JPMorgan says 'no end in sight' to US war on Iran as Trump breaches all economic red lines
After six months of the US war on Iran, investment bank JPMorgan Chase's oil analysts have given up on modeling when the war will end, suggesting no relief is in sight from high crude prices that threaten global economic growth, Bloomberg reported on 18 September.
"For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view," said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy, in a Thursday note. "We simply don't know how to model the endgame."
The bank's analysts previously assumed that US President Donald Trump would end the war before several economic "red lines" were crossed: oil above $100 a barrel, gasoline prices near $5 a gallon, and 10-year Treasury yields at 5 percent.
It breaks my heart to see anyone give a fuck about any of it only because gas is more expensive. Not the genocide, not the massacres of random weddings... Gas prices.
@americanmajority
After six months of the US war on Iran, investment bank JPMorgan Chase's oil analysts have given up on modeling when the war will end, suggesting no relief is in sight from high crude prices that threaten global economic growth, Bloomberg reported on 18 September.
"For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view," said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy, in a Thursday note. "We simply don't know how to model the endgame."
The bank's analysts previously assumed that US President Donald Trump would end the war before several economic "red lines" were crossed: oil above $100 a barrel, gasoline prices near $5 a gallon, and 10-year Treasury yields at 5 percent.
It breaks my heart to see anyone give a fuck about any of it only because gas is more expensive. Not the genocide, not the massacres of random weddings... Gas prices.
@americanmajority
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Aramco cuts off crude supplies to European refiners
Saudi Aramco has informed at least two European refiners that they will receive no crude in October under their long-term supply contracts, citing the damage caused by a drone attack on the East-West, Bloomberg reported on 18 September.
According to people briefed on the decision, the cutoff is not limited to the refiners Aramco has notified so far and applies to all of its European buyers.
These customers typically receive Saudi crude every month under term contracts meant to keep supplies steady.
The cutoff has left European refiners scrambling to replace the lost barrels. Poland's Orlen has already issued more than 10 tenders for alternative cargoes, a move that has amounted to panic buying among some Aramco customers.
It's the various Judeo-American empire slave states that'll pay the price of our policies way before we ever will. We will NEVER stop until we will start paying the price as well.
@americanmajority
Saudi Aramco has informed at least two European refiners that they will receive no crude in October under their long-term supply contracts, citing the damage caused by a drone attack on the East-West, Bloomberg reported on 18 September.
According to people briefed on the decision, the cutoff is not limited to the refiners Aramco has notified so far and applies to all of its European buyers.
These customers typically receive Saudi crude every month under term contracts meant to keep supplies steady.
The cutoff has left European refiners scrambling to replace the lost barrels. Poland's Orlen has already issued more than 10 tenders for alternative cargoes, a move that has amounted to panic buying among some Aramco customers.
It's the various Judeo-American empire slave states that'll pay the price of our policies way before we ever will. We will NEVER stop until we will start paying the price as well.
@americanmajority
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Oil prices declined on Friday after China, following a request from Saudi Arabia, urged Iran to curb attacks by Ansarallah on Saudi oil infrastructure.
Brent crude futures ended the session at $104.87 a barrel, falling 95 cents, or 0.93%. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $100.30 a barrel, down $1.61, or 1.58%.
US retail diesel prices have climbed to a record $6.45 per gallon, according to AAA data, while gasoline is averaging $4.47 per gallon, despite this typically being a period when gas prices are declining.
There you go, this is China. Once you strip away all the copium, this is all China will ever do - help the empire to avoid the consequences of its various wars of aggression. Because selling junk will always be the most important thing to them, no matter how much they virtue signal at the UN meetings.
@americanmajority
Brent crude futures ended the session at $104.87 a barrel, falling 95 cents, or 0.93%. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $100.30 a barrel, down $1.61, or 1.58%.
US retail diesel prices have climbed to a record $6.45 per gallon, according to AAA data, while gasoline is averaging $4.47 per gallon, despite this typically being a period when gas prices are declining.
There you go, this is China. Once you strip away all the copium, this is all China will ever do - help the empire to avoid the consequences of its various wars of aggression. Because selling junk will always be the most important thing to them, no matter how much they virtue signal at the UN meetings.
@americanmajority
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Forwarded from Information Liberation
This is one of the Israel Lobby's top guys (FDD's Mark Dubowitz) writing explicitly in Miriam Adelson's outlet Israel Hayom (aimed at Jews/Israelis) that the goal of "merging" the US and Israel's militaries is to make America dependent on Israel.
