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📰 Zelensky Plants a Flag: No Land for Peace, No Matter What Trump or Putin Demand

The Line in the Sand
Ukraine will not cede territory. Not to appease Moscow. Not to satisfy Washington. Not under any circumstance short of force. President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered this message Monday in London after consultations with British, French, and German leaders — a direct rebuke to Trump's emerging peace proposal, which Western diplomats say was initially so favorable to Russia that they suspected the Kremlin had drafted it.

"Under our laws, under international law — and under moral law — we have no right to give anything away,"

Zelensky told journalists aboard his flight to Brussels.
"That is what we are fighting for."


Trump's Plan Hits a Wall
The Trump administration, via envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has been circulating a proposal that critics describe as a Russian wish list: territorial concessions by Ukraine, possible restrictions on NATO membership, and vague security guarantees. Ukraine and its European backers saw it as one-sided. They demanded rewrites that would strip what Zelensky called "explicitly anti-Ukrainian provisions." But the core demand remains unchanged — land for peace — unacceptable from Kyiv's perspective and apparently non-negotiable from Washington's.

Trump has been blaming Zelensky for the impasse, accusing him of slow-walking negotiations. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue advancing in the east, exploiting Ukrainian ammunition shortages and manpower gaps, while Moscow refuses to accept any ceasefire unless it ratifies its territorial claims — far exceeding what it actually controls militarily.

Europe Scrambles to Hold the Line
European leaders are alarmed. British PM Keir Starmer and French President Macron both stressed that Ukraine's sovereignty and security guarantees must be core to any deal. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that allowing Russia to redraw borders by force would shatter the international order. Yet they're watching nervously as Trump pressures Kyiv and hints at tilting toward Moscow — a dynamic that erodes Zelensky's negotiating position as Russian forces gain ground daily.

The Corruption Shadow
Zelensky is managing peace talks while his government faces serious scrutiny. Several senior officials have been implicated in corruption investigations, and longtime advisers have departed his inner circle. Weakened at home and under pressure from Washington, Kyiv's leverage is shrinking by the day.

Putin's Calculation
Russia claims it has annexed four entire Ukrainian regions — far more than it controls on the ground. The Kremlin signaled confidence that quieter diplomacy might extract concessions it cannot take by force. Putin's wager is straightforward: keep advancing militarily, let Trump and European divisions do the work, and wait for Ukraine to crack under the pressure.

The Real Question
Can Zelensky hold the line on territory while Europe rallies behind him and Trump keeps pushing for compromise? Or does his weakened political position — combined with military and American pressure — force Ukraine to accept territorial concessions it never wanted to contemplate?

#Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Zelensky #peace #talks #NATO #territorial #integrity #geopolitics #diplomacy

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🇺🇦🇺🇸 Witkoff Brushes Up on Peace Talks in Berlin


Witkoff hailed “progress” in Ukraine peace talks with Volodymyr Zelensky following five hours of negotiations in Berlin.

Witkoff said "a lot of progress was made" as he and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner met with the Ukrainian president in the latest push to end Russia’s invasion on Sunday. He did not reveal details of what was discussed.

Talks will continue on Monday morning and Zelensky will comment on their outcome after they have ended, the President’s adviser Dmytro Lytvyn said.

Ahead of the negotiations, Zelensky relinquished Ukraine’s bid to join Nato in what he said was a “compromise” to end the war with Russia.

In a major shift, Zelensky said Ukraine will instead ask for Western security guarantees, which he said should be legally binding.

Starmer and the French president, Emmanuel Macron are also expected to join the talks in Berlin, which are being hosted by Merz.

The UK prime minister will attend the talks as Britain continues to discuss a crucial deal to use frozen Russian sovereign assets to help provide funds for Kyiv.

Sir Keir spoke with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, on Saturday to discuss the move and work on the US-led peace proposals.

Speaking about Monday’s
talks, Zelensky said in an address to the nation late on Saturday:

💬 “I will be meeting with envoys of President Trump, and there will also be meetings with our European partners, with many leaders, concerning the foundation of peace – a political agreement to end the war.”

Zelensky’s agreement to ditch Ukraine’s Nato ambitions marks a major shift for the country, which has sought to join it as a safeguard against Russian attacks, and has such an aspiration included in its constitution.

It also meets one of Russia’s war aims, although Kyiv has so far held firm against ceding territory to Moscow.

💬 “From the very beginning, Ukraine's desire was to join Nato, these are real security guarantees. Some partners from the US and Europe did not support this direction,” he said in answer to questions from reporters in a WhatsApp chat.

💬 “Thus, today, bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the US, Article 5-like guarantees for us from the US, and security guarantees from European colleagues, as well as other countries, Canada, Japan, are an opportunity to prevent another Russian invasion,” Zelensky said.

He also said that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia along the current frontline would be a fair option.

#witkoff #peace #talks #berlin #zelensky

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Putin’s Ushakov Remains Upbeat About Peace Talks


Russia said it will hold security talks with the U.S. and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on Friday, but warned after a late-night meeting between Putin and three U.S. envoys that a durable peace would not be possible unless territorial issues were resolved.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters the talks, which began shortly before midnight and lasted some four hours, had been “substantive, constructive and very frank”.

