🔥💰SITREP: #MiddleEast Escalation & Market Impact

⚡️⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇷 US CENTCOM Signaling:
🤍CENTCOM released two high-visibility posts featuring a guided-missile destroyer and a transport aircraft.
🤍The Message: A public guarantee that "critical cargo" can be delivered anywhere within the CENTCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR).

⚡️🇮🇷 Tehran Civil Defense & Sabotage:
🤍Shelters: Tehran City Hall has designated 82 metro stations and 300 commercial parking lots as bomb shelters, promising power supply for 2.5 million people.
🔥Sabotage: Reports indicate explosions in various Iranian cities today targeting strategic facilities.
— Casualties: At least 6 dead.
— Attribution: #Israel officially denies involvement.

⚡️🇮🇷🇷🇺🇨🇳 The "Schrödinger's Exercises":
🤍Iran Nuances, citing Iranian sources, claims the joint naval drills with Russia and China WILL proceed in mid-February in the northern Indian Ocean, contradicting earlier reports of cancellation.

🧱 Market Reaction (Risk-Off):
📉Bitcoin Crash: BTC has plunged below $81,000.
💸 Liquidation: Nearly $1 billion wiped from the crypto market in the last 24 hours.

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#Middle_East

⚡️⚡️🇮🇷🇺🇸According to Reuters, on February 3, 2026, a US F-35C shot down an Iranian Shahed-139 drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

⚡️⚡️🇮🇷🇺🇸🇴🇲At the same time, Revolutionary Guard Corps boats and a Mohajer drone attempted to seize the US tanker Stena Imperative in the Strait of Hormuz — CBS News

❗️🇮🇷🇨🇳An Iranian Boeing 747 cargo plane with tail number EP-SIH is en route to #China.

⚡️🇮🇱🇺🇸 #Israel has requested US approval for freedom of action in #Iran.

🇺🇸🇯🇴🇰🇼🇧🇭🇶🇦The #US is deploying additional THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems to #Jordan, #Kuwait, #Bahrain, and #Qatar.

Axios: Donald Trump is restrained from military action due to the lack of a fully secure digital control infrastructure.

Factors cited include an incomplete satellite network required for real-time coordination of drones and air defense systems by AI agents, and the risk of cyberattacks on ground nodes.

Additionally, concerns exist about a potential "digital boomerang" effect, where an immediate strike could disrupt the Western banking system.

There is also the consideration of market stability for upcoming IPOs of companies like xAI and SpaceX.

In the background:
📉 Bitcoin fell below $75,000, and Ethereum fell below $2,200

UPD:
Bitcoin falls to $73,000
Current Bitcoin advice from former MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor

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News Summary February 6

PART 1. Epstein’s Echo & Intelligence Failures

Operation "MONITUM"
🇮🇱🇹🇷 For the first time in decades, a public failure of Israeli intelligence has been recorded.
Turkish National Intelligence (MİT) detained two suspects in Istanbul for espionage on behalf of Mossad.
➡️ Suspects: Mehmet Budak Derya (an engineer conducting espionage under the guise of marble trading) and his accomplice Veysel Kerimoglu.
Charges include gathering and transmitting intelligence data.
🤍Turks release video of Mossad agents detained


📄The Epstein Case

ℹ️The global intelligence community is bursting at the seams: The FBI finally decided to reveal the secret of the "crime of the century" success in several files.
🇺🇸🔎🇮🇱 Epstein was recruited by Mossad through Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz.
➡️ It turns out Epstein worked for both US intelligence and "allied" agencies.
🇮🇱🇸🇦🇦🇪❌🇶🇦🇹🇷🇮🇷🇸🇾 Under the Israelis, Epstein underwent spy training under former Israeli PM Ehud Barak. Their alliance was part of a broader geopolitical front: #Israel, #Saudi_Arabia, and #UAE against #Qatar, #Turkey, #Iran, and #Syria.

➡️🌐🇳🇴 In turn, the #WEF launched an independent investigation into CEO Børge Brende after it was revealed that Brende dined with Epstein multiple times from 2018 at the invitation of former Norwegian Deputy PM Terje Rød-Larsen.

❗️🇺🇸🇸🇦🇨🇳 Epstein’s partnership with the Rothschilds and the Saudis has also been exposed, as well as the financier's race for immortality: Epstein funded a genome editing program (CRISPR) with a solid $193,400.
⏺ The Rothschilds' interaction with Epstein is extensive. The US DOJ archive contains nearly 12,000 mentions (though some documents are being systematically deleted).

