The U.S. Dollar Index is up 4% from its January lows 📈

it means USD is trading higher against a basket of major currencies and it looks like the dollar is still the default hedge against chaos...

Every time headlines heat up, money runs into USD. The latest Middle East escalation just reinforced that pattern. Funds move into Treasuries, money market funds, and dollar cash. Demand rises, the dollar strengthens.

🇺🇸 There is also a structural reason. US interest rates are higher. US growth is holding up better than Europe’s. At the same time, Europe is more exposed to energy shocks. Europe feels oil price spikes way harder than the U.S. That makes EUR less attractive in a risk-off environment.

So what should you hold, USD, EUR or anything else?

👉 Short term, USD. The setup still favors dollar strength: geopolitical risk, rate differentials, and weaker European data. As long as those remain in place, the dollar has support.

If you live and spend in euros and your horizon is years, you don’t need to panic-swap everything. But if you are positioning for the next few 6-12 months, the dollar is the cleaner defensive play right now.

@Coin_Post

Trump says the US will end all trade with Spain ❌

He is also threatening an embargo after Spain denied permission to use jointly operated bases for strikes on Iran.

🙊 He said he has the “right to stop everything that has to do with Spain” and instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “cut off all dealings with Spain.”

He also claimed the US could use Spanish bases anyway if it wanted to "just fly in and use it" lol, and added that he is “not happy” with the UK for being in the same unhelpful category.

💰 US–Spain trade is meaningful. The US exports about $26.1 billion in goods to Spain each year and imports roughly $21.3 billion. An embargo would hit supply chains, and add another layer of economic stress on top of an already fragile geopolitical backdrop.

@Coin_Post

Bitcoin is showing clear strength today, up about 6.7% over the last 24h 🔼

Price has pushed back into the key resistance zone that capped previous attempts higher. The market spent weeks compressing below it, almost like a ball kept under water. What happens here will likely set the tone for the next few months.

📈 If BTC breaks this level and manages to hold above it on a weekly close, the path toward the 77k–79k area opens up. The only obvious risk to that scenario would be a serious escalation in the Iran conflict.

📉 If the breakout fails, the more likely outcome is a continuation of the 63k–70k range. In a weaker scenario, price could even drift back toward the February lows.

There is also the classic trap: price briefly breaks above resistance, triggers breakout buyers and hits clusters of obvious stop-losses from short positions, only to reverse sharply after that liquidity is taken 🔽

I am leaning toward the second scenario, with the possibility of a fake breakout to sweep liquidity. But keep in mind that positive news from the Middle East could change everything

@Coin_Post

A hedge fund called Situational Awareness pulled off one of the craziest runs in tech investing 🔼

In about a year, the fund reportedly grew from $1B to $5.5B in assets, with +47% performance in the first half of 2025, massively outperforming the S&P.

The fund is run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old based in San Francisco. He previously worked on OpenAI’s Superalignment team. After leaving OpenAI he wrote a viral manifesto about the coming AGI race and launched this fund around the same thesis.

🤖 The strategy is: bet on the physical infrastructure required for AI. If AI capabilities keep scaling, the real bottlenecks become power generation, datacenters, compute hosting, chips and networking.

That thesis shows up clearly in the portfolio: heavy exposure to power generation, compute hosting and bitcoin miners being repurposed for AI datacenters, along with connectivity and semiconductor suppliers.

@Coin_Post

Interesting divergence in global markets right now 🔍

📉 Most stock markets sold off after the US and Israel began bombing Iran. Yet the US market and Israel’s market held up, with the Tel Aviv index even printing a new all-time highs.

It is also surprising that Bitcoin is showing strength right now, when the dollar is rising and risk assets should be selling off 🤨

Looking under the hood, the S&P 500 strength is mostly coming from tech. Relative performance data shows the sector doing the heavy lifting.

🔍 If you want to see which sectors are actually carrying an index and compare valuation metrics like P/E, PEG, or P/S, I like to use this website for that kind of breakdown.

