Trump's Tariffs Undermine the Post-War World Order his week, President Donald Trump announced a comprehensive set of tariffs affecting nearly all U.S. trading partners.
This policy includes a 20 percent tariff on goods from the European Union and an additional 34 percent tariff on imports from China.
Combined with existing measures, this results in a cumulative tariff rate of at least 54 percent on Chinese imports, which could be even more if we count the administration’s 25 percent tariff on imports from countries that continue to import Venezuelan oil.
Branded as America’s “Liberation Day,” Trump’s initiative fundamentally reshapes the global trade landscape.
While its economic consequences remain uncertain, one feature of the policy stands out: it is structured around several principles of game theory.
It leverages power asymmetries, imposes strict time constraints, and fragments coordination among trading partners.
In doing so, it reframes global post-war trade as a multi-actor negotiation game, rather than a rules-based system.
#Trump #tariffs #world #order
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This policy includes a 20 percent tariff on goods from the European Union and an additional 34 percent tariff on imports from China.
Combined with existing measures, this results in a cumulative tariff rate of at least 54 percent on Chinese imports, which could be even more if we count the administration’s 25 percent tariff on imports from countries that continue to import Venezuelan oil.
Branded as America’s “Liberation Day,” Trump’s initiative fundamentally reshapes the global trade landscape.
While its economic consequences remain uncertain, one feature of the policy stands out: it is structured around several principles of game theory.
It leverages power asymmetries, imposes strict time constraints, and fragments coordination among trading partners.
In doing so, it reframes global post-war trade as a multi-actor negotiation game, rather than a rules-based system.
#Trump #tariffs #world #order
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🥅⚽️Trump celebrated with the British football Chelsea its victory in the Club World Cup. The game was held in the United States.
Trump broke a long-standing football tradition, as VIPs usually leave the podium after the trophy is awarded to the winning team, and only the winning players raise the trophy above their heads.
However, Trump decided that the celebration would be incomplete without him, and he remained until the end, despite FIFA President Infantino's attempts to guide him away and the team captain's expressive gaze.
Next year, the United States, Canada, and Mexico will host the FIFA World Cup. The winners will not be able to celebrate their victory without Trump.
#Chelsea #victory #World #Cup #trump
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Trump broke a long-standing football tradition, as VIPs usually leave the podium after the trophy is awarded to the winning team, and only the winning players raise the trophy above their heads.
However, Trump decided that the celebration would be incomplete without him, and he remained until the end, despite FIFA President Infantino's attempts to guide him away and the team captain's expressive gaze.
Next year, the United States, Canada, and Mexico will host the FIFA World Cup. The winners will not be able to celebrate their victory without Trump.
#Chelsea #victory #World #Cup #trump
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The War Against the Weak: Killing Women and Children Around the World
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
Thirty women were sheltering in the Saudi maternity hospital in El Fasher, Sudan, on 28 October when the massacre began. Some had just given birth and others were still in labour.
Working at the hospital that night, lab technician Abdo-Rabo Ahmed, 28, was one of the few known survivors. “I heard the voices of women and children screaming,” he says. “They were killing everybody inside the hospital. Those of us who were able to run, did.”
In one of the most horrifying incidents of the north African country’s two-year civil war, armed soldiers from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been fighting the Sudanese army, stormed the hospital, reportedly killing more than 460 patients and their companions.
It was “an unspeakable atrocity”, say rights groups, and one of the worst recent examples of the collapse in protection for the hundreds of millions of civilians trapped in areas of conflict in Ukraine, Gaza, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sudan.
All major powers are signatories to the Geneva conventions, which commit them to protecting civilians from warring parties, yet in the past year there has been a record number of attacks on healthcare systems.
Women going through childbirth are particularly vulnerable due to their need to access locally available services.
As well as killing women and skilled staff, the attacks are destroying maternal and neonatal care facilities and posing a threat to countries’ ability to repopulate.
