5. Что это — война за нефть или нечто большее?
На поверхности — да, нефть играет роль. Если режим Хаменеи рухнет, цены на Brent могут взлететь до $120–130 за баррель из-за перебоев в поставках (Иран производит около 3,2 млн баррелей в день, 4% мирового рынка). Но это лишь часть пазла. Снятие санкций после смены режима может открыть рынок, после чего цены неизбежно пойдут вниз. Однако главный приз — не только нефть, но и геополитический контроль.
🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷🇷🇺🇨🇳США и Израиль хотят подорвать "ось зла" Иран–Россия–Китай, которая угрожает их влиянию. Падение Ирана ослабит "Хезболлу", ХАМАС и хуситов, а заодно ударит по позициям Москвы и Пекина в регионе. Китай, кстати, зависит от иранской нефти (около 10% его импорта), так что он не просто зритель — его авианосцы могут быть предупреждением, что Пекин не даст так легко перекроить регион.
🇨🇳 USS Nimitz ушёл из Индо-Тихоокеанского региона, и это перестановка сил: Штаты фокусируются на Ближнем Востоке, где сейчас жарче. Но это одновременно и шанс для Китая усилить своё присутствие в Тихом океане.
🌍 Так что это не просто война за нефть — это борьба за доминирование в регионе, где нефть, ядерные амбиции Ирана, прокси-сети и альянсы с Россией/Китаем сплелись в один узел. Если Иран падёт, доска перевернётся, но Китай уже готовит свои фигуры для новой шахматной партии, и к этому надо быть готовым.
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На поверхности — да, нефть играет роль. Если режим Хаменеи рухнет, цены на Brent могут взлететь до $120–130 за баррель из-за перебоев в поставках (Иран производит около 3,2 млн баррелей в день, 4% мирового рынка). Но это лишь часть пазла. Снятие санкций после смены режима может открыть рынок, после чего цены неизбежно пойдут вниз. Однако главный приз — не только нефть, но и геополитический контроль.
🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷🇷🇺🇨🇳США и Израиль хотят подорвать "ось зла" Иран–Россия–Китай, которая угрожает их влиянию. Падение Ирана ослабит "Хезболлу", ХАМАС и хуситов, а заодно ударит по позициям Москвы и Пекина в регионе. Китай, кстати, зависит от иранской нефти (около 10% его импорта), так что он не просто зритель — его авианосцы могут быть предупреждением, что Пекин не даст так легко перекроить регион.
🇨🇳 USS Nimitz ушёл из Индо-Тихоокеанского региона, и это перестановка сил: Штаты фокусируются на Ближнем Востоке, где сейчас жарче. Но это одновременно и шанс для Китая усилить своё присутствие в Тихом океане.
🌍 Так что это не просто война за нефть — это борьба за доминирование в регионе, где нефть, ядерные амбиции Ирана, прокси-сети и альянсы с Россией/Китаем сплелись в один узел. Если Иран падёт, доска перевернётся, но Китай уже готовит свои фигуры для новой шахматной партии, и к этому надо быть готовым.
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1. U.S. Interests in the Region: Why the White House Allowed Israel’s Strike Before the Sixth Round of Talks with Iran on June 15 in Oman
🇺🇸 Officially, the #US didn't give direct authorization for Israel’s strike on June 13, but they knew it was coming, which suggests political inconsistency and diplomatic missteps by the White House, which failed to stop it.
- Trump told Reuters that he “knew everything” and tried to dissuade Netanyahu, but #Israel allegedly acted unilaterally, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statement: “We are not involved in strikes against Iran.”
- The Pentagon held a briefing for Congress just hours before the attack, indicating prior notification — but no approval. Trump’s team had urged Israel to postpone the strike since April, citing ongoing negotiations; Vice President Vance and Director of National Intelligence Hubbard opposed the strike in May. However, Netanyahu’s actions — the assassination of Shamkhani and the strike on nuclear sites — torpedoed the sixth round, as Iran (unsurprisingly) suspended talks.
🔹 The publication of Israel’s request for help in destroying Fordow — a heavily fortified site buried deep in a mountain, beyond Israel’s firepower — could corner Trump, especially since he presents himself as a diplomat mediating peace with Iran.