The chutzpah is off the charts.
The chutzpah is off the charts.
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Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Zin here:
I very much appreciate Peyton allowing me to post here, considering we have differing opinions on many major issues, but sometimes that makes things more interesting! Anyway, most of my work is on Substack, where Maria and I publish updates on the SMO and geopolitics in general. We work with the Russian journalist Marat Khairullin who gives us a candid look into events and gives an unvarnished perspective of what's happening on the battlefield and in Russia. If you are interested, you can follow here:
https://maratkhairullinarticles.substack.com/
The above clip is from a series called "Welcome, Marat Khairullin!" where Marat discusses the recent visit to Moscow by Kushner and Witkoff.
@americanmajority
I very much appreciate Peyton allowing me to post here, considering we have differing opinions on many major issues, but sometimes that makes things more interesting! Anyway, most of my work is on Substack, where Maria and I publish updates on the SMO and geopolitics in general. We work with the Russian journalist Marat Khairullin who gives us a candid look into events and gives an unvarnished perspective of what's happening on the battlefield and in Russia. If you are interested, you can follow here:
https://maratkhairullinarticles.substack.com/
The above clip is from a series called "Welcome, Marat Khairullin!" where Marat discusses the recent visit to Moscow by Kushner and Witkoff.
@americanmajority
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Oilprice.com
India’s imports of cheaper Russian crude oil have come under scrutiny in recent days after U.S. lawmakers passed a new sanctions bill against Russia’s energy sector.
The “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026,” which authorizes and expands statutory sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran, was signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday.
The law allows the President to potentially impose trade tariffs of up to 100% on countries that are large importers of Russian oil and natural gas.
As one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude oil, India could face tariffs of up to 100% on its goods exported to the United States. Moreover, the potential tariffs could sour trade relations just as New Delhi and Washington have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal for months.
India responded to the U.S. bill, saying it would continue to prioritize its energy security.
India has also made clear “its determination to take all necessary measures to protect its trade and economic interests. Government will work closely with Indian trade and industry bodies to deal with the implications of these developments,” the ministry added.
India’s current dilemma is whether it would need to drastically cut its imports of Russian oil and pay higher prices for alternative supply that would hurt both refiners and consumers, ahead of elections in a few months in several states run by the ruling party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
A delay in the implementation of potential U.S. tariffs or only slight tariffs could be manageable for India, but the possibility of tariffs, now authorized by Congress by law, could damage the months-long efforts to secure a U.S.-India trade deal.
“From the perspective of the trade talks, this new legislation couldn't have come at a worse time,” Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, told Reuters last week.
@americanmajority
India’s imports of cheaper Russian crude oil have come under scrutiny in recent days after U.S. lawmakers passed a new sanctions bill against Russia’s energy sector.
The “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026,” which authorizes and expands statutory sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran, was signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday.
The law allows the President to potentially impose trade tariffs of up to 100% on countries that are large importers of Russian oil and natural gas.
As one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude oil, India could face tariffs of up to 100% on its goods exported to the United States. Moreover, the potential tariffs could sour trade relations just as New Delhi and Washington have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal for months.
India responded to the U.S. bill, saying it would continue to prioritize its energy security.
India has also made clear “its determination to take all necessary measures to protect its trade and economic interests. Government will work closely with Indian trade and industry bodies to deal with the implications of these developments,” the ministry added.
India’s current dilemma is whether it would need to drastically cut its imports of Russian oil and pay higher prices for alternative supply that would hurt both refiners and consumers, ahead of elections in a few months in several states run by the ruling party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
A delay in the implementation of potential U.S. tariffs or only slight tariffs could be manageable for India, but the possibility of tariffs, now authorized by Congress by law, could damage the months-long efforts to secure a U.S.-India trade deal.
“From the perspective of the trade talks, this new legislation couldn't have come at a worse time,” Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, told Reuters last week.
@americanmajority
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🇨🇦 In Canada, as part of the assisted dying system, a grandmother from a nursing home was euthanized, although she had not requested it.
