😳 There's a 59% chance the Fed will cut the rate by 50 bps this week...

- The #Fed meeting will take place on September 18

1BB05OP6
@Сryptoz ₿

#opinion
🤔 Arthur Hayes believes Fed rate cut is a bad idea (coindesk)

"Inflation is still a problem in the US. Risk assets could collapse within days of the first #Fed rate cut."

5QSU98K0
@Сryptoz ₿

⚡️ Jerome Powell (#Fed Chair):

✔ The economy is generally strong.
✔ The labor market continues to cool, a notable improvement from earlier this year
✔ Our decision today reflects growing confidence that labor market stability can be maintained.
✔ Consumer spending remains stable.
✔ Inflation has declined markedly, but remains above our target.
✔ The labor market is not a source of increased inflationary pressure.
✔ We expect stable GDP growth.
✔ Risks to inflation have declined.
❗️ Risks to a worsening labor market (employment) situation have increased.
✔ Our forecasts are not a plan or a decision.
✔ We will adjust the Fed's monetary policy as needed.
✔ If labor market conditions worsen, we will be able to respond.
❗️ We can cut rates faster or slower, or pause if appropriate (all depends on the economy).
✔ Most Fed chairs supported today's 50bp cut, but there was a lot of debate.

AOX1AY2T
@Сryptoz ₿

❗Jerome Powell (#Fed Chair):
(Part 2)

✔ Today's interest rate decision is a good start for the Fed to begin easing its monetary policy.
✔ I don't think we are behind schedule.
✔ The labor market is stable, we intend to maintain this.
✔ The 50 bp rate cut is NOT an attempt to catch up or change the pace of Fed monetary policy easing.
✔ We want to maintain a strong US economy.
✔ Retail sales and GDP for the 2nd quarter indicate sustainable economic growth - this will also support the labor market.
✔ The Fed was very patient, other global central banks started cutting rates earlier.
✔ There is no need for further cooling of the labor market to reduce inflation to 2%.
✔ We are not declaring victory over inflation yet.
✔ Housing inflation is one of the factors that is slowing down the process a little.
✔ We could have easily cut the rate in July if we had had employment data at that time.

21E8Z494
@Сryptoz ₿

🏆🏆🏆
💥 56.1% chance #Fed will cut rate by 50 bps in November…

Earlier, markets were more likely to expect a 25 bps rate cut.

❗️Bloomberg: “CB consumer confidence index fell by a three-year low (6.9 points). In the U.S., concerns about the labor market and the overall economic outlook grew.”

WO9G56I8
@Сryptoz ₿

🏆🏆🏆
🇺🇸 J. Powell did NOT comment on the monetary policy of the #Fed today…

Market expectations remained unchanged - with a probability of 56.2% the Fed will cut the rate by 50 bp in November.

J. Powell's next speech is scheduled for September 30.

KLB8LWJ3
@Сryptoz ₿

💸 The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $29 billion in one week!

▪️US Treasury Secretary J. Yellen:
- The labor market and inflation indicate that the US economy is on the path to a "soft landing."
- It looks like the Fed will continue to cut interest rates.

▪️Head of hedge fund Appaloosa Management:
- The Fed rate cut gives the Chinese central bank better opportunities to implement its fiscal and monetary stimulus policy (inject liquidity).
- Now everyone is actively buying Chinese stocks.

📌 Market expectations (#Fed rate):
- November 7: a 50 bp cut to 4.25-4.50%.
- December 18: a 25 bp cut to 4.00-4.25%.
- January 29, 2025: a 25 bp reduction to 3.75-4.00%.
- March 19, 2025: a 25 bp reduction to 3.50-3.75%.

6XT6WL54
@Сryptoz ₿

💥 FedWatch: The probability of a 50 bp #Fed rate cut at the November meeting has decreased! (30.7%)

Now 69.3% of investors expect a 25 bp cut.

▪️The US employment rate exceeded all forecasts, showing the largest increase since March 2024 #records

▪️The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, dispelling fears of a significant deterioration in the US labor market (Bloomberg)

FMVVKQT9
@Сryptoz ₿

🧐 Neel Kashkari, #Fed Chairman: "Bitcoin remains a worthless asset even after 12 years of existence."

- Modest interest rate cuts are appropriate in the coming quarters (Reuters)

- The Fed is in the final stages of reducing inflation to its 2% target.

- The labor market remains strong.

- China is nowhere near competitive with the US, and the yuan is not capable of replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

UFKE40HO
@Сryptoz ₿

🇺🇸 "Jerome Powell was too hasty in cutting the Fed rate" - Donald Trump

- Being the head of the #Fed is the best job in government, you just have to show up once a month and flip a coin to decide whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

- If I become president, I should have a say in the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

- I can protect the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

0EVNMAUD
@Сryptoz ₿

🏆🏆🏆
#fed #opinion
🎯 With a probability of 98.9%, the Fed rate will be cut by 25 bp today.

