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US CPI

The market is highly sensitive to this print, as three major factors are currently putting upward pressure on inflation:

1. Middle East geopolitical tensions and oil price risks
2. Strengthening US Dollar
3. The Federal Reserve’s continued tightening stance

Here are the three possible scenarios:

Most Probable Scenario: CPI comes in hotter than expected
- The US Dollar strengthens further
- Bitcoin and crypto assets face selling pressure
- Gold experiences a short-term decline
- US equities, especially Nasdaq, come under pressure


Base Case: CPI prints in line with expectations
- Markets may see some volatility but remain relatively neutral overall
- The Dollar stays relatively stable
- Crypto could see a short-term pump, but upside remains limited due to the Fed’s hawkish stance

Low Probability Scenario: CPI comes in cooler than expected
- Risk assets rally across the board

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