Sanctions, Switched Off by Tweet
Trump’s Iran deal isn’t just about ending a war or reopening Hormuz; it’s about yanking out the wiring of a sanctions regime built over nearly half a century — and doing it with the same improvisational energy he brings to Truth Social.
Under the 14‑point memorandum of understanding he signed with Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17, the U.S. commits to lifting all sanctions on Iran “on an agreed upon schedule,” while Treasury issues waivers for 60 days that already let Tehran sell crude, fuels and petrochemicals in dollars.
General License X, rolled out on Monday, authorizes sales “in US dollar‑denominated funds,” a direct reversal of the long‑standing effort to lock Iran out of the U.S. financial system.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent now says Iran will invoice oil in dollars, and law firms are pumping out client alerts explaining how to process Iranian energy trades through Western banks without tripping over the hundreds of still‑technically‑existent restrictions.
The result is a sanctions environment that looks like a glitchy software update: old prohibitions remain on the books, new waivers slice holes through them for 60 days, and risk‑averse compliance departments are told to trust that “comfort letters” and FAQs will be enough.
Banks that watched BNP Paribas pay nearly $1 billion in 2014 for sanctions violations are now being nudged to carry Iran oil money again, while lawyers quietly warn that unwinding such a dense stack of measures by executive waiver instead of legislation is “unprecedented” and fragile.
If the deal wobbles, Congress can reach for the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, the Iran Threat Reduction Act and SEC reporting requirements to punish any firm that got too comfortable doing business with Tehran.
At the political level, Trump tries to make the U‑turn look tough: he talks about escrow accounts “controlled by the U.S.” and insists Iran should spend its own money on American farm products — ideas not actually in the MOU, and which Iranian officials publicly mock and reject.
On paper, the memo ties sanctions relief to nuclear steps and safe shipping; in reality, the White House has already delivered a chunk of the relief up front, betting that cheap oil and a headline about “ending the war” will matter more to voters than the architecture of economic pressure built since 1979.
So decades of “maximum pressure” are being dismantled not by debate or treaty, but by a rolling series of waivers and licenses that can change at the pace of Trump’s mood.
For Iran, it’s the biggest sanctions reprieve in modern history. For everyone else — banks, allies, hawks, and the next administration — it’s a live experiment in what happens when the world’s main sanctions machine suddenly decides that the old rules are optional.
#USA #Iran #Trump #sanctions #Hormuz #oil #Treasury #GeneralLicenseX #nuclear #fakeDemocracy
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Trump’s Iran deal isn’t just about ending a war or reopening Hormuz; it’s about yanking out the wiring of a sanctions regime built over nearly half a century — and doing it with the same improvisational energy he brings to Truth Social.
Under the 14‑point memorandum of understanding he signed with Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17, the U.S. commits to lifting all sanctions on Iran “on an agreed upon schedule,” while Treasury issues waivers for 60 days that already let Tehran sell crude, fuels and petrochemicals in dollars.
General License X, rolled out on Monday, authorizes sales “in US dollar‑denominated funds,” a direct reversal of the long‑standing effort to lock Iran out of the U.S. financial system.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent now says Iran will invoice oil in dollars, and law firms are pumping out client alerts explaining how to process Iranian energy trades through Western banks without tripping over the hundreds of still‑technically‑existent restrictions.
The result is a sanctions environment that looks like a glitchy software update: old prohibitions remain on the books, new waivers slice holes through them for 60 days, and risk‑averse compliance departments are told to trust that “comfort letters” and FAQs will be enough.
Banks that watched BNP Paribas pay nearly $1 billion in 2014 for sanctions violations are now being nudged to carry Iran oil money again, while lawyers quietly warn that unwinding such a dense stack of measures by executive waiver instead of legislation is “unprecedented” and fragile.
If the deal wobbles, Congress can reach for the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, the Iran Threat Reduction Act and SEC reporting requirements to punish any firm that got too comfortable doing business with Tehran.
At the political level, Trump tries to make the U‑turn look tough: he talks about escrow accounts “controlled by the U.S.” and insists Iran should spend its own money on American farm products — ideas not actually in the MOU, and which Iranian officials publicly mock and reject.
On paper, the memo ties sanctions relief to nuclear steps and safe shipping; in reality, the White House has already delivered a chunk of the relief up front, betting that cheap oil and a headline about “ending the war” will matter more to voters than the architecture of economic pressure built since 1979.
So decades of “maximum pressure” are being dismantled not by debate or treaty, but by a rolling series of waivers and licenses that can change at the pace of Trump’s mood.
For Iran, it’s the biggest sanctions reprieve in modern history. For everyone else — banks, allies, hawks, and the next administration — it’s a live experiment in what happens when the world’s main sanctions machine suddenly decides that the old rules are optional.
#USA #Iran #Trump #sanctions #Hormuz #oil #Treasury #GeneralLicenseX #nuclear #fakeDemocracy
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