He said Russian Admiral Igor Kostyukov would head Moscow's team at the three-way security talks, and investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev would meet separately on economic issues with Witkoff.

But while outlining the next steps, Ushakov stopped short of hailing any major breakthrough.

"Most importantly, during these talks between our president and the Americans, it was reiterated that without resolving the territorial issue according to the formula agreed upon in Anchorage, there is no hope of achieving a long-term settlement," he said, referring to last year's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.

Ushakov said Putin underlined that Russia was "sincerely interested" in a diplomatic solution.

He added, however: "Until this is achieved, Russia will continue to consistently pursue the objectives of the special military operation. This is especially true on the battlefield, where the Russian armed forces hold the strategic initiative."

Ukraine is enduring its harshest winter of the war as Russia mounts heavy missile and drone strikes on its energy infrastructure. With temperatures way below freezing, hundreds of thousands of people in Kyiv and other cities have suffered long power cuts and been left without heating.

Putin, Ushakov and Dmitriev took part in the talks on the Russian side.

On the U.S. side, Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who last met Putin in the Kremlin in early December, were accompanied by Josh Gruenbaum, newly appointed by Trump as a senior adviser to his Board of Peace, which will seek to tackle world conflicts.

The talks were the latest stage in a drive by Trump to bring an end to the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two, now approaching the end of its fourth year.

Witkoff was upbeat before the Moscow talks, saying many months of negotiations had come down to a single issue.

А key stumbling block is Putin's demand that Ukraine surrender the 20% it still holds of the eastern region of Donetsk.

Zelensky has refused to give up land that Ukraine has successfully defended at great cost through years of grinding, attritional warfare.

Russia also demands that Ukraine renounce its ambition to join NATO, and rejects any presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil following a peace deal.

Zelensky, after meeting Trump in Switzerland on Thursday, said the terms of security guarantees for Ukraine had been finalised, but that the issue of territory remained unsolved.

Ushakov praised the Americans for setting up Friday's security meeting with Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi.

#ushakov #upbeat #peace #talks

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Iran Botched Up Nuclear Talks With the US


Plans for U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Friday are back on, after several Middle Eastern leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away.

The talks will be held in Oman, as Iran insisted, despite the U.S. initially rejecting changes to the original plan to meet in Istanbul.

The standoff had sparked fears across the Middle East that Trump would pivot to military action.

At least nine countries from the region reached out to the White House at the highest levels strongly urging the U.S. not to cancel the meeting.

"They asked us to keep the meeting and listen to what the Iranians have to say. We have told the Arabs that we will do the meeting if they insist. But we are very skeptical," one U.S. official said.

A second U.S. official said the Trump administration agreed to hold the meeting "to be respectful" to U.S. allies in the region and "in order to continue pursuing the diplomatic track."

The U.S. and Iran had agreed to meet on Friday in Istanbul, with other Middle Eastern countries participating as observers.

But the Iranians said on Tuesday that they wanted to move the talks to Oman and hold them in a bilateral format, to ensure that they focused only on nuclear issues and not other matters like missiles that are priorities for the U.S. and countries in the region.

U.S. officials were at first open to the request to change the location, then rejected it, before reversing course once again, the meeting was off.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed on X that talks were "scheduled to be held in Muscat on about 10 am Friday," adding:

"I'm grateful to our Omani brothers for making all necessary arrangements."

#nuclear #talks #US #oman

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The Oman Talks Now: Iran Is Trundling Forward


Oman has mediated high-stakes, indirect talks between Iran and the US over Tehran’s nuclear programme, seen as one of the last chances to prevent a new US attack.

Envoys for the two countries arrived for separate meetings with the sultanate’s top diplomat, Badr al-Busaidi.

The negotiations are the first since the US struck Iranian nuclear targets in June, joining in the final stages of a 12-day Israeli bombing campaign.

Washington wanted to expand the talks to cover Iran’s ballistic missiles, support for armed groups in the region and “treatment of their own people” – as the US secretary of state, Rubio, said on Wednesday.

But, after days of speculation, Iranian negotiators were satisfied that only the nuclear dispute would be discussed, at least initially.

Oman’s foreign ministry published a statement saying al-Busaidi separately met the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and then Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.

It was not immediately clear if that was the end of the talks for the day, though Omani officials left the palace immediately after the US delegation.

The talks are being held against the backdrop of repeated warnings by Trump that he will strike Iran militarily from the US carrier strike group Abraham Lincoln if no progress is made.

The US has been building up its naval presence in the region after a bloody Iranian government crackdown on nationwide protests last month, heightening tensions between Washington and Tehran.

The planned attendance by the Muslim foreign ministers underlined the extent to which they fear their national security is wrapped up in agreement between the US and Iran.

Tehran has said it will not hesitate to attack Israel or US military bases in the region if it is attacked.

Iran says its right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil – a right it was granted in the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama – is not negotiable.

The best source of compromise is that Iran agrees to suspend plans to enrich uranium for a fixed number of years, and a regional consortium is formed that enriches uranium, taking the region closer to an integrated civil nuclear programme.

Iran is also seeking sanctions relief in return for a new inspections regime at its nuclear sites.

