June 9 (ECB rate decision) and June 16 (BoE rate decision) will be the two catalysts for EURGBP to gain some momentum to the upside, remember the market needs the right catalyst for the right moves to unfold, in the meantime... patience is a virtue

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Now eyes on EURGBP which is gaining some momentum to the upside, the ECB next week is the right catalyst for a good bout of volatility, have a great weekend everybody

RBA rate decision coming up, which creates a short term opportunity for AUDNZD longs…

Markets’ consensus is for a 25bps hike, BUT we see an opportunity leaning in favor of a larger 40bps rate hike given the recent acceleration in Aussie's inflation readings

Long story short, if the RBA as we expect delivers a 40bps rate hike, then expect AUDNZD to jump noticeably, hence we see it worth some AUDNZD long exposure into the event and we are positioning accordingly

And a 50bps hike from the RBA it is, surprising even our above consensus expectations…

The AUDNZD move was a little smaller than what we anticipated but we expect AUDNZD to gain momentum and hit the “50bps hike” target over the upcoming days

EURGBP lacking momentum but the reasons for upside are still there in place, yesterday’s ECB subtly kept the door open for a potential 50bps hike in September, now it’s the BoE's turn to tell its story on June 16, have a great weekend everybody

EURGBP target zone reached…

Another classy monetary policy divergence trade with the ECB getting ready for rate hikes while the BoE on the other side begins to slow down their tightening path, thus creating a tradable divergence between the two where the EUR outperforms the GBP, basic monetary policy, the rest is just patience and discipline to stick with the plan

Trade less, trade smart

EURUSD longs potential target 1.07000…

Well against the macro trend, but we see a scenario where the Dollar pulls back over the next week or so with a potential upside target on EURUSD at 1.07000

There’s little to no catalyst for Dollar bulls to get excited in the short term and there's plenty of FED tightening priced in already, so it would make sense to see some short term rebalancing with a modest pullback in the USD macro trend, just a pullback tho, the FED is still going to deliver another 75bps hike at their next FOMC

Flat on EURUSD, dipped into the buying zone, had a nice run up to 1.06000 but failed right there, not the kind of price action we want to see, European PMIs also took a dump earlier so there are little reasons to stay long EURUSD at the moment, the trade overall could still work but lower conviction

The next detailed update on crypto will be up on Friday for the new quarter, and no, it’s still NOT bullish yet

The objective, rational, and logical macro picture for the crypto market for the new quarter

Don’t listen to the “up only” crypto guru, listen to the macro environment, have a great weekend everybody

Short USDJPY to 130.000…

From reflation to deflation, the markets are quickly moving from the former to the latter, look across the board, notice OIL, US yields, and commodities, all down substantially from their highs, those are deflation and recession concerns creeping in as growth is slowing down remarkably across the world, we expect those flows to spill over to FX going forward with decent JPY strength over a medium term time horizon

We are looking for JPY longs across the board, with particular attention to USDJPY shorts, we target 130.000 over the medium term with short term adjustments along the way

With Friday’s strong NFP yields bounced and USDJPY went for the upside break of the technical structure, so we took a tiny loss on Friday and now waiting for higher timeframe price action before engaging with shorts again

Keep it tight, picking tops is obviously never too straightforward but the risk reward is always attractive, monitoring Wednesday’s CPI as the next potential trigger

Deflation? clearly not yet, the most recent CPI is yet another surprise higher, 100bps hike on the table at the next FOMC, with these developments we are NOT looking for USDJPY shorts any longer, keep it flexible and don’t fight the FED, they are going to get even more aggressive

With Friday’s strong NFP, yesterday’s high CPI, and now the hints at an upcoming 100bps rate hike from the FED, the latest crypto update just got even more important, don’t get caught off guard, and don’t fight the FED

Long USDCNH up to 7.10000 zone…

Not a popular FX pair, but it’s providing a clear opportunity for the upcoming months

As the world grinds into a global recession, the Dollar should remain favorite against more vulnerable emerging markets currencies such as the Chinese Yuan

It’s a medium to long term trade backed by a macro fundamental outlook and a clean technical setup which gives us a good risk reward, we are long already with the Private Network and looking to add on dips, stay smart

Large PMI misses across Europe this morning and now also US PMIs printing well below consensus, we are talking about leading indicators showing clear footprints of a global recession, not to be overlooked

Volatility will continue to increase, make sure you have the right minds around you because there will be plenty of noise out there

While most of our focus is on USDCNH longs in terms of Dollar long exposure we also see some potential building in EURUSD shorts…

The gas supply situation remains under threat in Europe while the ECB promises to deliver substantial rate hikes right as Europe grinds into a meaningful slowdown

Recession and large rate hikes won’t match well for a vulnerable EUR, and thus we like to be EUR bears in this context, we expect EURUSD to potentially get around 0.99000 over the coming weeks

Again, USDCNH long is our favorite Dollar long exposure at the moment, but short EUR is nonetheless an attractive shorter term alternative for the week

Keep in mind, we got a first decent bearish reaction from our “ideal shorting zone” on EURUSD, now purely from a technical point of view we don’t want to see price hanging around the zone for too long, as long as price stays below yesterday’s highs we can stay bearish but if it starts to grind higher deep into the shorting zone we may have to readjust

Eyes on USDCNH… Nancy Pelosi’s bravery, Taiwan strait tensions, China firmly against Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, weak Chinese PMIs, all reasons for some good old short term volatility for the Chinese Yuan