https://www.tradingview.com/x/ptTigEsA/

#BTC 💰

Failed to reach 104K and rejected from must break.
H4 trend lost and pointing to the downside.

We need to hold the POC and 100SMA + 200 EMA to avoid going for the 90K's retest.

Must break needs to be reclaimed and broken, better if we do it fast as it will give more chances to this dip being just a buy opportunity.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6nVfzYA9/

#BTC 💰

Failure to hold the POC + H4 100SMA and 200EMA.

We had good economic data that nuked the markets, more data coming today and on Friday. And if it comes good again we can expect the SPX and Crypto to dip more, simply because when we have good economic data the chances of fed cuts will be low which is bearish for our markets.
So let's pray for some bad economic data today to pump our bags.


In terms of analysis we can see that all the moving averages are almost in the same zone on the H4.
Usually in these conditions we tend to get some chop with price going above and below the moving averages before taking a direction.
Let's keep it here for now and see what we get from the economic data soon.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/24VGAH8U/

#BTC 💰

2nd POC tagged + retest of monthly/yearly open.

Do or die zone for short term bullishness.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9svmm9vO/

#BTC 💰

In the H4 we lost our must hold area. All the major moving averages are above the price now so we're switching to the daily.

In this chart we have a new must hold level at the value area low as mentioned in the previous updates.

Stocks closed today and we have the silk road bitcoins fud which makes the market more volatile.

Some thoughts :

I don't think that this move is something really bad for the markets at the moment. Things can change in the market pretty fast but atm this is not a big deal.

This dip has probably more fuel and we might have a capitulation wick down so don't rush into fresh longs. You should never fade a strong trend. ( See how 15m and H1 trends are respected )

Regarding the Silk Road bitcoins, nothing has been sold yet and it's also not the first time we have to deal with this news. One thing is sure is that nothing has moved on-chain.

This dip could be a good thing if it sets the stage for Trump to trigger a rally after the inauguration.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4IAOCn41/

#BTC 💰

The fight for H4 trend has started in Bitcoin.

Let's dive into lower time frames :

https://www.tradingview.com/x/erHhA336/ (15m)

We've been talking about the 15m chart lately in the chat and that price has to first start by closing above 15m trend.
Now price is just below it but it's not relevant anymore since we have a compression between 300 and 100SMA.
Compressions are good setups as it's easier to trade with clear invalidations.

Expecting this compression to hold a little bit more to make it more tight.
If we break the compression without any consolidation on it we might see a retest of our Must Break area.

Market giving few positive vibes at the moment which needs more confirmations either by compressing in the 15m without breaking down ( which means we're consolidating below H4 trend without rejecting from it = POSITIVE )

Breaking down from the compression will send us to test the Must Hold area.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3SGopDBQ/

#BTC 💰

Back to the daily chart.

Price visiting the value area low ( Must Hold ) been talking about this area for entire last week.

100SMA around 86k as worst case dump scenario in the short term.

86 to 91K is where we can expect Bitcoin to have a bounce.

If we go straight to 86K I will spot bid it with an invalidation on a daily close below D1 100SMA.

If we start ranging from here, I will look for a short term setup (15m compression or whatever ) to spot bid + add a leveraged trade.

Tip: Do not rush things by knife catching dips, when you can trade easier setups with better invalidations.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j4HGEft3/

#BTC 💰

Immediate reaction at Must Hold area sending price back to the H1 trend as must break in the short term.

From here we have :

1. Break H1 trend and we're good for 100SMA / 200EMA retests.
2. Unable to break H1 trend means we range more between 90-93K at best / dump to 86k D1 100SMA in the worst case.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZqbcuuNs/

#BTC 💰

Back above the POC / H4 trend / H4 100/300SMA / H4 200EMA / Trendline.

Only thing above our heads is the Value Area High ( Must break )

97.5K is the area we don't want to see price visiting again for short term upside.

I'm a little busy to scalp but you can long any good dips ( 5m/15m trend retests ) with a stop loss below 97.5K.
TP half at must break (100.5K) and ride the rest with stop at entry.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TQ1QvlhT/

#BTC 💰

Must Break still acting as a resistance for the price.

