Thank you all for the interest in the Private Network as always, we have already booked and filled all the extra seats that we intended to open for next month so the next spots will be at the end of May, you may want to book a seat a couple of weeks in advance @JayRally

If you are wondering what are the benefits of being a Private Network member I leave you to our Trustpilot reviews

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/besomebodyfx.com

USDJPY targeting 111.000 this month…

We should see a continuation of strong US growth with the data coming in this month and we are seeing some Real Money buying into US yields, all of which should translate to a strong month for USDJPY again after a correction in April, expecting 111.000 to be reached before the end of the month

USDJPY choppy but on track, target needs to be reached this month, with the beginning of June the bias will not be valid anymore as next month’s FOMC should ignore the recent inflation spike and reiterate the very accommodative stance

USDJPY structure still looks good but it’s lacking the right fundamental catalyst for the push higher, it may take longer than expected for the target to be met and a sustained break below the POC zone will make us close our positions and wait for another entry later on

Thank you once again for all the interest in the Private Network, all the extra seats we intended to open for the month of June have already been booked ahead of time, which means the next ones will be available at the end of June @JayRally

If you are wondering about the benefits I will leave you to our Trustpilot reviews, have a great weekend and don’t expect USDJPY to break 110.000 too easily

https://www.trustpilot.com/review/besomebodyfx.com

Don’t expect USDJPY to move to target in a straight line, we took profit around the highs last week and we will be looking to rebuy low again around the POC, it’s a “when FED hints at tapering” matter, and US data this week will give further guidance on that

Watching carefully the FOMC this week for further guidance on the tapering subject hence the USDJPY trade.

No mention of the word “tapering” and USDJPY takes a trip back below 109.000, any mention of the tapering subject, with hints that it’s a matter that will be discussed actively going forward and USDJPY continues towards the 111.000 target

Also beware of the “experts” out there, regardless of this week’s FOMC result, the tapering subject will gain attention in the coming months, remember to shut noise from the average trading “guru”, trade facts

The recent FOMC sends a clear confirmation that tapering is coming later in the year, also rate hikes expectations have been brought forward, it’s the early signs of a powerful hawkish shift from the FED.

USDJPY slowly running to the 111.000 target, but I would say, expect this to run much higher over the course of the year towards 116.000, we will be trading it accordingly

S&P500 target 4300…

Not the boldest of trades but we expect the S&P500 to reach 4300 before the end of August, plenty of FED hawkishness has been already priced in for the time being, so until the next catalyst some rebalancing will push the S&P500 to new ATH, beware tho there could be some volatility and a bit of more downside before the dip gets bought for good

USDJPY 111.000 target reached…

Took longer than expected but here it is, as mentioned last week, because of the upcoming macro environment (FED tightening) we expect USDJPY to extend towards 116.000 before year end, we will trade it accordingly

S&P500 4300 target reached…

Don’t fight the macro environment and remember to not get stuck in front of the charts too much, if trading is exhausting you, you’re doing something wrong.

Trade less, trade smart

EURUSD squeeze targeting 1.19400…

Last week’s flows after US data mark a turn in sentiment that suggests a short term squeeze higher on EURUSD, expecting 1.19400 to trade in about a week or so

Quickly proven wrong on EURUSD on the break of 1.18000, a friendly reminder from the market that not all trades can be winners

Plenty of questions recently asking our thoughts on inflation going forward, and the answer is quite straightforward, there are two players that say “inflation is transitory” which are smarter than all your favorite trading gurus combined, one is the FED and the other the bond market, never a good idea to fight them.

We are likely near peak inflation for the year, and if you are wondering what it means for the market, well, think of last year’s macro trends in FX (reflation driven) and reverse them.

EURGBP targeting 0.87500…

Expecting bouts of risk off and volatility spikes in global markets over the next couple of weeks as inflation expectations move lower (see post above) and global growth peaks, EUR (low beta) tends to outperform GBP (high beta) in this type of environment, hence targeting a move higher towards 0.87500, remember to buy low and not high

EURGBP is valid as long as we don’t get a clean break below 0.85000, we are seeing early signs of risk off building up in Asian markets but none in global markets yet

EURGBP still ongoing, expecting the BoE meeting this week to cool down hawkish expectations and strike a cautious tone, also notice the “risk off” brewing and spreading across assets, we expect more of it in the upcoming weeks, with stronger momentum, anyway, EURGBP is valid as long as we don’t get a sustained break below 0.85000

EURGBP temporarily invalidated with the break of 0.85000, we still expect a move higher but the timing is clearly off, removing the ego on these occasions is essential, don’t let yourself be frustrated by the market.

Side note, the NFP just confirmed the FED tapering timeline, Powell will make his hawkish shift at the Jackson Hole this month to hint at the start of the tapering operations, know this and you know how to be positioned for the whole month

To follow up on the tapering subject, we expect USDJPY to get comfortably above 112.000…

Base case is that the Jackson Hole will signal a shift in FED’s rhetoric, or better, Powell’s rhetoric, enough for us to expect USDJPY at 112.000, tho don’t expect the market to move in a straight line

USDJPY ongoing, It’s Jackson Hole week, pay careful attention to Powell’s words, it’s all a matter of him giving further guidance on the tapering timeline and we (and the market) will be carefully listening for subtle hints on when tapering will start, a slight nod at tapering before year end from Powell and USDJPY goes to 112.000