With gold hitting new ATHs almost every other day, it’s kind of funny to remember that just 10 years ago Canada decided gold was useless 🍁

They sold literally all of it. From a peak of over 1,023 tonnes down to effectively zero by 2016. The official logic was simple: "Gold doesn’t yield anything, costs money to store, and bonds in fiat currencies are liquid and productive".

So they swapped a hard asset for paper that pays interest. Since then, those fiat currencies lost at least 30% of their purchasing power. Gold is up roughly 400%.

🤣 What’s even better is that this wasn’t some rogue decision. It was framed as smart balance sheet management. Long-term, thoughtful, modern. Gold was called outdated. Non-yielding.

Turns out the relic did just fine. The “productive” alternative quietly did what fiat always does 📉

@Coin_Post

Worst Day Ever for Silver 🔽

Silver had its steepest one-day percentage drop EVER. Down about 37% in a single session. Trillions in market cap wiped out. For context, the entire crypto market is around $2.9 trillion. Silver is one of the largest assets on the planet, and it just lost more than a third in a day 😱

Gold didn’t escape either. Down roughly 14% at one point today. It was a full metals flush.

🇺🇸 The trigger was political. Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Markets read it as less chaos around Fed independence, less urgency for aggressive rate cuts, and a stronger dollar. Safe havens assets got sold, hard.

After every insane rally comes a violent dump once speculators start locking in profits. Metals had gone vertical. This is what vertical moves eventually look like on the way down.

I’m not in a hurry to buy metals right now, and if I were, I'd only buy gold. However, the price would still need to fall way more to attract my interest 🤔

@Coin_Post

Over $2.52 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated in the last 24 hours 🔽

Bitcoin slipped below $77,000. The correction keeps grinding on. ETH tagged $2,400, and interestingly, a lot of alts didn't fall that much compared to BTC 🕯

As I said earlier, the uptrend support didn’t hold. Once that broke, a deeper correction was the base case. Bitcoin is now down more than 40% from the October ATH, and momentum is still pointing lower.

This level matters though. We’re right around the average BTC buy price of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, roughly 76,000. For the first time in a while, I bought spot BTC around 77k as a long-term position 🟠

🔍 If price keeps falling, I’ll buy more. The lower it goes, the more BTC I accumulate via DCA strategy. I marked my planned buy zone with the green box on the chart.

My base case is a continued grind lower into the end of summer, with sellers finally exhausting sometime in the October. It is important to remember that all such predictions are very fragile in times of global instability. Anything can happen tomorrow, so it is not worth taking too many risks 🤔

@Coin_Post

What Is M2 📊

M2 is a measure of how much money is available in the economy. It includes cash and checking accounts, plus money that is not used daily but can be spent quickly, such as savings accounts, money market funds, and small time deposits.

🔍 Because it includes both active money and near money, M2 is often used as a proxy for liquidity. When M2 is growing, more money is available for spending and investing. When it slows or contracts, liquidity is tightening.

🏦 Central banks influence M2 through interest rates and lending conditions. Lower rates encourage borrowing and expand M2, while higher rates slow credit creation and can shrink it.

Changes in M2 matter for inflation and growth. Rapid expansion can push prices higher if supply cannot keep up. Contraction often signals slowing economic activity - like what happened in 2022-2023.

📈 Markets respond to these shifts. Expanding M2 tends to support risk assets, while shrinking M2 raises the cost of capital and pressures prices.

Historically, the price of Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with M2. However, there have been periods when the two have been decoupled for some time considerable, as is the case now 🙁

#FAQ

Don't forget to hate the asset when it's cheap and get FOMO when it's overpriced 😉

How to Make a Multi-Sig Wallet 👛

A multi-sig wallet is a smart contract wallet, not a traditional wallet with a private key or seed phrase. The wallet itself has no single key that can be compromised. Transactions are executed only after multiple independent signers approve them.

⛓️ Multi-sigs are widely used by protocols, DAOs, and teams managing huge amounts of money or important permissions.