Now, her relatives claim that the doctors who performed the euthanasia took advantage of her grandmother's vulnerable state to carry out the procedure, which, they say, was done without her consent.
https://heartlandernews.com/canadian-grandmother-euthanized-against-her-will-family-says/
@americanmajority
Now, her relatives claim that the doctors who performed the euthanasia took advantage of her grandmother's vulnerable state to carry out the procedure, which, they say, was done without her consent.
https://heartlandernews.com/canadian-grandmother-euthanized-against-her-will-family-says/
@americanmajority
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US intelligence warns Saudi F-35 deal could expose sensitive technology to China
US intelligence officials have warned that a proposed $24 billion sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia could potentially expose sensitive aircraft technology to Chinese espionage, The New York Times reported, citing US officials familiar with internal assessments.
According to the report, intelligence analysts are concerned that China could gain access to F-35 technology through espionage in Saudi Arabia or via Riyadh’s expanding military and security ties with Beijing. A recent Defense Intelligence Agency assessment examined Chinese military access to Saudi bases and the kingdom’s use of Chinese telecommunications equipment, while also questioning whether US and Saudi authorities could adequately secure facilities housing sensitive F-35 systems.
Lol, who cares? It's not like China will do anything with it anyway. Maybe they can incorporate it into their toasters and the shitty cars they're flooding European markets with. That's about it. Or maybe, they can instead "urge" the Saudis not to share anything with them to begin with.
@americanmajority
US intelligence officials have warned that a proposed $24 billion sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia could potentially expose sensitive aircraft technology to Chinese espionage, The New York Times reported, citing US officials familiar with internal assessments.
According to the report, intelligence analysts are concerned that China could gain access to F-35 technology through espionage in Saudi Arabia or via Riyadh’s expanding military and security ties with Beijing. A recent Defense Intelligence Agency assessment examined Chinese military access to Saudi bases and the kingdom’s use of Chinese telecommunications equipment, while also questioning whether US and Saudi authorities could adequately secure facilities housing sensitive F-35 systems.
Lol, who cares? It's not like China will do anything with it anyway. Maybe they can incorporate it into their toasters and the shitty cars they're flooding European markets with. That's about it. Or maybe, they can instead "urge" the Saudis not to share anything with them to begin with.
@americanmajority
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Israeli army seals last road into West Bank village, trapping 47 Palestinian families
On 19 September, Israeli occupation forces trenched over the last remaining road into the Palestinian village of Khirbet Ras al-Ahmar, southeast of Tubas in the northern occupied West Bank, leaving 47 Palestinian families under total siege.
The trench cut off the last remaining route to the village, a single rough path only suitable for livestock and farm tractors, after the Israeli military had spent over two months blocking all other roads, according to resident Thaer Basharat.
Basharat said the stranglehold on the village has been tightening for roughly three years, and the latest closure has turned it into a “cage” hemmed in by trenches, walls, and military zones.
“The 47 families in the village rely on livestock farming and are now unable to bring in their basic necessities or sheep feed,” he said.
@americanmajority
On 19 September, Israeli occupation forces trenched over the last remaining road into the Palestinian village of Khirbet Ras al-Ahmar, southeast of Tubas in the northern occupied West Bank, leaving 47 Palestinian families under total siege.
The trench cut off the last remaining route to the village, a single rough path only suitable for livestock and farm tractors, after the Israeli military had spent over two months blocking all other roads, according to resident Thaer Basharat.
Basharat said the stranglehold on the village has been tightening for roughly three years, and the latest closure has turned it into a “cage” hemmed in by trenches, walls, and military zones.
“The 47 families in the village rely on livestock farming and are now unable to bring in their basic necessities or sheep feed,” he said.
@americanmajority
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Cuba plunges into darkness amid nationwide blackout
Cuba has suffered another nationwide blackout, leaving millions without electricity amid severe fuel shortages and US restrictions on oil supplies. It is at least the sixth major outage the island has experienced since the start of the year.
Under a US embargo for decades, Cuba has faced worsening fuel shortages since Venezuela, previously Havana’s main oil supplier, stopped shipments following the US capture of President Nicolas Maduro in January.
US President Donald Trump subsequently declared a national emergency over Cuba, moving to block oil shipments to the island and threatening tariffs against countries that continued supplying it. Trump has repeatedly said he intends to take Cuba “one way or another,” and described regime change there as a “question of time.”
@americanmajority
Cuba has suffered another nationwide blackout, leaving millions without electricity amid severe fuel shortages and US restrictions on oil supplies. It is at least the sixth major outage the island has experienced since the start of the year.
Under a US embargo for decades, Cuba has faced worsening fuel shortages since Venezuela, previously Havana’s main oil supplier, stopped shipments following the US capture of President Nicolas Maduro in January.
