Clément Molin

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@clement_molin
And the latest here :
https://twitter.com/pic/media%2FHPi7yrDWIAA9SJi.png
Clément Molin (@clement_molin)

For the past six months, the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 army has been on the offensive along a 50-kilometer-wide front, gradually retaking villages lost the previous year.

With no official statements and very few videos available, little is known about this "offensive." I have therefore gathered as much information as possible to discuss it.

In 2025, the Russian army doubled its rate of advance compared to 2024. Yet, it was not in the Donbas that they were advancing the most. Very early in the year, they seized Velyka Novosilka and pushed north toward Komar and west toward Huliaipole. By the year's end, the situation for Ukraine was critical: defensive lines facing south had been overrun from the east, and the Russian army was steadily closing in on Zaporizhzhia, a city of 800,000 inhabitants.

After the capture of Huliaipole, everyone expected Pokrovsk'e, Ternuvate (already infiltrated at the time), and then Orikhiv to fall, placing the Russian army at the gates of Zaporizhzhia by the end of the year. Yet, seven months later, the situation remained unchanged; the Russians are still stalled west of Huliaipole. Worse, they have lost significant territory further north, bringing a halt to this offensive, which, while secondary to the main Donbas campaign, had nonetheless committed a massive force, including five armies and an army corps.

🔸So, what happened?

It began in February, when several air-assault brigades repositioned to the region, launched an armored assault under cover of fog, deploying their infantry into contested villages, often behind the initial Russian infiltrators. The villages were methodically cleared, and Ukrainian soldiers began infiltrating southward themselves. In March, they were positioned east and west of Uspenivka, blocking Russian attempts to advance toward Pokrovske and Ternuvate.

In response to this offensive, the Russian army sends several naval infantry brigades and divisions, as well as the 68th Army Corps, as reinforcements.

Starting in April, air assault brigades repositioned further north with the mission of advancing on Komar. The goal of this redeployment was to prevent the 90th Tank Division from shifting its assets toward Dobropilla. There was no mechanized offensive this time, as the terrain, specifically the presence of several rivers, most notably the Vovtcha, precluded it. Instead, small Ukrainian infantry groups managed to gradually infiltrate as far as the next river, the Mokri Yali. It is important to understand that, despite having been in the area for at least eight months, Russian forces had been unable to consolidate their positions; a network of rivers complicated logistics, and the small size of the villages made it impossible to concentrate large numbers of troops.

Consequently, the Ukrainians were able to advance relatively stealthily behind enemy lines, reaching the Mokri Yali River. A strict information blackout was imposed in the area. Apart from a single video (since deleted) showing Ukrainian troops raising a flag over a liberated village, the Ukrainians released nothing regarding an operation that had already been underway for three months. For their part, the Russians continued to obscure the situation: the Vostok Group released only videos that were difficult to geolocate and persisted in sending "suicide" flag-bearers troops, who would reach Iskra and raise the Russian flag, creating an illusion of control.

On the map, I have roughly depicted the situation as it has stood over the last few weeks, relying primarily on a handful of geolocated videos, satellite imagery showing air and artillery strikes, and scattered social media statements. Simply put, little is known about the actual state of the front, other than the fact that Ukrainian forces are at the gates of [...]

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