Quarterly Economic Survey of Singapore Q1 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, the Singapore economy grew by 6.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
In February, MTI upgraded Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 to “2.0 to 4.0 per cent”, from “1.0 to 3.0 per cent”. The upgrade came on the back of the strong growth momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, largely due to the AI investment boom which was expected to be sustained into 2026. At the same time, expansionary fiscal policies in major economies and accommodative global financial conditions were expected to support global growth.
In the first quarter of 2026, the Singapore economy grew by 6.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
In February, MTI upgraded Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 to “2.0 to 4.0 per cent”, from “1.0 to 3.0 per cent”. The upgrade came on the back of the strong growth momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, largely due to the AI investment boom which was expected to be sustained into 2026. At the same time, expansionary fiscal policies in major economies and accommodative global financial conditions were expected to support global growth.
Quarterly Economic Survey of Singapore Q1 2026
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Since then, the global economic outlook has deteriorated with the onset of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Disruptions to the supply of energy and other key inputs due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to increased energy and other input costs. In turn, this has driven up inflationary pressures and is expected to weigh on global economic activity for the rest of the year. On the other hand, AI-related demand has remained robust and should continue to support the growth of regional economies throughout the year.
Downside risks to the global economy have also risen significantly since February. These include a prolonged disruption to the global supply of energy and other inputs due to the conflict in the Middle East, a re-escalation in US tariff actions and a sudden pullback in global AI-related capital spending.
On balance, taking into account the latest global and domestic economic developments, MTI’s assessment is that the outlook for the Singapore economy in 2026 has weakened since February. However, in view of the better-than-expected performance of the Singapore economy in the first quarter, Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 is maintained at “2.0 to 4.0 per cent”. Nonetheless, downside risks to Singapore’s economic outlook have risen significantly and MTI will continue to monitor developments closely and adjust the GDP growth forecast over the course of the year if necessary.
Read the full report here: https://www.mti.gov.sg/resources/economic-survey-of-singapore/economic-survey-of-singapore-and-feature-articles/economic-survey-of-singapore-first-quarter-2026/
<continued>
Since then, the global economic outlook has deteriorated with the onset of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Disruptions to the supply of energy and other key inputs due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have led to increased energy and other input costs. In turn, this has driven up inflationary pressures and is expected to weigh on global economic activity for the rest of the year. On the other hand, AI-related demand has remained robust and should continue to support the growth of regional economies throughout the year.
Downside risks to the global economy have also risen significantly since February. These include a prolonged disruption to the global supply of energy and other inputs due to the conflict in the Middle East, a re-escalation in US tariff actions and a sudden pullback in global AI-related capital spending.
On balance, taking into account the latest global and domestic economic developments, MTI’s assessment is that the outlook for the Singapore economy in 2026 has weakened since February. However, in view of the better-than-expected performance of the Singapore economy in the first quarter, Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 is maintained at “2.0 to 4.0 per cent”. Nonetheless, downside risks to Singapore’s economic outlook have risen significantly and MTI will continue to monitor developments closely and adjust the GDP growth forecast over the course of the year if necessary.
Read the full report here: https://www.mti.gov.sg/resources/economic-survey-of-singapore/economic-survey-of-singapore-and-feature-articles/economic-survey-of-singapore-first-quarter-2026/
Ministry of Trade and Industry
Economic Survey of Singapore First Quarter 2026
Quarterly Economic Survey of Singapore Q2 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, the Singapore economy grew by 5.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
In May, MTI maintained Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2026 at "2.0 to 4.0 per cent", based on the expectation that strong global AI-related demand would cushion the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on the global economy. Since then, the global AI investment boom has been stronger than expected, which has provided significant tailwinds to AI-related production and exports globally. For the rest of the year, a further surge in AI-related capital spending is expected to lift the growth prospects of economies plugged into the global technology value chain.
In the second quarter of 2026, the Singapore economy grew by 5.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
In May, MTI maintained Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2026 at "2.0 to 4.0 per cent", based on the expectation that strong global AI-related demand would cushion the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on the global economy. Since then, the global AI investment boom has been stronger than expected, which has provided significant tailwinds to AI-related production and exports globally. For the rest of the year, a further surge in AI-related capital spending is expected to lift the growth prospects of economies plugged into the global technology value chain.
Quarterly Economic Survey of Singapore Q2 2026
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The economic impact of the Middle East conflict has also been less severe than initially feared. Nonetheless, continuing tensions in the region, alongside lower levels of global oil inventories, are expected to keep the prices of energy and other key inputs elevated in the second half of the year. This will exert upward pressure on global inflation and weigh on global economic activity.
Downside risks in the global economy remain, including a further escalation of the Middle East conflict, additional US tariff actions, and sudden risk-off sentiments in financial markets regarding global AI-related capital spending.
On balance, considering the better-than-expected performance of the Singapore economy in the first half of the year, as well as the latest global and domestic economic outlook, MTI has upgraded Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to "4.5 to 5.5 per cent", from "2.0 to 4.0 per cent".
Read the full report here: https://www.mti.gov.sg/resources/economic-survey-of-singapore/economic-survey-of-singapore-and-feature-articles/economic-survey-of-singapore-second-quarter-2026/
<continued>
The economic impact of the Middle East conflict has also been less severe than initially feared. Nonetheless, continuing tensions in the region, alongside lower levels of global oil inventories, are expected to keep the prices of energy and other key inputs elevated in the second half of the year. This will exert upward pressure on global inflation and weigh on global economic activity.
Downside risks in the global economy remain, including a further escalation of the Middle East conflict, additional US tariff actions, and sudden risk-off sentiments in financial markets regarding global AI-related capital spending.
On balance, considering the better-than-expected performance of the Singapore economy in the first half of the year, as well as the latest global and domestic economic outlook, MTI has upgraded Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to "4.5 to 5.5 per cent", from "2.0 to 4.0 per cent".
Read the full report here: https://www.mti.gov.sg/resources/economic-survey-of-singapore/economic-survey-of-singapore-and-feature-articles/economic-survey-of-singapore-second-quarter-2026/
Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry
Economic Survey of Singapore Second Quarter 2026
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From 1 October 2026, the Ministry of Trade and Industry has been renamed as the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI).
The new name reflects the growing importance of energy to Singapore’s economy and its critical role in advancing our climate goals and strengthening our national resilience.
As METI, we will continue to work closely with all Singaporeans and businesses to build a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy future, while creating new opportunities and powering Singapore’s next phase of growth.
Do continue to follow METI’s social media channels for the latest updates:
👉 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/METISingapore
👉 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/meti.sg/
👉 LinkedIn: https://sg.linkedin.com/company/metisingapore
👉 X: https://x.com/meti_sg
👉YouTube: https://youtube.com/@metisingapore
From 1 October 2026, the Ministry of Trade and Industry has been renamed as the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI).
The new name reflects the growing importance of energy to Singapore’s economy and its critical role in advancing our climate goals and strengthening our national resilience.
As METI, we will continue to work closely with all Singaporeans and businesses to build a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy future, while creating new opportunities and powering Singapore’s next phase of growth.
Do continue to follow METI’s social media channels for the latest updates:
👉 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/METISingapore
👉 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/meti.sg/
👉 LinkedIn: https://sg.linkedin.com/company/metisingapore
👉 X: https://x.com/meti_sg
👉YouTube: https://youtube.com/@metisingapore