📝 🇮🇷 🇸🇦 Iran’s missiles and drones have hit Gulf infrastructure sites at least 135 times, causing cascading failures that governments have often concealed.

Iran has targeted infrastructure across the Gulf Arab countries – in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. In all, the Islamic Republic has launched at least 135 drone and missile attacks on at least 84 infrastructure sites in the Gulf since the US and Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran on February 28, Reuters found.

The attacks have spread fear across the Gulf, sent oil prices soaring and helped Iran blunt months of American military pressure. Coupled with the Islamic Republic’s blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the ability to launch precision attacks creates an enduring threat to its Gulf Arab neighbors and gives Iran huge sway over the global economy and leverage in its peace negotiations with the US.

Ryan Stevens, a former US Marine Corps special operations airstrike coordinator who reviewed Reuters’ findings, said Iran’s strikes showed “precision, targeting expertise, and patience.”

Some places suffered periods of near-daily bombardment and face billions of dollars in repairs and lost revenue. Others, like one of the world’s largest aluminum smelters in Abu Dhabi, were devastated in a single day. Some of the attacks were carried out by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and the Iraqi Shiite militias controlled from Tehran.

Among those hit the most was the Fujairah port, whose location just south of Hormuz allowed the UAE to bypass Iran’s blockade. The port served as a life raft for global trade by easing the most severe disruption to oil supplies in decades.

In all, Reuters found that Iranian drones and missiles have struck Fujairah at least 19 times since the war began on February 28, crippling critical pieces of its operations.

“They are targeting our infrastructure,” said Al Jaber, who is also the UAE minister of industry and advanced technology. “But what they're really targeting is our way of life.”

That same year, a secret US Central Intelligence Agency assessment found Iran was likely to respond to perceived threats with attacks on energy infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. That assessment, released in 2019, found that “even a few attacks against well-chosen targets could do considerable damage to Gulf oil facilities.”

US officials believe Iran may have received intelligence from Russia and China. In addition, Iran relies upon networks of informants with access to sensitive sites to pass along photos and location information, according to three officials familiar with the issue – one from Iran and two in the Gulf.

Oil and gas exports function as a system – from wells that extract, to pipelines that transport across hundreds of kilometers, to refineries that process, to ports where ships can load cargo bound for global markets.

In Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s largest petrostate, this web offers an almost inexhaustible number of targets – a weakness that has been flagged repeatedly over decades, including in the 1983 CIA report. The kingdom produces around 10% of the world’s crude as well as natural gas and petrochemicals.

Nearly all of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports flow through two main ports. The largest share typically flows through its Ras Tanura port on the Gulf. But the kingdom can also export oil from the large King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, the largest on the Red Sea coast.

When the war started, Yanbu and the East-West Pipeline leading to it became a critical outlet for Saudi oil to avoid Hormuz. Most ships that sail from the Red Sea port must instead pass Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen and the narrow Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

In March and April, more than 1,000 kilometers from the Iranian border, drones hit Yanbu at least twice, according to two industry sources familiar with the operations.

The Iranians hit Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Limited's Yanbu Refinery with a drone on March 19, limiting production to about 70% of capacity until April 9, said Hillary Stevenson, vice president of energy intelligence at IIR Energy. Scorch marks appeared in a satellite image of Yanbu from around that date, but Reuters could not determine what precisely was hit at the refinery.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/iran-crisis-infrastructure-attacks/

🇨🇴 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Colombia announces its withdrawal from the Hague Group, the bloc of countries formed to hold Israel accountable over Gaza, stepping down as both a member and co-chair.

Foreign Minister Omar Bula said Colombia rejects the group's approach, calling it "a group created to isolate and attack Israel."

Colombia was one of the bloc's founding members in January 2025, and Bolivia and Honduras have also left.

📎 Clash Report

Some of the Russian Geran-5 jet-drones used to target western Ukraine today were recorded flying at speeds of 700-800 km/h, indicating Russia may have upgraded them or is using a new type of drone-missile.

The Geran-5 previously had a max speed of 600 km/h. An increase to 800 km/h would effectively put it on par with some of Russia's air-launched cruise missiles.

🇪🇹🇪🇷 - The situation in Zalambessa, Adigrat direction, along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, has become incredibly tense over the past few hours.

Eritrea's military, EDF, is positioned in the northern outskirts of the town, as well as areas north of the town.

Ethiopian forces, ENDF, have set up checkpoints south of the town preventing anyone from evacuating towards Fadi or Adigrat.

The town itself is uncontrolled by either side. Locals report looting, closure of most shops, and most essential food has run out.

Map key:
Red: Ethiopian National Defense Forces,
Green: Tigray Defense Forces,
Purple: Eritrean Defense Forces on Ethiopian territory.

Rerum Novarum’s proprietary maps are now available at MINIMAP.TECHNOLOGY

🚢 Wars in the Persian Gulf, Black and Arabian Seas are tying up way too many ships causing fuel shortages across the globe.

Global fuel oil supply is shrinking while demand for the fuel from the shipping industry remains robust, suggesting further supply pain down the road.

Exports of high-sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East are running at a rate that is at least 800,000 tons a month lower than it was before the war, the head of Asian operations at Vitol said at an industry event.

“Producers are paying higher freight rates and more risk premiums to shuttle cargoes out of Hormuz, recognising the importance of oil revenues to their national budgets,” Kieran Gallagher said, as quoted by Reuters. The risk premium for those exports remains considerable, fueling uncertainty about future supply from the region.

Fuel oil is standard for the shipping industry, but recently, some refiners in Asia have started switching from crude oil to high-sulfur fuel oil as feedstock, Gallagher said, amid the disruption of Saudi exports from the Red Sea. These refiners have snapped cargoes totalling some 1 million tons for November delivery, the executive said.

Further complicating the fuel oil situation, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have further crimped supply. Vitol’s Gallagher estimated that loss at some 1 million tons per month.

“The key lies in replacing fuel oil with crude as a refinery feedstock,” he said. However, this remains a challenge due to the above-mentioned shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the premium for the fuel oil used in commercial shipping on the spot market has reached almost $50 per ton, up from $5.10 per ton in late February, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data.

Over the past couple of days, a fuel shortage developed in the resort city of Bali, Indonesia, due to an oil tanker arriving late in port.

Authorities in Switzerland are releasing jet fuel from their emergency stocks to prevent a fuel shortage caused by drought in the Rhine river valley and train delays in Germany.

The fuel shortage is much worse felt across Subsaharan Africa. In Malawi, the government is short on foreign currency and the rise in oil prices make it difficult to find a cheap and consistent supply of fuel.

South Africa who is undergoing a process of deindustrialization became this year particularly exposed to energy shocks like the one caused by the wars in the Middle East. The country became a net importer of fuel when just as late as 7 years ago it was not. South Africa currently produces about 39% of its fuel demand domestically, including Sasol, which is a significant decrease from 78% in 2019. The country imports approximately 61% of its refined fuel products. South Africa has just 6.9 million barrels left of oil in its petroleum reserve meaning that if oil tankers stop coming, the country will be out of fuel.

In Mozambique, the fuel crisis is preventing many fishermen from going out to sea due to a lack of fuel.

In Kenya, rising fuel prices added a new grievance to the long list of other grievances the people hold against the Kenyan government causing widespread riots earlier this year.

Libya, Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia continue to be gripped by localised fuel shortages related to the ongoing conflicts in their respective countries and made worse by the rising oil prices, globally.

@CIG_telegram