All day, Russia launched a large number of Geran-4 jet-drones to Kyiv, following 2 main roads, one coming from Donetsk airport and one coming from the north, along the border with Belarus. Geran-2 drones are much fewer and concentrated on the frontline. t.me/Strategicaviat

Tonight, an ammunition depot was hit west of Kyiv by a Geran drone. Remember that it's not the first time such event happens this summer.

Multiple warehouses continue to be attacked in Kyiv suburbs, after Brovary and Boryspil, it was the time for Vyshneve.

For Ukraine, it's very worrying that Russian drones are able to fly in the sky of the capital city to scout for targets and assess the results of previous strikes.

Despite fewer drone launchs this month, Russia increased the use of Geran-4 that are much more precise and more difficult to destroy. Here, some videos of strikes on Kyiv, filmed from the drones themselves, which is a worrying trend ahead of next winter.

I have something very important for Ukraine's military and air-defense teams, since I know where some of the air-defense systems are located : With Geran drones flying with their cameras, it will be very easy to target air-defense systems, including Patriot launchers...

At the same time, both gas infrastructure (white) and oil infrastructure (red, including gas stations, oil storage and tanks) have been relentlessly hit. This complicates Russia's logistic situation, since most of the gas stations have no fuel and cities no electricity.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to hit air-defense systems, as well as radars and electronic warfare equipements, including inside Russia.

Railway logistics continue to be targeted (all connexions in the south continue to be disrupted due to the destruction of bridges. Road logistics (trucks and vehicles) continue to be targeted at a regular pace with mid-range drones. I will soon update my map, but the numbers from screenshots remain similar for the 3rd consecutive month.

These mid-range strikes continue despite fewer attention. Their effect is important on logistics and energy capacities, they however need to be scaled to have a significant impact on Donbas offensive. I'm working on a better mean to update my maps and have detailed statistics for Ukrainian strikes the same way I'm doing for Russian strikes.

I already started as you can see here with detailed examples, but it still requires a lot of time.

In the next few days, the results of the Lyman "counter-attack" should be announced by various pro-ukrainian 🇺🇦 media outlet

The operation is still ongoing, but the most important was done. OPSEC was very well conducted and managed to avoid any attention on the operation, which means Russian command didn't send any reinforcement at the crucial moment 2 months ago (which were obviously needed). Now, it is too late to save anything. Many Russian mappers started updating there map (mainly with old information).

All the maps I have seen for now on the situation are partially or totally wrong. The dates of offensive, the main axes and secondary ones are often not mapped correctly, as well as the current situation (I've seen some good analysis on Russian Telegram chanels recently). Approximately 200 km2 (or maybe more, fighting is ongoing) that were under Russian control are currently lost, with a part of those controled by Ukraine.

This is a big blow for the Kremlin, since it will further complicate the offensive on Lyman and Izium and buy time to defend Sloviansk. Since the 3rd AC is now in charge of Sloviansk defense, it already seems the situation can improve, after months of a very difficult situation. This city has favorable ground to be defended, securing a Borova-Lyman-Mykolaivka line is thus very important to protect the Sloviansk-Izium road, one of the best for logistics in to the city.

OPSEC has not been lifted, but examples such as this picture shows that it will soon be. I prepared a long text to post a thread with the information I have. I still need to clarify some other things about this offensive.

Geran-4 attack on Kyiv right now, again, again, again for the 3rd consecutive day

Обстановка по реактивним "Гераням" станом на зараз. Усі у бік Київщини.

2/2 J'ai rassemblé quelques vidéos du conflit, avec des frappes de drones Houthis d'abord, contre l'infanterie yéménite et un char saoudien, puis les compilations de frappes de l'armée yéménite, qui font beaucoup de dégâts aux rebelles Houthis sur le front de Marib. L'utilisation du drone a des fins militaires est vraiment différente suivant les conflits. La dernière fois, nous avions vu l'impréparation israélienne face aux FPV (en particulier à fibre optique) du Hezbollah, cette fois, nous observons un conflit ou le drone est omniprésent depuis longtemps dans sa version kamikaze de taille moyenne ou grande (côté Houthis pour mener des frappes contre l'Arabie Saoudite), navale (exemple d'un drone naval Houthis frappé dans la seconde vidéo) et les drones MALE (américains, saoudiens, émiratis...). Mais le petit drone, le FPV et la technique du "drone drop" étaient très peu visibles.