@Coin_Post

Energy Markets Are Breaking 🛢

The chart you see above is not a microcap memecoin, this is Singapore jet fuel futures. Since the war in Iran began, jet fuel prices in Asia have surged more than 140%.

📈 This market reacts fast to supply shocks because inventories are thin and disruptions show up immediately in pricing. And oh yes, there are all sorts of disruptions right now:

🔴Tankers are piling up as insurers pull war-risk coverage for the Strait of Hormuz.

🔴LNG shipping rates jumped from $40k to $300k per day.

🔴China has told refiners to stop exporting fuel.

🔴Qatar halted LNG production, effectively halting 20% of global LNG trade.

🔴Saudi Arabia shut part of the Ras Tanura complex.

🔴Iraq shut down one of the world’s largest oil fields.

🔴India’s Mangalore Refinery has halted fuel exports.

Markets are pricing a prolonged disruption of oil and gas logistics. If Hormuz remains constrained, we have a typical inflationary cascade: First, fuel price spikes, then shipping costs hit consumer goods, and then heating and electricity costs surge.

If this situation lasts long enough central banks around the world will face renewed inflation pressure, they will have to raise interest rates → slower growth → recession risk → stocks and crypto will go down 😱

@Coin_Post

Bitcoin is down about 5.1% today, with price barely holding above 68k 📉

The move looks exactly like the liquidity sweep above 71k I talked about earlier. Price briefly pushed into the resistance zone, cleared the obvious stop-loss clusters, and quickly dropped back into the February range.

🕯 Going into the next weeks, I expect continued Thursday–Friday volatility. Trump has repeatedly made geopolitical announcements after the US market close, which tends to hit risk assets once liquidity thins out.

This week’s BTC rally also looked mechanically driven. There was a large buildup of high-leverage short positions, and once those started getting liquidated the move accelerated. Fundamentally, the macro backdrop still argues for caution while the Iran conflict drags on.

The key level below is the 63k–64k zone (blue). A retest there looks likely. If that support fails on negative headlines, the market could quickly move into the next leg of price discovery lower 📉

@Coin_Post

What Is the Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) Ratio 📊

The Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio measures how much investors are paying for the cash a company actually generates. It is calculated by dividing market capitalization by free cash flow, or by dividing price per share by free cash flow per share.

💸 Free cash flow represents the cash left after a company covers operating expenses and capital expenditures. This is the money that can be used for dividends, buybacks, debt reduction, or reinvestment.

A lower P/FCF ratio means investors are paying less for each dollar of cash generation. A higher ratio reflects expectations of stronger future growth or improving profitability.

🤔 Many investors prefer P/FCF over P/E because earnings can be affected by accounting adjustments. Free cash flow focuses on the actual cash produced by the business.

The ratio works best when comparing companies within the same industry. Businesses with stable cash flows often trade at higher multiples, while companies with volatile cash generation trade lower.

Examples from the S&P 500 with very low P/FCF ratios today:

🟢Interactive Brokers ($IBKR) — P/FCF ≈ 1.23
🟢Synchrony Financial ($SYF) — P/FCF ≈ 2.35
🟢MetLife ($MET) — P/FCF ≈ 2.59

Extremely low ratios are not always a bargain. They often appear when the market expects cyclical declines, regulatory pressure, or unstable future cash flow ❗️

#FAQ

Short guide to funding rate arbitrage 👇

I explained what funding rates are in a this post. You can arbitrage them by going long and short the same asset on different venues where funding rates diverge. You can run a delta-neutral position and collect the spread.

How to monitor these opportunities:

💬 For Lighter DEX, use their quant tool

💬 For Variational DEX, use Varifunding

💬 You can also use Coinglass or EVplus

But funding differences can flip quickly, sometimes within hours. That’s why it’s important to check historical persistence before entering the trade. That's why you need to use LorisTools to backtest funding gaps.

1️⃣Choose the token
2️⃣Filter only the exchanges you want
3️⃣Set at least a 7-day window
4️⃣Check if the funding spread is consistent or just a short anomaly.