➡️🌎 The list of figures in the "Epstein Case" includes half the world, including Google and X co-founder Sergey Brin, Bill Gates, and Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan.
source: 1, 2, 3

➡️ Epstein also funded many Silicon Valley startups, — NYT citing declassified DOJ documents.
In 2014, he invested $3 million in Coinbase, $5 million in the startup Jawbone, and later increased his investment in that company to $11.25 million.

➡️ Furthermore, Epstein invested $40 million in Valar Ventures, the venture fund of Palantir founder and PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel — TASS.

* * *

📉 It is not surprising that against the backdrop of total leaks on the Epstein case and intelligence failures, the US stock market lost $1 trillion in capitalization, and the crypto market lost $350 billion.

📉💸📈 Bitcoin fell below $63,000 in 24 hours, then jumped back to $70,000.

💰 The Fear and Greed Index in the crypto market fell to 9/100, the lowest level since June 2022.

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News Summary February 6

PART 2. Middle East Logistics

⚡️🇺🇸✈️🇮🇷 Since January 16, 2026, the #US Air Force has carried out at least 122 flights to the Middle East.
🤍 114 flights were performed by C-17A Globemaster III aircraft.
🤍 8 flights — by C-5M Super Galaxy.

➡️ Destinations 🇯🇴🇶🇦🇸🇦🇰🇼🇧🇭🇩🇯🇬🇧🇦🇪🇮🇱

▪️ 59 flights — Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, #Jordan;
▪️ 20 flights — Al Udeid Air Base, #Qatar;
▪️ 14 flights — Prince Sultan Air Base, #Saudi_Arabia;
▪️ 9 flights — Ali Al Salem Air Base, #Kuwait;
▪️ 4 flights — #Bahrain (including 3 to Isa Air Base);
▪️ 6 flights — US Navy Base Camp Lemonnier, #Djibouti;
▪️ 7 flights — Diego Garcia Air Base (3 via Al Udeid);
▪️ 2 flights — Al Dhafra Air Base, #UAE;
▪️ 1 flight — Nevatim Air Base, #Israel.

This count does not include intra-regional flights between bases, nor does it include over a dozen flights by US Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM).

🚨🇺🇸🚀 In total, the US has deployed over 450 Tomahawk cruise missiles to the Middle East — NBC News.

🇺🇸⛴ However, according to POLITICO, the US Navy still requires more than a week to reach positions necessary for a potential attack on Iran.

Diplomatic Panic
‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US Virtual Embassy in Tehran issued a major security alert urging US citizens to leave Iran immediately.
🤍 All this during talks between the US and Iran, which on the American side (besides Kushner and Witkoff) included CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper (suggesting that military men make lousy negotiators).

#US and #Iran held eight-hour talks in Muscat mediated by Oman — Axios.

⚡️🇮🇷🇺🇸🇴🇲 Iran demanded to secure its right to uranium enrichment — WSJ, IRNA.
Iran is also not ready to make concessions on its ballistic missile program — NYT.

🔴 RESULT: There will be no agreement with Iran.

➡️ Meanwhile, sources at The National report that Kushner is "actively working" with Iranian-American businessmen to create a transitional government following the fall of the Iranian regime.

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Week in Review: The Calm Before the Storm

‼️🇺🇸 🇮🇷 #US vs #Iran: Pre-Strike Buildup Reaches Critical Mass

What we're witnessing is not "increased pressure" or a "negotiating posture." This is a textbook pre-strike force deployment

➡️ Two carrier strike groups (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford) are now converging on the Middle East. A single carrier group signals deterrence. Two signal an operation. The combined air wing comprises approximately 240 strike aircraft, including F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, F-35C/A, F-22A, F-16, and F-15E platforms, supported by EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft, E-2D/E-3 AWACS, P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol, and KC-135/KC-46 tankers

➡️ Since mid-January, the US has conducted roughly 200 C-17 Globemaster III transport flights to the region. At approximately $25,000 per flight hour and 11 hours per round trip, transport costs alone exceed $55 million — excluding the deployment of dozens of other aircraft and naval vessels

🇯🇴 THAAD missile defense systems have been deployed to Muwaffaq Al-Salti Air Base in Jordan, with at least 68 cargo aircraft arriving within five days. THAAD is not a deterrence tool — it's a shield you raise when you know the counterpunch is coming

🇳🇴 The US is withdrawing most of its aviation assets from NATO's Cold Response 2026 exercises in #Norway, scheduled for early-to-mid March. This is a direct resource reallocation from "training" to "operational" status