In Gaza, a UN commission has cited the impact on the right to reproductive health as one of the reasons for declaring Israel’s actions a genocide.
Even after the October ceasefire, doctors in Gaza say women and children continue to die from inadequate care, due to shortages of medicine and equipment.
A UN agency official has said he received reports of women in Gaza giving birth in the rubble beside roads because they could not access a hospital.
“We’ve had rockets and shells fired directly at the wards, operating rooms and maternity wards,” says Dr Adnan Radi, head of the gynecology and obstetrics departments at al-Awda hospital.
A spokesperson for the Israeli military says it does not deliberately target maternity care facilities and does not seek to affect the birthrate of Gaza’s civilian population.
“The reality is that every facility can be under attack now. Air defence tries to protect critical infrastructure, but if the drone is shot down, the debris may fall on a hospital,” says Dr. Radi.
For more than 676 million women who live within 50km of a deadly conflict there are few safeguards, or war crimes prosecutions for those targeting maternity care.
#women #children #world #myanmar #hunger
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Thirty women were sheltering in the Saudi maternity hospital in El Fasher, Sudan, on 28 October when the massacre began. Some had just given birth and others were still in labour.
Working at the hospital that night, lab technician Abdo-Rabo Ahmed, 28, was one of the few known survivors. “I heard the voices of women and children screaming,” he says. “They were killing everybody inside the hospital. Those of us who were able to run, did.”
In one of the most horrifying incidents of the north African country’s two-year civil war, armed soldiers from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been fighting the Sudanese army, stormed the hospital, reportedly killing more than 460 patients and their companions.
It was “an unspeakable atrocity”, say rights groups, and one of the worst recent examples of the collapse in protection for the hundreds of millions of civilians trapped in areas of conflict in Ukraine, Gaza, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sudan.
All major powers are signatories to the Geneva conventions, which commit them to protecting civilians from warring parties, yet in the past year there has been a record number of attacks on healthcare systems.
Women going through childbirth are particularly vulnerable due to their need to access locally available services.
As well as killing women and skilled staff, the attacks are destroying maternal and neonatal care facilities and posing a threat to countries’ ability to repopulate.
In Gaza, a UN commission has cited the impact on the right to reproductive health as one of the reasons for declaring Israel’s actions a genocide.
Even after the October ceasefire, doctors in Gaza say women and children continue to die from inadequate care, due to shortages of medicine and equipment.
A UN agency official has said he received reports of women in Gaza giving birth in the rubble beside roads because they could not access a hospital.
“We’ve had rockets and shells fired directly at the wards, operating rooms and maternity wards,” says Dr Adnan Radi, head of the gynecology and obstetrics departments at al-Awda hospital.
A spokesperson for the Israeli military says it does not deliberately target maternity care facilities and does not seek to affect the birthrate of Gaza’s civilian population.
“The reality is that every facility can be under attack now. Air defence tries to protect critical infrastructure, but if the drone is shot down, the debris may fall on a hospital,” says Dr. Radi.
For more than 676 million women who live within 50km of a deadly conflict there are few safeguards, or war crimes prosecutions for those targeting maternity care.
#women #children #world #myanmar #hunger
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The lack of accountability has created a “culture of impunity”, says Payal Shah, a human rights lawyer at the NGO Physicians for Human Rights.
“Attacks on reproductive healthcare, like forced pregnancy and forced sterilisation, can be understood as acts of genocide by preventing births or destroying the survival of a group.
El Fasher was cut off from humanitarian aid long before the attack on the Saudi maternity hospital, according to the World Health Organization, which says malnutrition is rising sharply, especially among children and pregnant women.
In the DRC, data on attacks has been limited by a lack of information coming out of rebel-occupied areas and unreliable access to the internet.
But shelling in the city of Goma in January hit the neonatal ward at Charity maternity hospital, killing mothers, babies and nurses. Nearby facilities were reportedly overwhelmed by casualties, many of them women and children.
