No need to "talk to Putin 🇷🇺 to find out what he wants"—he’s already told American envoys 🇺🇸!

▫️Russia is not prepared to end the war.
▫️Russia opposes any notion of a ceasefire.
▫️Russia has no plans to halt its strikes on Ukraine.
▫️Russia refuses to end the war until it controls the Donbas. For context, it currently controls about 99% of the Luhansk Oblast (a situation that has persisted for three years) and 80% of the Donetsk Oblast (up from 56% in mid-2023).

In 2023, the Russian military controlled 77.66% of the Donbas; today, it controls 89.81%. This means it has seized 12% of the Donbas over the past three years, leaving 11% of the territory—including 6 cities—still outside its control.

-> Furthermore, Russia rejects the idea of ​​Ukraine receiving European security guarantees in the post-war period.

Map @Pouletvolant3

One potential solution to end the Russian 🇷🇺 invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦 would be for the Ukrainian army to withdraw from the Donbas.

We are talking about a heavily fortified territory: six cities, three lines of obstacles immediately behind them, and kilometers of barbed wire in front. The Ukrainians refuse to cede this territory to the Russians (the war there has been ongoing since 2014). Handing over the remaining 11% of the Donbas would leave Ukraine in immediate danger of a Russian offensive toward the center of the country—as the map of the fortifications clearly shows.

In exchange, Moscow has little to offer. I do not believe the Russians would withdraw from southern Ukraine; they might perhaps pull out of the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts in return, but that is not an equivalent trade.

I am very curious to see what will come of the much-discussed "Yalta" of 2026. In any case, it is up to the Ukrainians to decide what is best for them...