The value of the rial against the dollar has halved since the Israeli attacks in June, and Iran’s plummeting standard of living, made worse by runaway food inflation close to more than 100%, was the spark for the demonstrations that broke out in late December.

The security services responded with a brutal crackdown.

#oman #talks #iranan #us #trump

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Is Trump Really Afraid of Getting Bogged Down in Iran?


U.S.-flagged ships have been advised to stay "as far as possible" from Iranian waters when navigating the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between Washington and Tehran remain elevated.

In a notice issued Monday, the U.S. Maritime Administration said ship captains should decline permission for Iranian forces to board U.S. vessels.

Boarding attempts, including moves to force commercial vessels into Iranian waters through small boats and helicopters, have occurred as recently as Feb. 3, the agency under the Department of Transportation said.

Should Iranian forces board a U.S.-flagged commercial vessel, crews were advised not to "forcibly resist the boarding party," the notice said. It added that refraining from forcible resistance does not imply consent or agreement to that boarding.

The advisory recommended that ships transiting eastbound in the Strait of Hormuz stay close to the Omani side of the waterway.

The guidance followed a round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran held in Oman on Friday, centered on how to approach discussions over Tehran's nuclear program.

The meeting marked the first talks between the two countries since U.S. bombers struck three Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day war with Iran last June.

Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, described the talks as "a step forward," while signaling they would be the opening stage of a longer diplomatic process rather than a path to a quick resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also told state media that the talks were a "good start."

Trump said the Oman talks were "very good" and that more sessions were planned, even as he warned Iran that failure to reach a deal would carry "very steep" consequences for Iran.

Netanyahu is set to meet Trump in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the U.S.-Iran talks. Israel, a close U.S. ally, has lobbied Washington to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, curb its ballistic missile program and end its support for militant groups in the region.

Iran-U.S. talks in Muscat end without a breakthrough
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, has returned to the spotlight this year after Trump warned of possible military action against Tehran.

About 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, according to data from market intelligence firm Kpler, accounting for nearly a third of global seaborne crude flows.

Any disruption to those flows would ripple through global energy markets. Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait during previous confrontations, raising the prospect of higher oil prices.

#iran #trump #muscat #strait #hormuz #talks

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Zelensky Was Upbeat Before the Last Peace Talks — Wants To Meet Putin

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The latest round of talks to end the war in Ukraine concluded on Wednesday without any sign of meaningful progress.

But behind the scenes, negotiators have been trying to find a compromise on one of the biggest obstacles to a peace deal: control of territory in eastern Ukraine.

Russia has demanded that Ukraine hand over the land it controls in the Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war.

This is a strip of territory about 50 miles long and 40 miles wide that includes dozens of towns and villages, and sits between the frontline and the administrative border of the region.

Ukraine has refused to withdraw unilaterally, saying that ceding land would embolden Russia to attack again, in Ukraine or elsewhere. Kyiv has asked for security guarantees to deter Moscow from violating any cease-fire.

In negotiations over recent weeks, officials have discussed the idea of forming a demilitarized zone controlled by neither army, according to three people familiar with the talks who would only speak anonymously to discuss sensitive negotiations.

This revives a proposal that was included in prior peace plans, including a 28-point one floated by the Trump administration in November.

Over the past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has repeatedly downplayed the prospects of surrendering land for peace. “Allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake,” he wrote on social media on Monday.

Last fall, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was noncommittal when asked about forming a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region.

The 28-point plan would have put Russia in charge of the area but prohibited it from deploying military forces there. Mr. Putin said the details needed to be discussed.

The Russian president’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, was later more positive, saying Russia could accept the formation of such an area if Russian police or national guard soldiers were allowed to patrol it.

A demilitarized zone could become part of a viable settlement, said William Taylor, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think-tank, and a former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv.

But Ukraine’s interests would have to be protected, he said, and that would require the Trump administration to apply additional pressure on Russia.

“It is important that it be a real solution, not a forced solution, not an unbalanced solution,” Taylor said. “Any forced solution will not be stable. It will not last.”

To make it easier for both sides to accept the idea, negotiators have also discussed forming a free-trade zone in any possible demilitarized area, though investment possibilities seem limited in a territory that would be wedged between two armies, even with a cease-fire in place.

Most industry in the area is in ruins, with only one coal mine still operational, and the risk that the conflict could be rekindled would loom for years.

Zelensky has also cast doubt on such an arrangement.

Another issue is the withdrawal of troops from the frontline. In December, Zelensky suggested Ukraine would not withdraw troops from the frontline unless Russia withdrew by an equal distance.

At talks held in Abu Dhabi this month, the Ukrainians discussed options for a partial Russian withdrawal from the frontline that would not necessarily be symmetrical, two of the three people familiar with the talks said. This would signal a softening of Ukraine’s position.

#zelensky #peace #talks #putin

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How a demilitarized zone would be governed has also been a sticking point. Ukraine has pressed for an international peacekeeping force to be deployed to the region, which is home to 190,000 civilians including 12,000 children, according to the area’s Ukrainian governor.

The negotiators discussed forming a civilian administration to rule the area after the war, two of the three people familiar with the talks said.

This could include both Russian and Ukrainian representatives, one of the people said, but the person noted that the sides are far from an agreement.

