✍✍Challenges Faced By The WTO
GS Paper - 2
International Treaties & Agreements
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has been the cornerstone of the multilateral rules-based global trading system since its inception in 1995.
However, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, all three of the organization’s functions – providing a negotiation forum to liberalize trade and establish new rules, monitoring trade policies, and resolving disputes between its 164 members are facing challenges.
Moreover, with trade tensions increasingly politicized and Covid-19 creating huge economic challenges, a modernized and fully functioning WTO is more essential than ever.

👉👉Issues Related to WTO
China’s State Capitalism: The nature of China’s economic system, combined with the size and growth of its economy, has created tensions in the global trading system.

China’s state-owned enterprises present a major challenge to the free-market global trading system.

However, a critical part of the problem is that the rulebook of the WTO is inadequate for addressing the challenges that China presents in respect of intellectual property, state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies.

It is due to this US-China are engaged in Trade war.

Institutional Issues: The Appellate Body’s operations have effectively been suspended since December 2019, as the US’s blocking of appointments has left the body without a quorum of adjudicators needed to hear appeals.

The crisis with the dispute settlement function of the WTO is closely linked to the breakdown in its negotiation function.

Lack of Transparency: There is a problem in WTO negotiations as there is no agreed definition of what constitutes a developed or developing country at the WTO.

Members can currently self-designate as developing countries to receive ‘special and differential treatment’ – a practice that is the subject of much contention.

E-commerce & Digital Trade: While the global trade landscape has changed significantly over the past 25 years, WTO rules have not kept pace.

In 1998, realizing that e-commerce would play a growing role in the global economy, WTO members established a WTO e-commerce moratorium to examine all trade-related issues relating to global electronic commerce.

As the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates the shift to e-commerce, rules to regulate online trade will be more important than ever. But in contrast to trade in goods and services, few international rules govern cross-border e-commerce.

Agriculture and Development: The WTO Agreement on Agriculture, which came into force in 1995, was an important milestone.

Agreement on Agriculture targets reform of subsidies and high trade barriers, which distort agricultural trade.

However, agreement on agriculture is facing issues due to food security and development requirements for developing countries like India.

Way Forward
New Set of Rules: Modernizing the WTO will necessitate the development of a new set of rules for dealing with digital trade and e-commerce.

WTO members will also have to deal more effectively with China’s trade policies and practices, including how to better handle state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies.

Environmental Sustainability: Given the pressing issues around climate change, increased efforts to align trade and environmental sustainability could help to both tackle climate change and reinvigorate the WTO.
Trade and the WTO have key roles to play in efforts to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement climate goals.
Also, the WTO can play a role in reforming fossil fuel subsidies.
For example, at the Buenos Aires Ministerial Conference in 2017, a coalition of 12 WTO members led by New Zealand called on the WTO ‘to achieve ambitious and effective disciplines on inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption’.

Conclusion
In future, WTO members will have to strike a balance between moving forward with negotiations on 21st-century issues and keeping sight of the unresolved ‘old trade issues’ such as agriculture and development.

✍✍India’s 40th World Heritage Site: Dholavira
✍✍DHOLA VIRA DISCOVERS
Recently, UNESCO has announced the Harappan city of Dholavira in Gujarat as India’s 40th world heritage site. It is the first site of Indus Valley Civilisation (IVC) in India to be included on the coveted list.

About Dholavira:
It is one of the most remarkable and well-preserved urban settlements in South Asia.
👉It was discovered in 1968 by archaeologist Jagat Pati Joshi.
👉After Mohen-jo-Daro, Ganweriwala and Harappa in Pakistan and Rakhigarhi in Haryana of India, Dholavira is the fifth largest metropolis of Indus Valley Civilization (IVC).
👉IVC flourished around 2,500 BC, in the western part of South Asia, what today is Pakistan and Western India. It was basically an urban civilization and the people lived in well-planned and well-built towns, which were also the centers for trade.
👉The site contains ruins of an ancient IVC/Harappan city. It comprises two parts: a walled city and a cemetery to the west of the city.
👉The walled city consists of a fortified Castle with attached fortified Bailey and Ceremonial Ground, and a fortified MiddleTown and a Lower Town.
👉A series of reservoirs are found to the east and south of the Citadel.