🇵🇹 Portugal's Lajes Field in the Azores experienced its largest-ever influx of American aircraft: at least 11 KC-46 tankers, 12 F-16 fighters, one C-17 transport, and approximately 400 US crew members transited through on February 18-19 alone. Staging bases are running out of capacity

🔴🕘 Estimated timeline: The strike group reaches peak readiness by late February to early March 2026. The operational window opens in the first two weeks of March. The likely scenario is a 72-hour air campaign targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Arak, Bushehr) and IRGC command centers — not a ground invasion, but a decapitation of the nuclear program

➡️ Trump's mention of 32,000 Iranian protest casualties is narrative preparation — framing the strike as "liberation" rather than aggression

⚡️🇺🇸✈️Boeing C-17 Modernization: $400M for a "Retired" Workhorse

The US Air Force awarded Boeing a $400+ million contract to fully modernize the C-17A Globemaster III cockpit — for an aircraft whose production ended in 2015. The USAF needs the C-17 flying until 2075. This is not a typo. An aircraft designed in the 1980s is being prepared for service into the 2070s. The 200 transport flights to the Middle East in one month are a better justification for this investment than any Pentagon report

🇮🇱 🇦🇪 #UAE - #Israel: Shin Bet Embedded in the Emirates

A leaked UAE Ministry of Interior document reveals a secret agreement embedding seven Shin Bet agents directly within the command centers of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and all seven emirates. Agents were issued Emirati identity cards for undercover operations. A joint Mossad-Shin Bet office was established at Expo 2020. Israeli "consultants" operate under the direct supervision of local police chiefs

This leak is either a deliberate signal from someone in Abu Dhabi seeking distance from Israel ahead of the Iran strike, or Iranian intelligence demonstrating awareness of Israeli-Gulf coordination. Either way, the message is clear: the Emirates are already inside the operation, whether they acknowledge it publicly or not

🇯🇵 🇩🇪 #Japan and #Germany have repeatedly urged their nationals working at US facilities in the Middle East to leave. MFAs across multiple countries have been issuing similar warnings for at least three weeks — routine noise until embassy evacuations begin, which marks the real countdown

⚠️As a reminder: in early February, #KSA, #UAE, #Qatar, #Kuwait, #Iraq, #Jordan, #Oman, #Azerbaijan, #Turkey, and #Pakistan officially or privately warned the United States that they would not allow their airspace, land, or waters to be used for aggression against Iran

#IRAN
Epic Fury → Epic Fuckup: Trump Drowns Approval in Iranian Sand

⚡️🇺🇸 Days before "Epic Fury" op kickoff, FBI Dir. Kash Patel disbanded elite counterintel unit CI-12 (Iran-focused), starting with agents probing Trump's Mar-a-Lago classified docs theft.

CI-12 handles media leaks, mishandling of secrets, w/ Middle East spy vets.

Patel accused them (no evidence) of botching Trump probe, gutting Iran threat monitoring pre-war.

⏺First fallout: Iran busts saboteurs in Tehran, seizes weapons, ammo, Starlink terminals (video).

⏺Iran internet blackout >3 days — NetBlocks.

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 NYT: 24h post-strikes, Iranian intel direct to CIA offering ceasefire. #Israel urged #US ignore. WH complied.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu pressures Trump, wife/son hunkered in Miami.

🇺🇸🇶🇦🇦🇪🇯🇴🇸🇦Satellite pics confirm Iranian strikes hit US missile defense radars in Middle East: $1.1B AN/FPS-132 early warning in Qatar + AN/TPY-2 THAAD-linked in UAE, Jordan, Saudi.

MARKETS:
💵 Amid chaos, PMs tank, oil/crypto surge.

📉Gold/silver wiped $2.4 TRILLION in 3.5 HOURS — more than total crypto mcap. Gold -5%, silver -11%.

📈BTC blasts >$70K.
BlackRock ETF scoops $322M BTC.

📈Oil +3%, Brent $84/bbl.

📉Price of European gas has fallen by more than 15%.

🔴3 days Iran strikes burned more long-range missiles than 4 Ukraine war years.
Trump hauls Lockheed/Raytheon CEOs, demands ramp-up — Reuters.

But Raytheon can't promise 1000 Tomahawks/yr, Pentagon FY26 budgets just 57.

Industrial base so weak, threats to contractors for not wartime-scaling despite impossibility.

"The empire fired off its arsenal trying to intimidate Iran, and all it achieved was exposing the hollow core of American power. Superpower wouldn't scramble finance aid cuz regional state hit back. Wouldn't drag defense CEOs to WH like panicking paramedics to dying patient.

