These last 5 days, taking advantage of the Starshield speed restriction (which doesn't seem to end), Russia 🇷🇺 sent thousands of drones against Ukraine 🇺🇦

Russia launched a continuous flow of Geran-4/5 drones (blue on the map), as usual, as well as a large number of Geran-2 (yellow), which are slower and flying in large groups. Hundreds of targets were struck in the country, including many civilian ones.

For the first time in months, western Ukraine was heavily targeted with repeated strikes in Lutsk, Kovel, Rivne and other cities. The trend is very worrying, since drones can move nearly everywhere in the country and threaten energy infrastructure, industries and warehouses. I will soon update on the strikes on Kyiv and western Ukraine.

Source of the maps: t.me/StrategicaviationT

Map of Russian 🇷🇺 drones and missiles strikes against Ukraine 🇺🇦 every month of 2026

This summer, Russia concentrated strikes against the eastern and central part of the country. Odesa and Kyiv suffered a lot at the end of the summer. Right now, many strikes are happening in the western side of the country, as Russia is targeting Ukraine's energy facilities.

Main focus every month this year :
▫️January to April : civilian residential (partly from misses) and electrical targets are on top. Russia tried to collapse the energy system.
▫️April to June : fuel, roads and industries take the lead, Russia tried to retaliate to Ukraine's mid-range strikes.
▫️July to October see a rise of attacks against warehouses, roads, railways and ports, while fuel continued to be attacked.
▫️October saw a total switch to energy targets as winter is closing in.

Situation in Dobropilla 🇺🇦/🇷🇺

The situation in the city has recently deteriorated, with Russian forces now being spotted in various neighborhoods and started the first flag videos for their propaganda efforts.

For several weeks, if not months, Russian forces have made repeated attempts to infiltrate the area, utilizing two main routes: one leading to the northeast of the city and another, more recently, to the southwest. Russian forces continue to advance into the southern outskirts, particularly following the capture of Bilytske and Shevchenko, and the "gray zone" has now expanded into parts of the city itself.

The battle for Dobropilia began a little over a month ago, and we now have a clearer picture of the current, real-world situation. While Ukrainian forces still hold the city, the presence of Russian infiltrators is becoming increasingly apparent. The situation is broadly similar to that of Kostiantynivka a year ago (the city is still disputed).

However, Ukraine retains a defensive advantage, as it still controls the flanks, supported by defensive lines that protect the rear of the city, as well as its eastern and northern sides.

With autumn and winter approaching, the Russians are under pressure to reach the city, as infiltration will become significantly more difficult once the leaves fall, especially given the defensive lines, trenches, and barbed wire established by the Ukrainians.

Right now, the battle for Dobropilia is the primary ongoing engagement; the Russians have committed massive manpower, while the Ukrainian side, defended by the National Guard’s Azov Corps, is fighting for every square kilometer, while their strategic reserves remain held behind for now.

The geography of Russian 🇷🇺 strikes in Ukraine 🇺🇦:

As the number of targets hit has surged (from 666 in January to 1,572 in September), the geographical focus of Russia’s strike campaign—involving one-way-attack (OWA) drones and missiles—against Ukraine has shifted.

▫️Between January and June, the priority was on areas near the front line.
▫️Since July, there has been a noticeable increase in strikes targeting Kyiv, Odesa, and the western regions.

This map draws on data published via Russian Telegram channels—information I have been able to corroborate through my own work in geolocating the impact sites.

Since mid-September, strikes have occurred almost daily in the western part of the country, with a primary focus on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Yesterday, Ukraine 🇺🇦 approved a fortification plan for the country, with a target date of 2028. The construction of extensive defensive lines will continue.

As a reminder, the lines visible in the photo below are already complete in the eastern part of the country. New lines of this type are currently being prepared in the north and northeast to protect Ukraine against Russian offensives.

These lines—consisting of three anti-tank ditches, "dragon's teeth," and extensive barbed and concertina wire—are extremely difficult to cross, which increases the number of casualties on the Russian side.

2/ 40 days later, let's come back to the fact that I "revealed" the information, which sparked criticism :

-I did not reveal the offensive; there were already numerous rumors and posts circulating online.
-A number of Russian and pro-Russian accounts had shared a great deal of information starting August 15, indicating that they were already aware of it.
-Most of the offensive operations—including the effort to cut off the salient—had already concluded by September 9; I used only information dating from August 25 or earlier.
-The offensive was initially slated to be announced before the end of August, but the publication date was pushed back by two weeks following further successes (which I did not cover).
-In reality, the criticism is primarily directed at the fact that I did not follow the official release schedule (I acknowledge that adhering to such a schedule is part of the units' duties).

Now, I would like to address the massive gaps in information, whether on the part of recognized analysts, think tanks, or media outlets.

Barely any of them had foreseen the operation; most only discovered it the day I published my findings. Only a handful of volunteers, researchers, individuals, osinters, and experts were truly in the know. Others possessed only fragments of information. This highlights the extent to which the information available to us regarding the war in Ukraine actually originates from a very small number of independent actors.