Location:
The ancient city of Dholavira is an archaeological site at Kachchh District, in the state of Gujarat, which dates from the 3rd to mid-2nd millennium BCE.
👉Dholavira’s location is on the Tropic of Cancer.
👉It is located on Khadir bet island in the Kachchh Desert Wildlife Sanctuary in the Great Rann of Kachchh.
👉Unlike other Harappan antecedent towns normally located near to rivers and perennial sources of water, the location of Dholavira in the island of Khadir bet.
👉This was strategic to harness different mineral and raw material sources (copper, shell, agate-carnelian, steatite, lead, banded limestone, among others).
👉It also facilitated internal as well as external trade to the Magan (modern Oman peninsula) and Mesopotamian regions.

Archeological Findings:
Artifacts that were found here include terracotta pottery, beads, gold and copper ornaments, seals, fish hooks, animal figurines, tools, urns, and some imported vessels.
👉Remains of a copper smelter indicate Harappans, who lived in Dholavira, knew metallurgy.
👉It is believed that traders of Dholavira used to source copper ore from present-day Rajasthan and Oman and UAE and exported finished products.
👉It was also a hub of manufacturing jewellery made of shells and semi-precious stones, like agate and used to export timber.
👉10 large stone inscriptions, carved in Indus Valley script, perhaps the world’s earliest sign board.
👉Near the ancient city is a fossil park where wood fossils are preserved.
👉Unlike graves at other IVC sites, no mortal remains of humans have been discovered at Dholavira.

Distinct Features of the Dholavira Site:
Cascading series of water reservoirs.
Outer fortification.
👉Two multi-purpose grounds, one of which was used for festivities and other as a marketplace.
👉Nine gates with unique designs.
👉Funerary architecture featuring tumulus — hemispherical structures like the Buddhist Stupas.
👉Multi-layered defensive mechanisms, extensive use of stone in construction and special burial structures.

Decline of Dholavira:
👉Its decline also coincided with the collapse of Mesopotamia, indicating the integration of economies.
👉Harappans, who were maritime people, lost a huge market, affecting the local mining, manufacturing, marketing and export businesses once Mesopotamia fell.
👉Dholavira entered a phase of severe aridity due to climate change and rivers like Saraswati drying up.
👉Due to a drought-like situation, people started migrating toward the Ganges valley or towards south Gujarat and further beyond in Maharashtra.
👉Further, the Great Rann of Kutch, which surrounds the Khadir island on which Dholavira is located, used to be navigable, but the sea receded gradually and the Rann became a mudflat.

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✍✍What is net zero?
We’ve all heard the term net zero, but what exactly does it mean? Put simply, net zero refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere. We reach net zero when the amount we add is no more than the amount taken away. But how can we achieve this and why does it matter?
From countries and companies to individuals, tackling climate change is at the top of the agenda; and one way we can help to do this is to reach net zero. Indeed, the UK became the world’s first major economy to set a target of being net zero by 2050.

✍✍What is climate change?
Evidence shows that our planet has been getting hotter. The warmest 20 years on record have been in the last 22 years according to the World Meteorological Organisation and the warmest four were all very recent: 2015 to 2018. Global average temperatures are now 1℃ higher than in the pre-industrial era.
A degree doesn’t sound like a lot, but the reality is that this incremental warming already appears to be having a negative impact. What’s more, if recent trends continue, this is set to worsen, with predictions of global temperatures increasing by as much as 3-5℃ by 2100.
Even with this tiny rise in global temperatures we are feeling the effects of climate change, with erratic weather patterns, including: heatwaves; floods and severe storms; loss of polar ice; and, rising sea levels. This will only get worse if global warming intensifies.

