QCP Market Colour, 11 September 2026
Bitcoin has retraced from $82,000 highs to trade near $77,000, giving back the entire rally as long-dated Treasury yields have risen sharply. Treasury Secretary Bessent's escalating intervention efforts have failed to stem the move. After tripling Wednesday's buyback operation to $6 billion, Thursday's auction took only $5.19 billion on offer—traders read it as Treasury stepping back. The 10-year cleared at 4.83%, the highest since 2007, while the 30-year broke through 5.3%.
The composition of the yield move is the worst for Bitcoin: a 5% risk-free rate driven by policy tightening, not growth. It undercuts the Treasury liquidity narrative that carried BTC from $63,000 to $82,000. Institutional flows have turned sharply, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording three straight days of outflows—the first sustained redemption since August's $3.8 billion streak.
Tonight's CPI at 8:30pm SGT is binary: Fed Governor Waller said his vote hinges on this print. Consensus expects 0.2% core. Bitcoin's critical support sits at $76,300–$76,500, tested repeatedly this week. One constructive signal: the 50-day just crossed above the 200-day near $70,000–$71,000, the first golden cross of this cycle. Sequencing matters: yield spike hurts first, liquidity helps later.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
Bitcoin has retraced from $82,000 highs to trade near $77,000, giving back the entire rally as long-dated Treasury yields have risen sharply. Treasury Secretary Bessent's escalating intervention efforts have failed to stem the move. After tripling Wednesday's buyback operation to $6 billion, Thursday's auction took only $5.19 billion on offer—traders read it as Treasury stepping back. The 10-year cleared at 4.83%, the highest since 2007, while the 30-year broke through 5.3%.
The composition of the yield move is the worst for Bitcoin: a 5% risk-free rate driven by policy tightening, not growth. It undercuts the Treasury liquidity narrative that carried BTC from $63,000 to $82,000. Institutional flows have turned sharply, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording three straight days of outflows—the first sustained redemption since August's $3.8 billion streak.
Tonight's CPI at 8:30pm SGT is binary: Fed Governor Waller said his vote hinges on this print. Consensus expects 0.2% core. Bitcoin's critical support sits at $76,300–$76,500, tested repeatedly this week. One constructive signal: the 50-day just crossed above the 200-day near $70,000–$71,000, the first golden cross of this cycle. Sequencing matters: yield spike hurts first, liquidity helps later.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP September 11, 2026
Betting Against the House Bitcoin heads into tonight’s CPI print on the back foot. Having tagged $82,000 last Thursday, spot has given back the entire move and sits near $77,000, down roughly 2% on both the week and the month. Yesterday’s dip to $76,500 was…
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QCP Market Colour, 14 September 2026
August CPI showed 0.4% headline month-on-month and 0.3% core month-on-month, above the 0.2% consensus. Bitcoin fell to $76,700 on the release before recovering to $77,600, suggesting markets have largely absorbed the 25 basis point hike scenario. The real question is how the Fed frames the move and what it signals about future tightening.
Institutional flows diverged: Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows over the holiday week, though Friday's redemptions slowed significantly. Ethereum ETFs attracted inflows including $216.4 million Friday, pointing to selective demand despite softer conditions. Volatility remains subdued with the curve upward-sloping and positioning hedged ahead of the decision.
This week's FOMC meeting is critical. The question is whether the Committee frames this hike as insurance against inflation or signals a longer tightening cycle. Restrained guidance and stable long-end yields support crypto; higher rate projections tighten conditions across assets. Oil above $107 following a Saudi pipeline disruption adds pressure—prolonged energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive even as growth slows. Bitcoin faces resistance at $80–82k with support at $75–76k. The technical setup is reasonable; conviction depends on Wednesday's Fed guidance.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
August CPI showed 0.4% headline month-on-month and 0.3% core month-on-month, above the 0.2% consensus. Bitcoin fell to $76,700 on the release before recovering to $77,600, suggesting markets have largely absorbed the 25 basis point hike scenario. The real question is how the Fed frames the move and what it signals about future tightening.
Institutional flows diverged: Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows over the holiday week, though Friday's redemptions slowed significantly. Ethereum ETFs attracted inflows including $216.4 million Friday, pointing to selective demand despite softer conditions. Volatility remains subdued with the curve upward-sloping and positioning hedged ahead of the decision.
This week's FOMC meeting is critical. The question is whether the Committee frames this hike as insurance against inflation or signals a longer tightening cycle. Restrained guidance and stable long-end yields support crypto; higher rate projections tighten conditions across assets. Oil above $107 following a Saudi pipeline disruption adds pressure—prolonged energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive even as growth slows. Bitcoin faces resistance at $80–82k with support at $75–76k. The technical setup is reasonable; conviction depends on Wednesday's Fed guidance.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP September 14, 2026
The Fed’s Inflation and Credibility Test August CPI data arrived with mixed signals ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, leaving the annual inflation rate unchanged at 3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI…
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QCP Market Colour, 18 September 2026
Bitcoin took two direct hits inside 48 hours and came out bid. The CLARITY Act's 49–50 cloture failure on Tuesday pushed BTC to a monthly low near $75,900, the Fed hiked the following afternoon, and spot recovered to $77,000 before settling around $76,500.
The flows are the more interesting part. Spot ETFs bled $450m on the 15th and $296m on the 16th, IBIT shedding $144m of it. Then on the 17th the tape turned: $159m of net inflows with IBIT taking $184m. The outflows bottomed on the hike itself, and the day after it the largest fund was a buyer.