- The strategic importance of Fordow makes any U.S. intervention “radioactive” diplomatically. But the Pentagon will have to proceed since they are already “in the game” and retreat is too late: the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow cannot be destroyed with conventional Israeli munitions; MOABs (Massive Ordnance Air Blast bombs) — the largest non-nuclear bombs available only to the U.S. — will be required.
🔹 U.S. interests lie in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power while avoiding a regional war. Trump bet on Iran’s economic weakness (sanctions, frozen assets) as leverage for a tough deal, but his maximalist demand for zero enrichment clashed with Iran’s insistence on its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Now Trump risks getting dragged into Israel’s “endless war” against Iran, losing his last chances at the Nobel Prize he so desperately wants — unless Israel deals with Iran quickly enough to prevent it from becoming a “forever war.”
Trump’s direct calls with Netanyahu (Monday and Friday prior) show he tried to delay Israel but avoided a hard veto to preserve the US-Israel alliance
🔹 What’s Trump’s Game?
Trump’s playing both sides: publicly cheering Israel’s “excellent” strikes (ABC News, Reuters), while privately urging Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal “before there’s nothing left.”
This speaks less to diplomatic success by the White House and more to the weakness of the U.S. position on the world stage. However, the justification sounds plausible — Trump won’t risk going down in history as the president who started a global war, and he is well aware of these risks.
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🇺🇸 Officially, the #US didn't give direct authorization for Israel’s strike on June 13, but they knew it was coming, which suggests political inconsistency and diplomatic missteps by the White House, which failed to stop it.
- Trump told Reuters that he “knew everything” and tried to dissuade Netanyahu, but #Israel allegedly acted unilaterally, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statement: “We are not involved in strikes against Iran.”
- The Pentagon held a briefing for Congress just hours before the attack, indicating prior notification — but no approval. Trump’s team had urged Israel to postpone the strike since April, citing ongoing negotiations; Vice President Vance and Director of National Intelligence Hubbard opposed the strike in May. However, Netanyahu’s actions — the assassination of Shamkhani and the strike on nuclear sites — torpedoed the sixth round, as Iran (unsurprisingly) suspended talks.
🔹 The publication of Israel’s request for help in destroying Fordow — a heavily fortified site buried deep in a mountain, beyond Israel’s firepower — could corner Trump, especially since he presents himself as a diplomat mediating peace with Iran.
- The strategic importance of Fordow makes any U.S. intervention “radioactive” diplomatically. But the Pentagon will have to proceed since they are already “in the game” and retreat is too late: the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow cannot be destroyed with conventional Israeli munitions; MOABs (Massive Ordnance Air Blast bombs) — the largest non-nuclear bombs available only to the U.S. — will be required.
🔹 U.S. interests lie in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power while avoiding a regional war. Trump bet on Iran’s economic weakness (sanctions, frozen assets) as leverage for a tough deal, but his maximalist demand for zero enrichment clashed with Iran’s insistence on its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Now Trump risks getting dragged into Israel’s “endless war” against Iran, losing his last chances at the Nobel Prize he so desperately wants — unless Israel deals with Iran quickly enough to prevent it from becoming a “forever war.”
Trump’s direct calls with Netanyahu (Monday and Friday prior) show he tried to delay Israel but avoided a hard veto to preserve the US-Israel alliance
🔹 What’s Trump’s Game?
Trump’s playing both sides: publicly cheering Israel’s “excellent” strikes (ABC News, Reuters), while privately urging Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal “before there’s nothing left.”
This speaks less to diplomatic success by the White House and more to the weakness of the U.S. position on the world stage. However, the justification sounds plausible — Trump won’t risk going down in history as the president who started a global war, and he is well aware of these risks.
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2. Israel’s Interests and the Possibility of Backchannel Negotiations with Iran
🇮🇱 Beyond the publicly stated goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s interests include strengthening its regional dominance, weakening Iran’s influence over proxy groups (such as Hezbollah and Hamas), and preventing a potential rapprochement between Iran and the U.S. through nuclear talks, which could limit Israel’s freedom of action.
- Additionally, Israel is almost openly pursuing regime change in Iran to eliminate the long-term threat and redistribute regional resources (although these objectives remain less explicit).