✍✍What is causing climate change?
It’s widely recognised by scientists and governments that climate change is being triggered by higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Their name derives from the greenhouse effect they create by warming the Earth’s surface and the air above it. This is caused by gases that trap energy from the sun. The most common greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane.
Carbon dioxide is the most dangerous and abundant of the greenhouse gases, which is why cutting carbon emissions, carbon footprints or seeking low-carbon alternatives are suggested as ways to address climate change.

✍✍How can we stop climate change?
The excess of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is triggering harmful global warming, so reducing the amount of these gases should help to tackle climate change. This can be done in two ways:

👉lower the emissions we are sending into the atmosphere, from activities such as industrial processes, power generation, transport and intensive agriculture
👉remove greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere, for example by capturing carbon created during industrial processes before it’s released or planting more trees.

✍✍What does it mean to be net zero?
Net zero means achieving a balance between the greenhouse gases put into the atmosphere and those taken out.
Think about it like a bath – turn on the taps and you add more water, pull out the plug and water flows out. The amount of water in the bath depends on both the input from the taps and the output via the plughole. To keep the amount of water in the bath at the same level, you need to make sure that the input and output are balanced.
Reaching net zero applies the same principal, requiring us to balance the amount of greenhouse gases we emit with the amount we remove. When what we add is no more than what we take away we reach net zero. This state is also referred to as carbon neutral; although zero emissions and zero carbon are slightly different, as they usually mean that no emissions were produced in the first place.

✍✍What’s the difference between gross zero and net zero?
Given the impact that carbon emissions have on our planet, you might wonder why we aren’t aiming for zero, or gross zero, rather than net zero. Gross zero would mean stopping all emissions, which isn’t realistically attainable across all sectors of our lives and industry. Even with best efforts to reduce them, there will still be some emissions.

Net zero looks at emissions overall, allowing for the removal of any unavoidable emissions, such as those from aviation or manufacturing. Removing greenhouse gases could be via nature, as trees take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or through new technology or changing industrial processes.


✍✍Why is net zero important?
Net zero is important as it’s the best way we can tackle climate change by reducing global warming. What we do in the next decade to limit emissions will be critical to the future, which is why every country, sector, industry and each one of us must work together to find ways to cut the carbon we produce.

Biodiversity & Environment
Net Zero by 2050
GS Paper - 2
GS Paper - 3
Important International6 Institutions

NZE by 2050
Recently, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) released its Net Zero Emissions (NZE) Roadmap - named ‘Net Zero by 2050’.
It is the World's first comprehensive energy roadmap which comes ahead of the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP) 26 climate change convention in Glasgow, Scotland in November 2021.

‘Net zero emissions’ refers to achieving an overall balance between greenhouse gas emissions produced and greenhouse gas emissions taken out of the atmosphere.

Need:
Climate pledges by governments till date even if fully achieved would fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050 and give the world an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C.

Aim of the Roadmap/
Examine Impact:
To examine the impacts of announced NZE pledges and what they might mean for the energy sector.

New Energy Pathway:
To develop a new energy-sector pathway towards achieving NZE globally by 2050.

Recommend Governments:
To set out key policy recommendations for governments to act upon in the near-term, and a long-term agenda for change to achieve net-zero goals, including with a view to reaching other Sustainable Development Goals.

Principles to be Followed:
Technology Neutrality:
Technology neutrality, with adoption driven by costs, technological readiness, country and market conditions and trade-offs with wider societal goals.

Technology Neutrality is generally described as the freedom of individuals and organizations to choose the most appropriate and suitable technology to their needs and requirements for development, acquisition, use or commercialisation, without dependencies on knowledge involved as information or data.

Universal Cooperation:
Universal international cooperation, in which all countries contribute to net zero, with an eye to a ‘just transition’ and where advanced economies lead.

Minimizing Volatility:
An orderly transition that seeks to minimise stranded assets where possible, while ensuring energy security and minimising volatility in energy markets.

Milestones Set by the Roadmap: More than 400 milestones to guide the global journey to net zero by 2050 which include:
Fossil Fuels:
No investment in new fossil fuel supply projects, and no further final investment decisions for new unabated coal plants.