The Fed's 25bp was priced above 90%, so Warsh was the story. Inflation remains "too high", conditions are not "restrictive", and he framed the move as "removing a dose of policy accommodation" before declining to give any forward guidance. The committee also raised its longer-run neutral estimate to 3.25% from 3.06%, which matters more for ten-year fair value than the near-term path. Yields bear-flattened Wednesday then fell across the curve Thursday, the long end rallying on the resolve. A hike today may mean fewer hikes tomorrow.
Crude retreated three sessions on Saudi restart guidance, though independent analysts see weeks rather than days and WTI is still up 18% on the month. This is a risk premium unwinding, not supply returning. The BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the yen weakened anyway. And the SEC used exemptive authority to clear the path for tokenized securities venues, five years of relief in place of the legislation Congress could not pass.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
Bitcoin took two direct hits inside 48 hours and came out bid. The CLARITY Act's 49–50 cloture failure on Tuesday pushed BTC to a monthly low near $75,900, the Fed hiked the following afternoon, and spot recovered to $77,000 before settling around $76,500.
The flows are the more interesting part. Spot ETFs bled $450m on the 15th and $296m on the 16th, IBIT shedding $144m of it. Then on the 17th the tape turned: $159m of net inflows with IBIT taking $184m. The outflows bottomed on the hike itself, and the day after it the largest fund was a buyer.
The Fed's 25bp was priced above 90%, so Warsh was the story. Inflation remains "too high", conditions are not "restrictive", and he framed the move as "removing a dose of policy accommodation" before declining to give any forward guidance. The committee also raised its longer-run neutral estimate to 3.25% from 3.06%, which matters more for ten-year fair value than the near-term path. Yields bear-flattened Wednesday then fell across the curve Thursday, the long end rallying on the resolve. A hike today may mean fewer hikes tomorrow.
Crude retreated three sessions on Saudi restart guidance, though independent analysts see weeks rather than days and WTI is still up 18% on the month. This is a risk premium unwinding, not supply returning. The BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the yen weakened anyway. And the SEC used exemptive authority to clear the path for tokenized securities venues, five years of relief in place of the legislation Congress could not pass.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP September 18, 2026
Two Shocks, One Standing Bid Bitcoin absorbed two policy shocks within 48 hours. The Senate’s failed CLARITY Act cloture vote on Tuesday pushed Bitcoin 4% lower to $75,900. The Fed’s 25bp rate increase the following afternoon saw spot recover to $77,000,…
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QCP Market Colour, 21 September 2026
Bitcoin is arming up for a breakout. It closed the week above its 50-week moving average, up 29% over the past 35 days, with the tide turning as the traditional war trade loses its grip despite continued U.S.-Iran tensions.
The legislative backdrop is doing some of the work. The American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) has cleared the House Financial Services Committee, one step from a full House vote, and would establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve if passed. Timing is now the variable: prediction markets price roughly a 90% chance of Democrats taking the House in the midterms, and with this Congress ending on 2 January 2027, a floor vote before then would materially improve ARMA's near-term path.
The options tape is loaded. Front-end vols remain elevated into a seasonally strong month, and around 43% of BTC open interest sits in Friday's quarterly expiry, with the 85k/90k/95k/100k strikes from August's large 25SEP26 Call Condor among the biggest concentrations. A break of the 83k resistance level could open the door toward 90k and bring those strikes into play.
The driver is shifting from the war trade to dollar liquidity and risk appetite, with front-end funding conditions mattering more for crypto. It's showing up in flows: spot ETFs have flipped from outflows back into inflows, with more than $590m of net inflows across Thursday and Friday alone.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
Bitcoin is arming up for a breakout. It closed the week above its 50-week moving average, up 29% over the past 35 days, with the tide turning as the traditional war trade loses its grip despite continued U.S.-Iran tensions.
The legislative backdrop is doing some of the work. The American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) has cleared the House Financial Services Committee, one step from a full House vote, and would establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve if passed. Timing is now the variable: prediction markets price roughly a 90% chance of Democrats taking the House in the midterms, and with this Congress ending on 2 January 2027, a floor vote before then would materially improve ARMA's near-term path.
The options tape is loaded. Front-end vols remain elevated into a seasonally strong month, and around 43% of BTC open interest sits in Friday's quarterly expiry, with the 85k/90k/95k/100k strikes from August's large 25SEP26 Call Condor among the biggest concentrations. A break of the 83k resistance level could open the door toward 90k and bring those strikes into play.
The driver is shifting from the war trade to dollar liquidity and risk appetite, with front-end funding conditions mattering more for crypto. It's showing up in flows: spot ETFs have flipped from outflows back into inflows, with more than $590m of net inflows across Thursday and Friday alone.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP September 21, 2026
BTC Arms Up for a Breakout Crypto remains relatively well bid following an eventful week, with momentum potentially supported by progress on the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA). The bill has advanced through the U.S. House Committee on Financial…
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Macro Themes - 24 September 2026.pdf
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QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026
Fed's September hike locked in the hiking cycle. Six of seven voting speakers hawkish; Kashkari, Musalem, Goolsbee all emphasize inflation is broad and demand-side pressure is real. Policy rate now 3.75%-4.00%. Hike camp firm; restrictive bias confirmed.
BOJ followed suit with rate hike from 1.00%, next hike priced for Q4. JPY flips to net long in leveraged funds; GBP longs unwinding. Dollar support reduced as central banks tighten in unison.
Hormuz tanker crossings at zero versus 29-vessel average. Geopolitical tension spiked then collapsed; Trump signalled openness to Iran talks. Brent pulled back to ~$101/bbl. Hormuz remains a chokepoint with Bab El Mandeb also at multi-decade lows.