Israel’s aggressive lobbying — for example, public calls by Ambassador Leiter to destroy Fordow — and the scale of the Israeli operation make secrecy around any backchannel negotiations, like the murky Cyprus story, nearly impossible. Add to this Iran’s diplomatic blitz — 22 calls from Araghchi and letters to the UN — and you get a story too big to fully hide.
🔺 Is Israel targeting Khamenei and regime change?
Absolutely! Mossad’s track record, including infiltration of Iran’s security apparatus, along with at least two candid admissions by Netanyahu, prove that Israel is targeting Khamenei — if the strategic benefits outweigh the risks.
A world without Iranian ayatollahs can indeed breathe easier, but the blowback could also be huge.
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🇮🇱 Beyond the publicly stated goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s interests include strengthening its regional dominance, weakening Iran’s influence over proxy groups (such as Hezbollah and Hamas), and preventing a potential rapprochement between Iran and the U.S. through nuclear talks, which could limit Israel’s freedom of action.
- Additionally, Israel is almost openly pursuing regime change in Iran to eliminate the long-term threat and redistribute regional resources (although these objectives remain less explicit).
Israel’s aggressive lobbying — for example, public calls by Ambassador Leiter to destroy Fordow — and the scale of the Israeli operation make secrecy around any backchannel negotiations, like the murky Cyprus story, nearly impossible. Add to this Iran’s diplomatic blitz — 22 calls from Araghchi and letters to the UN — and you get a story too big to fully hide.
🔺 Is Israel targeting Khamenei and regime change?
Absolutely! Mossad’s track record, including infiltration of Iran’s security apparatus, along with at least two candid admissions by Netanyahu, prove that Israel is targeting Khamenei — if the strategic benefits outweigh the risks.
A world without Iranian ayatollahs can indeed breathe easier, but the blowback could also be huge.
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3. How Stable Is the Iranian Regime? What Will Happen to Iran if Khamenei Is Eliminated
🇮🇷 The Iranian regime is battered but not broken. A strike against Khamenei would be a test of its survival and could push Iran to the brink.
Eliminating Khamenei could paralyze the Iranian regime, given his role as the ultimate decision-maker and symbol of the Islamic Republic. The Spectator notes that his death would destabilize Iran, especially if his son Mojtaba, the potential successor, is also removed.
What Could Iran’s Reaction Be to Khamenei’s Assassination?
If Khamenei is killed, Iran’s response will be chaotic, driven by the IRGC and political factions:
1. IRGC Response: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls Iran’s ballistic missiles, would likely lead a fierce retaliation. Killing Khamenei would escalate vows of “severe punishment” to an existential level. General Mohammad Ali Naini has signaled readiness for escalation, and the IRGC’s air defense weaknesses (exposed by Israeli strikes) might force reliance on proxies such as Iraqi militias or the Houthis.
2. Internal Divisions: Khamenei’s death would trigger a power struggle.
Moderates like President Pezeshkian advocate restraint to avoid full-scale war, while hawks like Saeed Jalili may demand aggressive retaliation.
A leadership vacuum and Mojtaba Khamenei’s potential succession (lacking legitimacy) would spark unrest and could even lead to military rule. Economic troubles (691,500 rials per dollar) may further destabilize the regime.
3 Succession Crisis: Mojtaba Khamenei, the likely heir, lacks the religious and political influence of his father, threatening a power vacuum. Hardliners like Saeed Jalili could seize control, but factional battles within the IRGC or clergy might paralyze decision-making.
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🇮🇷 The Iranian regime is battered but not broken. A strike against Khamenei would be a test of its survival and could push Iran to the brink.
Eliminating Khamenei could paralyze the Iranian regime, given his role as the ultimate decision-maker and symbol of the Islamic Republic. The Spectator notes that his death would destabilize Iran, especially if his son Mojtaba, the potential successor, is also removed.
What Could Iran’s Reaction Be to Khamenei’s Assassination?
If Khamenei is killed, Iran’s response will be chaotic, driven by the IRGC and political factions:
1. IRGC Response: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls Iran’s ballistic missiles, would likely lead a fierce retaliation. Killing Khamenei would escalate vows of “severe punishment” to an existential level. General Mohammad Ali Naini has signaled readiness for escalation, and the IRGC’s air defense weaknesses (exposed by Israeli strikes) might force reliance on proxies such as Iraqi militias or the Houthis.
