@clement_molin
Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
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@clement_molin
Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

Poulet volant (@Pouletvolant3)

Guerre d'Ukraine - Juin 2026

Synthèse, de fin de mois, des superficies occupées par l'armée russe dans les oblasts d'Ukraine.

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine
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— https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/2072347366103937460#m
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@clement_molin
The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.

Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.

Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.

While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.

Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.
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@clement_molin
This initial victory—achieved in the summer—does not appear to offer any prospect of a second victory within the year. In this sector, Russian forces remain some distance from Drujkivka; the Ukrainians have had time to prepare their defenses and reorganize their forces, and the Russian troops do not control the flanks near Kostiantynivka, preventing them from threatening the route to Oleksijevo-Drujkivka.

Furthermore, the Ukrainians still control a large area west of the city as well as positions in Chasiv Yar to the east, which limits the scope of the current Russian offensive. Further fighting is to be expected in both directions, as evidenced by recent Russian strikes.
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@clement_molin
The most concerning offensive is currently taking place in the Sloviansk sector, marked by a Russian push toward Oleksandrivka and deep Russian infiltrations—particularly beyond the canal—as they close in on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban area. Russian forces are intensifying strikes, including drone and air attacks, which disrupt logistics and affect the many civilians present in both cities. The Russian objective is to seize control of Rai Oleksandrivka—located just east of Sloviansk—to enable the bombardment of the urban area and cut off supply lines behind the city.

While Ukrainian forces are still putting up some resistance east of Rai Oleksandrivka, Russian forces are advancing; indeed, this is the direction where they have made the most significant gains since January, advancing over 12 kilometers following the capture of Siversk. Russian forces will soon secure control of the high ground, allowing them to threaten the Sloviansk urban area. This offensive is supported by extensive air strikes, as I will demonstrate in an upcoming analysis.
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@clement_molin
It is urgent for the Ukrainians to respond, particularly to protect Mykolaivka and the water reservoir east of Sloviansk, especially since several supply routes leading to Lyman pass through this area.
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@clement_molin
One area of ​​particular concern over the last six months has been the sector around Hulialpole; Russian forces continue a slow advance, yet after six months, it is evident they have failed to maintain the same rate of progress seen in the latter half of 2025.

Having secured full control of the area west of Hulialpole, the Russians can now use the city as a logistics hub, but frequent and precise Ukrainian drone strikes on access roads are complicating their logistics. Russian attempts to cross the Haichur river and establish a foothold beyond the railway line in surrounding villages have met with only partial success; while numerous videos over the past six months have shown Russian flags in various villages, none of them are currently under Russian control.

The Ukrainians maintain fortified positions—notably bunkers—along the railway and continue to hold bunkers on their 2024 defensive line. For their part, the Russians control houses in several villages and continue to infiltrate as deeply as possible—sometimes 5, 10, or even 15 km behind the front line—without managing to secure lasting territorial gains.

The Russians are advancing furthest further south, around Zaliznychne and Huliaipilsky, where Ukrainian fortifications are weakest; for Moscow, seizing these Ukrainian strongholds and severing supply lines—supported by over 1,000 airstrikes per month—is essential to launching a more sustained advance toward the main defensive line, the first of five lines protecting Zaporizhzhia.
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@clement_molin
In the Pokrovsk sector, fighting has been prolonged around the town of Rodynske; according to the latest geolocated videos, combat is still ongoing in the western part of the town.

The Russian offensive toward Dobropilla is advancing slowly—particularly from the outskirts of the town—with continuous infiltrations over the past six months aimed at key Ukrainian supply routes. The Russians face extensive and heavily reinforced Ukrainian fortifications in the area, and the offensive has slowed significantly compared to the push made during the first three months of the year. This direction has become secondary after the failure to attack Dobropilla and the good defense by Azov on this direction.
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@clement_molin
In Lyman, as I have already explained, the Russian offensive is continuing with infiltrations into the city from the east; however, the Russians do not control the city—despite the presence of flags—as evidenced by recent videos showing Russian strikes on most of the city's neighborhoods.

The Russians are heavily targeting the logistical routes leading to the city—particularly the single crossing over the river—but have so far failed to gain control of the neighborhoods and the supply lines leading to it.
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