Credit repricing sharply: Oracle CDS above 100bps. BTC ETF flows near 99th percentile, Q4 seasonality bid. Strategy resumed accumulation (950 BTC for $75.7m). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption; Clarity Act stalled.
With Fed and BOJ hiking lockstep, is macro regime fully tightened?
Fed's September hike locked in the hiking cycle. Six of seven voting speakers hawkish; Kashkari, Musalem, Goolsbee all emphasize inflation is broad and demand-side pressure is real. Policy rate now 3.75%-4.00%. Hike camp firm; restrictive bias confirmed.
BOJ followed suit with rate hike from 1.00%, next hike priced for Q4. JPY flips to net long in leveraged funds; GBP longs unwinding. Dollar support reduced as central banks tighten in unison.
Hormuz tanker crossings at zero versus 29-vessel average. Geopolitical tension spiked then collapsed; Trump signalled openness to Iran talks. Brent pulled back to ~$101/bbl. Hormuz remains a chokepoint with Bab El Mandeb also at multi-decade lows.
Credit repricing sharply: Oracle CDS above 100bps. BTC ETF flows near 99th percentile, Q4 seasonality bid. Strategy resumed accumulation (950 BTC for $75.7m). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption; Clarity Act stalled.
With Fed and BOJ hiking lockstep, is macro regime fully tightened?
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QCP Market Colour, 28 September 2026
Global markets opened Monday under multi-asset pressure as investors reduced risk exposure across all liquid asset classes. The Nasdaq-100 fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in premarket, gold declined from $4,260 to $4,147, and Bitcoin dropped from $84,500 to $82,800—simultaneously. The US Dollar Index also traded lower, defying typical flight-to-safety flows. This pattern reflects broad-based deleveraging rather than safe-haven repositioning.
The primary driver was geopolitical: the US rejected proposed ceasefire conditions for the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, reigniting concerns about potential prolonged energy supply disruption and triggering sharp increases in Brent crude prices. Elevated energy costs carry direct implications for consumer purchasing power during this economically sensitive period.
This week carries a heavily concentrated US macroeconomic calendar. The PCE price index and Nonfarm Payrolls report are critical releases following recent Fed rate increases. Markets remain hypersensitive to data that could inform expectations on additional monetary policy adjustments. In crypto options, front-end implied volatilities remain elevated as dealers price downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows show hesitation amid the broader liquidation. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces pressure from the convergence of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risk. Critical support levels are in focus.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
Global markets opened Monday under multi-asset pressure as investors reduced risk exposure across all liquid asset classes. The Nasdaq-100 fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in premarket, gold declined from $4,260 to $4,147, and Bitcoin dropped from $84,500 to $82,800—simultaneously. The US Dollar Index also traded lower, defying typical flight-to-safety flows. This pattern reflects broad-based deleveraging rather than safe-haven repositioning.
The primary driver was geopolitical: the US rejected proposed ceasefire conditions for the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, reigniting concerns about potential prolonged energy supply disruption and triggering sharp increases in Brent crude prices. Elevated energy costs carry direct implications for consumer purchasing power during this economically sensitive period.
This week carries a heavily concentrated US macroeconomic calendar. The PCE price index and Nonfarm Payrolls report are critical releases following recent Fed rate increases. Markets remain hypersensitive to data that could inform expectations on additional monetary policy adjustments. In crypto options, front-end implied volatilities remain elevated as dealers price downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows show hesitation amid the broader liquidation. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces pressure from the convergence of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risk. Critical support levels are in focus.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP September 28, 2026
Macro Friction Sparks a Cross-Asset Flush Global markets opened the week under multi-asset pressure as investors reduced gross risk exposure across liquid asset classes. The Nasdaq-100 declined from 744.45 to 737.76 in premarket trading, gold fell from $4…
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Macro Themes - 1 October 2026.pdf
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QCP Macro Themes, 1 October 2026
Direct US-Iran contact confirmed but offers rejected. Iran pitched 7-day plan but disagreement over urgency remains. Hormuz at 2 crossings versus 32 average; Bab El Mandeb disrupted. SPR thinnest since 1982.
US activity re-accelerating. PMI composite hit 58.4 (strongest since Jul 2021). Input costs near 4-year low. Stronger growth plus sticky costs driving duration demand. 10Y above 5%, up 53bps.
Trump-Xi summit extended trade truce to Jan 10 (shorter than 3–6 months floated). Iran/N.Korea dialogue advanced, no agreements. US-China risk moderated.
AI capex repricing credit: Oracle free cash flow −$5.4bn despite 30% revenue growth; capex ~$420bn in 2027. Spreads widening. OpenAI shelved finished model (pacing confirmed). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption. Strategy resumed BTC accumulation ($142.7m).
Does duration demand ease, or does repricing fuel further term premium?
Direct US-Iran contact confirmed but offers rejected. Iran pitched 7-day plan but disagreement over urgency remains. Hormuz at 2 crossings versus 32 average; Bab El Mandeb disrupted. SPR thinnest since 1982.
US activity re-accelerating. PMI composite hit 58.4 (strongest since Jul 2021). Input costs near 4-year low. Stronger growth plus sticky costs driving duration demand. 10Y above 5%, up 53bps.
Trump-Xi summit extended trade truce to Jan 10 (shorter than 3–6 months floated). Iran/N.Korea dialogue advanced, no agreements. US-China risk moderated.
