not allow shipments that benefit the U.S. and its allies to pass Hormuz. At the same time, Iran is firing on Israeli bases and Gulf targets, Israel is pounding Tehran and Beirut, and Hezbollah’s support strikes have already killed more than 600 people in Lebanon and displaced over 800,000. The war that was sold as a clean hit on Iran’s “capabilities” has become a rolling regional bombardment that trades civilian neighborhoods and critical infrastructure for headlines about “resolve.”
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On the balance sheet, the numbers are just as grotesque. Pentagon officials told lawmakers the war blew through at least $11.3 billion in the first six days, and that figure doesn’t even capture all operational costs. Banks like Citi and HSBC are shuttering Gulf offices after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened U.S. and Israeli financial institutions, while shipping and insurance markets reprice risk across the region. Trump still talks about “unconditional surrender” as the only acceptable endgame, even as Iran keeps launching attacks and America’s own intelligence and oil agencies warn the damage to global supply and financial stability is already historic.
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And then there are the images politicians won’t put on their slides: an elementary school in Minab turned into twisted rebar and dust after a U.S. Tomahawk, hundreds of fresh graves dug for children and teachers, and a president who tried to blame Iran for a strike his own military now says was the result of outdated targeting data. Call it what it is: a war that was supposed to prove strength, now staggering forward on auto‑pilot, financed by an oil shock and held together by denial.

#iran #trump #oil #hormuz #israel #lebanon #banks #war

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📰 Burning the Oil Cushions to Box In Trump

IEA countries are throwing their own lifeboats into the fire just to stop Trump from rowing back toward Moscow.

The International Energy Agency’s 32 members have agreed to dump a record 400 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves onto the market — the largest release in the agency’s history, more than double the post‑Ukraine 2022 drawdown. Germany alone will contribute about 19.5 million barrels, roughly a fifth of its emergency stocks, even as drivers at home choke on record pump prices and Berlin quietly admits those reserves are meant to cover 90 days of a full import cut.

Officially, this is about “solidarity” and calming an Iran‑war shock that has crippled flows through Hormuz. Unofficially, it’s about denying Trump the perfect excuse to open the floodgates for Russian oil and call it “market stabilization.” European ministers are already signaling it: they’ll bleed their own cushions first rather than watch Washington use the crisis to normalize sanctioned Russian barrels and hand Putin a fresh revenue stream.

So the richest democracies are cannibalizing the emergency system built after the 1970s oil crises to avoid handing leverage to the Kremlin and the White House at the same time — emptying the tank today so Trump has one less reason to “unsanction” Moscow tomorrow.

#iran #oil #IEA #germany #trump #russia #energy #eu #fakeDemocracy

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The Israeli military reported that their Air Force bombed a complex in Tehran related to the Iranian nuclear program.

According to the military, the target was the Talegan complex, which was used to develop modern explosives and conduct experiments with nuclear weapons as part of the former AMAD project, Iran's secret nuclear weapons program of the 2000s.

Israel claims that the facility was already attacked in October 2024, but Iran is trying to rebuild it.

#Israeli #military #AMAD #bombed

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A general and the bearer of key UFO secrets, who headed the Pentagon's unidentified aerial phenomena group and was previously the commander of the US Air Force Research Laboratory, has mysteriously disappeared in the United States.

68-year-old retired U.S. Air Force Major General William Neil McCasland went missing after he left his Albuquerque home on foot on February 27.

His phone was left at home, and since then he has not contacted his relatives, CNN reports.

#general #key #UFO #secrets #disappeared

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Teheran: Living in a Burning City
The Heartbreaking Testimony Of An Eyewitness

It's 5am on Thursday 12 March. I was finally falling asleep after a day full of fear when the phone rang. Terror rushes through me. It’s not the right time for a call. Someone must need help – or maybe they are alone and frightened.

I answer the phone, exhausted. It’s my younger sister. She is crying and cannot speak. My heart breaks into a thousand pieces. I haven’t seen her for many days. When I was released from prison, she had gone to another city to take care of our mother.