Vehicle sale:
No sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars by 2035.

Electricity Generation:
The global electricity sector should reach net-zero emissions by 2040.

It calls for annual additions of solar power to reach 630 gigawatts by 2030, and those of wind power to reach 390 gigawatts.

Together, this is four times the record level set in 2020.

It suggests the following on global electricity generation towards 2050:
A. 714% more renewables.
B. 104% more nuclear.
C. 93% less coal (and all remaining coal with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
D. 85% less natural gas (with 73% of that with CCS).

Significance:
It is supposed to provide a pathway to bridge the current gap between rhetoric and reality in reducing GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the energy and industry sectors.

Criticism/Ignorance:
IEA did not consider historical emitters, ignoring the principle of ‘climate justice’.

Developed countries benefited from the Industrial Revolution at the cost of emitting GHGs, leading to climate change.

Hence, they have the economies to decarbonise, allowing space for poor and developing countries to get financing and innovation organised to switch to cleaner energy options.

Regulations Needed:

There is potentially an over-reliance on behavioral change to consume less energy.

Regulations will be essential to positively motivate constructive social change in economies.

International Energy Agency

IEA is an autonomous Intergovernmental Organisation established in 1974 in Paris, France.

IEA mainly focuses on its energy policies which include economic development, energy security and environmental protection. These policies are also known as the 3 E’s of IEA.

India became an Associate member of IEA in March 2017 but it was in engagement with IEA long before its association with the organization.

Recently, India has inked a Strategic Partnership Agreement with the IEA to strengthen cooperation in global energy security, stability and sustainability.

The World Energy Outlook Report is released by the IEA annually.

Recently, it has released the India Energy Outlook 2021 Report.

IEA Clean Coal Centre is dedicated to providing independent information and analysis on how coal can become a cleaner source of energy, compatible with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.


Way Forward
The world is facing a formidable task of transforming the energy sector within 30 years in a cost-effective manner, even as the world economy more than doubles in size and the global population increases by 2 billion people.

The need for the world to reach NZE by 2050 lies in the major interim steps that need to be taken through 2030 — to engineer cheap and green energy from hydrogen and renewable energy while making them accessible to all.

Governance
✍✍NPR and Census 2021

Introduction
The office of the Registrar General of India (RGI) has said the schedule or the questionnaire of the National Population Register (NPR) is “being finalised” and the information about the expected date of first phase of Census 2021 is “not available.”


Main body part
The first phase of Census 2021 and updating of the NPR were postponed indefinitely until further orders on 25th March 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

👉As many as 13 States and Union Territories have opposed the update of the NPR due to its link with the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA).

✍✍National Population Register (NPR ):

NPR is a database containing a list of all usual residents of the country. Its objective is to have a comprehensive identity database of people residing in the country.

A usual resident for the purposes of NPR is a person who has resided in a place for six months or more, and intends to reside there for another six months or more.

The NPR was first collected in 2010 and then updated in 2015.

It is generated through house-to-house enumeration during the “house-listing” phase of the census, which is held once in 10 years.

The last census was in 2011, and the next was scheduled for 2021.

✍✍NPR vs Census:

✍✍Objective:

The census involves a detailed questionnaire - there were 29 items to be filled up in the 2011 census - aimed at eliciting the particulars of every person, including age, sex, marital status, children, occupation, birthplace, mother tongue, religion, disability and whether they belonged to any Scheduled Caste or Scheduled Tribe.

On the other hand, the NPR collects basic demographic data and biometric particulars.

✍✍Legal Basis:

The census is legally backed by the Census Act, 1948.

The NPR is a mechanism outlined in a set of rules framed under the Citizenship Act, 1955.

✍✍NPR and NRC:

According to the Citizenship Rules framed in 2003, the NPR is the first step towards compilation of the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRIC) or NRC.

Section 14A was inserted in the Citizenship Act, 1955, in 2004, providing for the compulsory registration of every citizen of India and the issue of a “national identity card” to him or her. It also said the Central government may maintain a “National Register of Indian Citizens”.