Another issue that has re-emerged recently is the sequencing of the various steps, including accepting a demilitarized zone, formalizing security guarantees, creating a framework for postwar reconstruction funding and holding elections in Ukraine.

Last week, Zelensky said Ukraine wanted an agreement on security guarantees before committing to an election or any agreement on withdrawing forces from the Donbas.

“I would very much like us to sign security guarantees first and then sign other documents,” he said.

“In my view, that would be a good signal. This is not even a matter of fairness, but a matter of trust. More trust in partners — if guarantees come first, and then everything else.”

Zelensky said Ukrainians must “know — not just believe, but know — that in the future Russian aggression will be impossible or that if it does happen, we will not be alone.”

#zelensky #peace #talks #putin

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As Ukraine Botched Up Peace Talks Russia Shelled Ukrainian Military Sites

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Russia has fired dozens of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles at military targets in Ukraine.

Zelensky said the Kremlin launched 297 drones and almost 50 missiles on Sunday, the latest in a series of overnight strikes.

He said that a “significant part” of them had been shot down, and called on the Allies to strengthen the country's air defenses against enemy attacks.

The President of Ukraine stated: “Moscow continues to invest more in strikes than in diplomacy. This time, Russian targets included not only energy facilities, but also logistics, in particular railway infrastructure and municipal water supply infrastructure.”

The Kremlin systematically attacks the Ukrainian military, leaving more than ten thousand people dead.

people in Kiev remain without electricity. Other cities were repeatedly hit, including Odessa and Kharkiv; while temperatures dropped to -22 °C (-7.6°F) in the coldest winter in recent years.

Zelensky said that the Russian aerial bombardments did not stop, despite the negotiations mediated by the United States with Russia, which took place in Geneva last week.

The Kremlin wants Ukraine to cede territory in the eastern part of Donbas that its troops have failed to conquer, and this is not the first step for Kiev.

The intense shelling occurred amid escalating tensions between Ukraine and neighboring Slovakia and Hungary. Budapest is threatening to block a new package of European Union sanctions, while Bratislava says it will stop supplying electricity to Ukraine on Monday.

Both countries are demanding the resumption of Russian oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine. Kiev says a Russian drone attack in January damaged a pipeline carrying oil to Central Europe.

EU foreign ministers are set to meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss the bloc's 20th round of sanctions against Moscow, which they hope will be approved by Tuesday's fourth anniversary of the invasion.

#ukraine #pesce #talks #russia #military #sites

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The Hungarian government claims that Zelensky is delaying the repair work. In a video posted on social media, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said: “Until the Ukrainians resume oil supplies to Hungary, we will not allow important decisions to be made for them.”

In an article on X, Robert Fico, Slovakia's Moscow-friendly prime minister, accused Zelensky of “malicious behavior.” The oil supply disruptions “led to further losses and logistical difficulties,” Fico said.

If supplies do not resume by Monday, Slovakia will stop emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, he added.

According to the National Police of Ukraine, as a result of the latest Russian strikes, one person was killed and a dozen more people, including four children, were injured.

A rocket destroyed a private two-storey house in the Kiev suburb of Sofiyevskaya Borshchagovka. On Sunday, rescuers were clearing the rubble, while firefighters were hosing down the area.

Yana Terleeva, 44, said she woke up to the sound of rockets whistling, sirens wailing and a loud explosion.

The medic said, “We realized that a rocket had landed nearby. Later, we saw that the neighboring house, where ordinary people lived, was completely destroyed. There are no military installations here.”

She added: “Russia is a terrorist country that will not stop. We have seen how for four years in a row, and for a total of more than 11 years, Russia has been attacking civilians. Ukrainians want to be independent and free. We are a good nation, we are resisting, but we cannot stand alone in this war.”

Authorities in the western city of Lviv said they were treating Sunday's massive explosion as a terrorist act.

Around midnight, an explosion occurred on the central shopping street of Lviv, not far from the Lviv Opera House. A 23-year-old police officer was killed, another 25 people were injured, 14 of them were taken to the hospital.

According to unconfirmed reports, the store received a report of a break-in. When the police arrived at the scene, a bomb went off, which was soon followed by a second explosion, which killed emergency workers. Law enforcement agencies arrested several people.

In an interview on Friday, Zelensky told the Agence France-Presse news agency that Ukraine was “definitely not losing.” According to him, victory remains the goal, noting that Ukrainian troops recently retook about 116 square miles (300 square kilometers) of territory in the south of the Zaporizhia region.

Speaking in Rome on Sunday, Pope Leo XIV called the establishment of peace in Ukraine an “urgent necessity.” In his usual Sunday address to the crowd in St. Peter's Square, he said: “Peace cannot be postponed (...) He must find a response in the hearts and be embodied in responsible decisions.

“I resolutely repeat my call: let the weapons be silenced, let the bombing cease, let a ceasefire be reached without delay, and let dialogue strengthen, which will pave the way for peace.”

#ukraine #pesce #talks #russia #military #sites

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Iran Could Find Itself Heading For a Big War Against the US

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High-stakes talks between the US and Iran over the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme ended on Thursday without a deal, as the White House weighs a military operation that would mark its largest intervention in the Middle East in decades.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, claimed “good progress” had been made at the talks and Omani mediators predicted negotiations would reconvene at a technical level next week in Vienna.