In Myanmar, medical facilities have been bombed and dozens of midwives and patients have been arrested, killed or injured over the past two years during the country’s ongoing civil war.
Most maternal deaths are preventable using routine measures, say medical experts, but health systems can collapse during war, dismantling the conditions that make safe childbirth possible.
Rights groups say fear is also driving women away from facilities once considered safe, forcing them to take risks, such as giving birth at home without skilled assistance or access to emergency care.
“If maternity hospitals are being deliberately targeted then it speaks to a wider and more disturbing trend: the use of violence against hospitals as a weapon to spread fear and to tear apart the social fabric that holds communities together,” says Maarten Van Der Heijden, a lawyer and researcher at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
“There is no absolute protection for hospitals in war. Under the Geneva conventions, medical facilities can lose their safeguarded status if used for acts deemed ‘harmful to the enemy’, which has now become a standard defence.”
In Myanmar, medical facilities have been bombed and dozens of midwives and patients have been arrested, killed or injured over the past two years during the country’s ongoing civil war.
Most maternal deaths are preventable using routine measures, say medical experts, but health systems can collapse during war, dismantling the conditions that make safe childbirth possible.
Rights groups say fear is also driving women away from facilities once considered safe, forcing them to take risks, such as giving birth at home without skilled assistance or access to emergency care.
“If maternity hospitals are being deliberately targeted then it speaks to a wider and more disturbing trend: the use of violence against hospitals as a weapon to spread fear and to tear apart the social fabric that holds communities together,” says Maarten Van Der Heijden, a lawyer and researcher at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
“There is no absolute protection for hospitals in war. Under the Geneva conventions, medical facilities can lose their safeguarded status if used for acts deemed ‘harmful to the enemy’, which has now become a standard defence.”
#women #children #world #myanmar #hunger
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Trump: From a Peace Dove to a Stalwart of War
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
As Venezuela’s skyline lit up under US bombs, we were watching the morbid symptoms of a declining empire. That may sound counterintuitive.
After all, the US has kidnapped a foreign leader, and Donald Trump has announced that he will “run” Venezuela. Surely this looks less like decay than intoxication: a superpower high on its own force.
But Trump’s great virtue, if it can be called that, is candour. Previous US presidents draped naked self-interest in the language of “democracy” and “human rights”. Trump dispenses with the costume.
In 2023, he boasted: “When I left, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over, we would have gotten all that oil, it would have been right next door.” And this was no off-the-cuff remark.
The logic of an oil grab, and much more besides, is laid out plainly in Trump’s recently published National Security Strategy.
The document accepts something long denied in Washington: that US global hegemony is over.
“After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country,” it declares with barely concealed contempt.
“The days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over.” These are the strategy’s unceremonious funeral rites for US superpower status.
Thornberry speaking to press
Venezuela attack could embolden China and Russia, says Emily Thornberry.
What replaces it is a world of rival empires, each enforcing its own sphere of influence. And for the US, that sphere is the Americas.
“After years of neglect,” the strategy pronounces, “the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.”
The Monroe doctrine, formulated in the early 19th century, purported to block European colonialism. In practice, it laid the foundations for US domination over its Latin American back yard.
Violence in Latin America facilitated by Washington is hardly new. My parents took in refugees who had fled Chile’s rightwing dictatorship, installed after the socialist president Salvador Allende was overthrown in a CIA-backed coup.
“I don’t see why we need to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its people,” declared the then US secretary of state Henry Kissinger.
Similar logic underpinned US support for murderous regimes in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia, as well as across Central America and the Caribbean.
But in the last three decades, that domination has been challenged. The so-called “pink tide” of progressive governments, spearheaded by Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, sought to assert greater regional independence.
And, crucially, China – the main US rival – has grown in power across the continent. The two-way goods trade between China and Latin America was 259 times larger in 2023 than it was in 1990.