Furthermore, I must point out the repeated theft of my maps that day—often without any attribution—as well as the vague or imprecise way in which some cited their sources. This operation serves as evidence that, while operational secrecy can never be absolute, it is nonetheless effective at concealing a significant portion of information. Only a select few analysts have access to such data and control the narrative.

5/ The scope of the operation is, in reality, somewhat broader than what was reported back in September. Since then, the Ukrainians have continued their push and advancement toward the Zherebets River.

They have reached it at several points, and Russian forces no longer control any territory west of this river—with the exception of the forest east of Lyman. Parts of the foresteast of Lyman, as well as Zarichne and some nearby villages remain in the "gray zone," but despite various rumors, I have not been able to confirm that the Ukrainians have actually crossed the river.

It is quite notable how effectively the Ukrainians have cleared the forests east of Lyman; this has fully secured the city, which now lies well behind the front lines and can therefore be resupplied.

Furthermore, it allows the Ukrainians to position their artillery within these forests to defend Sloviansk, while also enabling them to cross the Siverskyi-Donets River without being under the constant threat of FPV drones.

6/ South of the Donets river, the Ukrainians launched operations—coinciding with the arrival of General Drapati to lead the Ukrainian forces—aimed at pushing back the Russians and eliminating enemy infiltrations.

At this stage, it is clear that these operations have resulted in the recapture of territory and the clearing of certain infiltrated areas; however, I prefer to maintain a broad "gray zone" designation for now, given that many Russian positions still remain.

Thus, on both sides of the Donets River, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps—now under the command of the "Center" army group—has succeeded in securing the northern flank of the Donbas and continues efforts to stabilize the situation east of Sloviansk, as autumn and winter gradually set in.

What can be expected going forward, and what are the possibilities for the coming weeks and months?

For the time being, I believe the Ukrainians will focus on consolidating their gains and adopting a defensive posture. First, they must secure their gains—notably around Lyman—and continue clearing the forest east of that city, while also securing the eastern approach to Sloviansk, particularly near Mykolaivka.

From there, they need to organize a coherent and solid defensive line between Sloviansk, Lyman, and Borova. At the same time, the Ukrainians—specifically under the command of the "Centre" group—must consolidate the front around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

This is General Biletsky’s priority. Future offensive actions could take place during the winter or even in the spring, depending on weather conditions. I do not believe the Ukrainians will cross the Zherebets River. They hold highly advantageous defensive positions; for the Russians, crossing would be extremely difficult, as they would have to navigate a series of about ten dams along the Zherebets River and its associated lakes—a maneuver that would leave them highly vulnerable.

The Ukrainians will therefore need to hold these lines, and they are likely to do so far more effectively than when they suddenly lost ground over a year and a half ago.

As for a future offensive, I could imagine the Ukrainians pushing north from Borova toward Kupiansk, with the aim of shifting the front line away from the Borova sector—and perhaps even reaching the southern outskirts of Kupiansk, thereby freeing the city from some of the ongoing infiltrations. Naturally, this would be carried out in coordination with the Ukrainian forces stationed further to the north.

Thank you for following this new analysis regarding the final information about Vivaldi opeation.

Now that the northern flank of Donbas is secured, at least for some time, the focus will concentrate on the southern flank, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.

What Budanov 🇺🇦 says here is highly significant, as it implicitly details Russia’s 🇷🇺 strategy to keep the war going. t.me/Kyrylo_Budanov_Official/922

As the map shows, Russia claims control over 6,500 km² of territory that is actually held by Ukraine. This area includes five cities—Kupiansk, Lyman, Kostiantynivka, Dobropillia, and Orikhiv—that remain partially or entirely under Ukrainian control.

The areas highlighted in yellow are those Moscow claims to control (a false assertion, as has been proven many times over). In the event of negotiations, Russia would likely stall any progress by demanding that the Ukrainians adhere to its claimed line. A ceasefire would also be easily exploited; Russia could claim that Ukrainian forces are firing on Russian soldiers—even when those soldiers might be 10–15 km behind the actual front line—to justify violating the agreement.

Day after day, the Ukrainians reiterate their readiness for negotiations, call for a ceasefire along current lines, and propose truces regarding aerial attacks. Each time, Russia refuses or attempts to manipulate the negotiation process with lies.

This map serves as evidence that Russia has no intention of ending the war. We could travel to Moscow as often as we like and speak with Putin as frequently as necessary, but as long as he believes he can win, he will continue. This is why I am deeply pessimistic; I believe the war could drag on for years unless a decisive breakthrough is achieved. Short of forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw from their own sovereign territory—something they have no intention of doing—there is little that will bring this war to an end.

10 month after the fall of Hulialpole, a tactically important town on the southern front, Russian 🇷🇺 forces finally secured the railway west of it

Heavily fortified, this railway line was disputed for months and Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces always stayed on the fortified bunkers.

Map from deepstate_ua