احتمال کاهش نرخ بهره در ماه MAY از ۳۹٪ به ۲۹٪ کاهش یافته.
این داده ها برای بازار سها، طلا و کریپتو اصلا خوب نیست.
#INTEREST_RATE #FED

نرخ بهره وام های مسکن مجدد به ۷٪ بازگشت.
این داده ها اصلا مطلوب فدرال رزرو نیست.
با این شرایط احتمال کاهش نرخ بهره در ماه جولای هم به نظر من جای شک بسیاری دارد.
اگر بازار کار همچنان فشرده بماندو چند داده تورمی بالا بیاید، شاهد اتفاقات دردناکی در بازارها بایستی باشیم.
#INTEREST_RATE #MORTGAGE_RATE #FED

احتمال تعویق کاهش نرخ بهره تا بعد از انتخابات ریاست جمهوری.
#INTEREST_RATE
#FED

خانم BOWMAN امروز نکات جالبی رو مطرح کرده:
ایشون از ریسک افزایش تورم و نیاز به حفظ نرخ بهره در این سطوح گفتند.
موردی که بازار کوچکترین توجهی نمیکنه و کلا ریسکها در این حوزه رو نادیده گرفته.
#FED
#RISK
#INFLATION

#FED
#INFLATION

FED 50 BPS RATE CUT IN SEPT IS NOW PRICED AS MORE LIKELY THAN A 25 BPS CUT -- SHORT-TERM U.S. INTEREST-RATE FUTURES

#FED
#INTEREST_RATE
#BLOOMBERG

This Fed rate cuts will do nothing. It’s too late to “save things”.

#FED
#RECCESION

Why are stocks selling off?
2 reasons
Market getting ahead of Kamala's proposed taxes on unrealized capital gains.

Market throwing tantrums to force FED to cut by
50 BPS on 18th.

#FED
#ELECTION

The current crossroads we are at: According to Goldman, the S&P500 typically rallies 10-17% post the first rate cut if there’s no recession, but drops 15-20% if there is a recession.

#INTEREST_RATE
#RECESSION
#FED
#US500CASH

THERE IS NOW A 67% CHANCE THAT THE FED WILL BE CUT RATES BY 50 BPS ON WEDNESDAY

IT WAS JUST A 14% CHANCE 2 DAYS AGO.

#FED
#INTEREST_RATE
@Sharifazadeh

With the market pricing in 71% chance of 50bps via futures (57% implied via OIS) going into FOMC, the 'risks' are now stacked to the disappointment side if they do 25bps.

#FED
#INTEREST_RATE

Deja vu?
September 18, 2007: 50bp rate cut
September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut

#FED
#INTEREST_RATE
#US500CASH
#TECHNICAL

LAST 2 TIMES THE FED CUT BY 0.50% WAS A DISASTER FOR MARKETS

In 2001 and 2007, when the Fed cut by 0.50% like yesterday, the S&P 500 initially rallied but after a year was down by 15% and 22%.

#INTEREST_RATE
#FED
#US500CASH
#SPX
#RECESSION

There is now a 51.4% chance that we will see another 50bps rate cut in the next FED meeting!

#FED
#INTEREST_RATE
@Sharifazadeh

The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of a US recession by June 2025.
The percentage has more than doubled over the last month and is up from just 10% in July.

Furthermore, the market is pricing in a 50% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 200 basis points over the next 8 months.

By comparison, the Federal Reserve expects 150 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This comes after a 50 basis point rate reduction on Wednesday which marked the largest surprise for markets since 2008.

#RECESSION
#FED
@Sharifazadeh

بعد از جلسه فدرال رزرو، این هفته سخنرانی ها و نظرات اعضای فدرال رزرو رو خواهیم داشت که میتونه سرنخ مهمی در مورد آینده نشست های بعدی بده:

Monday: Bostic, Goolsbee, Kashkari

Thursday: Collins, Kulger, Powell, Williams, Barr, Yellen, Kashkari

#FED