Satellite images from June 19th showed a large number of airstrikes. Local Russian command requested again airstrikes against advancing Ukrainian infantry.
In fact, the Ukrainians didn’t only push on the main axis near Nove, they also pushed in two directions further west, slowly reaching Zelena Dolyna. Remember airstrikes are only used against fully controlled Ukrainian area and not contested zone. At the end of June, I came back from vacation and updated my airstrike map.
9/20
In fact, the Ukrainians didn’t only push on the main axis near Nove, they also pushed in two directions further west, slowly reaching Zelena Dolyna. Remember airstrikes are only used against fully controlled Ukrainian area and not contested zone. At the end of June, I came back from vacation and updated my airstrike map.
9/20
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In total, approximately 71 airstrikes could be found all around Nove in June, as it can be seen on this satellite image here. One geolocation was published on June 25th, it was the last one before geolocators stopped geolocating videos. It showed a Russian strike south of Nove…
10/20
10/20
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At this time, I sent a temporary image to some contact showing what I believed was the extent of the operation at the time (map from @AndrewPerpetua)
I didn't publish it for multiple reasons : my respect for OPSEC and for the sources.
11/20
I didn't publish it for multiple reasons : my respect for OPSEC and for the sources.
11/20
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During July, the OPSEC status was very powerful, with nearly no information filtering and no geolocations of the situation.
In mid-July, the Ukrainians secured Zelena Dolyna, but more importantly continued to advance on the fortified treelines east.
On July 27th, I published the 1st public analysis about the situation, showcasing the situation a month before.
12/20
In mid-July, the Ukrainians secured Zelena Dolyna, but more importantly continued to advance on the fortified treelines east.
On July 27th, I published the 1st public analysis about the situation, showcasing the situation a month before.
12/20
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During the month of July, 152 KAB airstrikes were conducted, half of them falling on fields and half on forests, treelines and villages. Interestingly, the first strikes hitting Nove and other villages confirmed the fact those were into Ukrainian hands for a long time.
At the end of July, the Ukrainians opened further offensive axes on the balka (small valley) east of Nove (near Novomykhailivka) and started advancing south. At the same time, clearing operations were ongoing in villages on the western side of the bulge. It is worth noting I have and had very few information regarding operation in the western flank, so the map is approximate.
13/20
At the end of July, the Ukrainians opened further offensive axes on the balka (small valley) east of Nove (near Novomykhailivka) and started advancing south. At the same time, clearing operations were ongoing in villages on the western side of the bulge. It is worth noting I have and had very few information regarding operation in the western flank, so the map is approximate.
13/20
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In August, fighting continued and reached further south, with the first rumours of encirclements of the Russian edge north of Lyman. In a month, around 200 airstrikes have been conducted on a large area, with a high concentration on Ukrainian infiltration routes.
The Ukrainians reached around August 15th the northern edge of Kolodiazi village (3km from there). Then, they continued to push on the flanks to clean Russian presence, as some Russian forces got trapped. Interestingly, during all this period, no Russian mapper ever talked about the difficult situation of the Russian grouping, but all of them updated their maps (Divgen, Radov, Rybar…), showing Nove as contested...
14/20
The Ukrainians reached around August 15th the northern edge of Kolodiazi village (3km from there). Then, they continued to push on the flanks to clean Russian presence, as some Russian forces got trapped. Interestingly, during all this period, no Russian mapper ever talked about the difficult situation of the Russian grouping, but all of them updated their maps (Divgen, Radov, Rybar…), showing Nove as contested...
14/20
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On August 24th, Ukraine launched a second successful mechanized assault, which was wrongly interpreted. It seems it was not aimed at pushing further south, but east, to progress between Katerynivka and Novoliubivka.
Here is a map of the situation from a few days ago (OPSEC is still partly ongoing so it's not the current one).
Ukraine cut the bulge, but still need to clear Russian presence west of Kolodiazi. There is no way Russian forces that got stuck west retreated and there is 0 proof of Ukrainian control other the farmlands that I kept in grey. Offensive actions continue on the east.
15/20
Here is a map of the situation from a few days ago (OPSEC is still partly ongoing so it's not the current one).
Ukraine cut the bulge, but still need to clear Russian presence west of Kolodiazi. There is no way Russian forces that got stuck west retreated and there is 0 proof of Ukrainian control other the farmlands that I kept in grey. Offensive actions continue on the east.
15/20
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I've seen many maps of the situation, which were missing many things, so I wanted to make something +/- chronological, with the information I had collected from Open Source.
Claims that a large Russian grouping got encircle are wrong, but I believe a certain number of soldiers are cut off and it was impossible to retreat due to Ukrainian drone monitoring. Russia suffered from lies (if you don't believe me, remember Putin stated Svihatohirsk was liberated (it is 25km from the frontline) and no reinforcement was brought in.
The operation didn't happen in one day and is still ongoing, most of the information I'm giving here are outdated of at least a week.
