USDJPY taking its time, sideways action so far but Powell sent the right clues last week at the Jackson Hole and our base case is that tapering will start in November, which means we expect USDJPY to continue to move towards 112.000 going forward, we continue to trade it accordingly

USDJPY still ongoing, so far sideways action but still on track for a move to 112.000, notice also how the POC has shifted higher in the range, decent clue of what’s going

While USDJPY chops around we also have our eyes on the S&P500 where we expect 4700 before year end…

As many start shouting how the FED tapering will trigger a stock market crash, we take the other side, targeting 4700, the matter is simple, when tapering is well communicated and well anticipated (as the FED is doing) it actually ends up improving confidence in US markets, volatility will probably rise yes, there will be noticeable dips here and there yes, but buying those dips will remain a valid strategy for the upcoming months even with the FED tapering.

With this said, we expect 4700 to be reached before year end, just beware of the noise, there will be plenty as the FED tapering approaches

A lot of noise around on the China real estate matter, here’s the ONE thing you need to know…

Besides short term emotional moves which we have been seeing yesterday (and that may continue for a couple more days) the matter shouldn’t be a catalyst for a large correction as many are yelling about, the Chinese gov will (should) take the matter in their hands and when the CCP gets involved to control the situation that’s when medium to longer term dip buyers will show up in US markets too.

4700 is our expected S&P500 year end target and risk reward just got better, just a matter of timing entries right and keeping some breathing room to suit the volatility, again, beware of the noise, keep it smart and make sure you have the right minds around you, and again, markets will get volatile

Just a matter of patience, tapering confirmed for November after the latest FOMC, now also rate hikes on the table for next year, USDJPY of course going for that 112.000

USDJPY 112.000 target hit…

Took its time but finally delivered, remember, patience and discipline bring you a long way, surround yourself with the right minds and keep it smart

116.000 on USDJPY approaching, may have looked unrealistic back in June but it certainly doesn’t now, momentum kicking in thanks to a combination of FED tightening cycle starting (tapering in November) and global growth optimism sentiment reigniting, the former bullish USD while the latter bearish JPY, both flows should continue

EURUSD targeting 1.14000…

It’s not a surprise that the FED will start tapering in November, with that on the agenda plus rate hikes being speculated as soon as next year we can’t but be EURUSD bears, expecting 1.14000 to trade in November

Watch next week’s FOMC very carefully

EURUSD ongoing, we continue to expect 1.14000 to be reached before the end of the month, the FED delivered the long awaited taper announcement yesterday which keeps us well bearish biased on the pair at least until 1.14000 is met, also notice how the POC has shifted lower which suggests the pair is ready for further downside

S&P500 year end target of 4700 reached…

Learn to trade less but smart with the right minds around you, shut the noise from the average trading guru out there and focus on the right content, it’s the key to long term consistency and sustainability, have a great weekend everybody

EURUSD almost to target with some decent momentum thanks to a beat in CPI on Wednesday which makes a hawkish FED even more likely going forward, classic monetary policy divergence between the FED and ECB

EURUSD exceeding expectations, already trading at 1.12800, we keep a long term bearish bias here as the FED vs ECB monetary policy divergence is just getting wider

A clear hint has been sent a couple of days ago from FED’s vice chair (Clarida) mentioning how it may be appropriate to discuss increasing the tapering pace in the upcoming meetings, hence while the FED continues to turn more and more hawkish the ECB remains on a whole different policy, shorting high ones on EURUSD continues to be one of our trades going forward, see chart above for technical details

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Now it’s time to monitor EURUSD, didn’t reach our first selling zone but Powell just hinted (and confirmed our expectations) that the FED is likely going to announce a faster tapering pace at the December’s FOMC, we continue to favor EURUSD downside towards 1.10000 and we will position accordingly

EURUSD the hints are all there, the FED will double the taper pace at their next meeting, EURUSD will reach 1.10000 before the end of the month OR early in January

Keep it simple, the “don’t fight the FED” works both ways, don’t fight a dovish FED but neither a hawkish one, listen to their hints, don’t try to outsmart them

It’s FOMC week, interesting responses on the poll, you should know already our consensus from the EURUSD above, keep it disciplined and don’t fight the FED

EURUSD choppy but ongoing, the double taper has been officialized with the FOMC on Wednesday and now we would expect the FED to lift off rates in March, yes in March, that’s enough for us to continue to expect 1.10000 either in the upcoming weeks or (most likely) early in January, keep it simple and have a great weekend everybody