China is now the continent’s second largest trading partner, behind only the US. At the end of the cold war, it did not even make the top 10. Trump’s assault on Venezuela is just the opening move in an attempt to reverse all of this.
The experience of Trump’s first term has led too many to conclude that the strongman in the White House was all bluster.
Then, he reached an accommodation with the traditional Republican elite. The unwritten bargain was simple: deliver tax cuts and deregulation, and he could vent endlessly on social media. Second-term Trump is a full-fat far-right regime.
When he menaces the democratically elected presidents of Colombia and Mexico – believe him. When he declares, with barely concealed relish, that “Cuba is ready to fall,” believe him. And when he states, “We do need Greenland, absolutely”, believe him.
He really does intend to annex more than 2m sq km of European territory.
#trump #new #world #order #venezuela #maduro
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As Venezuela’s skyline lit up under US bombs, we were watching the morbid symptoms of a declining empire. That may sound counterintuitive.
After all, the US has kidnapped a foreign leader, and Donald Trump has announced that he will “run” Venezuela. Surely this looks less like decay than intoxication: a superpower high on its own force.
But Trump’s great virtue, if it can be called that, is candour. Previous US presidents draped naked self-interest in the language of “democracy” and “human rights”. Trump dispenses with the costume.
In 2023, he boasted: “When I left, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over, we would have gotten all that oil, it would have been right next door.” And this was no off-the-cuff remark.
The logic of an oil grab, and much more besides, is laid out plainly in Trump’s recently published National Security Strategy.
The document accepts something long denied in Washington: that US global hegemony is over.
“After the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country,” it declares with barely concealed contempt.
“The days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over.” These are the strategy’s unceremonious funeral rites for US superpower status.
Thornberry speaking to press
Venezuela attack could embolden China and Russia, says Emily Thornberry.
What replaces it is a world of rival empires, each enforcing its own sphere of influence. And for the US, that sphere is the Americas.
“After years of neglect,” the strategy pronounces, “the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.”
The Monroe doctrine, formulated in the early 19th century, purported to block European colonialism. In practice, it laid the foundations for US domination over its Latin American back yard.
Violence in Latin America facilitated by Washington is hardly new. My parents took in refugees who had fled Chile’s rightwing dictatorship, installed after the socialist president Salvador Allende was overthrown in a CIA-backed coup.
“I don’t see why we need to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its people,” declared the then US secretary of state Henry Kissinger.
Similar logic underpinned US support for murderous regimes in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia, as well as across Central America and the Caribbean.
But in the last three decades, that domination has been challenged. The so-called “pink tide” of progressive governments, spearheaded by Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, sought to assert greater regional independence.
And, crucially, China – the main US rival – has grown in power across the continent. The two-way goods trade between China and Latin America was 259 times larger in 2023 than it was in 1990.
China is now the continent’s second largest trading partner, behind only the US. At the end of the cold war, it did not even make the top 10. Trump’s assault on Venezuela is just the opening move in an attempt to reverse all of this.
The experience of Trump’s first term has led too many to conclude that the strongman in the White House was all bluster.
Then, he reached an accommodation with the traditional Republican elite. The unwritten bargain was simple: deliver tax cuts and deregulation, and he could vent endlessly on social media. Second-term Trump is a full-fat far-right regime.
When he menaces the democratically elected presidents of Colombia and Mexico – believe him. When he declares, with barely concealed relish, that “Cuba is ready to fall,” believe him. And when he states, “We do need Greenland, absolutely”, believe him.
He really does intend to annex more than 2m sq km of European territory.
#trump #new #world #order #venezuela #maduro
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If – when – Greenland is swallowed by a Trumpian empire, what then? Trump will have noted the pitifully weak European response to his brazenly illegal assault on Venezuela.
But a US seizure of Danish sovereign territory would surely spell the end of Nato, founded on the principle of collective defence.