US President Donald Trump subsequently declared a national emergency over Cuba, moving to block oil shipments to the island and threatening tariffs against countries that continued supplying it. Trump has repeatedly said he intends to take Cuba “one way or another,” and described regime change there as a “question of time.”
@americanmajority
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US "Sells" Air Defense Package to Ukraine, Financed by US and Europe...
Billions in weapons have continued to flow from the US to Ukraine despite campaign promises before 2024 elections and political theater afterwards - including pretending the US is "selling" weapons to Ukraine instead of giving them away, but being bought with money given to Ukraine by the US itself and it's European proxies;
In reality, the US proxy war continues against Russia in Ukraine and billions in US tax payers' money is simply being transferred to US arms manufacturers - while the US president pretends it's somehow benefiting America (and not just billionaire business owners);
Same policy, different packaging. Continuity of agenda...
@brianlovethailand
NOTE: The Russians really should hire Berletic to explain shit to them, since they still don't get it.
Billions in weapons have continued to flow from the US to Ukraine despite campaign promises before 2024 elections and political theater afterwards - including pretending the US is "selling" weapons to Ukraine instead of giving them away, but being bought with money given to Ukraine by the US itself and it's European proxies;
In reality, the US proxy war continues against Russia in Ukraine and billions in US tax payers' money is simply being transferred to US arms manufacturers - while the US president pretends it's somehow benefiting America (and not just billionaire business owners);
Same policy, different packaging. Continuity of agenda...
@brianlovethailand
NOTE: The Russians really should hire Berletic to explain shit to them, since they still don't get it.
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Iran War Day 204: Pentagon Says War Has Cost at Least $43.6 Billion
State of the Union: The Washington Post reported that U.S. war deaths exceeded the official Pentagon count, and smoke and flames were observed at Riyadh Airport.
On Friday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) provided Congress with an estimate of the Iran War’s costs. According to CENTCOM, the war has cost $43.6 billion through September 3, with the majority of expenses ($28.1 billion) coming from munitions replacement costs. This figure is likely an underestimate, as it doesn’t appear to include the costs of reopening damaged U.S. facilities in the Mideast or fuel expenses. Although other administration officials have given top-line estimates, this is the first unclassified breakdown of the war’s costs by service and category since hostilities began in February...
This is extremely likely to be an understatement.
@americanmajority
State of the Union: The Washington Post reported that U.S. war deaths exceeded the official Pentagon count, and smoke and flames were observed at Riyadh Airport.
On Friday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) provided Congress with an estimate of the Iran War’s costs. According to CENTCOM, the war has cost $43.6 billion through September 3, with the majority of expenses ($28.1 billion) coming from munitions replacement costs. This figure is likely an underestimate, as it doesn’t appear to include the costs of reopening damaged U.S. facilities in the Mideast or fuel expenses. Although other administration officials have given top-line estimates, this is the first unclassified breakdown of the war’s costs by service and category since hostilities began in February...
This is extremely likely to be an understatement.
@americanmajority
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Russian ballistic missile bombardments have knocked out Ukraine’s three remaining large-scale metallurgical plants across the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, effectively halting 90 percent of the country’s domestic steel manufacturing.
Subsequent strikes have systematically targeted the damaged facilities to prevent repair efforts, including a dawn attack on Thursday, Sept. 17, when two Russian ballistic missiles struck the Zaporizhstal metallurgical complex in Zaporizhzhia, marking the fourth missile strike on that facility in five weeks.
“As of today, [Ukraine] no longer has a steel industry,” Oleksandr Vodoviz, head of the office of the chief executive at Metinvest, told the Financial Times. “They knew everything about the plant, they knew exactly where to hit.”
Vodoviz emphasized that the indefinite idling of the three steel complexes directly imperils the livelihood of more than 15,000 employees.
The shutdown threatens severe macroeconomic repercussions for Ukraine’s wartime economy, depriving the state budget of essential corporate tax revenues and foreign currency earnings generated by industrial exports.
To date, Ukraine has lost 70% of its energy production, its sources of coking coal, and now its steel production. Before 2022, Ukraine was a major steel exporter. Now, there is no "Ukrainian economy" left to speak of. It is a hollowed out shell dependent on handouts.
@americanmajority
Subsequent strikes have systematically targeted the damaged facilities to prevent repair efforts, including a dawn attack on Thursday, Sept. 17, when two Russian ballistic missiles struck the Zaporizhstal metallurgical complex in Zaporizhzhia, marking the fourth missile strike on that facility in five weeks.