But there was no immediate evidence to support suggestions that the two sides had drawn closer on the fundamental issues of Iran’s right to enrich uranium and the future of its highly enriched uranium stocks.

Nonetheless, the Iranian and Omani mediators sought to cast the talks in a hopeful light, likely seeking to avert a US threat to launch strikes from its fleet of aircraft and warships that have massed in the region.

Araghchi described the talks as “one of our most intense and longest rounds of negotiations”. He confirmed that further contacts would take place in less than a week.

The indirect talks in Geneva were held in two sessions, with reports that the US team led by Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, had been disappointed by the proposals put forward by Iran.

The brevity of the second session of talks appeared ominous, observers said.

Iranian officials rounded on reports in US media that suggested Tehran would be required to end enrichment and allow its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to leave Iran.

At one point, to the frustration of Tehran’s team, Witkoff had to break off his talks with Araghchi, to drive across the Swiss city to meet Ukrainian negotiators.

The Omani mediators rejected the suggestion of a breakdown, claiming new and creative ideas were being exchanged with an unprecedented openness in what was being billed as a third decisive round of indirect consultations.

The US is demanding permanent Iranian guarantees on uranium enrichment and inspection mechanisms that will satisfy Washington that Tehran will never be able to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has always denied having such a goal.

#us #iran #war #talks #nuclear #missiles

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The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has also said Iran’s refusal to discuss its ballistic missile programme is a problem, prompting Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, to complain about inconsistencies in the US negotiating demands.

The talks are being held against the backdrop of Trump’s unprecedented buildup of US assets in the region, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, attack aircraft, plane-refuelling equipment and submarines equipped with Tomahawk missiles.

At heart of the talks is whether the US will try to debar Tehran from almost all uranium enrichment. The right to enrich uranium domestically has long been seen as a symbol of Iranian national sovereignty, and was conceded by the US in the 2015 nuclear deal.

Some of the dispute about enrichment can be deferred since Trump claimed that Iran’s three main nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan had been obliterated by US bombs last June, making it technically impossible to enrich uranium in high quantities for the foreseeable future.

Tehran refused to allow the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the scale of the damage to the sites since the US attack.

Rubio said on Wednesday: “They’re not enriching right now, but they’re trying to get to the point where they ultimately can.”

One Iranian official in Geneva insisted: “The principles of zero enrichment for ever, dismantling of nuclear facilities and transferring uranium stocks to the US is completely rejected.”

Trump now has the military assets in place to strike Iran either as part of an extended assault designed to enforce regime change, or to carry out a more targeted strike designed to force Tehran into a more flexible negotiating position.

Trump’s coercive negotiating deadlines have always been flexible, but his military commanders will not want to keep such a large and expensive concentration of forces on a leash for much longer.

Rubio said on Wednesday that the ballistic missile programme would have to be addressed at some point, an admission that the subject may not be on the immediate agenda, but could not be disbarred from later talks.

He said: “Iran refuses to discuss the range of its missiles with us or anyone else, and this is a big problem for us. Iran has missiles that increase their range every year, and this could be a threat to the United States because the range of the missiles may reach American soil.” Its short-range missiles could also hit US bases in the region, he noted.

#us #iran #war #talks #nuclear #missiles

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Will Trump Bully Tehran Into Submission ?

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Trump said on Sunday he was prepared to talk to what was left of the Iranian leadership after the killing of the country’s supreme leader by US-Israeli airstrikes aimed at overthrowing the regime.
Trump was speaking as a second day of intense bombing of Iranian cities and Tehran’s missile counterattacks sent tremors across the region and through the global economy.

On Monday the conflict spread to Lebanon as Israel began striking Hezbollah targets, after the group launched missiles and drones towards Israel’s north in retaliation for the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, who was also an adviser to the country’s former supreme leader, said on Monday that Tehran would not negotiate with the US, and denied reports that officials had sought to initiate talks with the Trump administration.

Amir-Saeid Iravani, the Iranian ambassador to the UN, told an emergency security council meeting on Saturday that hundreds of civilians had been killed or injured in the US-Israeli strikes. He said they had deliberately targeted civilian neighbourhoods in multiple cities.

The death toll is expected to climb after a second day of bombing. Iranian state media said that 165 people had been confirmed dead in a bomb attack on a girls’ primary school in the southern city of Minab on Saturday.

Among the dead was Khamenei, who had ruled as Iran’s supreme leader since 1989 and was the primary target of an initial Israeli strike on Saturday morning.

According to several US reports, the CIA had been tracking Khamenei for months. The New York Times reported that the CIA tipped off Israel when the leader convened a meeting of top defence aides at his compound in Tehran, triggering a decision to strike.

Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the Israeli army employed a ruse to put the Iranian leadership off its guard. On the morning of the operation, army officers were asked not to park their cars in their usual spaces to avoid detection by Iran’s spies. Misinformation was also leaked suggesting that the chief of staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir had stayed at home.

The channel cited officials as saying the Israeli air force killed 30 high-ranking Iranian officials within the first 30 seconds of the attack.