Denmark’s land would be stolen no less blatantly than Russia’s devouring of Ukraine. Whatever muted noises have emerged from London, Paris or Berlin, the western alliance would be finished.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, US elites convinced themselves they were militarily invincible and that their economic model marked the endpoint of human development.
That hubris led directly to catastrophe in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, and the financial crash of 2008. US elites promised their people utopian dreams, and then dragged them from one disaster to another. Trumpism itself emerged from the resulting mass disillusionment.
But the “America First” response to US decline is to abandon global dominance in favour of a hemispheric empire.
What does that leave the US itself? When the US defeated Spain at the end of the 19th century and seized the Philippines, leading dignitaries founded the American Anti-Imperialist League.
“We hold that the policy known as imperialism is hostile to liberty and tends toward militarism,” they declared, “an evil from which it has been our glory to be free.”
“We assert that no nation can long endure half republic and half empire,” the Democratic party asserted in the 1900 presidential election, “and we warn the American people that imperialism abroad will lead quickly and inevitably to despotism at home.”
In the end, informal empire replaced direct colonialism, and American democracy – always deeply flawed – endured.
Who would dismiss such warnings as exaggeration now? What happens abroad cannot be divorced from what happens at home.
This is the imperial “boomerang”, as Martinican author Aimé Césaire defined it three quarters of a century ago, analysing how European colonialism returned to the continent in the form of fascism.
We have already watched the “war on terror” boomerang in this way: its language and logic repurposed for domestic repression.
“The Democrat party is not a political party,” Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, declared last summer. “It is a domestic extremist organisation.”
National guard troops are dispatched into Democratic-run cities like occupying forces, echoing the “surges” once unleashed on Afghanistan or Iraq.
Seen this way, Trump’s indulgence of Russian ambitions in Ukraine is hardly mysterious. Back in 2019, Russia reportedly proposed offering increased US influence in Venezuela in exchange for the US retreating from Ukraine.
Who knows if such a deal has been made. What is certainly true is that a new world order is being born. It is one where increasingly authoritarian powers use brute force to subjugate their neighbours and steal their resources.
What once might have sounded like dystopian fantasy is being assembled in plain sight. The question is whether we have the means, willingness and ability to fight back.
#trump #new #world #order #venezuela #maduro
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Mark Carney: The Present World Order Is Over
Canadian prime minister Carney has said that the US-led global system of governance is enduring “a rupture,” defined by great power competition and a “fading” rules-based order.
His speech to political and financial elites at the World Economic Forum comes a day before US President Donald Trump was set to address the gathering in Davos, Switzerland.
Since entering Canadian politics in 2025, Carney has repeatedly warned that the world was not going to return to a pre-Trump normal. He re-affirmed that message on Tuesday, in a speech that did not name Trump but offered an analysis of the president’s impact on global affairs.
He noted that Canada had benefited from the old “rules-based international order,” including from “American hegemony” that “helped provide public goods: open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.”
A new reality has set in, Carney said.
“Call it what it is: a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion.”
In an apparent warning against efforts to appease major powers, Carney said countries like Canada can no longer hope that “compliance will buy safety.”
“It won’t,” he said.
Trump brutally mocked the Europeans before heading to the World Economic Forum, where he will be the star of a dark, self-made drama over the fate of the autonomous Danish territory.
Asked on Tuesday how far he was prepared to go to acquire Greenland from Denmark, a fellow Nato member, Trump replied: “You’ll find out.”
But leaders in the Swiss ski resort have closed ranks against Trump’s aggressive America First stance, with French President Emmanuel Macron vowing to stand up against “bullies” and the EU promising an “unflinching” response.
Macron said that now was “not a time for new imperialism or new colonialism”, criticising the “useless aggressivity” of Trump’s pledge to levy tariffs on countries that opposed a US takeover of Greenland.
Greenland’s prime minister said on Tuesday his tiny population of 57,000 must be prepared for military force.