Crypto funding markets, especially on DEXs with low OI and volume, are still highly inefficient, which means small traders can often capture high APR from funding spreads

I found a clear illustration on $DYDX funding rates between Binance and the Lighter DEX (see screenshot above).

📈 On the chart, Binance (yellow) funding stays much closer to positive, while Lighter (blue) is on average much lower 📉

That means you can short DYDX on Binance and go long DYDX on Lighter, collecting funding while keeping the position delta-neutral and rebalancing when needed.

📌 Save for later

#earn

@Coin_Post

Truly apocalyptic scenes coming out of Iran tonight 😲

Trump wasn’t kidding when he said Iran was going to get hit very hard today. U.S. and Israeli forces launched massive strikes on the regime’s oil infrastructure.

🛢 This is a direct hit to the backbone of Iran’s economy and immediately raises fears of wider supply disruptions across the region.

📈 Crude oil on the 24/7 Hyperliquid market is trading around $95.7 per barrel...

I expect a very red Monday when global stock markets reopen.

@Coin_Post

Crude oil futures just opened around $108 per barrel 🔼

That puts oil up roughly 66% since the military operation against Iran began nine days ago, one of the fastest energy price spikes in recent years. Markets are clearly starting to price in prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supply and shipping routes.

🔽 Crypto reacted immediately as well. Bitcoin dropped below 66k as the oil spike hit and geopolitical risk surged.

If this continues, the scenario described earlier posts becomes increasingly likely: energy shocks feeding into inflation, transport costs, and broader market stress. Perfect scenario for a stock sell-off today 😨

🔴S&P 500 futures: -1.9%
🔴Nasdaq 100: -1.8%

@Coin_Post

Insane volatility in oil is still going 🕯

Crude futures ripped to $120 per barrel, then crashed 16.3% in a matter of hours to $100, and are now back around $105. That is not normal price action. That is a market trying to price war, supply disruption, and government intervention all at once.

Part of the reversal came after reports that the G7 will discuss a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves. The plan would run through the International Energy Agency, and three G7 countries, including the US, are already said to support it. The size being discussed is big, around 300M to 400M barrels, out of roughly 1.2B barrels currently held in reserve ❗️

That headline can cool panic for a day, maybe a few days. It does not remove the actual problem. The market is still dealing with disrupted flows, shipping stress, and the risk that this conflict drags on longer than people want to admit.

⚠️ And this is the part many still miss. This is not just about gasoline. Oil and gas sit underneath shipping, aviation, trucking, plastics, fertilizers, chemicals, heating, and power generation. Once crude moves above $100, those costs start leaking into food, goods, and industrial production. Closer to $120, some business models stop working at all!

The Strait of Hormuz matters because roughly 20% of global oil moves through it, plus a major share of Gulf LNG. That is why markets are so nervous 😱

@Coin_Post

How to Use the Bitcoin Cycle Repeat Chart 📈

The Bitcoin Cycle Repeat Chart projects the next 1,458 days by copying the price behavior of the previous 1,458 days. In simple terms, it assumes Bitcoin will follow the same cycle structure again. It also marks prior and projected cycle tops.

📊 In the image, the green line is price, the orange line is the 200-day moving average, and the blue line is the 1,458-day moving average. The chart is showing a projected path after the 2025 top near $124.7k, with the repeated cycle implying a deep bear market before the next recovery.

The main use of this chart is not precision. It is a way to visualize cyclical structure and ask where Bitcoin might be if prior timing repeated closely. That is useful for framing broad phases.

👉 If you believe strongly in Bitcoin cyclicity, the orange moving average is IMO more useful than the fractal itself. A moving average adjusts to current price behavior, while the repeated path assumes the next cycle will unfold almost the same way as the last one.

