https://www.tradingview.com/x/wfP4EQx8/ ( Daily )

#BTC 💰

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MI5PILjJ/ ( H4 )

Bitcoin respected the 100/300SMA resistance on H4 yesterday, however we didn't had a major rejection which is a good sign.
Instead we had the H4 trend moving upper and compressing the price with the 100/300SMA.

In the daily chart D1 trend needs to hold the price in the short term.

So today focus will be on H4 and D1 trend holding the price.
Price breaking above H4 300SMA.

And also on how SPX gonna behave on the weekly close.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ae4Nghvf/

#BTC 💰

Bitcoin at a key level just below 100K.

Marked in the chart all the important areas..

First we need to hold all the EMA's on this region from 98 to 96K.

Must break above 100K round number ( big resistance )
When/If broken = potential new strong trend on the H4 aka Long your longs.

If we fail to break 100K today we can expect some chop around the EMA's.

Worst case = Retest of 90K.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EmFZMvoQ/

#BTC 💰

Next target around 104K naked POC.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ptTigEsA/

#BTC 💰

Failed to reach 104K and rejected from must break.
H4 trend lost and pointing to the downside.

We need to hold the POC and 100SMA + 200 EMA to avoid going for the 90K's retest.

Must break needs to be reclaimed and broken, better if we do it fast as it will give more chances to this dip being just a buy opportunity.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6nVfzYA9/

#BTC 💰

Failure to hold the POC + H4 100SMA and 200EMA.

We had good economic data that nuked the markets, more data coming today and on Friday. And if it comes good again we can expect the SPX and Crypto to dip more, simply because when we have good economic data the chances of fed cuts will be low which is bearish for our markets.
So let's pray for some bad economic data today to pump our bags.


In terms of analysis we can see that all the moving averages are almost in the same zone on the H4.
Usually in these conditions we tend to get some chop with price going above and below the moving averages before taking a direction.
Let's keep it here for now and see what we get from the economic data soon.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/24VGAH8U/

#BTC 💰

2nd POC tagged + retest of monthly/yearly open.

Do or die zone for short term bullishness.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9svmm9vO/

#BTC 💰

In the H4 we lost our must hold area. All the major moving averages are above the price now so we're switching to the daily.

In this chart we have a new must hold level at the value area low as mentioned in the previous updates.

Stocks closed today and we have the silk road bitcoins fud which makes the market more volatile.

Some thoughts :

I don't think that this move is something really bad for the markets at the moment. Things can change in the market pretty fast but atm this is not a big deal.

This dip has probably more fuel and we might have a capitulation wick down so don't rush into fresh longs. You should never fade a strong trend. ( See how 15m and H1 trends are respected )

Regarding the Silk Road bitcoins, nothing has been sold yet and it's also not the first time we have to deal with this news. One thing is sure is that nothing has moved on-chain.

This dip could be a good thing if it sets the stage for Trump to trigger a rally after the inauguration.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4IAOCn41/

#BTC 💰

The fight for H4 trend has started in Bitcoin.

Let's dive into lower time frames :

https://www.tradingview.com/x/erHhA336/ (15m)

We've been talking about the 15m chart lately in the chat and that price has to first start by closing above 15m trend.
Now price is just below it but it's not relevant anymore since we have a compression between 300 and 100SMA.
Compressions are good setups as it's easier to trade with clear invalidations.

Expecting this compression to hold a little bit more to make it more tight.
If we break the compression without any consolidation on it we might see a retest of our Must Break area.

Market giving few positive vibes at the moment which needs more confirmations either by compressing in the 15m without breaking down ( which means we're consolidating below H4 trend without rejecting from it = POSITIVE )

Breaking down from the compression will send us to test the Must Hold area.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3SGopDBQ/

#BTC 💰

Back to the daily chart.

Price visiting the value area low ( Must Hold ) been talking about this area for entire last week.

100SMA around 86k as worst case dump scenario in the short term.

86 to 91K is where we can expect Bitcoin to have a bounce.

If we go straight to 86K I will spot bid it with an invalidation on a daily close below D1 100SMA.

If we start ranging from here, I will look for a short term setup (15m compression or whatever ) to spot bid + add a leveraged trade.

Tip: Do not rush things by knife catching dips, when you can trade easier setups with better invalidations.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j4HGEft3/

#BTC 💰

Immediate reaction at Must Hold area sending price back to the H1 trend as must break in the short term.

From here we have :

1. Break H1 trend and we're good for 100SMA / 200EMA retests.
2. Unable to break H1 trend means we range more between 90-93K at best / dump to 86k D1 100SMA in the worst case.