EURUSD remains driven by geopolitical headlines, chop between “deal” and “no deal” with threats along the way from leaders is a regular activity at every negotiation table, beware of the chop

The 1.12700 level remains our target IF (pay attention to the IF) a truce gets agreed, there’s some ground for optimism but more progress is needed, have a great weekend everybody

A few short term technicals we are watching on the Dollar, scenario NOT active yet but we would be interested in shorts purely from a seasonal point of view as Dollar weakness in mid April is a consistent seasonal theme, see chart for technical details

AND remember it’s just a short term theme for the next couple of weeks, in May we will have one of the most hawkish FOMC in a while with a 50bps hike and QT announcement and we certainly don’t want to be short USDs into that

Remember to read the Crypto Global Macro note for the Quarter, it’s a 5 minute read and if you own any crypto you will be grateful you took a look, whether you agree with it or not just be wary of what the macro context is telling, don’t be the lazy one that then gets caught off guard

Meanwhile, the USD setup above never managed to reclaim March highs, hence no trigger, have a great weekend everybody

Targeting 1.27800 on USDCAD…

It’s gradually approaching the time to start buying USDs into the May 4 FOMC, USDCAD longs in one of our candidates, see chart above for technical details

Quick stop on USDCAD as it stretched through our buying zone, looks like a temporary technical squeeze and we are still looking for USD longs into the May 4 FOMC, so we will be keeping an eye on higher timeframe price action to give us the green light to enter long again

A few updated notes on USDCAD…

We continue to expect USD strength heading into the May 4 FOMC with a 50bps hike and QT announcement, from a technical point of view also is worth noticing the POC shifting to higher levels, USDCAD expected “fair value” still around 1.27800

No sign of bulls on USDCAD, we need a strong and meaningful (higher timeframe) bullish price action here at support to engage with the second round of longs, and so far nothing, keep an eye on Powell’s speech today for some volatility, his only speech until the May 4 FOMC

The FED will announce the start of QT (Quantitative Tightening) on May 4, that’s the core reason for the recent bouts of USD strength and that’s why we expect more USD strength going forward, basic monetary policy, the link above explains the QT concept and what it means in practical terms, it’s a 5 minute read and it will give you the right knowledge for the upcoming tighter monetary policy regime, have a great weekend everybody

Read this, again, don’t get caught off guard

EURGBP target 0.86000…

A monetary policy “catch up” trade, the ECB will start raising rates in a couple of months, while the BoE may slow down their tightening plan going forward

The yield differential already shows bond yields pricing such policy move, with European rates outperforming UK ones (orange line on the chart)

We are bullish EURGBP and we expect 0.86000 to be tapped “fairly soon” although the geopolitical risks in Europe definitely add some uncertainty to the trade, keep it smart

Again, read the link above if you haven't already, don’t be the one that gets caught off side, be the smart one, listen to the FED, understand the macro environment, and make sure you have the right minds around, yesterday’s FOMC confirmed more 50bps hikes are coming and QT is starting

EURGBP ongoing and approaching full target zone, beware of pullbacks around the weekly close later, but overall this should break above and beyond target “fairly soon” since the ECB continues to send hints about an approaching rate hike while the BoE hinted at pausing their tightening cycle, classy monetary policy divergence, have a great weekend everybody

If you are remotely thinking about buying the dip in crypto, the link attached above will remind you why you shouldn’t (yet)

Again, listen to the FED, not to the average “up only” crypto guru out there, stay objective, understand the macro environment, follow the right minds, and don’t FOMO, the FED is far from pivoting away from the aggressive tightening monetary policy, don’t fight them

EURGBP 0.86000 target achieved…

Classy monetary policy divergence trade, we expect this to continue higher towards 0.87000 but it may need a deeper pullback and the right catalyst (possibly the next ECB meeting) to ignite the next bullish leg, don’t FOMO at the highs, for the time being, 0.86000 target achieved

NZDCAD target 0.80200…

Expecting the technical lows at 0.80200 on NZDCAD to be taken out sooner than later, keep it smart

Quick stop loss for us on NZDCAD as it breaks the previous structure highs, still thinking the technical lows at 0.80200 get tapped sooner than later, but for the time being we take the stop loss, stay disciplined

Remember, while QT has been officially formalized back in early May, it hasn’t even started yet, keep that in mind when you hear the average crypto guru telling you to buy the dip, don’t FOMO at every minor push (pullback) higher, the FED is far from pivoting, have a great weekend everybody

Expecting EURGBP upside towards 0.87000…

Two things to watch for this trade, the ECB about to hike rates and also purposefully encourage a stronger EUR to tamp down inflation, while the BoE about to pause rate hikes as the UK likely heads into recession, classic monetary policy divergence in the making between the two, don’t overthink it

The first EURGBP longs on this theme hit target (0.86000) a couple of weeks ago, now after an expected pullback it’s getting ready for the next leg higher, we are bullish EURGBP on pullbacks with target 0.87000, keep it smart