16/20
Claims that a large Russian grouping got encircle are wrong, but I believe a certain number of soldiers are cut off and it was impossible to retreat due to Ukrainian drone monitoring. Russia suffered from lies (if you don't believe me, remember Putin stated Svihatohirsk was liberated (it is 25km from the frontline) and no reinforcement was brought in.
The operation didn't happen in one day and is still ongoing, most of the information I'm giving here are outdated of at least a week.
16/20
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The main offensive axis comes from Nove and goes all the way south. We know there are two main support axes, one east and on west. The one east is recent and there are very few proofs, we just know that they nearly reached the Zherebet river.
The one west is known, but there is a large area where there may still be Russian soldiers. Most of the villages westwards have been cleared but not the treelines. Units involved include 66th and 60th mecanized, as well as an unknown bat of the 3rd AB and probably some other smaller units (I'm not very good at orbat mapping). Map from few weeks ago :
17/20
The one west is known, but there is a large area where there may still be Russian soldiers. Most of the villages westwards have been cleared but not the treelines. Units involved include 66th and 60th mecanized, as well as an unknown bat of the 3rd AB and probably some other smaller units (I'm not very good at orbat mapping). Map from few weeks ago :
17/20
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About the information space : There is only one reason barely any information was published about this offensive : geolocators for @UkraineDailyUpd
(@moklasen, @giK1893, @ZoamSc2, @Bielitzling, @RoadtoMars9...) chose not to update their map and publish geolocations. I know for sure they have plenty of geolocations from Russian videos that they didn't publish, this shows how small the information space is. If they don't publish anything, barely anyone else is doing any work.
18/20
(@moklasen, @giK1893, @ZoamSc2, @Bielitzling, @RoadtoMars9...) chose not to update their map and publish geolocations. I know for sure they have plenty of geolocations from Russian videos that they didn't publish, this shows how small the information space is. If they don't publish anything, barely anyone else is doing any work.
18/20
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Forwarded from falcon
🗺🛵 Route of the jet drone that entered Moldova and Romania.
Timeline
12:30 UTC - Drone detected by Ukrainian radars
13:00 UTC - Drone enters Ukrainian airspace
13:20 UTC - Drone enters Moldovan airspace
13:30 UTC - Drone flies over the Moldovan capital, Chisinau.
13:40 UTC - Drone enters Romania, crossing from Moldova.
13:52 UTC - Drone does a sudden U-turn and turns back to Moldova
14:15 UTC - Drone's speed suddenly decreased from 450km/h to less than 150km/h, then disappears from radar
📍 Approximate coordinates where it disappeared:
Timeline
12:30 UTC - Drone detected by Ukrainian radars
13:00 UTC - Drone enters Ukrainian airspace
13:20 UTC - Drone enters Moldovan airspace
13:30 UTC - Drone flies over the Moldovan capital, Chisinau.
13:40 UTC - Drone enters Romania, crossing from Moldova.
13:52 UTC - Drone does a sudden U-turn and turns back to Moldova
14:15 UTC - Drone's speed suddenly decreased from 450km/h to less than 150km/h, then disappears from radar
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In August, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 673 air-guided bombs against Ukraine 🇺🇦, of which I managed to map 63%
The highest concentration was, for the 1st time since April in the Pokrovsk, Dobropilla, Drujkivka direction, while the Hulialpole direction was 2nd. The Vovcha river direction is third, followed by Sloviansk, Izium and Kupiansk.
This airstrike campaign continues to have devastating effects for frontline positions and cities, with their very good accuracy.
Here is a short animation of airstrikes this year in the Kramatorsk direction, where at least 10 000 impacts were recorded. In Hulialpole, airstrikes continue to move farther west than the frontline, always in front of infiltrations. In this area, they are very precise.
Near Dobropilla, airstrikes are supporting the ongoing offensive, hitting every single treeline and forest. Finally in Kharkiv, they target large forests, since it's difficult to find and strike positions there. Airstrikes also target Sumy direction but I lack the tim eo map them.
The highest concentration was, for the 1st time since April in the Pokrovsk, Dobropilla, Drujkivka direction, while the Hulialpole direction was 2nd. The Vovcha river direction is third, followed by Sloviansk, Izium and Kupiansk.
This airstrike campaign continues to have devastating effects for frontline positions and cities, with their very good accuracy.
Here is a short animation of airstrikes this year in the Kramatorsk direction, where at least 10 000 impacts were recorded. In Hulialpole, airstrikes continue to move farther west than the frontline, always in front of infiltrations. In this area, they are very precise.
Near Dobropilla, airstrikes are supporting the ongoing offensive, hitting every single treeline and forest. Finally in Kharkiv, they target large forests, since it's difficult to find and strike positions there. Airstrikes also target Sumy direction but I lack the tim eo map them.
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Forwarded from Око Гора ✙ Новости и аналитика
FP-5 атаковали хим.завод по производству твердого топлива.
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