Leading up to the approval of spot #ETFs in January, speculation surged, leading Long-Term Holders (#LTH) to either cash out for profit or reallocate their holdings into new #ETF products. This resulted in a significant decrease in LTH supply balance by approximately 299.5K #BTC since November, from a peak of 14.996M BTC. Notably, analysis of #GBTC flows, with around 661k BTC inflow and 151.5K #BTC outflows in 2021, suggests that remaining #LTH supply, totaling 148K #BTC, is being spent by investors. This trend aligns with previous research indicating LTHs begin distributing their holdings as the market approaches all-time high prices.
We can see that the total volume of #LTH Supply held in loss is currently 777.8K #BTC, and is trending towards the zero bound as prices rise. Just 6.5% of the aggregate #LTH supply is therefore held in loss.
Previous instances where the LTH cohort held a similar coin volume in loss corresponds with early bull market conditions (with 2019 as an arguable outlier).
Previous instances where the LTH cohort held a similar coin volume in loss corresponds with early bull market conditions (with 2019 as an arguable outlier).
As prices rise, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are selling their holdings. #LTH Supply has decreased by -900K #BTC since December 2023, with #GBTC trust outflows accounting for about one third (-286K #BTC). Meanwhile, Short-Term Holder Supply has increased by +1.121M #BTC, absorbing #LTH selling pressure and acquiring 121K #BTC from exchanges.
14D SMA of total #RealizedLoss at $479M per day — roughly 140% above the $200M baseline seen during stable cycle periods 📉🔴. Investors rushing to exit at narrower loss margins as price recovers 💪.
Sustained compression back below $200M per day would confirm selling exhaustion and genuine demand regime shift. Until then, dual pressure from #LTH profit taking and top-buyer distribution likely to cap the current rally ⚡️🎯👀
Sustained compression back below $200M per day would confirm selling exhaustion and genuine demand regime shift. Until then, dual pressure from #LTH profit taking and top-buyer distribution likely to cap the current rally ⚡️🎯👀
#LTH Net Position Change firmly back in positive territory — experienced holders rebuilding positions after extended distribution phase 📈🟢💪. Accumulation pace modest compared to prior bull market waves but marks a notable behavioral shift 🔴.
Timing aligns with #BTC retracing toward $60K — conviction-driven investors viewing correction as opportunity rather than risk. Too early to call a full accumulation regime but persistent #LTH buying provides encouraging signal that conviction is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface ⚡️🎯👀
Timing aligns with #BTC retracing toward $60K — conviction-driven investors viewing correction as opportunity rather than risk. Too early to call a full accumulation regime but persistent #LTH buying provides encouraging signal that conviction is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface ⚡️🎯👀
#BTC LTH Realized Loss Update:
Entity-Adjusted #LTH Realized Loss 30D SMA peaked at ~$280M per day — highest reading since December 2022, marking the second major capitulation spike this bear cycle 📉🔴. Unlike the first spike which saw a partial cooldown, current wave has not yet contracted to lower levels 💪.
Until this metric compresses meaningfully, path toward bull market transition remains obstructed — trajectory of this indicator will be among the most critical signals for determining whether genuine sell-side exhaustion is approaching in coming weeks ⚡️🎯👀
Entity-Adjusted #LTH Realized Loss 30D SMA peaked at ~$280M per day — highest reading since December 2022, marking the second major capitulation spike this bear cycle 📉🔴. Unlike the first spike which saw a partial cooldown, current wave has not yet contracted to lower levels 💪.
Until this metric compresses meaningfully, path toward bull market transition remains obstructed — trajectory of this indicator will be among the most critical signals for determining whether genuine sell-side exhaustion is approaching in coming weeks ⚡️🎯👀
Adjusted #LTH Realized Loss set its cycle peak two weeks ago and has now turned down — the single most important development in the current bottoming process 📉🔴. For the first time this cycle, the metric defining bear market depth is falling rather than rising 💪.
One turn does not prove exhaustion and a fresh shock could restart it — but at the margin, the sellers who made this bear market are beginning to run out of supply to sell ⚡️🎯👀
One turn does not prove exhaustion and a fresh shock could restart it — but at the margin, the sellers who made this bear market are beginning to run out of supply to sell ⚡️🎯👀