Carney delivered his Davos speech after Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper reported that the country’s military has developed a model response to a US invasion of Canada.
Citing two unnamed senior government officials, the paper said the Canadian response model centres on insurgency-style tactics, like those used in Afghanistan by fighters who resisted Soviet and later US forces.
After Trump’s 2024 election and in the early months of his new term, he repeatedly referred to the US’s northern neighbour as the 51st state and said a merger would benefit Canada.
Trump’s annexation talk has eased in recent months, but overnight he posted an image on his social media platform of a map showing Canada and Venezuela covered in the US flag, implying a full American takeover of both countries.
The Davos meeting has been overshadowed by Trump’s threats to enforce US control over Greenland, with the president vowing that his plan for the autonomous Danish territory was irreversible.
#carney #world #order #greenland #danish #trump
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Canadian prime minister Carney has said that the US-led global system of governance is enduring “a rupture,” defined by great power competition and a “fading” rules-based order.
His speech to political and financial elites at the World Economic Forum comes a day before US President Donald Trump was set to address the gathering in Davos, Switzerland.
Since entering Canadian politics in 2025, Carney has repeatedly warned that the world was not going to return to a pre-Trump normal. He re-affirmed that message on Tuesday, in a speech that did not name Trump but offered an analysis of the president’s impact on global affairs.
He noted that Canada had benefited from the old “rules-based international order,” including from “American hegemony” that “helped provide public goods: open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.”
A new reality has set in, Carney said.
“Call it what it is: a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion.”
In an apparent warning against efforts to appease major powers, Carney said countries like Canada can no longer hope that “compliance will buy safety.”
“It won’t,” he said.
Trump brutally mocked the Europeans before heading to the World Economic Forum, where he will be the star of a dark, self-made drama over the fate of the autonomous Danish territory.
Asked on Tuesday how far he was prepared to go to acquire Greenland from Denmark, a fellow Nato member, Trump replied: “You’ll find out.”
But leaders in the Swiss ski resort have closed ranks against Trump’s aggressive America First stance, with French President Emmanuel Macron vowing to stand up against “bullies” and the EU promising an “unflinching” response.
Macron said that now was “not a time for new imperialism or new colonialism”, criticising the “useless aggressivity” of Trump’s pledge to levy tariffs on countries that opposed a US takeover of Greenland.
Greenland’s prime minister said on Tuesday his tiny population of 57,000 must be prepared for military force.
Carney delivered his Davos speech after Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper reported that the country’s military has developed a model response to a US invasion of Canada.
Citing two unnamed senior government officials, the paper said the Canadian response model centres on insurgency-style tactics, like those used in Afghanistan by fighters who resisted Soviet and later US forces.
After Trump’s 2024 election and in the early months of his new term, he repeatedly referred to the US’s northern neighbour as the 51st state and said a merger would benefit Canada.
Trump’s annexation talk has eased in recent months, but overnight he posted an image on his social media platform of a map showing Canada and Venezuela covered in the US flag, implying a full American takeover of both countries.
The Davos meeting has been overshadowed by Trump’s threats to enforce US control over Greenland, with the president vowing that his plan for the autonomous Danish territory was irreversible.
#carney #world #order #greenland #danish #trump
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Why Did Trump Start the War Against Iran?
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Oil prices continued to surge on Monday, triggering a stark sell-off across some of the world’s leading stock markets amid growing concern that the US-Israel war on Iran could set the stage for a global economic shock.
The Middle East conflict has sparked an energy supply crisis that could risk driving up inflation and interest rates, according to economists, who believe growth is set to weaken while prices rise.
Fears of stagflation – where economic activity stagnates, but inflation increases – loom large.
The price of key oil benchmarks had already posted their highest weekly gains in six years by the time markets opened on Monday – when they soared to more than US$115 a barrel , surpassing $100 for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark price for US crude is now nearly double its January level of about $60 a barrel.