They are considered top-tier security, safer than relying on a single cold wallet. Compromising one access key is not enough to move assets.

👛 Safe is the most common multi-sig implementation. It is heavily used, audited, and integrated across the ecosystem. Other solutions exist, but I think Safe is the best one.

1️⃣Open Safe web app and pick the chain you want the wallet on.

2️⃣Connect the wallets that will be signers, ideally hardware (cold) wallets.

3️⃣Set the threshold needed for transactions to be sent, like 2-of-3 signers, 4-of-5, etc. Deploy the Safe, which creates an onchain address.

4️⃣Fund the Safe address and start using it. For any transaction, one signer proposes it, then other signers approve it until the threshold is met. Only then can it be executed.

You can connect the Safe wallet to apps via WalletConnect when needed. The app interacts with the Safe address, while signers only approve transactions

#FAQ

Remember when I said that everything will become a market? 🎰

Today during the Grammys, the host casually referenced prediction markets after saying a pretty random word “potato”.

If you had me saying Potato on Polymarket you just made a ton of money.

Prediction markets are entering popular culture and becoming normalized.

By the way, didn't he commit a crime by saying what he said live on TV? Any experts in the comments? 🤔

Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC are buying again. Aggressively 😮

Back in November 2024, these whales flipped to heavy selling. That distribution trend ran for months. Around mid-November 2025, it reversed, and net inflows turned positive.

🕯 Over the last few weeks, as BTC slid toward 75k and weaker hands capitulated, these large holders stepped up even more. This is steady accumulation into fear.

It’s not a perfect bottom signal. It never is. But it’s a solid sign that long-term positions are being built here, even if price still has room to go lower.

It feels foolish to short the market here. Going all-in on longs is also a bad idea while the trend is still pointing downwards. However, as I've said before, steadily buying spot makes sense, and that's what I'm doing 🪙

@Coin_Post

Leverage Ruins People 🎰

Charlie Munger used to say that there are only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies, and leverage

👀 Crypto Twitter loves watching whales gamble on Hyperliquid because everything is public. Positions, size, PnL. Over the last 1.5 years there have been plenty of stories but most of them end in a same way.

Some were CT legends new-cyclers from other industries. Some were OG gamblers from earlier cycles. But what's important is that most of them blew up.

📈 Every chart follows a similar path:
big unrealized profits → more risk → profits gone → even more risk → deep negative → guy quits.

The point isn’t them. You don’t have $100m to set on fire. But you have access to the same tools as these guys.

😞 A whale with high 9 figures net worth losing $20m walks away bruised. Someone with $50k in savings nuking $30k gambling on leverage can ruin their entire life.

So, yeah, all the 'get rich quick' success stories are exceptions, and the charts in the attached image above show the general rule 🧠

@Coin_Post

BTC weekly RSI is now lower than it was after the COVID crash 🔍

The last time RSI was this low was June 2022, right around the $18k bottom.

📉 Historically, RSI living down here only shows up during capitulation. The kind of moments where sentiment is very depressed and most people are already done.

That leaves two options. Either we’re close to a meaningful bottom, or the entire BTC structure that’s held for more than a decade has changed.

I’m betting on the first. Every cycle, people say “this time is different” right here. And every time, that turns out to be the expensive take 🤔

❗️ But be careful if you're using leverage! Open interest is surging right now, as is funding. This suggests that people are trying to buy the bottom.

We may see a long squeeze with a large downward spike to form a real bottom.

@Coin_Post

Bitcoin just dropped below 67,000 🔽

More than $1.24B in leveraged longs got wiped out in the last 24 hours.

🤔 At the same time, JPMorgan says Bitcoin is now more attractive than gold long term. Their take is simple. Gold already had its big run, volatility is rising, and Bitcoin’s long-term appeal looks better from here.

