⚠️🇺🇸 #macro #FOMC Fed rate: 4.5% (expect: 4.5% / prior: 4.5%)

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC The Fed's accompanying letter:
- Fed forecasts 0.5% rate cut in 2025 (2 rate cuts);
- Inflation remains elevated;
- Note no upside risks to unemployment and inflation;
- Economic activity is growing at a solid pace;
- Labor market is stable.

⚠️🇺🇸 #macro #FOMC Fed rate: 4.5% (expect: 4.5% / prior: 4.5%)

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC The Fed's accompanying letter:
- Removed language that uncertainty has diminished;
- Economic growth has slowed;
- Uncertainty about the economic Outlook remains high;
- Inflation remains slightly above target.

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Meeting Minutes:
- Most Fed officials felt it was appropriate to keep the interest rate unchanged (except Bowman and Waller) and expect inflation to rise in the short term;
- Vulnerabilities in the hedge fund, stablecoin and non-bank lender sectors require monitoring.

🗽🤔 #FOMC Ecoinometrics: The Federal Reserve is still hawkish

The July FOMC minutes show no change in tone, the last five meetings have all scored as hawkish in our Fed Communications Index.

That’s not what you’d expect if the Fed were preparing to accelerate rate cuts. #macro

⚠️🇺🇸 #macro #FOMC Fed rate: 4.25% (expect: 4.25% / prior: 4.5%)

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC The Fed's accompanying letter:
- Fed forecasts another 50bp rate cut this year;
- forecast labor market weakening;
- economic activity is slowing;
- inflation remains stubbornly above target.

⚠️🇺🇸 #macro #FOMC FED rate: 4% (exp: 4% / pre: 4.25%)

🗽👀 #macro #FOMC Fed Chair Powell presser about to start.

If Powell sounds supportive → risk assets may strengthen.
If he is cautious → expect volatility and possible downside tests.

🇺🇸👀 #FOMC Powell continues:
- Fed rate now sits within many estimates of the neutral range.
- Some FOMC members believe it’s time to step back and wait one cycle before further moves.
- Powell signaled a more cautious approach amid rising uncertainty.
- Government shutdown could affect the December meeting.
- #AI-related layoffs are emerging, potentially weighing on future job creation.
- AI and data center investments remain strong and less sensitive to interest rates.
- Tariffs expected to rise further, potentially adding 0.2–0.4pp to inflation short term.

📊 #BTC #FOMC Ecoinometrics: Our Fed Communication Index, which tracks the tone of each FOMC press conference, shows a steady move toward neutrality.

The Fed’s language has softened enough to signal easier monetary conditions ahead, a setup that’s typically supportive for Bitcoin.

That doesn’t look like the start of a bear market.

⚠️🇺🇸 #macro #FOMC Fed rate: 3.75% (expect: 3.75% / pre: 4%)

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC The Fed's accompanying letter:
- Fed to launch QE on Dec. 12;
- Remain likely to cut rates by 25 bps in 2026;
- Expect unemployment rate to be 4.4% in 2026, PCE inflation to fall to 2.4%, and GDP growth to increase to 2.3%.

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Powell:
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
- Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
- Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes:

- The labor market showed signs of stabilization after a period of gradual slowdown.
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
- The unemployment rate is expected to gradually decrease.
- Further reduction in the target range for the interest rate is likely appropriate if inflation falls as expected.
- Risks of employment decline in recent months have diminished, while the risk of more persistent inflation remains.

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC
Fed Rate: 3.75%
(exp: 3.75% / prev: 3.75%)

🇺🇸🗣 #macro #FOMC
Fed's statement:
- The economy continues to grow at a steady pace, but uncertainty about economic prospects remains due to events in the Middle East.
- The Fed is ready to adjust the monetary policy stance in case risks arise that could hinder the achievement of goals.
- Inflation remains elevated.

🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes:

- Economic activity is growing at a steady pace.
- Job growth remains low on average, and the unemployment rate has remained virtually unchanged in recent months.
- Inflation is high.
- They believe that it will take longer than previously expected for inflation to return to the target of 2%.
- The majority of Federal Reserve representatives are considering a rate cut later this year if inflation continues to slow and the labor market weakens.

🇺🇸📝 #macro #FOMC Federal Reserve Rate: 3.75% (exp: 3.75% / prev: 3.75%)