2. Internal Divisions: Khamenei’s death would trigger a power struggle.
Moderates like President Pezeshkian advocate restraint to avoid full-scale war, while hawks like Saeed Jalili may demand aggressive retaliation.
A leadership vacuum and Mojtaba Khamenei’s potential succession (lacking legitimacy) would spark unrest and could even lead to military rule. Economic troubles (691,500 rials per dollar) may further destabilize the regime.
3 Succession Crisis: Mojtaba Khamenei, the likely heir, lacks the religious and political influence of his father, threatening a power vacuum. Hardliners like Saeed Jalili could seize control, but factional battles within the IRGC or clergy might paralyze decision-making.
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4. How Khamenei’s Assassination Would Impact Global Politics and the Economy
⚔️ Regional Escalation Through Proxies:
The killing of Khamenei would unleash Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Despite losses, Hezbollah could launch rockets from Lebanon; Iraqi militias might strike U.S. bases; and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea could cause a sharp spike in oil prices, as The Spectator warns.
This risks escalating into a broader regional war potentially involving Saudi Arabia and Gulf states.
❗️ In such a scenario, if American assets are attacked, the U.S. would be forced to enter the war (although they are already on that path).
🛢📈 Oil Storm
Khamenei’s assassination would blow up the oil market. Iran-backed Houthis could block the Red Sea, cutting off up to 15% of global supply through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude prices could soar from $80 to $120+ per barrel, as it was in the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 The U.S. and EU would face inflation and rising fuel costs. China, reliant on Iranian oil, would back Tehran, demanding stability.
Chaos will drag on if Iran doesn’t collapse. Market panic is guaranteed!
‼️ BUT — it must be understood that the fall of the Iranian ayatollah regime is now inevitable; it’s only a matter of time. Otherwise, the world risks a nuclear power run by uncontrollable IRGC fanatics, before whom even Putin’s bravado pales!
How exactly the Iranian regime falls — whether through Khamenei’s elimination or a “Syrian scenario” — is less important. The global economy will have to weather a storm in the oil markets and Houthi blackmail in the Red Sea. Otherwise, the nuclear alternative will cost far more. And everyone understands this.
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⚔️ Regional Escalation Through Proxies:
The killing of Khamenei would unleash Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Despite losses, Hezbollah could launch rockets from Lebanon; Iraqi militias might strike U.S. bases; and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea could cause a sharp spike in oil prices, as The Spectator warns.
This risks escalating into a broader regional war potentially involving Saudi Arabia and Gulf states.
❗️ In such a scenario, if American assets are attacked, the U.S. would be forced to enter the war (although they are already on that path).
🛢📈 Oil Storm
Khamenei’s assassination would blow up the oil market. Iran-backed Houthis could block the Red Sea, cutting off up to 15% of global supply through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude prices could soar from $80 to $120+ per barrel, as it was in the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 The U.S. and EU would face inflation and rising fuel costs. China, reliant on Iranian oil, would back Tehran, demanding stability.
Chaos will drag on if Iran doesn’t collapse. Market panic is guaranteed!
‼️ BUT — it must be understood that the fall of the Iranian ayatollah regime is now inevitable; it’s only a matter of time. Otherwise, the world risks a nuclear power run by uncontrollable IRGC fanatics, before whom even Putin’s bravado pales!
How exactly the Iranian regime falls — whether through Khamenei’s elimination or a “Syrian scenario” — is less important. The global economy will have to weather a storm in the oil markets and Houthi blackmail in the Red Sea. Otherwise, the nuclear alternative will cost far more. And everyone understands this.
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5. Is This a War for Oil or Something Bigger?
On the surface — yes, oil plays a role. If the Khamenei regime collapses, Brent prices could spike to $120–130 per barrel due to supply disruptions (Iran produces about 3.2 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of the global market). But that’s only part of the puzzle. Sanctions relief following a regime change could open the market, causing prices to inevitably drop. However, the main prize is not just oil, but geopolitical control.
🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷🇷🇺🇨🇳 The #US and #Israel want to undermine the #Iran–#Russia–#China “axis of evil” that threatens their influence. The fall of Iran would weaken Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, while simultaneously striking at Moscow’s and Beijing’s positions in the region. China, by the way, depends on Iranian oil (about 10% of its imports), so it’s not just a bystander — its aircraft carriers may serve as a warning that Beijing won’t let the region be reshaped easily.