The Registrar General India shall act as the “National Registration Authority” (and will function as the Registrar General of Citizen Registration).

The Registrar General is also the country’s Census Commissioner.

After a list of residents is created (i.e. NPR), a nationwide NRC could go about verifying the citizens from that list.

Recently, NRC for Assam was prepared.

✍✍Concerns:

Some States such as West Bengal and Rajasthan have objected to additional questions to be asked in the fresh NPR such as “date and place of birth of father and mother, last place of residence and mother tongue”.

There are apprehensions and fears that the CAA 2019, followed by a country-wide NRC, will benefit non-Muslims excluded from the proposed citizens’ register, while excluded Muslims will have to prove their citizenship.

The CAA 2019 allows citizenship on basis of religion to six undocumented communities from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh who entered India on or before 31st December, 2014.

Six Communities are: Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians.

✍✍Government’s Stand:
The government has denied that the CAA and the NRC are linked.

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) informed a parliamentary panel earlier this year that there was a need to update the NPR to “incorporate the changes due to birth, death and migration” and “Aadhaar is individual data whereas NPR contains family wise data.”

The MHA informed the panel that it proposes to collect details on additional questions such as “date and place of birth of parents” in the NPR to “facilitate back end data processing and making the data items of date and place of birth complete for all household(s)”.

 



✍✍Demand for bifurcating Meghalaya gets political push

A Garo tribal woman planting ginger in their Jhum field in Tura, Garo Hills of Meghalaya. The demand for carving out Garoland comprising five districts dominated by the matrilineal Garo community has become intense in recent times.

Hill State People’s Democratic Party forms panel with pro-bifurcation body

The demand for bifurcating Meghalaya on ethnic lines has received a political push ahead of bypolls to three Assembly constituencies in the State.
The demand for carving out Garoland comprising five districts dominated by the matrilineal Garo community has arguably been the most intense in the northeast after the Bodoland statehood movement in Assam.
While the Bodoland issue has been put on the back-burner after the Bodoland Territorial Region accord in January 2020, a regional political party catering to the aspirations of the Khasi-Jaintia communities in Meghalaya has come to an understanding with an umbrella organisation seeking a separate State for the Garos.

On October 12, the Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP) and the Garo Hills State Movement Committee (GHSMC) formed a coordination panel for the proper demarcation of the boundaries of the two States that Meghalaya is envisaged to be divided into. One of the States would be for the Garos and the other for the Khasi-Jaintia communities.
The HSPDP is a constituent of the National People’s Party-led alliance government in Meghalaya. The BJP, too, is a partner in this coalition government.
“We want to clearly define and demarcate the boundaries of the separate States intended to be created for the Khasi-Jaintia and Garo people so that we do not face a problem similar to that of Assam,” HSPDP president K.P. Pangniang said.
The HSPDP and the GHSMC, a conglomerate of seven Garo organisations including a regional political party named Garo National Council, in July decided on a joint push for the bifurcation of Meghalaya.
“We will release booklets in local languages to justify our demand for the creation of a separate State for the Khasi-Jaintias,” Mr. Pangniang said.
The GHSMC in December 2018 revived the demand for a separate Garoland State after several extremist groups had taken up arms for a similar objective. Former extremist leaders are part of this renewed movement.
The Garo Hills region, comprising five of 11 districts and 24 of 60 Assembly seats in Meghalaya, is spread across 10,102 sq. km. According to the 2011 Census, this region had 13.94 lakh people, compared to the 22.44 lakh spread across the Khasi-Jaintia Hills region covering 15,546 sq. km.
The Meghalaya Assembly in March 2014 rejected a resolution for the creation of a separate Garoland State in the western region. Meghalaya was carved out of Assam as a State in 1972.