That's strategic exhaustion. DC burns decades stockpiles in 72h, then begs Capitol cash. Musk slipping." — Thomas Keith

➡️ "Why 'Epic Fury' turning epic fail" — ASP study.

⚠️Trump won't rule out ground op vs Iran — Erik Prince bows out.
Blackwater founder (nailed Venezuela prep) told Trump: "Don't even think boots on ground."

⏺ Analysts note odd US troop shifts Europe/US → UK buildup. Heavy relay planes to Mideast = ground phase prep full steam.

📉Trump approval 38%, 58% disapprove — Economist.
(Graph: "407 days into Donald Trump's term" — Net approval -19 (down 0.6/wk). 38% approve, 58% disapprove. Line sinks vs Biden/Trump1.)

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#War in #Iran: When the Stakes Are Higher Than Life

⚡️🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The U.S. government yesterday paid an informant in Iran — 0.0378 BTC ($2,520). This was instantly exposed (screenshot attached).

❗️🇮🇷 Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani on X:

"Through Netanyahu's reckless clownish behavior, Trump dragged the American people into an unjust war with Iran. Let him ask himself today: after more than 500 American soldiers killed in just a few days, does the slogan 'America First' still stand — or has it become 'Israel First'?"

🔴☠️🇺🇸 Over 100 U.S. Marines killed in a strike on Dubai, #UAE — reported by "Khatam al-Anbiya", an Iranian-linked military command.

➡️ 50,000 U.S. military personnel are involved in the operation against Iran — CENTCOM.

⁉️SUDDENLY
❗️🇺🇸 Trump: "If Iran kills me, they will be destroyed. I have left instructions. There will be nothing left of Iran."

⚡️🇺🇸 "Iran's ballistic missile launches have decreased by 86%, strike UAVs — by 73%" — Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Caine.

⚡️🇺🇸 "The war with Iran could last up to 8 weeks. But the U.S. and Israel will gain full control of Iranian airspace in less than a week", — Hegseth.

🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Israeli intel has received info that raises suspicions that some kind of dialogue is taking place between Tehran and Washington — Axios

🇮🇱 🇺🇸 #Israel announced the elimination of Rahman Moqadam, head of the IRGC's Special Operations Division, who allegedly masterminded the assassination attempt on Trump ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

‼️🇺🇸 #USA conducted a test launch of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, according to a statement from the Air Force Global Strike Command.

⚡️🇹🇷 Turkey's Ministry of Defense reported intercepting a ballistic missile over its territory.

⚡️🇺🇳 An independent #UN mission found that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran violate the UN Charter.
However, the emergency UN Security Council session ended without a resolution (due to U.S. veto).

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷The Pentagon is burning through precision munitions at such a rate that the U.S. military is "just days away" from having to prioritize which targets to intercept first — WSJ.
OSINT observers: U.S. forces in Qatar are using PAC-2 air defense missiles manufactured in 2000, after running out of PAC-3 interceptors.

📈🇺🇸🛢Average U.S. gas prices have surged at the fastest pace in two days since 2005.
🛩 Jet fuel prices have also spiked sharply.

🛢📉Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by 90%.
Insurers have pulled coverage — no tanker will sail without insurance. China receives 57% of its oil from the Middle East (Le Monde). This is the beginning of a global crisis.

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#US vs. #IRAN #War
Second phase of the war: neither oil nor water
ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE IN THE MIDDLE EAST · Part 1: #OIL

🇺🇸🇮🇱🔥🛢🇮🇷 Having fortunately refrained from a nuclear strike, Washington and Tel Aviv have moved to the second phase of the war, simultaneously attacking Iran's oil infrastructure and triggering an environmental catastrophe

FACTS:
➡️ Oil depots are burning across Tehran.

⏺Massive columns of smoke rise above fuel tanks at oil refineries, blanketing the skies over Iran's capital.

⏺Following a massive US and Israeli attack on an oil storage facility in Rey, south of Tehran, crude oil entered the sewage system and ignited fires in the streets.

⏺CNN reports black, oil-contaminated rain falling over Tehran following US and Israeli airstrikes.

⏺ Yesterday the White House declared it "wants" to "take oil out of the hands of terrorists" — and hours later bombed Iranian oil facilities, triggering an environmental catastrophe in the Tehran metro area, home to 14 million people.

🔴 The IDF confirmed the attacks and released initial results:

"The Israeli Air Force, under the guidance and in cooperation with Military Intelligence (Aman) and the Operations Directorate (Amatz), recently struck several fuel storage facilities in Tehran."