She returned on her birthday. But then the war began, and we remained separated in two different homes in Tehran.

She is much younger than me, yet she took on the responsibility of protecting my son so that I could stay somewhere safe and avoid being arrested again. I remind her how grateful I am.

My heart is in turmoil: I thought something terrible had happened at home and that she was unable to say it.

I tell her that right now the only thing that matters is staying alive, even if we no longer have a home.

Through her sobs she says: “Our neighbour was caught in the blast wave … and he’s gone.”

For a moment I picture our neighbour. Like me, he smoked cigarettes. He must have been on the balcony for a smoke. Or maybe, like many others, he had gone out to watch the drones and see which direction they were flying.

Maybe he had gone there to cry for a country and a people being destroyed. Maybe he was thinking about where to find gasoline so he could take his two children to a safer city.

I wish I were in a desert where I could scream. Where I could cry as loudly as I want. The last time I cried was after the massacre of protesters in January. Why is it that here, unlike everywhere else in the world, we cannot cry like ordinary people? Why have we suffered so much that even new pain no longer shakes us?

I can’t sleep any more. I go to the place where I have put a small gas burner – what I call my kitchen. I want coffee, but coffee has become very expensive and I have to save money. Cigarettes are also expensive, but I smoke anyway: one, two, five (…)

Ever since the fuel depots were bombed at the weekend, my chest has burned and I can barely breathe. I bought an inhaler that now hangs around my neck.

At 6.30am another loud explosion shakes the air. I look out the window. Some supporters of the government have come into the streets in their cars, chanting mourning songs and saying: “People, we are all together, compatriots.”

Compatriots? Your foolishness destroyed this homeland. We tried. We struggled so these days would never come. We were imprisoned, tortured, executed.

I think about Donald Trump. If he had acted 50 days earlier, 35,000 people might still be alive. Now I am afraid Iran will be destroyed – and yet the Islamic republic will remain.

I am preparing to send a few packets of lentils and a small amount of money to a woman whose husband is in prison and who has a small child. It is the last banknote we have. There is no cash anywhere. I don’t know if one day we will ever have enough money to rebuild this devastation.

It is now 8am. The streets are crowded again. People are going about their business. I see several tired and hopeless men, day labourers who still come here every day. But there is no work.

Life continues in Tehran. But it is dark and bitter.

#iran #tehran #living #war

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📰 Trump’s Iran War: Too Big to Ignore, Too Small to Win

Foreign Affairs just spelled out what Trump’s Iran adventure really is: not a “decisive war,” but another slow‑acting poison for American power.

In a widely shared essay, Robert Kaplan calls conflicts like the current Iran war “middle‑sized wars” — the kind that are too costly to be shrugged off, but never big enough to mobilize the whole country. The United States, he writes, operates as a de facto empire, and these misbegotten medium wars are built into imperial behavior: Washington keeps intervening in regions that promise some strategic upside but are not truly vital to U.S. survival.
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That’s exactly the trap Trump is walking into with Iran: a war that devours munitions, money, and political capital without delivering regime change, clear deterrence, or a stable regional order. Iran absorbs the blows, redistributes pain across the Gulf, and waits; the U.S. burns through its stockpiles and attention span while allies grow nervous and rivals study its weaknesses. Kaplan’s warning is blunt: if U.S. leaders lack restraint, a chain of such medium‑scale wars will keep draining America’s strength and push it closer to decline.

Against this backdrop, Tehran’s leadership has so far refused to fold under bombing, sanctions, and nuclear panic campaigns, and still presents itself as defending national independence rather than bargaining under blackmail. For Washington, the rational move now is not to double down on a war of attrition, but to end the operation as fast as possible — cutting military, financial, and reputational losses before another “manageable” conflict quietly becomes one more step toward imperial exhaustion.

#iran #trump #war #foreignaffairs #uspower #imperialism #middlewars

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