SOURCE:- TH

✍✍Separate State demands in North East India : an analysis

There have been news about demand for separate states by many small or big tribes in North East India. While many tribes have their own autonomous councils which control many social welfare departments except police, judiciary, personals, PSUs and other central government departments.
Still, there are reports of ‘Bandhs’, agitation for demanding separate states. It may be mentioned quickly here that, apart from Manipur, almost all other states were once district of Assam! But one by one, many states were created carving out areas from Assam. Recently, separate state demand by Bodos are making headlines.
But apart from Bodoland, there are periodic demand by Koch for Kamatapur, Misings, Dimasas, Karbis in Assam, Tribals in Tripura, Garos in Meghalaya, few Naga tribes in Nagaland are also heard. Though almost all these tribes enjoy autonomy in the form of Sixth Schedule under Indian Constitution or Autonomous District Councils. So what went wrong or what are the reasons for this separate state demands tribal in North East India ?

Few known or much debated reasons on internet forums are listed below :-
👉👉1. Lack of development and exploitation by forward communities
This is one of reasons cited by the organisations who have been demanding separate states. Most probably, this kind issue should be probed by third party with known parameters.
👉👉2. Assamese Chauvinism in Language agitation in 1972 and Illegal Immigration in 1979-1985
Many opine these two incidents had induced fear in tribal about losing their culture, language by majority Assamese speakers. So almost all tribes had formed their student organisation in line with AASU during these period. Ad many opine that the process of assimilation by tribal with mainstream Assamese society was not only halted, but also reversed.
👉👉3. Past precedence of creating separate states
In order to quell armed separatist movements as well as ease of deploying laws like AFSPA may have forced Government of India to create separate states from Assam in 1960s. But this has created a precedence and many tribes now who now think it is quite achievable to get separate state.
👉👉4. Sense of Alienation by main stream forward society
Though discrimination of tribal on the basis of caste was not almost non existent in North East India, but with more education among tribal had made them aware how they have fallen behind other communities which may have forced them to be suspicious about other communities. Lack of proper implementation of “Tribal Belt and Block” system had also fueled the fear.
👉👉5. Separatism by historical reasons
Many tribe had a history where they were quite independent and self reliant in their own small geographical confinement and used to live isolated. But with modernization and advent of civilisation, this isolation has decreased and dependency on others have increased. Tribes had to abandon some rituals or culture in order to keep pace with modernisation.

Most probably, in order to address or solve this separatism problems, Government/NGOs should list out the grievances by these tribal people and try to convince to address or solve these issues with concrete steps with time deadline using SMART formula instead of failed experiments with autonomous councils. We would like to add one more wort for T : Transparency. Autonomous councils have been accused of rampant corruptions recently. People should be educated using road shows, SMS bulk messaging, Radios, TV etc. so that everyone is aware of the facilities provided and how to get them. Third party auditor should be employed for overseeing any project implementation.

COAL CRISIS
UPSC (CSE ) MAINS -2021


✍✍KEY POINTS

👉👉China isn't the only huge Asian economy with a coal shortage now

👉👉China is not alone — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.

👉👉As of Oct. 6, 80% of India's 135 coal-powered plants had less than 8 days of supplies left — more than half of those had stocks worth two days or fewer.

👉👉The power crisis would likely have an immediate impact on India's nascent economic recovery which is being led by industrial activity instead of services.

👉👉A cattle-pulled cart passes the central chimneys of the coal-fired NTPC Ltd. Dadri Power Plant in Gautam Budh Nagar district, Uttar Pradesh, India, on Thursday, Oct. 7, 2021.

👉👉China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Most of India's coal-fired power plants have critically low levels of coal inventory at a time when the economy is picking up and fueling electricity demand.
Coal accounts for around 70% of India's electricity generation.
A potential power crisis would likely have an immediate impact on India's nascent economic recovery which is being led by industrial activity instead of services.

👉👉Government data showed that as of Oct. 6, 80% of India's 135 coal-powered plants had less than 8 days of supplies left — more than half of those had stocks worth two days or fewer.
By comparison, over the last four years, the average coal inventory that power plants had was around 18 days worth of supply, according to Hetal Gandhi, director of research at ratings firm CRISIL, a subsidiary of S&P Global.

👉👉hydrogen stock can jump more than 30%
UBS says the energy transition needs $160 trillion of investment – and picks new stocks to cash in
Green hydrogen.