🇨🇳 The USS Nimitz has left the Indo-Pacific region, signaling a shift in power: the U.S. is focusing on the Middle East, where tensions are hotter. But this also presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its presence in the Pacific.
🌍 So, this is not just a war for oil — it’s a struggle for dominance in a region where oil, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, proxy networks, and alliances with Russia and China are intertwined. If Iran falls, the board will be flipped, but China is already preparing its pieces for a new chess game — and we need to be ready for that.
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On the surface — yes, oil plays a role. If the Khamenei regime collapses, Brent prices could spike to $120–130 per barrel due to supply disruptions (Iran produces about 3.2 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of the global market). But that’s only part of the puzzle. Sanctions relief following a regime change could open the market, causing prices to inevitably drop. However, the main prize is not just oil, but geopolitical control.
🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷🇷🇺🇨🇳 The #US and #Israel want to undermine the #Iran–#Russia–#China “axis of evil” that threatens their influence. The fall of Iran would weaken Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, while simultaneously striking at Moscow’s and Beijing’s positions in the region. China, by the way, depends on Iranian oil (about 10% of its imports), so it’s not just a bystander — its aircraft carriers may serve as a warning that Beijing won’t let the region be reshaped easily.
🇨🇳 The USS Nimitz has left the Indo-Pacific region, signaling a shift in power: the U.S. is focusing on the Middle East, where tensions are hotter. But this also presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its presence in the Pacific.
🌍 So, this is not just a war for oil — it’s a struggle for dominance in a region where oil, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, proxy networks, and alliances with Russia and China are intertwined. If Iran falls, the board will be flipped, but China is already preparing its pieces for a new chess game — and we need to be ready for that.
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⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Израильский телеканал i24News сообщил, что министр обороны США Пит Хегсет приказал подготовиться к потенциальному присоединению Соединенных Штатов к текущим операциям Израиля против Ирана, в случае если президент Трамп даст «зеленый свет».
❗️На X также появились сообщения, что американские танкеры-заправщики уже направляются в сторону Ирана. Курилла представил Трампу и Хегсету военные варианты решения ситуации с Ираном в случае провала ядерных переговоров еще до атаки Израиля, 10 июня.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
#США #Израиль #Иран
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Командующий CENTCOM генерал Майкл Э. Курилла и другие должностные лица Центрального командования США, как сообщается, поддерживают присоединение к конфликту, но некоторые высокопоставленные должностные лица администрации Трампа выступают против прямого участия США.
❗️На X также появились сообщения, что американские танкеры-заправщики уже направляются в сторону Ирана. Курилла представил Трампу и Хегсету военные варианты решения ситуации с Ираном в случае провала ядерных переговоров еще до атаки Израиля, 10 июня.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
#США #Израиль #Иран
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⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 According to a report by i24News, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered that preparations be made for the United States to potentially join the ongoing operations by Israel against Iran, in case the “Green Light” is given by President Trump.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
❗️There were also reports on X that American refueling tankers were already heading towards Iran. Kurilla presented Trump and Hegseth with military options for resolving the situation with Iran in the event of a failure of nuclear negotiations even before the Israeli attack, on June 10.
#USA #Israel #Iran
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The report further states that officials within U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), likely including CENTCOM Commander General Michael E. Kurilla, support U.S involvement in Iran, but there is opposition by other senior officials in the Trump Administration.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
❗️There were also reports on X that American refueling tankers were already heading towards Iran. Kurilla presented Trump and Hegseth with military options for resolving the situation with Iran in the event of a failure of nuclear negotiations even before the Israeli attack, on June 10.
#USA #Israel #Iran
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Forwarded from Bloomberg
Breaking: Donald Trump is cutting short his visit to the G-7 leaders’ summit and returning to Washington. Read more here: https://bloom.bg/45Vg6DG
Bloomberg.com
Trump to Leave G-7 Summit and Return to Washington on Monday
President Donald Trump is cutting short his visit to the Group of Seven leaders’ summit, according to the White House, and returning to Washington.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Hyperborea)
🇺🇸 The U.S. Secretary of Defense announced the deployment of additional assets to U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility to enhance defensive posture and protect U.S. forces in the region.
@TabZLIVE
@TabZLIVE
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