Trump told Fox News that 48 Iranian leaders had been killed in the first two days of bombing, and claimed in a social media post that nine Iranian warships had been sunk and the naval headquarters destroyed.

“The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates (…) It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead,” Trump said, according to Karl’s reports.

Nine Israelis have so far died in Iranian missile counterstrikes, and US forces confirmed their first casualties of the war: three dead and five injured by shrapnel. The official announcement did not give details on where and how the casualties occurred.

#trump #iran #talks #tehran #pezeshkian

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Iran has also targeted Gulf countries that host US military bases. Airports in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Dubai were damaged by missiles and remained shut on Sunday, causing one of global aviation’s most severe disruptions in years.

“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” he told the Atlantic magazine, without revealing when those talks may start.

“They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long.”

In remarks to the Daily Mail, Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could go on for the next four weeks. He also said there could be more American casualties and vowed to avenge American deaths.

He was speaking as the global effects of the war began to be felt. The price of oil rose after two reported attacks on tankers in or near the strait of Hormuz.

The ship attacks were a reminder of the conflict’s potential to trigger an environmental catastrophe.

In launching the war, Trump said it would provide an opportunity for the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the 47-year-old Islamic regime.

Nationwide protests earlier this year were brutally suppressed by security forces, and some estimates say tens of thousands of civilians were killed.

The Iranian authorities said that 22 border guards at Mehran, on the Iranian-Iraqi border, had been killed, a sign that the US and Israel were seeking to weaken the regime’s control of Iran’s borders in support of anti-government separatists.

Across the country, Iranians said they felt a mixture of terror and optimism as the bombings continued. Some expressed relief that the long-expected strikes had arrived and opponents of the regime spoke of hope that they may lead to political change.

Both were tempered by fear that the attacks would bring more civilian deaths to a country already reeling from recent bloodshed.

Larijani accused the US and Israel of trying to plunder and fragment Iran and warned “secessionist groups” of a harsh response if they attempted to intervene, state television said.

The regime in Tehran insisted that Khamenei’s killing would not weaken its resolve. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Netanyahu and Trump had “crossed a red line” and “will pay for it”, according to state media.

Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said a leadership council composed of himself, the judiciary head and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of supreme leader until a replacement was chosen.

Trump shrugged off the suggestion that the economic fallout from the war could damage the Republican party’s prospects in November’s congressional elections.

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Vance Is Flying To Islamabad For the Second Round Of Peace Talks

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Vance is flying to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.

Vance will travel with Witkoff, Kushner, the president’s son-in-law – though Iran’s president warned there remained a “deep historical mistrust” of the US.

Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was concerned about “unconstructive and contradictory signals from American officials” and concluded they amounted to an effort to seek the country’s surrender. “Iranians do not submit to force,” he said.

However, one senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency that Tehran was “positively reviewing” its participation, amid reports that its delegation would again be headed by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf if Vance attends.

Ghalibaf said later that Iran would not accept negotiations with the US while under threat, adding in the post on X early on Tuesday that “we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

He also accused Trump of seeking to “turn this negotiating table – in his own imagination – into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering.”

Tehran called for an end to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump repeated a demand that Iran should never be allowed to build a nuclear weapon and even said he would be willing to meet Iranian leaders himself.

Earlier, the US president had confused the situation by telling the New York Post that Vance and his team were “heading over now” and he expected them to be arriving in Islamabad that evening.

That was quickly corrected by US officials who said while there had been a discussion about Vance leaving on Monday, the vice-president was in fact expected to depart on Tuesday morning if the talks were taking place.

A second round of high-stakes discussions to end a war begun by US and Israeli bombing at the end of February could – if they go ahead – take place on Wednesday, with the threat of renewed outbreak of fighting in the background.

Trump said he now considers the two-week ceasefire with Iran ends “Wednesday evening Washington time”, extending the pause for an extra 24 hours to allow the critical meeting in Islamabad to take place.

Vance led the US team during 21 hours of failed discussions with Iran earlier in the month, which collapsed after Iran would not agree to US demands to end nuclear enrichment and hand over its 440kg of highly enriched uranium.

The Iranians had said there remained a deficit of trust with the US, and wanted assurances they would not be attacked again if a final agreement was reached.

#vance #peace #talks #islamabad #iran #lebanon

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Though Iran was intensively bombed during the five-week US-Israel joint campaign, Tehran’s leadership does not believe it has been defeated.

Pakistan has been preparing for possible negotiations since Sunday, setting up a security lockdown and suspending public transport in the capital.

Islamabad’s electricity board also promised that power cuts would be suspended in the city while negotiations continue.

Power cuts lasting six to seven hours a day have become typical in cities across Pakistan as the country grapples with oil and gas shortages caused by the double closure of the strait of Hormuz by Iran and the US.

Trump had imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in response to Iran’s decision to charge tolls on merchant shipping crossing the strategic waterway, and on Sunday the US military seized an Iranian-flagged container ship trying to cross, raising concerns an escalation of hostilities would prevent peace talks resuming.

US central command said the Touska had been seized after its crew had ignored six hours of warnings. Its engines were disabled by fire from a US destroyer and it was then captured by marines from the USS Tripoli, arriving by helicopter and roping down on to the merchant vessel.