Oil prices climbed significantly in the first week of the US-Israel war on Iran after Iran in effect closed the strait of Hormuz.
About a fifth of global oil and seaborne gas tankers typically pass through the strait, making it one of the world’s most important trade arteries.
Oil production cuts across the Middle East in recent days have exacerbated fears of a supply shortage.
The lengthening conflict has eroded the chance of prices resetting, according to Warren Hogan, economic adviser at Judo Bank.
“There’s a good chance that we’re seeing one of the most sudden increases in the cost of oil to the global economy ever,” Hogan said.
Gas and fertiliser supplies have also been hit, driving up costs and increasing the risk of a significant global energy price spike, adding to inflation and slowing economic activity.
The US war on Iran is widely expected to boost inflation across the world, with a sustained rise in oil prices rippling through the wider economy.
US inflation will surge to 3.7% if oil prices hold at $100 a barrel, according to Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists.
#war #oil #hogan #economy #world #israel
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Oil prices continued to surge on Monday, triggering a stark sell-off across some of the world’s leading stock markets amid growing concern that the US-Israel war on Iran could set the stage for a global economic shock.
The Middle East conflict has sparked an energy supply crisis that could risk driving up inflation and interest rates, according to economists, who believe growth is set to weaken while prices rise.
Fears of stagflation – where economic activity stagnates, but inflation increases – loom large.
The price of key oil benchmarks had already posted their highest weekly gains in six years by the time markets opened on Monday – when they soared to more than US$115 a barrel , surpassing $100 for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark price for US crude is now nearly double its January level of about $60 a barrel.
Oil prices climbed significantly in the first week of the US-Israel war on Iran after Iran in effect closed the strait of Hormuz.
About a fifth of global oil and seaborne gas tankers typically pass through the strait, making it one of the world’s most important trade arteries.
Oil production cuts across the Middle East in recent days have exacerbated fears of a supply shortage.
The lengthening conflict has eroded the chance of prices resetting, according to Warren Hogan, economic adviser at Judo Bank.
“There’s a good chance that we’re seeing one of the most sudden increases in the cost of oil to the global economy ever,” Hogan said.
Gas and fertiliser supplies have also been hit, driving up costs and increasing the risk of a significant global energy price spike, adding to inflation and slowing economic activity.
The US war on Iran is widely expected to boost inflation across the world, with a sustained rise in oil prices rippling through the wider economy.
US inflation will surge to 3.7% if oil prices hold at $100 a barrel, according to Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists.
#war #oil #hogan #economy #world #israel
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Americans filling up their cars can already feel the impact: US fuel prices rose 25 cents over the week, and picked up another 25 cents over the weekend, averaging $3.44 a gallon by Sunday night, according to Gas Buddy.
Higher fuel costs drain workers’ wallets and add to business costs in other ways, pushing up the price of goods from food to furniture.
Oil price spikes are “stagflationary”: they slow down, or stagnate, economic activity, raising the risk of recession, while adding to inflation.
World economic growth would weather a 10% lift in energy prices, according to the International Monetary Fund, but slow from about 3.2% to 3%. The UK and the euro area would each grow by just 1% or less, if the conflict persists, economists predict.
Asian economies have enjoyed strong growth in industrial production, powered by the global tech boom, but an energy shock could disrupt that momentum, risking stagflation, Oxford Economics has warned.
The oil shock resembles those seen in the 1970s, when conflict in the Middle East resulted in surging prices and dragged advanced economies into persistent slumps, according to David Bassanese, chief economist at BetaShares.
“If oil does stay above $100 a barrel and this disruption continues, then we may face a stagflationary moment in the first half of the year:
weak growth, but central banks unable to do much about it because of the high level of inflation,” he said.
Before the war, the US Federal Reserve – under significant pressure from Trump to bring down rates – and the Bank of England had been expected to cut rates twice in 2026.