AI capex repricing credit: Oracle free cash flow −$5.4bn despite 30% revenue growth; capex ~$420bn in 2027. Spreads widening. OpenAI shelved finished model (pacing confirmed). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption. Strategy resumed BTC accumulation ($142.7m).
Does duration demand ease, or does repricing fuel further term premium?
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QCP Market Colour, 2 October 2026
Bitcoin broke its range to $86,913—highest since September 23—up 14.6% from the September 15 low. But the rally's backdrop is diverging: the 30-year Treasury hit 5.62%, the 10-year briefly 5.29%, and gold had its worst month of the year. Real rates rose 44bp through September while breakevens barely moved. This wasn't an inflation shock—stronger growth expectations, heavy Treasury supply, weak auctions, and price-sensitive buyers forced market clearing at higher real yields.
Gold obeyed the real-rate signal and fell 8.5%. Bitcoin rallied 12%. This divergence suggests a concentrated flow trade in an asset with a new regulatory catalyst and favorable technicals. Spot ETFs took $3.5bn in August and $2.6bn in September after a brutal first half. The SEC's September 17 exemption provided the first genuine regulatory catalyst since the CLARITY Act failed. But market-structure legislation is now deferred to 2027—support is executive, not legislative.
Options positioning shows clients rolling October $90,000 calls into November, the month containing midterms, Treasury refunding, and the December Fed meeting. The market is positioning to own the post-election period. Tonight's payroll report is the critical test. Support at $82,500 held three times this week; resistance at $87,400 gates $90,000.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
Bitcoin broke its range to $86,913—highest since September 23—up 14.6% from the September 15 low. But the rally's backdrop is diverging: the 30-year Treasury hit 5.62%, the 10-year briefly 5.29%, and gold had its worst month of the year. Real rates rose 44bp through September while breakevens barely moved. This wasn't an inflation shock—stronger growth expectations, heavy Treasury supply, weak auctions, and price-sensitive buyers forced market clearing at higher real yields.
Gold obeyed the real-rate signal and fell 8.5%. Bitcoin rallied 12%. This divergence suggests a concentrated flow trade in an asset with a new regulatory catalyst and favorable technicals. Spot ETFs took $3.5bn in August and $2.6bn in September after a brutal first half. The SEC's September 17 exemption provided the first genuine regulatory catalyst since the CLARITY Act failed. But market-structure legislation is now deferred to 2027—support is executive, not legislative.
Options positioning shows clients rolling October $90,000 calls into November, the month containing midterms, Treasury refunding, and the December Fed meeting. The market is positioning to own the post-election period. Tonight's payroll report is the critical test. Support at $82,500 held three times this week; resistance at $87,400 gates $90,000.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP October 2, 2026
Rolling Past the Election Bitcoin has broken its consolidation range following a week of trading between $82,500 and $85,700. Spot Bitcoin pushed to $86,913—its highest print since September 23—and currently trades near $85,900. This move represents a 14.6%…
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The QCP Digital Assets Outlook: Q4 report is out.
What looks like calm is really a stalemate. Rates, CLARITY delays and Middle East risk weigh on price, while ETF demand and risk appetite keep absorbing the pressure. All it takes is one side to tire for price to break out.
Our Q4 read: growth slowing without contracting, inflation re-accelerated, Fed tightening again not pausing. BTC base case is range-bound $80K–$90K.
Watch four things: Fed pricing, oil escalation risk, ETF/stablecoin liquidity breadth, and AI capex rotation.
Get the full outlook here: https://campaign.qcpgroup.com/q4-digital-market-report
What looks like calm is really a stalemate. Rates, CLARITY delays and Middle East risk weigh on price, while ETF demand and risk appetite keep absorbing the pressure. All it takes is one side to tire for price to break out.
Our Q4 read: growth slowing without contracting, inflation re-accelerated, Fed tightening again not pausing. BTC base case is range-bound $80K–$90K.
Watch four things: Fed pricing, oil escalation risk, ETF/stablecoin liquidity breadth, and AI capex rotation.
Get the full outlook here: https://campaign.qcpgroup.com/q4-digital-market-report
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QCP Market Colour, 5 October 2026
The macro narrative flipped completely in three weeks: from "hike in October" to "October hike priced out, Fed on hold." September payrolls collapsed to just 29k versus 84k expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%; wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year (lowest since May 2021). The three-month payroll average dropped to 50.7k—roughly one-third the pace a year ago. This dovish labour print supports an October Fed pause, yet the 10-year Treasury sits stubbornly at 5.25% as supply and term-premium dynamics override growth signals. October hike odds fell to 22%.
Bitcoin recovered to $86,700 after Friday's $87,100 rejection, suggesting dip demand remains present. Weekend liquidations were light at $62.7m with shorts accounting for 68%. Acceptance above $87,200 remains necessary to confirm the next leg. Ethereum holds $2,725 within the $2,650-$2,800 range; the setup remains cautiously constructive.
FOMC Minutes Wednesday is the major catalyst—markets parsing whether the hawkish dissents reflected conviction or compromise. TOKEN2049 Singapore Thu-Fri may introduce volatility. Watch October 14 CPI as the first test of disinflation reassertance.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
The macro narrative flipped completely in three weeks: from "hike in October" to "October hike priced out, Fed on hold." September payrolls collapsed to just 29k versus 84k expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%; wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year (lowest since May 2021). The three-month payroll average dropped to 50.7k—roughly one-third the pace a year ago. This dovish labour print supports an October Fed pause, yet the 10-year Treasury sits stubbornly at 5.25% as supply and term-premium dynamics override growth signals. October hike odds fell to 22%.