Though Iran had briefly lifted its own blockade on Friday, it reimposed it again on Saturday because the US would not lift its counter-blockade.

One tanker in the region was attacked by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Saturday and a second container ship was struck by an unknown projectile.

Commercial shipping was once again at a near standstill in the strait. Three tankers made the crossing on Monday – after 18 ships had transited on Saturday – and the price of Brent crude oil was up by $5 to more than $95 on Monday, reflecting the renewed maritime danger.

Israel and Lebanon are due to hold a second round of ambassador level talks in Washington on Thursday, the US state department said, the first discussions between the two countries since a 10-day ceasefire in the theatre was announced last week.

Israel also told residents of southern Lebanon to stay out of a zone of territory next to the border, and warned people not to approach the area of the Litani River, as it sought to consolidate its military grip on the area while the ceasefire is ongoing.

A map posted by the country’s military on social media marked a red line through 21 villages across the south, covering an area 5km to 10km from the border.

#vance #peace #talks #islamabad #iran #lebanon

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“Why Should I Clean Your Shit?”

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Trump left China on Friday after a much-hyped summit of the world’s two major powers that was rich in pageantry and promises of stability, but offered little by way of tangible progress.

The US president had gone into the two-day talks with China’s Xi Jinping weakened by his prolonged war in Iran, and did little to change the perception that he and his nation are diminished on the global stage.

Instead it was Xi who delivered the sharpest rhetoric of the meeting – over the future status of the self-governing island of Taiwan, with Trump notably failing to push back.

In his final remarks in Beijing on Friday, Trump did claim that the US and China struck “fantastic trade deals”, although details were scarce, and that he and Xi settled “a lot of different problems”.

But critics are likely to suggest that the carefully choreographed summit – attended by tech executives including Musk of Tesla and Tim Cook of Apple, as well as Trump’s son, Eric – was more performative than substantive, with no major breakthrough on Iran, Taiwan or the countries’ AI arms race.

Instead, as he departed, Trump posted on his Truth Social network: “China has a Ballroom, and so should the U.S.A.!” – a reference to his long-running campaign to build a $400m ballroom at the White House.

But he will return to Washington to find that the war in Iran still poses a major political headache. There is much speculation about how much pressure the US is putting on China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, to use its leverage with Iran to encourage the country to reopen the strait of Hormuz. And there is a question mark over whether or not Beijing would be willing to accede to that pressure.

Speaking alongside Xi at the Zhongnanhai garden in Beijing on Friday, Trump said: “We did discuss Iran. We feel very similar about [how] we want it to end. We don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open.”

The White House readout of the more than two hours of talks between Trump and Xi on Thursday said the leaders “agreed that the strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy” and that “President Xi also made clear China’s opposition to the militarisation of the strait”.

China’s foreign ministry on Friday again called for a ceasefire in Iran and said the strait of Hormuz should be opened “as soon as possible”.

About half of China’s crude oil passes through the waterway, but the bigger threat for the Chinese economy is if the conflict in the Middle East causes a global recession that dents demand for its exports.

But many in Beijing feel that the crisis in Iran is not China’s responsibility.

Zhou Bo, a retired senior army colonel and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: “On Iran, China definitely wants to help but I read what Rubio said: he actually seems to shift the burden to the Chinese side. In China, we have a saying: it is like, ‘Why should I clean your shit?’”

#talks #china #xijinping #trum #visit #taiwan

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Beijing made it clear that Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China claims as part of its territory, was a top priority during this week’s meeting. Xi warned Trump that their countries could have “clashes and even conflicts” if Taiwan was not handled properly, calling it the most important issue in US-China relations.

On Friday Trump insisted that “nothing’s changed” about the US policy on Taiwan, while admitting that he may not approve a major arms sale for the self-governing island. Speaking to Fox News on the flight back to the US, the president said he made no commitment regarding the island, adding: “I don’t think there’s a conflict on Taiwan.”

Xi sees unifying Taiwan with China as a core part of his legacy and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve that goal. Top of Beijing’s wishlist regarding Taiwan is for the US to stop supplying the island with defensive weaponry.

Trump said on Air Force One he had not determined whether to move forward on a major arms package for Taiwan that is planned for this year.

Trump was making the first US presidential visit to China in nearly a decade and revelled in the hospitality, including an immaculate arrival ceremony, tour of the Temple of Heaven and lavish state banquet in the Great Hall of the People, where Xi told Trump that China’s “great rejuvenation” could go “hand in hand” with “Make America great again”.

Meeting for a working tea and lunch in the Zhongnanhai garden on Friday, Trump admired the roses, and said that Xi had promised to send him some seeds for the White House rose garden.

Trump: “We’ve settled a lot of different problems that other people wouldn’t have been able to solve.”

There was scant mention of human rights on the trip, although Trump told Fox News on the flight back from Beijing that Xi said he was “seriously considering” releasing jailed pastors in China.

That would probably include Ezra Jin, a pastor who was arrested last year amid a sweeping crackdown on Christians. But Trump said that the case of Jimmy Lai, a democracy activist jailed in Hong Kong, was a “tough one”.