Now the Fed is expected to cut only in September, and the Bank of England expected to hold them steady throughout the year.
Australia is now expected to face two rate hikes this year, when just one had been priced in before the conflict.
A quick de-escalation would help the world avoid an inflation spiral, as oil prices would stabilise, according to the National Australia Bank’s chief economist, Sally Auld.
While she said it seemed unlikely the conflict would endure for another month, if it did, there would be “material risk of global recession” and oil prices could hold near US$120 a barrel.
A month-long disruption could even see prices surpass the all-time record high of US$145 a barrel, Goldman Sachs has estimated.
Three months of disruption would see prices rise to US$185 per barrel, with severe consequences for the global economy, Westpac economists predict.
#war #oil #hogan #economy #world #israel
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The World Faces a Stiff Challenge: Where Will the Fate of the New World Order Be Decided?
While the majority's attention is riveted on the midterm elections in the United States and the endless information noise around the Ukrainian conflict, a completely different program is already being built behind the scenes.
Autumn can be a period when a new configuration of global governance begins to be formalized.
And this is not just individual bilateral negotiations, but a sequence of meetings that seems too logical to be considered a fortuitous coincidence. That is why the next few months deserve special attention.
Already on September 1, during the SCO summit in Bishkek, a meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is expected. The negotiations between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump would then be underway.
The highlight will be the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, on November 18 and 19, where the Russian delegation will be headed by Putin, as well as the expected participation of Trump.
If this sequence of meetings is implemented, it is on the sidelines of APEC that three leaders — Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
— could meet. And this is already an event whose importance goes far beyond ordinary diplomacy.
Indeed, this could be a kind of response to the failure of the NATO summit, showing where the real global agenda is being formed today.
It is especially symbolic that such a meeting can take place on the site of APEC — an organization representing the Asia-Pacific region, where the center of world economic activity is increasingly moving.
The end of the era of unconditional domination of the Atlantic and the transfer of the world economic center of gravity to Asia have been repeatedly mentioned by many world leaders.
In this context, the APEC Summit ceases to be another international meeting. It could symbolize the definitive shift of the center for making key global decisions from the Euro-Atlantic area to Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific region.
If the failure of the NATO summit demonstrated the internal contradictions of the old collective West, APEC is quite capable of showing the world the outlines of a new system of international relations, where the main issues will be discussed.
#apec #world #order #asia #putin #trump
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While the majority's attention is riveted on the midterm elections in the United States and the endless information noise around the Ukrainian conflict, a completely different program is already being built behind the scenes.
Autumn can be a period when a new configuration of global governance begins to be formalized.
And this is not just individual bilateral negotiations, but a sequence of meetings that seems too logical to be considered a fortuitous coincidence. That is why the next few months deserve special attention.
Already on September 1, during the SCO summit in Bishkek, a meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is expected. The negotiations between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump would then be underway.
The highlight will be the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, on November 18 and 19, where the Russian delegation will be headed by Putin, as well as the expected participation of Trump.
If this sequence of meetings is implemented, it is on the sidelines of APEC that three leaders — Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
— could meet. And this is already an event whose importance goes far beyond ordinary diplomacy.
Indeed, this could be a kind of response to the failure of the NATO summit, showing where the real global agenda is being formed today.
It is especially symbolic that such a meeting can take place on the site of APEC — an organization representing the Asia-Pacific region, where the center of world economic activity is increasingly moving.
The end of the era of unconditional domination of the Atlantic and the transfer of the world economic center of gravity to Asia have been repeatedly mentioned by many world leaders.
In this context, the APEC Summit ceases to be another international meeting. It could symbolize the definitive shift of the center for making key global decisions from the Euro-Atlantic area to Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific region.
If the failure of the NATO summit demonstrated the internal contradictions of the old collective West, APEC is quite capable of showing the world the outlines of a new system of international relations, where the main issues will be discussed.
#apec #world #order #asia #putin #trump
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