• Over 300 targets were hit over the weekend with approximately 1,500 munitions.

• Israeli Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar personally participated in bombing raids on Iran, flying an F-15 fighter jet.

🔴 US officials are discussing the possible seizure of Iran's oil terminal on Kharg Island — Axios

Collateral damage:
📈💵Average US gasoline prices rose to $3.45, the highest since September 2024.
But Trump, as usual, casually declared that oil prices would go down.

REASONS:
➡️#Israel understands and is in a hurry: the US-backed war may end within a week — the Pentagon is critically short of funds to continue the war at its initial pace.

• Just one week into the war, the US-Israeli coalition was forced to sharply reduce strikes on Iran: the daily volume of attacks dropped by 55–65%.

• According to a CENTCOM bulletin, US forces struck 1,250 targets in the first 48 hours and 1,700 targets in the first 72 hours.

OBJECTIVE:
➡️ The logic behind the oil carnage: closing the Strait of Hormuz poses catastrophic risks to Asia's entire energy security.

🇦🇪🇰🇼 #UAE and #Kuwait are cutting oil production due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — Bloomberg

Asia remains critically dependent on Middle Eastern oil and LNG transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest data shows that ~85–90% of crude oil and ~82–90% of LNG (from Qatar/UAE) flow to Asian countries:
🇨🇳 #China accounts for ~38% of oil volume
🇮🇳 #India ~15%
🇰🇷 #South_Korea ~12%.

🛢📈 WTI crude oil prices surged more than 35% this week — the largest weekly gain in 43 years.

BENEFICIARIES:
➡️ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 ❌🇨🇳 By engineering an environmental catastrophe in Iran, the US is pulling the chair out from under Beijing — while simultaneously handing Russia carte blanche in its war against Ukraine, now in its fifth year.

Russia is the second beneficiary after the US. Oil at $93+ (Murban), WTI +35%. Every dollar of oil price increase means billions into the Russian budget.

Russia was suffocating at $60+ (with $70 baked into the budget). At $90+ the Kremlin breathes freely. Washington understands this better than anyone — remember Trump's words: "At $40 a barrel, Russia can't afford to fight."

The oil price surge is not a side effect. It's part of the deal. The Anchorage agreement is bearing fruit.

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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🌎 EVENTS and FACTS

➡️ What politicians and military say:

🇮🇱 IDF Spokesperson: We have eliminated over 1,900 Iranian regime combatants.
#Israel plans to boost its defense budget by ~$13 billion to bankroll the war with Iran — Bloomberg.

🇱🇧⏺Human Rights Watch: Israel dropped white phosphorus munitions on the Lebanese city of Yahmor on March 3.

⚡️UNICEF: Since March 2, at least 83 children have been killed and 254 injured in Lebanon amid the Israel-Hezbollah escalation. That's an average of 10+ kids killed and 36 injured daily.

⚡️🇨🇦 An unidentified gunman opened fire on the US consulate in Toronto — Reuters.

⚡️🇺🇸 Boeing Secures $289 Million Contract to Supply Israel with Up to 5,000 Smart Bombs


🇺🇸 Trump:

"If we had waited three days, I think they would have attacked us."

➡️ Putin after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022: "If we hadn't attacked them, they would have attacked us in 3 days."

🇺🇸☎️ 🇷🇺 Agent Krasnov reported on his chat with his Kremlin handler regarding the Iran op's successes:
"Putin was impressed by our operation in Iran. He told me he had never seen anything like it before."
Now he just needs to share the joy with Kim Jong-un... and Adolf.

🇷🇺🫡 "Putin assured Trump that Russia is not providing Iran with data for strikes on US facilities," — Vitkoff (CNBC).

"Yesterday, during a conversation with the president, the Russians stated that they had not shared intelligence data. We can take them at their word."

➡️ So the CIA, Pentagon, and WP are lying to the WH? The audacity! And apparently, the Iranian Foreign Ministry is lying too, despite publicly confirming Russian and Chinese assistance...

🇺🇸🇷🇺🛢Trump:

"We are lifting some sanctions on Russian oil to drive down prices. Just until the situation is resolved..."

⚡️ John Bolton:

"Trump is manipulating the stock markets; we know that oil prices have risen sharply."

🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz:

"From our perspective — and mine personally — there is zero justification for easing sanctions on Russia. If forced to choose between sanctions and solidarity, our stance is clear: we stand with Ukraine. We are deeply concerned by the apparent lack of any coherent plan to end this war swiftly and decisively."

