#STH (Short-term Hodler) supply in profit reached above 50% of their hodlings.

In response to the current price rally, over 70.5% of all recently acquired #BTC is back in the green.

This demonstrates that a large volume of coins changed hands over recent months.

As the market recovers from extended #bear markets, these new #STH buyers return to profit.

We have seen this explosion in #STH profit dominance, indicative of a large #proportion of the coin supply having been accumulated below the current price

Looking at the distribution of Unspent Realized Price for the Short-Term Holder (#STH) cohort in Bitcoin, we can see that 74% (2.02 million out of 2.72M #BTC) of the STH supply is currently in a profitable position, while 26% (705,000 out of 2.72M #BTC) is underwater.

It is worth noting that approximately 560,000 STH coins (21%) are closely aligned with the current spot price, indicating that a significant portion of the STH #supply is particularly responsive to price movements.

This Chart Shows the #Profit or #Loss Bias (dominance) of #STH volumes flowing into exchanges. We can see a steady decline in profit dominance as the 2023 rally progressed, as more #STHs acquired coins with an increasingly elevated cost basis.

This week we saw the largest loss dominance reading since the #March sell-off to $19,800. This suggests that the STH cohort are both largely underwater on their holdings, and increasingly price sensitive.

#STH-#NUPL has crossed above 0.25 for the first time since the Nov-2021 #ATH.

This suggests both a degree of optimistic market sentiment is creeping in for #ETH but is also a level where markets tend to take a pause and digest profit taking distribution pressure. Historically, this type of sentiment shift for short-term holders has coincided with local peaks during a macro uptrend.

Further confluence can be found by evaluating the percentage of the overall #STH balance sent to exchanges. Since Oct 2023, the STH cohort have been depositing upwards of 1% of their supply per day, peaking at a value 2.36% during the recent #ETF led speculation. This is largest relative deposit since the March 2020 sell-off.

By this #STH/Total Realized Loss Ratio, we can see that this condition has lasted for between 6.5 and 13.5 months until the bear market sets in. The current market has only entered this condition for around 1-month so far.

#STH Supply in Profit at 43.2% — still well below the 54.2% exhaustion zone where rallies typically top out 📉🔴.

Rally has more room to run toward #TrueMarketMean — watch this level closely as price climbs ⚡️🎯👀

#STH cost basis at $80.1K is the next key hurdle — holders approaching breakeven creates natural distribution pressure 📉🔴.

Historically takes multiple attempts to break through — $78K–$80.1K key #Resistance, $70K developing as mid-term support floor ⚡️🎯👀

24H SMA of #STH Realized Profit spiked above $4.4M per hour as price retests #ShortTermHolder cost basis for the second time 📉🔴. Every prior spike above $1.5M per hour has coincided with a local top — the current reading is nearly 3x that warning threshold 💪. Without a meaningful demand catalyst to absorb this profit wave, a pullback from current levels remains highly probable — signals point toward caution over conviction ⚡️🎯👀

#BTC pushed to $81K, clearing both #TrueMarketMean at $78.2K and #STH cost basis at $79.1K in one clean move 📈🟢💪.

Holding above these levels would be historically significant. The next key hurdle is the Active Realized Price at $85.2K ⚡️🎯👀.

#STH Net Realized P&L recovered from -0.44% at February lows to briefly positive, before fading back to -0.02% in mid-May — neatly mapping the rally and subsequent consolidation 📉🔴.

Directional improvement is constructive but magnitude falls short of levels needed for sustained expansion beyond #TrueMarketMean. Recovery into positive territory = pre-bull transition. Reversal toward February lows = bear market continuation 💪⚡️🎯👀

#STH MVRV recovered from 0.83 last week to 0.90 currently — still below the critical 1.0 breakeven threshold for recent buyers 📉🔴. Implied cohort cost basis sits near $72.6K, leaving recent buyers roughly 10% underwater on average 💪.

Recent rally offering some relief but not enough to bring cohort back into net profit — a key precondition for any sustainable bear market exit. Until #STHMVRV reclaims 1.0, this cohort remains a standing source of overhead supply on any recovery attempt ⚡️🎯👀

BTC at $62.3K sits 19% below #TrueMarketMean at $77K — firmly in structural bear territory 📉🔴. #STH cost basis declined to $71.4K, reflecting new buyers accumulating well below the True Market Mean — a constructive cyclical development 💪.

Incoming capital being deployed at increasingly disconnected levels from cycle highs signals early bottom formation progress. Any macro-driven leg lower would see #RealizedPrice at $53.4K as the most probable bear market lower bound ⚡️🎯👀

#BTC trading above #RealizedPrice — the natural bear market floor — but below #STH cost basis near $69K, the average entry of the past five months of buyers 📉🔴. Recovery climbing toward that breakeven level which represents the next key overhead #Resistance 💪.

First test of $69K likely to draw a strong reaction — holders approaching breakeven are most inclined to sell. A convincing reclaim gives recovery room to run while rejection keeps the range firmly intact ⚡️🎯👀

#BTC has recovered strongly above $81,000 after briefly losing the #TrueMarketMean at $76.7K during the Senate CLARITY Act vote failure on September 15 📈🟢💪. The slip below that level proved short-lived — price has since reclaimed it decisively and pushed significantly higher 🔴.

Recovery above $81,000 is a very bullish signal — next key levels to watch are the #STH cost basis at $71.3K now acting as strong support below, while further upside targets come into focus above current levels ⚡️🎯👀

\Nearly two thirds of resting bids now sitting between 1%–10% below price — up from about half at start of year 📉🔴. Buy wall from 10%–20% below has drained significantly below normal depth 💪.

Near bids reach down to ~$68K with book turning thin until ~$61K — a dangerous no man's land. #STH cost basis at $71.3K sits within the near block making it a normal retest level. Range break would expose the on-chain floor at $62K–$65K where heaviest supply block was last accumulated ⚡️🎯👀