Julian Gewirtz, a former director for China on the national security council during the Biden administration, said the new Chinese formulation about US-China relations was about “locking in this current phase of strategic stalemate for the remainder of Trump’s term and ideally beyond”.

“Xi Jinping has been working for years to be ready for this moment, to bring an American president to Beijing as a peer, widely acknowledged as such around the world. And now it is happening,” Gerwirtz said.

Wu Xinbo, a professor of international studies at Fudan University and a Chinese government adviser, said the balance of power between the US and China was “shifting towards greater parity”.

In the past, it always seemed as though the United States held the upper hand, constantly exerting pressure on China and taking the offensive. Now, however, it’s fair to say that the two countries have reached a new point of equilibrium,” Wu said.

Asked for their views on Trump, the word that came up again and again from Beijingers was “unpredictable”.

“What he says isn’t necessarily what it means,” said one Trump-watcher, who declined to give his name.

#talks #china #xijinping #trum #visit #taiwan

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Iran or Trump: Who Did Scuttle a Peace Deal?

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Iran has indicated it will suspend peace talks with the US in protest against Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, threatening the collapse of negotiations with Washington as the two sides skirmished amid a faltering ceasefire.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said “unequivocal violation of the ceasefire on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts” and the US and Israel would be held responsible.

A news agency aligned to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran was suspending its participation in talks designed to end the blockade of the strait of Hormuz.

Trump has said the US was not yet informed of Iran suspending talks but suggested he was not opposed to a halt in negotiations.

“I think we’ve been talking too much, if you want to know the truth,” the US president told NBC News. “I think going silent would be very good, and that could be for a long time.”

The US would not begin another military escalation immediately if negotiations fell through, Trump added, but would maintain its blockade on Iranian ports. “It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there,” he said. “We’ll just go silent. We’ll keep the blockade. [The] blockade is a piece of steel.”

The apparent collapse of talks followed the US hitting Iranian radar and drone sites at the weekend and Tehran on Monday saying it had countered by targeting a military base in Kuwait that it claimed was involved in the US operation.

Trump last week said the US was ready to lift its blockade on Iranian ports as part of a peace deal with Iran that never materialised.

Iran’s suspension of talks indicates the anger in Tehran over Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, which threatened to intensify on Monday as Israel issued evacuation orders for residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Iran’s military central command warned residents of northern Israel to leave in the event that Israel carried out attacks on Beirut or its southern suburbs. Kuwait has advised all citizens to stay indoors due to an imminent likely attack.

The Iranian army warned that if Benjamin Netanyahu went ahead with the bombing of Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut, or the city, then residents of northern Israel and military targets elsewhere inside Israel would be attacked.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said Tehran would ask the Houthis in northern Yemen to mount a second shipping blockade in the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The tension has led to the oil price to rise once again reaching close to $100 a barrel.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator and speaker of parliament, said the US blockade of Iranian ports and Israeli actions in Lebanon were “clear evidence of US non-compliance” with the ceasefire. “Every choice has a price, and the bill comes due. It will all fall into place,” he added.

#trump #tehran #peace #talks #iran

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The US and Iran have exchanged strikes since their planned ceasefire took effect in early April. The on-off diplomacy appeared to have reached the point of a deal on Friday only for Trump to pull back, demanding revisions to the outline agreement.

In a sign of European concern that the ceasefire may be on the verge of the collapse, Macron, spoke on Sunday to Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as to Trump and almost every major Arab leader. He urged them to recognise the necessity of a ceasefire in Lebanon and for the strait of Hormuz to be reopened to resume the transit of oil.

Macron suggested Europe could help provide expertise for the talks on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.

In remarks that will infuriate those that believe an agreement on the strait is urgent for the world economy, Trump in a social media post told Americans: “Just sit back and relax. It will work out in the end. It always does.”

The president is under pressure from his own side to show the war has ended Iran’s nuclear programme, even if it did not end the country’s regime. He has come close to admitting the attack on Iran was a mistake.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, defended its strikes on US-linked military facilities, arguing that countries hosting bases used in attacks against Iran could not evade responsibility.

He said chaos in Washington was producing contradictory negotiating positions and insisted Iran would defer any discussions on its nuclear programme until after the strait had been opened.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, urged Oman not to give into US threats, adding “it is in the country’s interests to cooperate with the systems considered by Iran because the cost of providing maritime services is much less than the cost of wartime insurance and there is no plan for stoppages, inspection or seizure”.

A 14-point memorandum of understanding struck by negotiators proposes a ceasefire for 60 days while talks continue over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Pezeshkian has been sending out repeated messages that Iran needs to be prepared for difficult economic times, with inflation at 53.9% on an annualised basis.

Trump has said a key aim in the war was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon with its highly enriched uranium. Tehran has consistently denied it had plans to do that.

The president appears increasingly isolated as his military venture edges toward an outcome that many analysts view as a strategic setback.

He is under pressure to reopen the strait of Hormuz and get US fuel costs down before the November congressional elections, as voters show increasing frustration over rising prices. At the same time, he faces a potential backlash from Iran hawks in his own party over concessions to Tehran.

The two sides remain at odds on several other issues, such as Tehran’s demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks.

#trump #tehran #peace #talks #iran

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