The Fed may revise its monetary policy at the December meeting (it will not cut the rate), when the chairmen fully understand Donald Trump's economic plans - marketwatch

❗️The Fed meeting will take place today

@Сryptoz ₿

🏆🏆🏆
🇺🇸 The new US president may allow J. Powell to remain as head of the #Fed until the end of his term (May 2026) – Donald Trump's adviser

@Сryptoz ₿

#opinion
🫢 Peter Schiff has suddenly fallen in love with Bitcoin (and now he has a plan) – twitter

“I finally came to my senses. Bitcoin will solve Social Security.”

❗️The US Social Security Trust Fund (SSA) needs to sell $2,700,000,000,000 in government bonds and then buy 25% of the Bitcoin supply (though this would require a revision of #QE).

▪️This purchase will lead to the “inevitable moon” of BTC, to about $20,000,000.

▪️Accordingly, the value of SSA will increase to $100,000,000,000,000 thanks to the purchase of BTC.

▪️The fund’s surplus will be so large that talk of raising taxes or the retirement age will cease. Everyone wins. Taxes can be spent on Social Security salaries.

▪️Problem: All the tax revenue from Social Security is used to buy Bitcoin, how will the government pay its benefits? If the fund starts selling BTC, it will crash the crypto market.

▪️Solution: The US government will adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Then put its BTC as collateral in the #Fed, which will provide cash to pay benefits.

▪️Once Bitcoin fixes Social Security, the government can move on to fix EVERYTHING else with it.

P.S. "Too bad it took Satoshi so long to come up with this cure-all."

@Сryptoz ₿

🪙 The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $43.4 billion in one week!

▪️Collins, Fed Chair:
- I think we should NOT cut interest rates too quickly.

▪️Cook, Fed Chair:
- It makes sense to continue cutting rates to a neutral level.
- But we can consider a PAUSE scenario, it all depends on macro data.

▪️Bowman, Fed Chair:
- The Fed should take a cautious approach to rate cuts.
- Inflation is a concern.

▪️Barkin, Fed Chair:
- The US has become more vulnerable to inflation shocks.
- If inflation remains above our target, this will give grounds to be more cautious in cutting rates.

▪️Goolsbee, Fed Chair:
- It makes sense for the Fed to slow the pace of rate cuts.

❗️Market expectations (#Fed rate):
- December 18: 25 bp cut to 4.25-4.50% (probability = 55.9%)
- January 29, 2025: PAUSE.
- March 19, 2025: PAUSE.
- May 17, 2025: PAUSE.

@Сryptoz ₿

🆕 Jerome Powell (#Fed Chair): Bitcoin is used as a speculative asset. It is a competitor to gold, NOT the US dollar.

✔ Overall US macro data is good, but there is some pressure on low-income families.

@Сryptoz ₿

🔥 Bloomberg: Donald Trump questions the decisions of the head of the #Fed on the interest rate.

«I think I understand the interest rate better than the Fed. I’m sure the chairmen of the Fed will listen to me» — the President of the United States is going to achieve a reduction in the interest rate.

Donald Trump plans to meet with Jerome Powell at the «right time» and discuss this issue.

@Сryptoz ₿

⚡ Jerome Powell (head of #Fed): There will be no CBDC in the United States as long as I am the head of the Fed!

J. Powell addresses the U.S. Senate Banking Committee with a report on the DCP.

Broadcast: link

@Сryptoz ₿

🇺🇸 Kugler, Chairman of the #Fed:

❗️Tariffs are likely to lead to a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in inflation.
- Uncertainty around tariffs has already affected the economy.
- The increase in duties is likely to have significant economic consequences.
- Progress in the fight against inflation has slowed down.
- Conditions in the labor market are mostly stable.
- I supported the preservation of the interest rate at the current restrictive level.
- The Fed is in a good position to cope with the changing macroeconomic outlook (Economic Outlook)

@Сryptoz ₿

🇺🇸 The Fed is cracking at the seams before the December meeting (WSJ)

One of the most acute conflicts in the entire eight-year leadership of Jerome Powell is flarning up in the department.

What’s happening:
➤ « Hawks» demand a pause - they believe that inflation is gaining strength again, and business is ready to shift tariff costs to consumers.
➤ «Pigeons» are afraid of recession - the labor market is weakening, employment is almost not growing.
➤ Due to the shutdown, the government stopped publishing key data, and each camp now reinforces the position with «private sources» and rumors.

Jerome Powell had to publicly state that the December rate cut is far from being resolved.

Against the background of simultaneous inflation growth and employment stagnation, the United States is immersed in a classic stagflation scenario - the consequences of Donald Trump’s tariff and migration policy.

Investors are still betting on a rate reduction, but disagreements within the Fed are already felt more strongly than in the whole of 2025.

📌 Market expectations (rate #Fed):

- December 10: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.50-3.75%.
- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.
- March 18, 2026: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.25-3.50%.
- April 29, 2026: PAUSE.
- June 17, 2026: PAUSE.
- July 20, 2026: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.00-3.25%.

@Сryptoz ₿