🕔💰The Strait of Hormuz remains sealed off to all shipping for a second week.
Commercial vessels are stranded on both sides due to missile and drone threats.

🪖 General Dan Caine:

"CENTCOM continues to strike the Iranian Navy and its capabilities to ensure sustained movement through the Strait of Hormuz. We will keep hitting their minelaying vessels."

⚡️📝 Iran has already started mining the Strait of Hormuz — CBS.


💵MARKETS:
🛢📉 WTI crude dropped to $85/bbl following Trump's verbal interventions about an imminent end to the war.

Following Trump's remarks on a potential early US exit from the Iran conflict and the lifting of Russian oil sanctions, May Brent futures dipped to $86.99/bbl, though it continues to trade sideways around $92.04/bbl.

⚡️🇨🇳🇷🇺🇮🇷🇻🇪 Off the coast of #China, record stockpiles of sanctioned oil from #Russia, #Iran, and #Venezuela have piled up — 40 million barrels are sitting on tankers waiting to offload — Kpler.

That's a 17% spike compared to the week before the Iran war kicked off. The crude is floating storage, acting as a buffer for Chinese refineries amid supply chain disruptions from the Persian Gulf.

⚡️🇮🇳 Indian refiners have swept up all available Russian crude — Bloomberg.
The haul totaled roughly 30 million barrels, pricing at a $2-$8 premium over Brent.

⚡️🇶🇦⛽️LNG markets have taken a massive hit from the disruption of Qatari supplies.

💰Contract prices have surged to $13 — up 53% from 2025.

🇺🇸 The US domestic LNG price sits at $3.63.
🇪🇺 Meanwhile, the US is offloading gas to Europe and Asia (68% of its LNG exports) at $12-$13.

UPD:
🚨🇺🇸 US Senator Richard Blumenthal after the briefing:

"We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here."

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#US vs. #IRAN
Against the backdrop of war

March 12
❌🌐 Global Telegram outage: messenger went down in the US, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Turkey, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, and the Netherlands
The same day, Grok on X went fully paid
In Russia, Telegram is still down — RBC

Medieval Ages 2:0: #Russia under the heel of RKN
🇷🇺❌🌐 Moscow and St. Petersburg have finally returned to Russia — mobile internet has been down in both capitals for the second week running

Residents cannot contact their families or call a taxi. In Moscow, sales of pagers, walkie-talkies, and paper maps have surged, while mobile fire teams — pickups with machine guns and soldiers — have been deployed around the Kremlin

In restaurants where a glass of water costs 820 rubles (>$10) and there's still no internet, they're now debating how much to charge guests for surfing: "A thousand per minute?"

March 13
🇺🇸🚀🛢 US forces struck Kharg Island
Consequences:

• 90 targets hit, but oil infrastructure left untouched

• All 55 crude oil storage tanks undamaged

• 10 Iranian (NITC) tankers successfully began loading 2.7 million barrels of crude oil on March 14

• Nothing is burning

Axios — the Trump administration is privately considering "boots on the ground": a commando raid on nuclear sites with occupation of Kharg. That's about the extent of what their forces can handle

The Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group — the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) and amphibious docks USS New Orleans (LPD-18) and USS San Diego (LPD-22), carrying 2,500 Marines from the 31st MEU plus 20 F-35B Lightning II fighters — is moving from the Sea of Japan toward the Persian Gulf. Attack helicopters are also aboard

If Kharg is occupied, 90% of Iran's oil exports will be cut off. This isn't a military victory, but it is economic strangulation. Iran without Kharg is a corpse, and Trump knows it

❗️🇺🇸 Before the war, Kaine warned Trump about the danger of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, yet Trump started the war anyway — WSJ

⚡️Hegseth ignored military warnings and slashed the staff responsible for civilian casualty prevention from 200 to fewer than 40 — Politico

➡️ The Telegraph: Trump is throwing "embarrassment" Hegseth under the bus, turning him into a "human shield"

March 14
🇺🇸🇬🇧 10 F-35A Lightning II USAF fighters deployed to RAF Lakenheath, #UK:

• F-35A Lightning II (388th FW) / s/n 18-5477 / callsign TABOR81

• F-35A Lightning II (56th FW) / 20-5610 / TABOR82

• F-35A Lightning II (354th FW) / 20-5568 / TABOR83

• F-35A Lightning II (388th FW) / 20-5566 / TABOR84

• F-35A Lightning II (388th FW) / 17-5259 / TABOR85

• F-35A Lightning II (419th FW) / 17-5282 / TABOR86

• F-35A Lightning II (388th FW) / 17-5237 / TABOR91

• F-35A Lightning II (388th FW) / 17-5262 / TABOR92

• F-35A Lightning II (388th FW) / 17-5260 / TABOR93

• F-35A Lightning II (388th FW) / 20-5611 / TABOR94

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The Pentagon has deployed 10,000 AI-powered Merops interceptor drones to the Middle East, developed by Perennial Autonomy and tested in Ukraine — Bloomberg