Bitcoin recovered to $86,700 after Friday's $87,100 rejection, suggesting dip demand remains present. Weekend liquidations were light at $62.7m with shorts accounting for 68%. Acceptance above $87,200 remains necessary to confirm the next leg. Ethereum holds $2,725 within the $2,650-$2,800 range; the setup remains cautiously constructive.
FOMC Minutes Wednesday is the major catalyst—markets parsing whether the hawkish dissents reflected conviction or compromise. TOKEN2049 Singapore Thu-Fri may introduce volatility. Watch October 14 CPI as the first test of disinflation reassertance.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
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Macro Themes - 8 October 2026.pdf
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QCP Macro Themes, 8 October 2026
US-Iran talks deadlocked on Hormuz sequencing. Washington shifted to pressure—pulling Iran's delegation, adding sanctions—while leaving Qatar's channel open. Hormuz crossings at 3 vessels versus 26 average; SPR down 28% since May.
Energy freight surging. West Africa-China crude freight tripled to $27.22/bbl versus $7.37 YTD avg (+319%). Crude exports normalised but refined-product flows lag 33%. Tighter tanker availability points to structurally higher delivered costs.
Sterling weakness is a dollar story. GBP/USD fell to 1.3193 but EUR/GBP holding 0.8481—euro headwinds cushioning sterling. Oracle CDS at 247bps, nearly 2x peers. AI-capex repricing widening.
JPY positioning shifted: leveraged funds net short, asset managers building longs. Carry cushion halved to 2.63pp. Anthropic IPO slipped to mid-Nov (~$2tn). Strategy slowed BTC buying; STRC buybacks prioritised. ETF flows cool. Clarity Act stalled.
Does geopolitical premium fuel unwinds or is positioning fragile enough?
US-Iran talks deadlocked on Hormuz sequencing. Washington shifted to pressure—pulling Iran's delegation, adding sanctions—while leaving Qatar's channel open. Hormuz crossings at 3 vessels versus 26 average; SPR down 28% since May.
Energy freight surging. West Africa-China crude freight tripled to $27.22/bbl versus $7.37 YTD avg (+319%). Crude exports normalised but refined-product flows lag 33%. Tighter tanker availability points to structurally higher delivered costs.
Sterling weakness is a dollar story. GBP/USD fell to 1.3193 but EUR/GBP holding 0.8481—euro headwinds cushioning sterling. Oracle CDS at 247bps, nearly 2x peers. AI-capex repricing widening.
JPY positioning shifted: leveraged funds net short, asset managers building longs. Carry cushion halved to 2.63pp. Anthropic IPO slipped to mid-Nov (~$2tn). Strategy slowed BTC buying; STRC buybacks prioritised. ETF flows cool. Clarity Act stalled.
Does geopolitical premium fuel unwinds or is positioning fragile enough?
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QCP Market Colour, 12 October 2026
A year on from crypto's largest single-day liquidation, 10/10, BTC looks to be on firmer footing. The feared repeat washout hasn't materialised, with price holding up despite jitters over sizeable US government BTC transfers and reports of a Ledger hack over the weekend.
BTC keeps failing at $87k but has held its range, with support around $80k. Implied vol is firm and risk reversals show a less pronounced premium for puts than usual: less defensive positioning, but a breakout is still priced. A clean move above $87k would bring $94k into focus. October has historically been a strong month for crypto (last year the notable exception), and options pricing hints at a return to the pattern.
The catalysts land this week: CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and Warsh at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings on Friday, where any echo of his hawkish Jackson Hole messaging could weigh on risk. Markets price roughly a 17% chance of an October hike, so a hold is the base case, but this week's data could test it. Targeted upside interest shows up in a sizeable long 30 Oct $90k/$95k/$100k Call Butterfly, the largest end-October open interest concentration.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
A year on from crypto's largest single-day liquidation, 10/10, BTC looks to be on firmer footing. The feared repeat washout hasn't materialised, with price holding up despite jitters over sizeable US government BTC transfers and reports of a Ledger hack over the weekend.
BTC keeps failing at $87k but has held its range, with support around $80k. Implied vol is firm and risk reversals show a less pronounced premium for puts than usual: less defensive positioning, but a breakout is still priced. A clean move above $87k would bring $94k into focus. October has historically been a strong month for crypto (last year the notable exception), and options pricing hints at a return to the pattern.
The catalysts land this week: CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and Warsh at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings on Friday, where any echo of his hawkish Jackson Hole messaging could weigh on risk. Markets price roughly a 17% chance of an October hike, so a hold is the base case, but this week's data could test it. Targeted upside interest shows up in a sizeable long 30 Oct $90k/$95k/$100k Call Butterfly, the largest end-October open interest concentration.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP October 12, 2026
10/10 Hindsight, October Upside? A year on from crypto’s largest single-day liquidation event, BTC appears to be on firmer footing. The feared 10/10 encore hasn’t materialized, with price holding up despite fresh jitters over sizeable US government BTC transfers…
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Macro Themes, 15 October 2026.pdf
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QCP Macro Themes, 15 October 2026
Escalation widened as Houthis struck Riyadh airport (Oct 10–11), with Iran reviewing the US response via Qatar. Hormuz collapsed to 1 crossing (avg 26) and the SPR is down 30.5% YoY to 283.0m barrels—critical supply squeeze.
Democrats hold 62–63% odds to sweep Congress 3 November; the Senate is the swing race. A full sweep raises gridlock risk for Trump. France's fiscal credibility under pressure: OAT-Bund 152bp, debt 119% GDP, growth 0.4%.