👉👉the stock levels going up to 8 to 10 days again by December. they will not go up anywhere close to 18 days even by March. Close monitoring will be needed for the next six months."
State-run Coal India, which accounts for over 80% of India's coal output, reportedly said last month it would ramp up supplies to utilities to address the coal shortage in power plants.

✍✍How did we get here?

A combination of supply factors and falling coal imports led to the current crisis, commentators told CNBC.
India saw a spike in power demand between April and August. It came as the economy regained momentum following a devastating second wave of Covid-19.
The economic recovery was sharper than what many had anticipated.

Thermal power companies have had lean coal inventories and did not anticipate the spike in power demand this year, Gandhi explained.
Other sources of electricity generation — such as hydropower, gas and nuclear — also declined.
👉👉an unevenly distributed monsoon season was one of the factors. Less rainfall in some areas adversely affected the production of hydropower, or water power.
Some other factors included a sharp increase in gas prices as well as maintenance shutdowns at nuclear power plants, she said. All of that led to an increase in coal-fired power generation.
Logistical issues due to the monsoon season also constrained coal supply, despite there being enough pithead stocks available at Coal India, Sandeep Kalia, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told CNBC. 
A pithead refers to the top of a mineshaft where most of the mined coal is kept before being transported to power companies. Rainy season typically makes that transportation more difficult as many routes tend to flood.

✍✍Why is coal supply running out?

India is the world's third-largest coal importer despite having a large coal reserve. However, a widening gap between soaring international coal prices and domestic coal prices saw imports decline sharply in recent months.
As supply fell, demand also rose.
Coal imports by power plants fell 45% in July and August compared to the same period last year while India's non-power sectors grew more dependent on domestic coal. Non-power industries such as aluminum, steel, cement and paper typically burn large quantities of coal to produce heat.
Decline in electricity generation by coastal power plants, which rely on imported coal, added more pressure on domestic coal-based power plants to ramp up output.

Even then, coal imports were hamstrung by supply disruptions due to the pandemic and logistics issues

For example, transportation costs are rising due to a higher demand for shipping and congestions at ports as the world economy slowly recovers from the pandemic.
India's domestic coal is also of a lower heating value — which means more of it is needed to substitute imported coal, thus adding further pressure on domestic power plants, she said.
Coal prices in India are mostly decided by the state-owned Coal India. So when international prices increase, domestic prices do not rise as substantially since it would affect power prices and inflation — utility companies are unable to pass on higher costs to most consumers.
Since power is subsidized for most farmers and many households in India, the burden of higher coal prices will mainly fall on industrial consumers who account for only 25% to 30% of power consumption.
"Whenever imported prices go up substantially, the incentive for domestic manufacturers to import coal and produce power is on the lower side," .

✍✍What could happen next?

The energy supply crunch could last as long as six months,.
With the festive season in India starting this month, where consumption tends to reach its peak, power demand could rise further — and the situation could be exacerbated if global demand for Indian exports increase substantially. For its part, Coal India has reportedly ramped up supplies to try and offset some of the shortage.

"If demand goes up substantially, I don't know what could be the steps, but you could look at steps like they may bring about curb on exports in sectors which are power-intensive in nature," said Gandhi.
Indian authorities sought to allay fears of a supply crunch.
The Ministry of Coal said Sunday that the country has sufficient coal to meet power plant demands and that fears of disruption in power supply are "unfounded" and "erroneous."
"The coal available at the power plants is a rolling stock which gets replenished by the supplies from the coal companies on a daily basis," the ministry said. "Therefore, any fear of coal stocks depleting at the power plant end is erroneous. In fact this year, domestic coal supply has substituted imports by a substantial measure."
"Given India's massive dependence on thermal power, we might see domestic coal suppliers diverting their supply to the thermal power plants away from industries like steel, cement etc," . "Any which way, there will be a short-term dent in activities."
"There is a likelihood of electricity prices rising as higher priced coals would have to be imported, potentially fueling inflationary pressure.