🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC The Fed's accompanying letter:
- Announced the end of the balance sheet reduction program effective Dec. 1;
- Only 2 Fed members were opposed to a rate cut;
- Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace (while noting increased uncertainty about the economic outlook);
- Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen slightly;
- Inflation is still above target.
- Announced the end of the balance sheet reduction program effective Dec. 1;
- Only 2 Fed members were opposed to a rate cut;
- Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace (while noting increased uncertainty about the economic outlook);
- Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen slightly;
- Inflation is still above target.
🇺🇸👀 #FOMC Powell continues:
- Fed rate now sits within many estimates of the neutral range.
- Some FOMC members believe it’s time to step back and wait one cycle before further moves.
- Powell signaled a more cautious approach amid rising uncertainty.
- Government shutdown could affect the December meeting.
- #AI-related layoffs are emerging, potentially weighing on future job creation.
- AI and data center investments remain strong and less sensitive to interest rates.
- Tariffs expected to rise further, potentially adding 0.2–0.4pp to inflation short term.
- Fed rate now sits within many estimates of the neutral range.
- Some FOMC members believe it’s time to step back and wait one cycle before further moves.
- Powell signaled a more cautious approach amid rising uncertainty.
- Government shutdown could affect the December meeting.
- #AI-related layoffs are emerging, potentially weighing on future job creation.
- AI and data center investments remain strong and less sensitive to interest rates.
- Tariffs expected to rise further, potentially adding 0.2–0.4pp to inflation short term.
🗽👀 #FOMC #BTC Santiment: Many traders had positioned themselves for a dovish message from the Fed and were betting that cheap money would continue into year-end. When Powell pushed back on that idea, those bets began to unwind.
Liquidations across crypto exchanges added to the sell-off, and funding rates are pretty neutral. Ideally, exchanges will start to see a growing amount of shorts, leading to short liquidations that can propel Bitcoin back up to $115K and beyond.
Liquidations across crypto exchanges added to the sell-off, and funding rates are pretty neutral. Ideally, exchanges will start to see a growing amount of shorts, leading to short liquidations that can propel Bitcoin back up to $115K and beyond.
📊 #BTC #FOMC Ecoinometrics: Our Fed Communication Index, which tracks the tone of each FOMC press conference, shows a steady move toward neutrality.
The Fed’s language has softened enough to signal easier monetary conditions ahead, a setup that’s typically supportive for Bitcoin.
That doesn’t look like the start of a bear market.
The Fed’s language has softened enough to signal easier monetary conditions ahead, a setup that’s typically supportive for Bitcoin.
That doesn’t look like the start of a bear market.
🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Fed Meeting Minutes:
- A majority of Fed meeting participants opposed a rate cut in December;
- available labor market data indicated a continued gradual decline in labor market activity with no signs of a sharp deterioration;
- expect a gradual easing of labor market conditions in the coming months, as businesses are reluctant to hire employees but also in no hurry to lay them off;
- structural factors, such as investments in AI and other productivity-enhancing technologies, may contribute to lower labor demand;
- inflation will remain slightly elevated in the short term before gradually reaching 2%;
- long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored;
- note moderate growth in economic activity.
- A majority of Fed meeting participants opposed a rate cut in December;
- available labor market data indicated a continued gradual decline in labor market activity with no signs of a sharp deterioration;
- expect a gradual easing of labor market conditions in the coming months, as businesses are reluctant to hire employees but also in no hurry to lay them off;
- structural factors, such as investments in AI and other productivity-enhancing technologies, may contribute to lower labor demand;
- inflation will remain slightly elevated in the short term before gradually reaching 2%;
- long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored;
- note moderate growth in economic activity.
🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Powell:
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
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🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Fed Meeting Minutes:
- Available indicators suggest moderate growth in economic activity;
- employment growth has slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly through September;
- inflation has risen from the beginning of the year and remains slightly elevated;
- uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high;
- downside risks to employment have increased in recent months;
- The Fed is firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% target;
- Available indicators suggest moderate growth in economic activity;
- employment growth has slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly through September;
- inflation has risen from the beginning of the year and remains slightly elevated;
- uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high;
- downside risks to employment have increased in recent months;
- The Fed is firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% target;
🗣 macro #FOMC Fed's Statement:
- Inflation remains at an elevated level;
- The unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization;
- The economy is stable;
- The level of uncertainty remains high.
Bloomberg: The Fed pauses rate cuts and signals an extension of keeping them at the current level. #macro
- Inflation remains at an elevated level;
- The unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization;
- The economy is stable;
- The level of uncertainty remains high.
Bloomberg: The Fed pauses rate cuts and signals an extension of keeping them at the current level. #macro
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🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes:
- The labor market showed signs of stabilization after a period of gradual slowdown.
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
- The unemployment rate is expected to gradually decrease.
- Further reduction in the target range for the interest rate is likely appropriate if inflation falls as expected.
- Risks of employment decline in recent months have diminished, while the risk of more persistent inflation remains.
- The labor market showed signs of stabilization after a period of gradual slowdown.
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
- The unemployment rate is expected to gradually decrease.
- Further reduction in the target range for the interest rate is likely appropriate if inflation falls as expected.
- Risks of employment decline in recent months have diminished, while the risk of more persistent inflation remains.
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🇺🇸🗣 #macro #FOMC
Fed's statement:
- The economy continues to grow at a steady pace, but uncertainty about economic prospects remains due to events in the Middle East.
- The Fed is ready to adjust the monetary policy stance in case risks arise that could hinder the achievement of goals.
- Inflation remains elevated.
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Fed's statement:
- The economy continues to grow at a steady pace, but uncertainty about economic prospects remains due to events in the Middle East.
- The Fed is ready to adjust the monetary policy stance in case risks arise that could hinder the achievement of goals.
- Inflation remains elevated.
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🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes:
- Economic activity is growing at a steady pace.
- Job growth remains low on average, and the unemployment rate has remained virtually unchanged in recent months.
- Inflation is high.
- They believe that it will take longer than previously expected for inflation to return to the target of 2%.
- The majority of Federal Reserve representatives are considering a rate cut later this year if inflation continues to slow and the labor market weakens.
- Economic activity is growing at a steady pace.
- Job growth remains low on average, and the unemployment rate has remained virtually unchanged in recent months.
- Inflation is high.
- They believe that it will take longer than previously expected for inflation to return to the target of 2%.
- The majority of Federal Reserve representatives are considering a rate cut later this year if inflation continues to slow and the labor market weakens.
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