🇺🇸 Palantir CEO: AI gives the US an advantage in the conflict with Iran

Alex Karp confirmed that the Pentagon uses Palantir's Maven AI system to plan strikes on Iran
Military operators create a task card, select a strike zone, and the system recommends which weapon to use

❗️The problem: Maven's Computer Visual Detection is lagging, causing heavy AI models to see "things that aren't there" (e.g. Grok)

March 15
🇮🇷❌🌐 Iran has been without internet for nearly 400 hours
OSINT monitors report that today one of the strikes on Iran hit the vicinity of a telecommunications hub in Hamadan, causing internet to drop below 1% due to issues with AS12880, used by state telecom infrastructure and ISP networks — NetBlocks

🇮🇱 🇱🇧 #Israel has informed the US of a critical shortage of ballistic missile interceptors (The Scoop) and announced the mobilization of four military units, including the Golani Brigade, on the northern front with Lebanon

🇯🇵 Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi held a video conference with Hegseth on the Middle East situation

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#US vs #IRAN
Epic "Epstein Mess"

💰🇺🇸 Corrupt War Winners:
1. Eric and Donald Trump Jr. are investing in a drone manufacturing company.
2. Jared Kushner plans to rebuild the Persian Gulf after the war.
3. The Witkoff family is buying up depreciated real estate in the Middle East.

Beneficiaries and Losers:
🇵🇭🇱🇦🇻🇳📈🚗 Demand for Chinese EVs in Asia, especially in the #Philippines, #Laos, and #Vietnam, is skyrocketing amid the energy crisis triggered by the third Gulf War — backorders stretch for a month.
There is no doubt — Europe will line up next.

🇯🇵 Japan’s SoftBank and AEP signed an agreement to produce natural gas in Ohio — Reuters

❗️⛴ 3,200 ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf.

Many vessels are running out of water, food, and fuel. Crews cannot go ashore, and relief staff cannot fly in to replace them.

➡️ Following a US and Israeli strike on the port of Bandar Lengeh in southern Iran last night, 16 commercial vessels owned by locals were destroyed and sunk. This was their main source of income.

🇮🇶 #Iraq has declared force majeure on all oil fields developed by foreign oil companies — Reuters.

🇶🇦 Qatari state gas giant QatarEnergy released a statement detailing the damage sustained overnight.
➡️ The ExxonMobil gas facility at the Ras Laffan LNG plant was severely damaged; it will take 5 years to restore it to pre-war capacity.

🇨🇳🇺🇸🤖📉 SMCI stock crashed 27% after company co-founder Yih-Shyan Liao was indicted for smuggling $2.5B worth of Nvidia AI chips to #China.

🇺🇸 While SMCI exports $2.5B in chips to China, the DOJ is offering $10 million to anyone who can provide information on Iranian hackers and key Iranian commanders for the purpose of their elimination.

🇨🇭 #Switzerland has suspended arms exports to the US due to the war with Iran — Reuters

🇴🇲 #Oman stated that #Israel pushed the US into a war with Iran when an agreement was possible — The Guardian

🇱🇰 #SriLanka rejected a US request to land military aircraft — The Hindu

🇬🇧 Trump dragged Britain into the war — The Standard
The #UK approved the use of its bases by American aviation for strikes in the Strait of Hormuz.


Netanyahu's Revelations at the Press Conference:
🔴🇮🇱 Netanyahu shifted responsibility for starting the war with Iran onto Trump:

"Trump is the leader, I am his ally."

Bibi also admitted that ultimately, the Iranian regime might survive despite all the indiscriminate bombings

➡️ According to Netanyahu, Israel will not send troops to Iran: "die yourselves for our interests."
Instead, #Israel will help the US open the Strait of Hormuz through "intelligence gathering" and "other means."

❗️🇺🇸 The US will send thousands of additional troops to the Middle East — Reuters

⚡️The US has completed preparations for a ground operation in Iran — CBS News citing sources close to the WH

💀🇺🇸 Posters reading "Operation Epstein's Fury" have appeared in Washington next to images of fallen American soldiers.

