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NFP & EUR/USD — the key Forex event this Friday

On October 2 at 12:30 UTC, the US will release its latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the monthly employment report that can trigger significant volatility in Forex, especially in EUR/USD.

In August, the US economy added 162K jobs. For the September report, the market expects employment growth to slow.

NFP:
Previous: 162K
Forecast: around 98K

For traders, the actual NFP number is only part of the picture. The market will focus on how far the result deviates from the forecast, along with the unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions to previous data.

Basic EUR/USD reaction scenario:

Actual below forecast → weaker US labor data → USD could weaken → EUR/USD could rise.

Actual above forecast → stronger US labor data → USD could strengthen → EUR/USD could fall.

This is the basic scenario. The actual market reaction will depend on the full report and expectations for future Fed policy.

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