Credit repricing accelerating. Oracle CDS 251.9bps, nearly 2x AVGO (132.6bps). OpenAI's ARR gap ($50B vs $70B target) signals tensions as Q3 earnings peak 26 Oct. BTC momentum fading as STRC buybacks ($192.4m) outweighed Strategy's purchase. Cash fell to $640.5m; ETF flows negative (−$585.9m).
September CPI beat: 3.7% headline (vs 3.6%) and 2.6% core (vs 2.5%), energy up 5.2% MoM. Inflation firm despite Fed hiking.
Does the beat force further hiking—or does credit stress prompt policy recalibration?
Escalation widened as Houthis struck Riyadh airport (Oct 10–11), with Iran reviewing the US response via Qatar. Hormuz collapsed to 1 crossing (avg 26) and the SPR is down 30.5% YoY to 283.0m barrels—critical supply squeeze.
Democrats hold 62–63% odds to sweep Congress 3 November; the Senate is the swing race. A full sweep raises gridlock risk for Trump. France's fiscal credibility under pressure: OAT-Bund 152bp, debt 119% GDP, growth 0.4%.
Credit repricing accelerating. Oracle CDS 251.9bps, nearly 2x AVGO (132.6bps). OpenAI's ARR gap ($50B vs $70B target) signals tensions as Q3 earnings peak 26 Oct. BTC momentum fading as STRC buybacks ($192.4m) outweighed Strategy's purchase. Cash fell to $640.5m; ETF flows negative (−$585.9m).
September CPI beat: 3.7% headline (vs 3.6%) and 2.6% core (vs 2.5%), energy up 5.2% MoM. Inflation firm despite Fed hiking.
Does the beat force further hiking—or does credit stress prompt policy recalibration?
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QCP Market Colour, 16 October 2026
September CPI printed hotter than expected: 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y (vs 0.6% and 3.6% consensus), with core at 2.6% y/y (vs 2.5%) and monthly core at 0.3%. The inflation data was firm across the board. Yet Treasury yields declined sharply as market participants reassessed risk dynamics. The 10-year peaked at 5.35% and the 30-year at 5.73% before reversing lower—a clear flight-to-quality dynamic overrode the inflation signal.
The catalyst: AI credit stress. CoreWeave closed down 15.5%, with 5Y CDS hitting 60%—significantly elevated default risk. The NASDAQ and KOSPI fell as participants digested infrastructure sector stress. This is not a minor name; CoreWeave is critical to AI compute capacity. Market participants are now reassessing credit quality across technology ahead of earnings season in two weeks.
MSCI’s new non-operating company methodology creates additional structural risk, potentially affecting index inclusion for certain holdings. The market has pivoted from viewing inflation as the binding constraint to viewing AI credit risk as the primary risk driver. This will shape positioning through earnings and into any announced tech IPO timelines this quarter.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
September CPI printed hotter than expected: 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y (vs 0.6% and 3.6% consensus), with core at 2.6% y/y (vs 2.5%) and monthly core at 0.3%. The inflation data was firm across the board. Yet Treasury yields declined sharply as market participants reassessed risk dynamics. The 10-year peaked at 5.35% and the 30-year at 5.73% before reversing lower—a clear flight-to-quality dynamic overrode the inflation signal.
The catalyst: AI credit stress. CoreWeave closed down 15.5%, with 5Y CDS hitting 60%—significantly elevated default risk. The NASDAQ and KOSPI fell as participants digested infrastructure sector stress. This is not a minor name; CoreWeave is critical to AI compute capacity. Market participants are now reassessing credit quality across technology ahead of earnings season in two weeks.
MSCI’s new non-operating company methodology creates additional structural risk, potentially affecting index inclusion for certain holdings. The market has pivoted from viewing inflation as the binding constraint to viewing AI credit risk as the primary risk driver. This will shape positioning through earnings and into any announced tech IPO timelines this quarter.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP October 16, 2026
AI Credit Risk Overtakes Inflation Concerns September CPI data arrived hotter than consensus expectations, yet Treasury yields declined sharply as market participants reassessed risk dynamics across asset classes. Headline CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month and…
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QCP Market Colour, 19 October 2026
Bitcoin remained confined to $80–$83k last week with strong support at the $80k level. Its resilience contrasts with continued pressure on technology stocks. CoreWeave’s 5Y CDS widened beyond 1,100bps, underscoring debt-funded AI concerns pressuring semiconductors.
Hot CPI initially pushed 2Y yields to 4.9% and 10Y above 5.3%. Defensive demand drove yields lower. Thursday’s strong PPI failed to sustain the selloff. Warsh’s Friday remarks cut October hike odds to 15% from sub-30% earlier in the week. The yield retreat helped support BTC’s recovery.
Investors rotated from semiconductors to healthcare and banks. The FTSE outperformed US tech. Renewed Treasury demand and BTC resilience suggest diversification from crowded AI exposure. Direct crypto flows remain unconfirmed—this may reflect conventional safe-haven rotation.
BTC’s implied volatility trades below its 1-year trailing average despite equity turbulence. Dealer long-gamma positioning may be containing spot, but that stabilizes only until options roll. A sustained break outside $80-88k could trigger sharper repricing. Watch tech earnings this week.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
Bitcoin remained confined to $80–$83k last week with strong support at the $80k level. Its resilience contrasts with continued pressure on technology stocks. CoreWeave’s 5Y CDS widened beyond 1,100bps, underscoring debt-funded AI concerns pressuring semiconductors.