As I’ve been saying, this phase was always about volatility and long capitulation. We might be watching that process play out in real time 🎢

@Coin_Post

Bitcoin touched $60,000 for the first time since October 2024 😮

Daily RSI just hit its lowest level since the COVID flash crash, when BTC dumped 44% IN A DAY and everyone was convinced that it's over. We also just printed a 15% daily red candle. That almost never happens.

🔍 Since 2020, moves like this showed up only three times. FTX blowing up, COVID lockdowns, LUNA and UST collapsing. Huge, breaking news events. This time there was no equivalent headline. Just price, leverage, and fear.

💀 More than $2.31B in longs got liquidated in 24 hours. That’s lots of forced selling. Right after that flush, BTC bounced hard off $60k and is already trading about 6.4% higher.

If you liked Bitcoin above 100k you must LOVE it today. Buying now is good opportunity 🛒

@Coin_Post

A Korean exchange just accidentally made hundreds of users millionaires 🤣

🎁 Bithumb meant to credit people with 2,000 KRW, about $1.5, as a random box reward. But the employee responsible for giveaway typed "BTC" instead. Hundreds of users got 2,000 BTC. That’s over $130 million each.

Some didn’t hesitate for a second and market-dumped the “gift.” As a result BTC on Bithumb traded about 10% below global prices while it happened 📉

@Coin_Post

BTC just printed one of the cleanest V-shaped reversals I’ve ever seen 🩸

An 18.88% daily green candle straight off the 60k lows. Late shorts got absolutely punished, no mercy.

🕯 Volatility over the last few days has been unreal. This is the worst possible environment to trade with leverage. You can be right on direction for the week or the month and still get liquidated ten times over by violent swings both ways before you ever get there.

😱 Moves like this are rare. We’re talking daily BTC returns that fall into >4.5 sigma territory. Extreme, statistically abnormal behavior. I’ll explain what that actually means in the next post.

@Coin_Post

What Is a Sigma in Bitcoin? 📊

Bitcoin’s daily moves cluster around a typical range. Most days are small, some are large, and very-very few are extreme. Sigma (σ) is the unit used to describe how far a single day’s move sits from normal daily volatility.

🧮 Think of sigma as a volatility ruler. A 1σ day is a normal trading day. A 2σ day is uncommon. A 3σ day is rare and usually tied to a clear shock. Anything above that falls into tail-event territory.

Using recent data, Bitcoin’s typical daily volatility is a little over 3%. That makes moves near 10% already extreme. Moves well beyond that are statistically abnormal, regardless of direction.

🔽 Yesterday’s -15% daily drop qualifies as an insane deep tail move.

🔼 Today’s +19.5% green candle is even more extreme, landing near the far end of the distribution.

These high-sigma moves tend to coincide with stress in options markets. During the selloff, demand for downside protection surged as traders bought puts aggressively. That repricing of options pushed implied volatility toward levels last seen during major dislocations such as the FTX collapse 🎎

Sigma value does not tell you whether price will reverse or continue to dump/pump. It tells you how unusual the move is relative to recent history.

🤔 However, you can use historical price performance to predict how much BTC will rebound after a >3.5σ crash. On average, BTC has traded 15% higher 30 days after such bottom.

#FAQ

Buying the bottom 🔍

So yes, we’re in a bear market. That part is obvious now. Back in November it wasn’t but I kept pushing caution. Tried to explain that the closer you get to the end of a bull market, the less risk you should be taking. Most people do the opposite.

😊 One piece of good news. This bear market has already been running for about 124 days since the October 6 ATH.

So far, the 4-year BTC cycle theory is still holding up. This year is about finding the bottom. Later, I'll make a series of posts about it and show some indicators and my own reads to help navigate the downtrend.

🗓 Historically, BTC bear markets are brutal. Average drawdowns are over 75%. But each cycle hurts a bit less as Bitcoin grows. Roughly 93% → 87% → 84% → 75%.

If we assume the same logic applies again, with more institutional money and a larger holder base, the bottom likely comes with a smaller drawdown than last cycle. Say from -50% to -70% from ATH. That puts the lowest price somewhere between 60k and 37k.