We can see that this time the rejection is less hard than the previous move to this area which shows the weakness of the sellers. ( Testing an area several times makes it weaker )

From here we can use H4 trend as new must hold.

Must Break remains the same ( In my opinion breaking 100K will send price easy above 102k so Must must break is around 100.5K )

If unable to break we can expect some chop either around H4 trend or by going below all the major EMA's which can be a good buy opportunity.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sIWX6EQ2/

#BTC 💰

Bitcoin is going above the Must Break area showing that yesterday's rejection was a weak one and that buyers were stronger below resistance.

We have H4 trend (13/21EMA) as must hold.
103K area needs to break so we can see new ATH's.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SnOnYvOM/

#BTC 💰

Back at Must Hold Area/ Range High / VaH !

Big zone to defend here with the daily 13EMA tap and the daily trend in general.

So we got range high, value area highs and the daily trend in the same area from 99K to 103K.

From here we can expect :

1. Hear positive news about crypto with the dollar (DXY) going down and BTC going up from here after this 13EMA retest.
2. No news for crypto and we either chop from here and BTC goes down for the POC or fill the gap to the 100SMA or maybe at best chop at range highs.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/x1NoqHNU/

#BTC 💰

Price is back at Must Hold + D1 trend just below.

Let's keep it simple :
Retest and stay above Must hold + D1 trend = high chances of going higher.
Lose this area = high chances of retesting POC and/or range lows.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/o89i9IAH/

#BTC 💰

As mentioned in the previous update, losing Must Hold + D1 trend sent us directly to the POC ( area with biggest volume )

Hold here and we can expect more chop + potential to go for Must Break around 104k.
Losing this area may take us for a sharper drop around range lows ( 90k )

https://www.tradingview.com/x/v0M7N3io/

#BTC 💰

Yesterday lows held the price.

From here :

1. Go for range highs ( Must Break ) = Bullish
2. Lose yesterday lows = Bearish ( High chances of going to range lows around 90-92k.
3. Chop in this area without losing last lows or reclaiming new highs.

The direction of the day will depend on the SPX at NYO :

1. If SPX pumps by NYO to reject later, we will get scenario 2 or 3 at best.
2. IF SPX dumps by NYO to pump a bit later, we will probably go for scenario 1.

Note that FOMC is tomorrow, and we can just trade on low volumes until we're done with it. ( scenario 3 )

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cyPdOsOx/

#BTC 💰

Scenario 3 played out where we just chopped without taking any highs/lows.

Big day with the FOMC coming soon..
A day where context matters more than technical analysis, as we will move based on the rate decision/Powell speech/market reaction.

So let's dive into the context more deeply :

BTC has always shown a big correlation to traditional markets like Gold/S&P500 and even inversely correlated to the Dollar.

The thing is that sometimes it follows Gold sometimes the S&P, while being inversely correlated to the Dollar and sometimes it just doesn't care about it.

Since this new china AI, BTC is following the US tech ( magnificent seven Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla.
So it's worth keeping an eye on them for the coming days.
We have the Microsoft, Tesla and Meta earnings coming later today also.
The markets will give more attention to these earnings especially after the Deepseek AI came in.

Let's get back to Bitcoin :

FOMC are usually high volatility days, where just a "Good afternoon" said from Powell tends to move the markets lol

I think that trading this event will be pretty much gambling and the best way to be ready for it is to prepare for both the bullish and bearish case to be ready to deploy money once the market digests the news.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YOv2Mheb/

#BTC 💰

Working the Must Break area.

Must hold H4 trend around 103K.
If unable to break Must Break while also holding H4 trend we may just range in between these two areas.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qIoUdQXU/

#BTC 💰

Same story again except that we have job data soon and if it's bullish we can get the spike of volume needed to push price higher.
H4 100SMA as first TP if data is bullish.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/K29nEIjb/

Lower time frames :

H1 compression that I want to long here at 97700$, stop would be an exit on a bearish or neutral job data.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CvnkDY3y/ ( Trade Setup )