Hot CPI initially pushed 2Y yields to 4.9% and 10Y above 5.3%. Defensive demand drove yields lower. Thursday’s strong PPI failed to sustain the selloff. Warsh’s Friday remarks cut October hike odds to 15% from sub-30% earlier in the week. The yield retreat helped support BTC’s recovery.
Investors rotated from semiconductors to healthcare and banks. The FTSE outperformed US tech. Renewed Treasury demand and BTC resilience suggest diversification from crowded AI exposure. Direct crypto flows remain unconfirmed—this may reflect conventional safe-haven rotation.
BTC’s implied volatility trades below its 1-year trailing average despite equity turbulence. Dealer long-gamma positioning may be containing spot, but that stabilizes only until options roll. A sustained break outside $80-88k could trigger sharper repricing. Watch tech earnings this week.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP October 19, 2026
BTC: Resilient Within the Range Bitcoin remained largely confined to a tight $80,000–$83,000 range last week with strong support established at the $80,000 level. Its resilience contrasts with continued pressure on technology stocks. CoreWeave’s five-year…
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Macro Themes, 22 October 2026.pdf
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QCP Macro Themes, 22 October 2026
Hormuz talks stalled as Tehran's conditions remained unmet and Saudi-Houthi strikes widened the front. Physical flows near zero on AIS, but dark-ship estimates put 3.7–13 mb/d through the strait. SPR sits at 283.0m barrels, down 30.5% YoY.
Credit markets diverging on AI financing stress. CoreWeave's CDS at 1,128bps, 3x Oracle's 300bps, as debt-to-revenue hits 162% versus Oracle's 4.7x coverage. Broadcom's $50.1bn issuance shows strength (FY25 leverage 1.93x), but tech credit spread widening.
KOSPI crashed 14.5% (worst since Oct 2008) as chip selling accelerated by foreign outflows ₩11.24tn and margin stress amplified losses. Samsung and SK hynix each fell 17–24% on AI financing fears.
Strategy faces index overhang: MSCI's non-operating test could remove it at November review; ~13m passive-tracked shares contested. BTC buying slowed to 267 coins; STRC buybacks $193.1m outweigh.
Does the energy premium hold, or does tech credit contagion spread?
Hormuz talks stalled as Tehran's conditions remained unmet and Saudi-Houthi strikes widened the front. Physical flows near zero on AIS, but dark-ship estimates put 3.7–13 mb/d through the strait. SPR sits at 283.0m barrels, down 30.5% YoY.
Credit markets diverging on AI financing stress. CoreWeave's CDS at 1,128bps, 3x Oracle's 300bps, as debt-to-revenue hits 162% versus Oracle's 4.7x coverage. Broadcom's $50.1bn issuance shows strength (FY25 leverage 1.93x), but tech credit spread widening.
KOSPI crashed 14.5% (worst since Oct 2008) as chip selling accelerated by foreign outflows ₩11.24tn and margin stress amplified losses. Samsung and SK hynix each fell 17–24% on AI financing fears.
Strategy faces index overhang: MSCI's non-operating test could remove it at November review; ~13m passive-tracked shares contested. BTC buying slowed to 267 coins; STRC buybacks $193.1m outweigh.
Does the energy premium hold, or does tech credit contagion spread?
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QCP Market Colour, 23 October 2026
CoreWeave bonds hitting 15% YTM as credit stress spreads across AI infrastructure. The repricing extended beyond CoreWeave to broader neocloudinfrastructure, triggering selloffs in equities and cryptocurrency. Flight-to-quality drove longer-dated US Treasury yields lower despite credit concerns.
CoreWeave fell 10% October 22 on cost-of-capital worries. Tesla adjusted forward capex lower, adding to AI profitability concerns across the technology sector. Elevated financing costs are constraining capital allocation and expected return profiles for infrastructure projects.
Eurozone dynamics shifted notably: 10-year OATs hit 5% on October 22, exceeding 5.1%, with the OAT-Bund spread widening to 170bp. Credit and fiscal risk premiums are repricing across the region.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent and WTI to five-month highs, with discussion of potential escalation creating supply disruption concerns. October hike odds moved to near zero; December cut conviction fading. Bitcoin tracking equity weakness rather than establishing independent price discovery. Watch tech earnings, Fed December meeting, geopolitical developments, and November 3 midterms.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
CoreWeave bonds hitting 15% YTM as credit stress spreads across AI infrastructure. The repricing extended beyond CoreWeave to broader neocloudinfrastructure, triggering selloffs in equities and cryptocurrency. Flight-to-quality drove longer-dated US Treasury yields lower despite credit concerns.
CoreWeave fell 10% October 22 on cost-of-capital worries. Tesla adjusted forward capex lower, adding to AI profitability concerns across the technology sector. Elevated financing costs are constraining capital allocation and expected return profiles for infrastructure projects.
Eurozone dynamics shifted notably: 10-year OATs hit 5% on October 22, exceeding 5.1%, with the OAT-Bund spread widening to 170bp. Credit and fiscal risk premiums are repricing across the region.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent and WTI to five-month highs, with discussion of potential escalation creating supply disruption concerns. October hike odds moved to near zero; December cut conviction fading. Bitcoin tracking equity weakness rather than establishing independent price discovery. Watch tech earnings, Fed December meeting, geopolitical developments, and November 3 midterms.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
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QCP Market Colour, 26 October 2026
BTC broke below $80k over the weekend as Middle East headlines and ETF outflows forced out leveraged longs. Price now sits at the bottom of its recent range into the 27-28 October FOMC.