Right now, this chart suggests Bitcoin is in the middle of a bear market and could fall toward $25k before the cycle resets higher. That is a very aggressive projection and should be treated as theoretical, not predictive. It depends entirely on Bitcoin repeating past behavior with 100% accuracy ⚠️

#FAQ

In the last 24 hours we witnessed one of the most dramatic reversals in the history of the global oil market, -32% dump in less than 24 hours. Bitcoin even reached 70k during the relief rally 💸

The chart shows it clearly. Oil first ripped toward $120 as markets priced a real energy shock and the risk of a longer war around Iran. Then came the G7 reserve headlines, and after that even Trump started signaling that the conflict will be over soon. Oil collapsed fast.

‼️ Remember: When it comes to the US, politicians do not just move markets. Markets move politicians too. Once oil went vertical, the message was obvious: higher inflation, economic pain, and political backlash. Reports then came out that some of Trump’s advisers were privately urging him to look for an exit plan in Iran.

Iran understands this. It cannot beat the US and Israel in a direct military fight, but it can hit oil infrastructure and threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That alone is enough to damage markets and raise the cost of war for Washington.

🫢 And that is the trap here. Iran’s regime is very likely not going to fully surrender. The US and Israel can dominate from the air, but without boots on the ground they cannot force real regime change and install a stable replacement.

So both sides are now fighting through markets too. Iran is trying to weaponize energy flows and fear. Trump is trying to calm fears of a long Middle East war before oil and inflation spiral. The problem is that, despite quiet talk of an exit, the public line from Trump and the Pentagon is still that they intend to finish the job.

Two main realistic scenarios 👇

1️⃣The bullish scenario is simple. The US declares some form of 'victory', while Iran gets tired of watching its leadership and infrastructure blown apart, and agrees not to interfere with the Strait of Hormuz. Markets would take that and run with it.

2️⃣The bearish scenario is that the US gets trapped in a contest over Hormuz. Then Washington either has to escalate much harder to wipe out the remaining threats, or take an exit plan that leaves Iran with leverage over how oil and shipping move through the strait = uncertainty, very bad.

@Coin_Post

Turn ChatGPT into your personal stock research analyst 🔍

Want AI to do a clean, structured fundamental breakdown of any stock?

Use "GPT-5.4 Thinking" if you have it, it’s the best option for research and multi-step analysis. Free version or Auto can work too, but Thinking is preferable for this prompt.

💻 Then paste the prompt from the comments into a new chat and change just one word at the top — you need to insert the stock ticker or company name that interests you.

Once pasted, ChatGPT turns that chat into a stock research window. It explains what the company does, breaks down the key metrics, checks recent Wall Street sentiment, explains what drives the business, and ends with a conservative investment verdict.

An easy-to-copy version of this prompt can be found in the comments of this post 💬👇

New reports say U.S. intelligence is seeing that Iran is preparing to deploy some of its naval mines into shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz 💣

After a briefing, Senator Richard Blumenthal said the U.S. appears to be “on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran.”

🤔 It looks like Iran is doing exactly what we talked about in the previous post. Trap the U.S. into a worse choice. Either escalate and deal with the consequences of trying to secure one of the most important logistical arteries on earth, or back off and retreat from the original objectives of the military operation.

This is bearish for markets because oil likely goes higher again if that second scenario starts playing out. And people still underestimate one simple fact: you do not need hundreds of mines in the water to disrupt shipping. One is enough. Even a believable rumor can do the job 🤷‍♀️

@Coin_Post

The Most Bearish Bitcoin Call on Wall Street 🐻

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, is sticking to his forecast that bitcoin falls below $10,000. That would be a 92% drop from the all-time high.

🤔 His argument isn't about crypto specifically. McGlone believes bitcoin has become increasingly correlated with other speculative assets as institutional money poured in, which killed the "uncorrelated hedge" narrative.

What's left, in his view, is an asset trapped in a broader macro unwind driven by deflationary pressure and excess speculative supply.

He thinks the correction in traditional risk markets isn't finished, and crypto won't bottom until the speculative excess gets purged. His trading advice: sell any rallies.

Anyone here as bearish as this dude? 💬