@clement_molin
Depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine 🇺🇦/🇷🇺, la Mer Noire est restée au cœur des enjeux militaires et économiques du conflit.

Ces dernières semaine, la guerre s'est intensifiée dans cet espace stratégique, entre mer d'Azov, Crimée et Odessa.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOu2zR3XwAAFsap.jpg
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@clement_molin
La Mer Noire est une zone géographique stratégique, au cœur des rivalités de puissance, depuis des décennies.

Dans le cadre de la guerre en Ukraine, elle est un espace en guerre, notamment autour de la stratégique péninsule de Crimée, base avancée de la Russie dans la région. L'évolution du conflit dans la région ne sera probablement pas décisive pour la principale guerre, qui se déroule entre Zaporijjia et Kharkiv, en passant par le Donbass, mais restera un point important à suivre.
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@clement_molin
Cette carte est le fruit d'un long travail pour cartographier les frappes russes et ukrainiennes en 2026.

Merci d'avoir suivi !

17/17
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@clement_molin
As expected, Ukraine 🇺🇦 is slightly expanding fortification work on the northern border with Belarus 🇧🇾

Work is ongoing in Chernihiv, with multiple lines protecting the city as well as in Chernobyl. On the eastern side, fortifications are much more advanced since Russian border is closer. There are currently 6 layers of fortifications between Russia and Chernihiv.

On the western side, the main work ongoing is the clearing of part of the large forests, in order to put continuous fortified lines. There is one advantage of digging in this region : Belarus is not part of the conflict, so the fortifications can start directly at the border. Previous lines are being expanded and new ones, farther from the border are being created. Russian breakthrough from the border to Hostomel won't happen next time.

Why these fortifications here and now ? Since fortifications in eastern Ukraine have mainly been completed, other secondary directions are being covered, including Kyiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro or Chernihiv.

What is Belarus doing ? I didn't see any recent work on the Belarussian side, despite the fact that multiple roads and paths have been prepared in the Prypiat forest since 2022. Belarus is not a threat for Ukraine, the only threat is the possibility Russia can use again Belarus territory to launch an offensive in the north or the west of the country, which is highly unlikely before any new mobilization on the Russian side.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOvvKl0WAAAZoc5.jpg
Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

Après avoir terminé les fortifications dans l'est et le sud du pays, l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 renforce désormais des directions secondaires, notamment le nord du pays.

S'il n'y a pas de menace actuelle pour les oblasts de Kyiv ou Tchernihiv, les zones frontalières sont actuellement en plein processus de fortification. Dans la direction de Tchernobyl, les ukrainiens préparent une troisième ligne de défense, tandis qu'ils renforcent les défenses de Chernihiv, au nord-est de Kyiv.

Dans les prochaines semaines, une ligne continue entre Zaporijia, Kramatorsk, Izium, Kharkiv, Soumy et Chernihiv sera complété. Ces défenses sont une garantie future, alors que le conflit se concentre sur un front de 550 km entre Zaporijia et Koupiansk ou 680 km entre Zaporijia et Kharkiv.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOJ3NoNXgAA2-2P.jpg

— https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/2081358767954764211#m
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@clement_molin
Une vidéo que personne ne veut voir 🇷🇺

Dès l'âge de 16 ans, des milliers de jeunes russes rejoignent des lycées et écoles militaires ou ils sont formés à la guerre.

C'est toute une génération d'étudiants qui se militarise et se forme, notamment dans le domaine des drones. Des dizaines de milliers de jeunes russes se préparent pour la prochaine guerre, avec tous les enseignements de la guerre actuelle.

Ces jeunes ne seront pas forcément déployés immédiatement en Ukraine, à moins que la guerre ne dure plusieurs années de plus. Ils seront le cœur de la future armée russe, qui sera évidemment plus forte que celle d'avant guerre, avec des technologie et une doctrine différente.

Cette militarisation accrue de la société commence dès l'école, avec des formations sur le maniement des armes, des cours de patriotisme et un encouragement à rejoindre les centres de formations, comme celui de Rubikon.

Video
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@clement_molin
Beaucoup semblent ne pas comprendre. Je n'évoque pas le fait que ces écoles existent, évidemment, qu'elles existent partout dans le monde, j'observe juste l'explosion de leur nombre en Russie ces derniers mois.
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@clement_molin
In recent weeks, Russian 🇷🇺 forces have made progress on the Kharkiv front, along the border with Ukraine 🇺🇦

Supported by significant aerial preparation, including hundreds of FAB strikes, Russian forces have continued and expanded their infiltration zones in at least four directions.

Russian forces have entered Kozacha Lopan, northwest of Kharkiv, with a series of clashes occurring between Russian infiltrators and Ukrainian soldiers in recent weeks.

Following the capture of Vovchansk, Russian infiltrations are continuing south of the town, particularly within the area's extensive forests, with the aim of securing crossing points over the river that flows through the town and serves as a natural barrier.

Further east, Russian forces are crossing the border, infiltrating the forests, and then attempting to cross the same river while pushing southward. In both instances, the Russian army is attempting to reach Bilyi Kolodyaz, the Ukrainian logistics hub in the region, which has recently been subjected to intense FAB bombardment.

Finally, Russian infiltrations are continuing further east, this time towards Chorne, with the goal of threatening the Ukrainian presence further north along the border. Intense aerial preparation has also been observed in this area over the past few weeks.

I believe that in this sector, the 11th Army Corps and the 6th Combined Arms Army are executing a maneuver to widen the buffer zone along the border. A push toward Veliky Burluk or Kupiansk appears unrealistic at this stage.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOz1u6fWAAASZe-.jpg
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@clement_molin
The UAE 🇦🇪 foreign policy is very interesting, especially when we look at their investment policy in Africa

In 10 years, the UAE became the 1st Gulf investor in the region. The country is also at the top positions of world direct investors, often in front of many traditional powers, depending on the different counts.

Where are they investing ?
🔹Eastern Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda...)
🔹Central Africa (DRC, Angola, Gabon...)
🔹Western Africa (Guinea, Mali, Nigeria...)
🔹Northern Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Egypt...)

What are their priorities ?
🔹Agricultural lands
🔹Ports
🔹Mining industry, in particular gold
🔹Defense (especially with RSF in Sudan)
🔹Financial investments

This strategy of financial and direct investments is making the UAE one of the most influential states in Africa, which also goes with the UAE strategy in Sudan and Ethiopia in recent years.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHO0vIIvW8AAyUBz.jpg
Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli)

🚨🌍 The UAE has become the Gulf's dominant investor in Africa.

This chart shows a remarkable shift over the past decade.

🇦🇪 The UAE now accounts for the vast majority of Gulf foreign direct investment in Africa, overtaking Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain combined.

This isn't just about capital.

It is a long-term strategy built around:

⚓ Ports and logistics
🛢️ Energy and critical minerals
🌾 Food security
🏗️ Infrastructure and industrial zones

The result is a growing network stretching from the Red Sea to the Atlantic, giving the UAE increasing influence over some of the world's most important trade and energy corridors.

The UAE is positioning itself at the center of future global trade flows.
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHOvL3oSXEAAtH_0.png

— https://twitter.com/jackprandelli/status/2083983514039459842#m
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