Hyperscaler earnings are the swing factor. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday US time, Amazon on Thursday. Results that justify the spend could mark the re-rating; results that don’t extend the AI unwind. Oil, down about 2%, is the second driver after the US cut staff at Middle East embassies.
The Fed is expected to hold, but December hike odds sit near 84%, so Chair Warsh’s press conference matters. The 10-year is around 4.96%, off a one-year high near 5.3%.
BTC support is $78k, resistance $86k. ETH support is $2,150, resistance $2,500, and ETH ETFs have seen four straight weeks of outflows.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
BTC broke below $80k over the weekend as Middle East headlines and ETF outflows forced out leveraged longs. Price now sits at the bottom of its recent range into the 27-28 October FOMC.
Hyperscaler earnings are the swing factor. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday US time, Amazon on Thursday. Results that justify the spend could mark the re-rating; results that don’t extend the AI unwind. Oil, down about 2%, is the second driver after the US cut staff at Middle East embassies.
The Fed is expected to hold, but December hike odds sit near 84%, so Chair Warsh’s press conference matters. The 10-year is around 4.96%, off a one-year high near 5.3%.
BTC support is $78k, resistance $86k. ETH support is $2,150, resistance $2,500, and ETH ETFs have seen four straight weeks of outflows.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP October 26, 2026
Below $80k Ahead of Big Tech and the Fed BTC broke below $80k over the weekend and keeps trading weak. Middle East headlines and late-week ETF outflows forced out leveraged longs, and the price now sits at the bottom of its recent range heading into the 27…
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Macro Themes, 29 October 2026 .pdf
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QCP Macro Themes, 29 October 2026
Iran talks stalled before midterms as shipping attacks hit 28 in October—war's highest monthly total. Protected transits kept exports near prewar levels, but White House ruled out a pre-election strike, pushing deal pressure beyond the election.
Real yields drove the bond rally as growth fears beat oil with US 10Y real down 31bp. France's OAT-Bund hit 175bp on 22 October, widest since 2011, signaling rotational pressure away from peripheral duration.
Tech valuations diverging. SOXX drawn $12.4bn since 1 July while QQQ shed $4.7bn on semis rotation as AI capex turns concrete. CoreWeave CDS at 1,121bps (3.7x Oracle's 304bps) reflects financing concerns in most-leveraged cohort.
Anthropic's S-1 is public, with pricing reported for the week of 16 November at a $1.5–2.0tn valuation. H1 revenue hit $16.3bn, exceeding all of 2025's $4.6bn; Q2 marked first operating profit at $974m. Nasdaq-100 entry expected ~10 December.
Strategy paused BTC buying; STRC buybacks $204.9m.
Iran talks stalled before midterms as shipping attacks hit 28 in October—war's highest monthly total. Protected transits kept exports near prewar levels, but White House ruled out a pre-election strike, pushing deal pressure beyond the election.
Real yields drove the bond rally as growth fears beat oil with US 10Y real down 31bp. France's OAT-Bund hit 175bp on 22 October, widest since 2011, signaling rotational pressure away from peripheral duration.
Tech valuations diverging. SOXX drawn $12.4bn since 1 July while QQQ shed $4.7bn on semis rotation as AI capex turns concrete. CoreWeave CDS at 1,121bps (3.7x Oracle's 304bps) reflects financing concerns in most-leveraged cohort.
Anthropic's S-1 is public, with pricing reported for the week of 16 November at a $1.5–2.0tn valuation. H1 revenue hit $16.3bn, exceeding all of 2025's $4.6bn; Q2 marked first operating profit at $974m. Nasdaq-100 entry expected ~10 December.
Strategy paused BTC buying; STRC buybacks $204.9m.
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QCP Market Colour, 30 October 2026
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% by 10–2 vote; Warsh declined to pre-commit to December action. The Committee announced one 2027 meeting and two 2028 meetings will have no rate votes, used only for strategy. Fewer decision points mean more data accumulates between decisions, potentially increasing rates volatility and term premiums.
The ECB held unchanged; markets pricing December hike. The BOJ held steady after announcing inflation hit 2% target; markets pricing December hike. Central banks maintaining optionality as credit concerns persist.
Technology earnings disappointed. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Intel all declined post-earnings on profitability concerns and elevated future CAPEX spending plans. The sector repricing reflects uncertainty about infrastructure investment returns.
Binance experienced a $6.3bn cybersecurity breach Friday morning. Markets initially lower but subsequently stabilized, treating it as company-specific rather than systemic. Credit and earnings concerns remain the binding constraints on risk appetite.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% by 10–2 vote; Warsh declined to pre-commit to December action. The Committee announced one 2027 meeting and two 2028 meetings will have no rate votes, used only for strategy. Fewer decision points mean more data accumulates between decisions, potentially increasing rates volatility and term premiums.
The ECB held unchanged; markets pricing December hike. The BOJ held steady after announcing inflation hit 2% target; markets pricing December hike. Central banks maintaining optionality as credit concerns persist.
Technology earnings disappointed. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Intel all declined post-earnings on profitability concerns and elevated future CAPEX spending plans. The sector repricing reflects uncertainty about infrastructure investment returns.
Binance experienced a $6.3bn cybersecurity breach Friday morning. Markets initially lower but subsequently stabilized, treating it as company-specific rather than systemic. Credit and earnings concerns remain the binding constraints on risk appetite.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
QCP Group
QCP Market Colour - QCP October 30, 2026
Central Banks Pause as Credit Concerns Persist The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote at its October meeting. Fed Chair Warsh declined to pre-commit to additional rate moves in December or beyond, maintaining his stated position…