A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets.

Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves.

📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p

The Week On-Chain 12, 2026
Awaiting Liquidity

#BTC has stabilised around $70k, with ETF flows improving and sell-side pressure easing. However, muted spot volume and overhead supply suggest stronger demand is still needed to turn this into a recovery.

Executive Summary

- Unrealised losses have increased but remain within historical norms, indicating stress without full capitulation.

- US Spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive after sustained outflows, signalling early signs of institutional re-engagement.

- Spot volumes remain subdued, with limited expansion on the recovery, suggesting weak conviction and selective dip-buying.

Read the full Week On-Chain 👇
https://glassno.de/4sATTn1

The Week On-Chain 15, 2026
Approaching the Ceiling

#BTC holds ~$74K, ~5% below key $78K resistance. Spot and ETF demand improve, but profit-taking and cautious options positioning suggest a twitchy, flow-driven recovery lacking strong conviction.

Executive Summary

- Bitcoin has expanded to ~$74K, now 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78.1K, which remains the key near-term resistance. Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit sits at 43.2%, leaving room for further upside before typical distribution thresholds are reached.

- Profit-taking activity is rising, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength. A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply.

- Institutional positioning is stabilizing, with ETF inflows and CME exposure rebounding. However, participation remains below prior highs, pointing to a cautious and selective re-engagement rather than a full risk-on shift.

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The Week On-Chain 16, 2026
Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial

#BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance.


Executive Summary

- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.1k for the first time since mid-January, a significant mean reversion, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80.1k now the immediate resistance ceiling.

- ETF flows have turned modestly positive again, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into inflow territory, signaling a tentative return of institutional demand after a prolonged period of outflows.

- Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta flipping higher and indicating renewed buyer aggression, particularly across offshore venues.

- Gamma and flow frame the setup: upside faces mechanical resistance near 80K, while a move back toward 75K carries higher downside acceleration risk.


Read the full Week On-Chain

First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape.

After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing

Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market cycles. ▶ https://glassno.de/3QxhI0I

The Week On-Chain 17, 2026
Trapped Below Market Mean

#BTC remains capped below the True Market Mean, with support at $65k–$70k. Spot selling is easing and flows stabilise, but demand is weak. Heavy short positioning leaves room for squeezes in a range-bound market.



Executive Summary
- Price has rejected at the True Market Mean (~$79k) and short-term holder cost basis, confirming resistance and reinforcing a mid-term downside bias.

- Spot selling pressure is easing, with volume delta recovering toward neutral and early signs of buyer re-engagement emerging.

- Perpetual futures positioning has flipped to a record net short bias, highlighting elevated hedging activity and squeeze potential.



Read the full Week On-Chain

The Week On-Chain 18, 2026
Bulls Approach the Ceiling

#BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through.


Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.2k and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79.1k, with holding above these levels suggesting a short-lived deep value phase and $85.2k as the next key resistance.


- Glassnode’s Moderate Strategy has re-entered allocation after BTC reclaimed ~$76K, capturing recent upside while maintaining a focus on downside protection.

- Front-end implied volatility has repriced higher following the breakout, while realized volatility lags, rebuilding a positive volatility risk premium.



Read the full Week On-Chain

The Week On-Chain 21, 2026
Stalling at the Threshold

#BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through.


Executive Summary

- Bitcoin is consolidating within the $75k–$78k range, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean converging near $78k, creating a top-heavy structure where a sustained hold above the True Market Mean is required to support a pre-bull market transition.


- Spot demand remains directionless despite improving price action, with Spot Volume Delta holding near neutral and BTC recently reclaiming the $110K region, suggesting buying interest is stabilising but conviction remains limited.


- Implied volatility continues to compress across the curve as realized volatility trends lower, reinforcing calmer short term conditions and supportive carry for volatility sellers.


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#BTC investors are paying up for upside exposure.

25-delta call vol has been outpacing puts at every maturity since the breakout.

Skew is at its lowest of the year across the curve and flipped negative on the front end.

https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2090786305105973305

#BTC spot ETFs recorded their highest monthly inflows since July 2025.

They pulled in ~$3.5 billion in August.

#BTC is trading like a different asset than it was in March.

Back then its 90d correlation with the Nasdaq-100 was 0.57 and with gold 0.21.

Today the readings are swapped: 0.22 NDX and 0.57 gold. https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2095871699103179145

Most #BTC with a visible public key is exposed through address reuse, and that part has been growing.

The balance in reused addresses rose from 3.79M to 4.33M BTC over the past year, and now covers 21.5% of circulating supply.