Au Yémen🇾🇪, l'essort du "drone drop" comme nouvelle stratégie dans la guerre civile

Avec la reprise des affrontements ces dernières semaines, les armées yéménites/saoudiennes et les houthis ont publié les résultats d'une campagne de frappe sans précédent.

Si les bombardements par "drone drop" ne constituent plus la majorité des frappes en Ukraine (alors qu'ils l'étaient en 2022-2023), on remarque une différenciation assez intéressante. Au Yémen, la faiblesse des systèmes de guerre electronique et le manque de moyens pour produire massivement les drones FPV donnent lieu à une favorisation de ces frappes, qui permettent de préserver le drone. En Ukraine, ce genre de frappe a lieu avec des bombardiers lourds, comme les Vampire, qui sont très efficaces et emportent de nombreuses munitions lourdes (parfois des obus de 152/155 mm.

1/2 Aujourd'hui, la France 🇫🇷 et la Suède 🇸🇪 ont signé un accord-cadre de défense bilatéral et la vente de 4 frégate FDI (équipés de missiles jamais exportés jusque là...)

Ce n'est pas anodin, quelques mois après l'achat par la France de 2 avions de surveillance aérienne GlobalEye (Saab) à la Suède.

C'est l'exemple parfait que la défense européenne peut fonctionner, avec cette excellente relation entre Paris et Stockholm. J'observe avec enthousiasme comment nous n'avons pas traité la Suède avec la condescendance de "nous sommes le gros, vous êtes le petit" qui est habituellement réservé à ces Etats d'Europe Centrale, Orientale ou Scandinave. Si la coopération ne fonctionne pas avec l'Allemagne, on peut toujours mener des projets avec d'autres.

La question centrale que la diplomatie et la défense française doivent se poser, c'est, "qu'offrons nous en retour".

2/2 C'est à dire que nous souhaitons exporter nos armements en Europe, mais il faut montrer que ce n'est pas que dans un sens (achat des GlobalEye) et que nous offrons avec, la sécurité et la dissuasion, habituellement réservée à Washington.

C'est exactement la dynamique enclenchée avec la Suède. On parle un peu de la possibilité d'une coopération pour un avion de chasse avec la Suède, même si je reste sceptique de l'intérêt pour eux, notamment puisqu'il nous faut un avion capable d'apponter sur un porte-avion, mais cela témoigne d'une relation excellente entre les deux pays.

Last night, Russia launched another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine. Missiles launches:

~20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Bryansk City.

~6 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base

~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Manturovo, Kursk Oblast.

~2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.

~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles launched by Su-30/34 aircraft near Crimea.

-----------------------

Total missiles launched:

~22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
~6 Kalibr cruise missiles
~4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles

~34 missiles in total.

-----------------------

Ukrainian air defence work:

As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to shoot down a *minimum* of 3 Kalibrs and 2 Iskander-M/S-400s.

-----------------------

The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian military targets in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. The following was targeted:

"West Gate" logistics depot in Stoyanka, Kyiv Oblast (50.44421, 30.23221) by Iskander-Ms.

Darnytsia Railway Depot (50.44040, 30.67252) in eastern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms.

Odesa Port (46.50300, 30.72466) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.

Chornomorsk Port (46.31710, 30.65900) by S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.

Unknown target in southern Kyiv by Iskander-Ms/Zircons

Unknown target(s) in/near Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.

Unknown target(s) in/near Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast, by Iskander-Ms/Zircons.

Unknown target near Boyarka, Kyiv Oblast, by Kalibrs.

Unknown target near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD

Unknown target near Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, by a Kh-31PD.

-----------------------

Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches. These numbers may be adjusted in the coming hours as more information comes available.