Also, bear markets usually last about a year, around 365 days. If history keeps rhyming, this one probably grinds into fall 2026. That’s the window where bottoms are usually made 🤔

part 1/2

Assuming you agree with the previous post's premise that this bear market will resemble previous ones in terms of % drop and duration, here is a chart showing the ideal zone to accumulate BTC. And yeah, the cleanest way to build a position in a bear market is boring DCA 🤷‍♀️

If you think BTC bottoms somewhere inside the green box, the goal isn’t to nail the exact low. Pick the total amount of BTC you want to own, split it into 10, 20, maybe 30 pieces, and place limit orders step by step lower. Build a net. As price drops, it fills you automatically instead of forcing decisions in panic.

🐻 A few things people forget every cycle:

🔴Most people don't buy the bottom. Just like almost nobody sells the top. Waiting for perfection usually means missing the move.

🔴Bear markets don’t bottom in a single dramatic candle. They bottom in boredom. Weeks or months of flat, ugly price action. People stop caring. BTC is “dead.” No one wants to buy. Then price leaves and never comes back.

🔴The market hits bottom when sellers stop selling, not when there are a lot of buyers. The biggest sellers should be exhausted, and late buyers should capitulate and realize their losses.

🔴The biggest pumps occur in bear markets. This may seem counterintuitive, but it's true. Even if you perfectly predict the market bottom, there will be many huge dead cat bounces and opportunities to get liquidated with a leveraged short.

🔴Right near the bottom, there’s always a crowd calling for lower. I remember how last cycle at 16–17k, so many people were convinced 12k was coming. After a massive drawdown from ATH, waiting for one more leg down is bad r/r.

part 2/2

@Coin_Post

How to Use the RCI Ribbon Indicator + BTC analysis 🔍

The RCI Ribbon indicator plots 3 Rank Correlation Index lines with different lookback lengths to show whether price direction is aligned across timeframes. It is not a momentum indicator in the usual sense. It measures how consistently prices are ordered in one direction over time.

📊 RCI works by ranking prices within a lookback window and comparing that ranking to time order. If prices are steadily rising or falling, the correlation is high. If price ordering is mixed, the correlation drops.

The ribbon uses 3 RCIs together:
⏺The short RCI (blue) reacts fastest and reflects short-term directional changes.
⏺The middle RCI (red) represents the medium-term structure.
⏺The long RCI (green) reflects the dominant long-term trend.

When all 3 lines align, price direction is consistent across timeframes. When they diverge, short-term movement is fighting the higher-timeframe structure. This is why the ribbon is best used on higher timeframes like 1w or 1m.

🟠 On the monthly Bitcoin chart, the RCI Ribbon has shown a repeating bear market pattern. In the last 3 bear markets, the long RCI (green) crossing above the middle RCI (red) marked the middle phase of the bear (I marked each with vertical red line). This same crossover occurred again recently.

After that crossover in prior cycles, Bitcoin dropped another 50% or more each time. This does not guarantee the same outcome now, but keep it in mind.

The actual bottoms in previous bear markets appeared later. Each time, the short RCI (blue) reversed sharply upward from deeply negative levels. Only after that sustained turn did Bitcoin transition into a bull market (I marked each with yellow vertical line).

🤔 Right now, the long-term structure has shifted, but the short RCI has not yet shown a confirmed reversal. Based on prior cycles, the RCI Ribbon suggests patience!

#FAQ

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BTC has fallen only 50% from its ATH, and we are already seeing weekly publications claiming that Bitcoin is dead 🤣

This is a tradition of every bear cycle. If you had bought $100 worth of BTC every time you saw the media declare Bitcoin dead, you would have $29.2 million today.

📝 As a tradition, the author of FT articles has been talking about Bitcoin's death since 2015, when it was at $300, and recently published new piece called “Bitcoin is still about $70,000 too high”.

There is a cool website called “Bitcoin is Dead” where you can track all the claims from mass media, financial analysts, economists, and all kinds of famous people 💀

@Coin_Post