As people wake up, heavy AI models have had their screws tightened sharply — even the best models suddenly became "loyal" to the White House and began broadcasting political narratives instead of impartial analytics, and Grok is now leaking user conversations to Google — Forbes

➡️ Google has already indexed over 370k conversations with Grok, many containing sensitive information and passwords

💸📉🇺🇸 Today the US stock market lost over $1 trillion.

🧱 Gold fell below $4,500 per ounce
🧱 Silver — below $70

📉🏘 The real estate market collapsed:
The number of home sellers in the US exceeds buyers by more than 600,000 — Redfin

➡️ Deflation in the rental market — across the US:
Austin — prices fell by 22%
Fort Myers — by 19%
Denver — by 13%
Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas — by 11%

⚡️12-month inflation expectations in the US rose to 5.2%

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#US vs #IRAN — is it REALLY over?

Trump: "We're done, but we're not done."
⚡️🇺🇸 The U.S. operation against Iran is over, Trump said in a Fox News interview.

"This morning we got a call from the right people, the right ones, and they want to make a deal."

According to Vance, "The U.S. has achieved its goals in Iran, which is why they're winding down the military operation" — Fox News


⚡️🇺🇸 The U.S. has fully blockaded Iranian ports and completely halted maritime trade with Iran in less than 36 hours — CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper

🇬🇧❌🇺🇸 The #UK did not join the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
🇪🇺🇫🇷🇬🇧 Europe is preparing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the war, led by France and the UK, but without U.S. involvement — WSJ

⚡️🇮🇷 In the past 24 hours, 20 commercial vessels were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz — Iran granted passage
Ships from Iran continue to cross Hormuz despite the U.S. blockade — Kpler Intelligence
Among them, a sanctioned Iranian VLCC supertanker capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels of crude oil passed through Hormuz

⚡️🇨🇳 Beijing called the US blockade dangerous and irresponsible
The U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker Rich Starry passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, carrying 250,000 barrels of methanol

🇮🇹❌🇮🇱 #Italy suspended the renewal of its defense cooperation agreement with #Israel

🇪🇸 Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez:

"I firmly believe it is in the interest of both #Spain and #Europe to strengthen ties with #China."

🇸🇦❌🇺🇸 Saudi Arabia is urging the US to end the Hormuz blockade and resume negotiations, fearing escalation — WSJ
Iran could retaliate by blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a key oil export route.


➡️ The real reasons the war ended

🪖 LOSSES:
🇺🇸❌🚀U.S. Army spokesperson Jimmy Arter stated that the deployed artillery unit had exhausted its entire stock of Lockheed Martin Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) early in the war against Iran last month — Aviation Week

✈️ Following recent losses and damage to its tanker fleet, the U.S. Air Force was forced to return decommissioned KC-135 tankers to service, including a 68-year-old Stratotanker built in 1958 — Bild

🇮🇷🇨🇳 It has been revealed that Iran secretly acquired a Chinese-built spy satellite (TEE-01B) in late 2024 through the IRGC's aerospace division — FT
The satellite was used to monitor key U.S. military bases in the Middle East, providing real-time imagery and coordinates.
➡️ Compare this with U.S. and Israeli strikes based on 15-year-old Google Maps imagery (the strike on kid's school in Minab, carried out 2.5 hours before Trump's order)

⚡️Confirmed: U.S. Navy surveillance drone MQ-4C Triton crashed on April 9 over the Persian Gulf — TWZ
It suddenly descended and disappeared from radar
The drone, carrying critical reconnaissance technology, is valued at $238 million

🗺 Satellite imagery shows a U.S. CH-47 Chinook helicopter was hit by Iranian strikes at Camp Buehring in Kuwait, and a CH-53 Sea Stallion helicopter was damaged at Ali Al Salem Air Base

The losses don't end there
⏺ 399 U.S. service members have been wounded during the conflict with Iran

❗️The U.S. has lost 7 more MQ-9 Reaper drones, bringing the total number of destroyed MQ-9 Reapers to 24 — EGYOSINT

🚢 U.S. destroyers USS Michael Murphy and USS Frank E. Peterson narrowly avoided destruction in the Strait of Hormuz.

💸 Iran demands reparations
‼️🇮🇷🪙 🇧🇭🇸🇦🇶🇦🇦🇪🇯🇴 Iran has officially demanded compensation from #Bahrain, #Saudi_Arabia, #Qatar, the #UAE, and #Jordan, accusing them of facilitating U.S. and Israeli attacks by allowing the use of their airspace, bases, or territory.
Tehran is demanding full reparations of $270 billion.

➡️ UPD:
Trump lifted his own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, saying he did so for the sake of China and the world.

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