very slow. The priority is to protect the borders as well as the depth, Suwalki corridor and, obviously, prioritise airdefense and anti-drone defense.
— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2080204893902553274#m
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@clement_molin
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a large mechanized assault in the Dobropilla-Drujkivka area

Two armoured columns reinforced by multiple unarmoured vehicles from the 90th tank division and the 41st/8th CAA attempted to breakthrough in the Shakove area.

As you can see in the quoted tweet, this area has been subjected to heavy airstrike campaign for more than one month, while it remained a secondary direction until may. You can see here in white the recent airstrikes impacts in this direction, the same one where Russia obtained a breakthrough last year. Azov 1st Corps, which has been successfully defending the area for nearly a year managed to prevent any armoured breakthrough, showing multiple destroyed vehicles and pontoon bridges. However, infiltrations are slowly getting more frequent and Russian soldiers are often recorded behind the current grey zone, despite the absence of visual proof. As you can see, Russian armies in this direction are not doing too much PR videos with flags, which is why we have fewer flag videos. This area is right now the most strategic of the Donbas, Russia absolutely needs to control it to be able to reach Dobropilla or Drujkivka to have a fire control over the roads leading to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Why did Russia launch a mechanized assault here ? The main reason is how difficult it is to get there. We've recently seen videos of an impressive number of logistical and assault unarmoured vehicles destroyed on roads leading to here. This area is one of the deadliest, with older Ukrainian fortifications complicating any movement. Launching a mechanized assault helps to bring hundreds of men close to the front (even if 150 die and 150 manage to reach those positions, all of them will be able to assault and infiltrate further in the coming weeks).

As I said a month ago, I was expecting a large scale assault here, in order to unblock the front leading to Drujkivka and Dobropilla. As Russian soldiers are infiltrating and consolidating into Kosiantynivka, they will slowly manage to take full control over the city (maybe until autumn, the same way it happened in Toretsk), now the priority for them is to prepare the next battle, for Drujkivka.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOFAjwdXYAAdHIy.jpg
Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

Here are my guesses of where Russia will push in the next months. These areas are highly targeted, and Russia is always targeting heavily an area where there is good resistance but where they need to take it.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHMOPO61W8AE_Tue.jpg

— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2072664641386226075#m
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@clement_molin
About the destroyed vehicles in this area :

Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

When people ask why strikes on logistics (both Ukrainians 🇺🇦 and Russians 🇷🇺) matter, there is an obvious response :

No one will lack vehicles, the issue is about supplies, like in this video on the Dobropilla axis, where there are 62 destroyed Russian vehicles on a 300 meters road.

Each time, supplies are not coming to frontline units, soldiers are dying or being wounded and roads are being obstructed. Is this enough ? Not yet, but russian progress has significantly slowed down in many areas where there are no cities to hide supplies and vehicles.

Are the Ukrainians also suffering from these strikes ? Yes, of course, but first, they have fewer troops on the frontline, they are using more UGVs and Russian FPV drones are not going often that far from the frontline.

Video
https://twitter.com/pic/amplify_video_thumb%2F2075563947617378304%2Fimg%2FapOZZviO3mKX75aY.jpg

— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2075566541328797862#m
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@clement_molin
Example of some existing and known kill zone in this area :

Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

I put on a map a video showing 60 russian 🇷🇺 bodies on a 700 meter road along the Kazanny Torets river near the village of Boikivka.

This road is only 1 500 meters from the infamous Novotoretske village with the hundreds dead russian soldiers.

🧵1/7 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHDxRfm_bkAEphH6.jpg

— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2034603491373547722#m
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@clement_molin
Again, the strategic town of Barah, north of El Obeid in central Sudan 🇸🇩, is back in the Sudanese armed forces control

For the past year and a half, it has been at the center of back-and-forth battles between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces. As the war drags on, the Kordofan region and El Obeid in particular is fiercely contested.

The army controls the city and the road leading east (under drone fire), while the RSF control the roads to the south, west, and north including the route to Khartoum, which is currently being fought over. The city is not directly threatened, but battle are regular in the region.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOFnh8pXYAApSe9.jpg
BodyBèn (@FCB6O)

في إطار عملياتها العسكرية اليوم بمحور شمال كردفان، القوات المسلحة السودانية تتقدم وتفرض سيطرتها على مدينة بارا بولاية شمال كردفان بعد دحر مليشيا الدعم السريع.

يبدو أننا أمام ملامح عملية عسكرية كبرى لتطهير طريق الصادرات وإعادة ربط مدينة الأبيض بـ أم درمان.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOFfB_DWQAAhbVN.jpg

— https://twitter.com/FCB6O/status/2081048999927189976#m
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@clement_molin
Who controls Kostiantynivka 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ?

There is a very big debate to know who really controls the city of Kostiantynivka, in the Donbas region.

Many maps are showing the city as Russian controled, which in my opinion is not true, as I will explain it here.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOGECeCWsAEleig.jpg
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@clement_molin
The situation will continue to worsen, Russian flaggers will appear in villages and towns north of the city and Ukrainian troops will slowly leave their positions in the city.

No one is encircled, no one controls anything except basements and buildings.
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@clement_molin
Thank you for following the situation with me.

If you want to debate with me about the situation, I will only reply to people showing me proofs (that I'm wrong) or arguments of why my methodology is incorrect.

Saying that this or that person said the contrary won't be enough.
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@clement_molin
Après avoir terminé les fortifications dans l'est et le sud du pays, l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 renforce désormais des directions secondaires, notamment le nord du pays.

S'il n'y a pas de menace actuelle pour les oblasts de Kyiv ou Tchernihiv, les zones frontalières sont actuellement en plein processus de fortification. Dans la direction de Tchernobyl, les ukrainiens préparent une troisième ligne de défense, tandis qu'ils renforcent les défenses de Chernihiv, au nord-est de Kyiv.

Dans les prochaines semaines, une ligne continue entre Zaporijia, Kramatorsk, Izium, Kharkiv, Soumy et Chernihiv sera complété. Ces défenses sont une garantie future, alors que le conflit se concentre sur un front de 550 km entre Zaporijia et Koupiansk ou 680 km entre Zaporijia et Kharkiv.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOJ3NoNXgAA2-2P.jpg
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@clement_molin
The Sudanese Armed Forces 🇸🇩 secured their biggest victory in a year and a half today, reopening the strategic route between the capital, Khartoum, and El Obeid.

The Rapid Support Forces, backed and armed by the UAE, have been pushed back.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOKx2zyX0AAXxqm.jpg
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