“As of today, [Ukraine] no longer has a steel industry,” Oleksandr Vodoviz, head of the office of the chief executive at Metinvest, told the Financial Times. “They knew everything about the plant, they knew exactly where to hit.”
Vodoviz emphasized that the indefinite idling of the three steel complexes directly imperils the livelihood of more than 15,000 employees.
The shutdown threatens severe macroeconomic repercussions for Ukraine’s wartime economy, depriving the state budget of essential corporate tax revenues and foreign currency earnings generated by industrial exports.
To date, Ukraine has lost 70% of its energy production, its sources of coking coal, and now its steel production. Before 2022, Ukraine was a major steel exporter. Now, there is no "Ukrainian economy" left to speak of. It is a hollowed out shell dependent on handouts.
@americanmajority
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As Walls Close In, Zelensky Lashes Out
...Actually, the exuberance phase was short-lived, so we’ve been feeling the crapulence since at least mid-July, when President Volodymyr Zelensky axed the popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Days later, he fired Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and, one day after that, Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Andrii Hnatov.
Wartime presidents don’t strike down their top military leaders when battlefield developments are coming up roses. And following Kiev’s military reshuffle, Russia has only intensified its air attacks, lobbing jet-powered drones at critical infrastructure and firing glide bombs at Ukraine’s eastern strongholds in the strategic “fortress belt.”
Zelensky, just like all the other Europeans including all of Ukraine, are disposable proxies that don't matter to the empire in the slightest.
@americanmajority
...Actually, the exuberance phase was short-lived, so we’ve been feeling the crapulence since at least mid-July, when President Volodymyr Zelensky axed the popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Days later, he fired Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and, one day after that, Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Andrii Hnatov.
Wartime presidents don’t strike down their top military leaders when battlefield developments are coming up roses. And following Kiev’s military reshuffle, Russia has only intensified its air attacks, lobbing jet-powered drones at critical infrastructure and firing glide bombs at Ukraine’s eastern strongholds in the strategic “fortress belt.”
Zelensky, just like all the other Europeans including all of Ukraine, are disposable proxies that don't matter to the empire in the slightest.
@americanmajority
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An F-16 has crashed in the area of the American Spangdahlem Air Base in western Germany; one person was injured, Bild reports.
It reportedly came down on a golf course near the base.
@americanmajority
It reportedly came down on a golf course near the base.
@americanmajority
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Trump unleashes his latest verbal bowel movement to the UN.
He, thinking himself God-Emperor of humanity, claims he will end the war in Ukraine and "make a deal" with Iran or "send them to Hell." Big talk from someone who has been making these claims for years now...
@americanmajority
He, thinking himself God-Emperor of humanity, claims he will end the war in Ukraine and "make a deal" with Iran or "send them to Hell." Big talk from someone who has been making these claims for years now...
@americanmajority
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Trump wants to refer to "artificial intelligence" as "superintelligence" from here on, as "artificial" implies it is fake.
I'd like to see any kind of intelligence from Trump, if that's even possible...
@americanmajority
I'd like to see any kind of intelligence from Trump, if that's even possible...
@americanmajority
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How Saudi Arabia's anti-Houthi strategy crashed and burned
Eleven years after intervening in Yemen's war, Riyadh may be forced to negotiate with Ansar Allah on the group's terms.
For a decade, Saudi Arabia’s Yemen policy has rested on the assumption that time, money and coercive force, patiently and strategically applied, would eventually produce enough leverage to subdue the Houthis, or at least force them into a settlement on Riyadh’s terms.
Over the last two weeks, that assumption has been tested more severely than at any point since 2015, when Saudi Arabia initially launched its military intervention to roll back Houthi control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa. It has not held...
Interesting article.
@americanmajority
Eleven years after intervening in Yemen's war, Riyadh may be forced to negotiate with Ansar Allah on the group's terms.
For a decade, Saudi Arabia’s Yemen policy has rested on the assumption that time, money and coercive force, patiently and strategically applied, would eventually produce enough leverage to subdue the Houthis, or at least force them into a settlement on Riyadh’s terms.
Over the last two weeks, that assumption has been tested more severely than at any point since 2015, when Saudi Arabia initially launched its military intervention to roll back Houthi control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa. It has not held...
Interesting article.
@americanmajority
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