⚡️🇮🇷🇨🇳Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh Arrives in China for SCO meeting — Bloomberg
⏺The gathering on Wednesday and Thursday is being hosted by China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun.
🇧🇾🇮🇳🇰🇿🇵🇰🇹🇯🇺🇿 #Iran, which has conducted joint drills with #China, joined the SCO in 2023. The China-led security bloc also includes #Belarus, #India, #Kazakhstan, #Kyrgyzstan, #Pakistan, #Tajikistan and #Uzbekistan as members.
UPD:
🔴 Iran is considering purchasing Chinese Chengdu J-10C fighter jets.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/lmdI9xzjk7U

⚡️🇮🇷🇨🇳 Министр обороны Ирана Азиз Насирзаде прибыл в Китай на саммит ШОС — Bloomberg
⏺В среду и четверг будет организована встреча с министром обороны Китая Дун Цзюнем
🇧🇾🇮🇳🇰🇿🇵🇰🇹🇯🇺🇿 #Иран присоединился к ШОС в 2023 году. В возглавляемый Китаем блок безопасности также входят #Беларусь, #Индия, #Казахстан, #Кыргызстан, #Пакистан, #Таджикистан и #Узбекистан
UPD:
🔴 Иран рассматривает возможность закупки китайских истребителей Chengdu J-10C.

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⚡️🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump said that he signed a trade agreement with #China yesterday.

🇮🇳The #US President also mentioned the prospect of soon concluding a similar agreement with #India.


⚡️🇺🇸🇨🇳 Трамп сообщил, что вчера подписал торгового соглашения с Китаем.

🇮🇳Также президент #США упомянул о перспективе скорого заключения аналогичного соглашения с Индией.
#Китай #Индия

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🇷🇺❌🇮🇳 #Russia has postponed S-400 deliveries to #India for three years — Times of India
One of the key contracts for the supply of Russian weapons abroad — the sale of S-400 systems to India — has been disrupted.

Deliveries under the $5.4 billion contract, which was signed in 2018, have been de facto postponed for three years. According to the publication's sources, Defense Minister Belousov promised his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh at a meeting of the heads of the SCO defense ministries in China that the fourth S-400 division would be sent to India at the end of 2026, and the second by the end of 2027.

Each S-400 squadron has two batteries, each of which has a combat complement of 128 missiles with a target interception range of up to 380 km, as well as radars and all-terrain transporters.

🇷🇺❌🇮🇳 #Россия отложила на три года поставки С-400 в Индию — Times of India
Один из ключевых контрактов на поставку за рубеж российского оружия — продажа в Индию систем С-400 — оказался сорван.

Поставки по контракту на $5,4 млрд, который был заключен в 2018 году, отложены де-факто на три года. По словам собеседников издания, министр обороны Белоусов на встрече глав Минобороны стран ШОС в Китае пообещал своему индийскому коллеге Раджнатху Сингху, что четвертый дивизион С-400 отправится в Индию в конце 2026 года, а второй — до конца 2027-го.

Один дивизион включает две батареи, каждая из которых имеет боекомплект из 128 ракет с дальностью перехвата целей до 380 км, а также радары и транспортеры-вездеходы.

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#NEWS

🇷🇺❌🇺🇦 Putin refused to cease fire in Ukraine in first call with Macron in three years, once again calling Russian aggression against Ukraine "a direct consequence of Western governments' policies" — Moscow Times

🇷🇺📉 Gazprom doesn't know what to do with 60 billion cubic meters of unsold gas, as Russian gas exports to Europe have fallen to levels seen in the early 1970s — Reuters
⏺Gazprom is drowning in losses: in 2025, due to the lack of export opportunities, the company faces losses of 15 trillion rubles.

🇩🇪📈 #Germany plans to double its defense spending within five years — Defense News

🇬🇧🤝🇩🇪 #UK and #Germany prepare to sign wide-ranging mutual defense treaty — Politico

🇮🇷🇮🇱 #Iran planned to mine the Strait of Hormuz in the midst of a 12-day military conflict with #Israel, through which 20% of global oil and gas supplies pass — Reuters

🇺🇸❌🇯🇵 Trump Calls Japan ‘Very Spoiled,’ Claims It Won’t Buy US Rice — Tokyo Weekender

🇩🇰🪖 Denmark to conscript women for 11-month military service by lot when they reach 18 — BBC

🇷🇺⛴ GPS failures in the Baltic Sea are becoming more frequent – ​​the Russian fleet may be behind it, — BILD

🇺🇸💰🇷🇺 Lack of new #US sanctions allowed #Russia to replenish its military budget — NYT
⏺Moreover, the Trump administration has even relaxed restrictions in some cases.

🇰🇵🤝🇷🇺 #NorthKorea to send 30,000 more troops to bolster Russia’s forces — CNN

🇺🇸📉 #US dollar suffers worst times since 1973 — Financial Times
⏺The U.S. currency has weakened more than 10% over the past six months against a basket of currencies from major U.S. trading partners.

🇺🇸❌🇺🇦 #US halts ammunition deliveries to #Ukraine for several months
🤷 Ukraine hasn't received official reports of suspension of defense aid supplies from the United States — Ukrainian Defense Ministry

⚠️🇺🇦 Ukraine's stockpiles of weapons and missiles for Western systems will last until the end of the summer, but then the situation will become critical, — BILD

🇺🇸🇮🇳🇯🇵 BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, pivots away from the US to #India and #Japan — Bloomberg

⚡️🇷🇺🇻🇪 #Russia Opens Weapons and Ammunition Plant in #Venezuela — Moscow Times

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🇮🇷 #IRAN

❗️Additional information on Iran

This is not "preparation for a strike"; a regime change is underway.

🇬🇧🇮🇳🇨🇦🇦🇺🇷🇺🇹🇷 #UK, #India, #Canada, #Australia, and #Russia are urging their citizens to leave Iran immediately; #Turkey is working on an emergency evacuation of its citizens from Iran, with 12 planes having departed in the last 24 hours (Ankara has already issued a denial, claiming it’s "nothing special" and "everyone just imagined it...").

Analysis: If even Turkey (a neighbor and key trading partner) is evacuating people while hiding behind denials, it means they expect chaos rather than surgical strikes. Surgical strikes on bunkers do not require the evacuation of civilians from Tehran. Evacuation is necessary if the following is expected:
• Nationwide power and communication blackouts.
• Urban warfare (street fighting).
• The collapse of the government.

🇮🇱🇯🇴 #Israel is detonating minefields on the Israeli-Jordanian border in preparation for the construction of a border wall.

Analysis: #Jordan acts as a buffer. If Israel is clearing minefields, it could mean preparation for a ground corridor (unlikely) or, more likely, anticipation of a massive influx of refugees or a breakthrough of militants from the east in the event of a regional collapse. Alternatively, they may be preparing sites for deploying additional Arrow-3 batteries closer to the eastern border to intercept Iranian missiles over Jordan.

🇱🇧 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Beirut this morning on an official visit, leading a political-economic delegation to meet with Lebanese officials. Araghchi stated that Tehran is ready for negotiations with the #US based on mutual interests, but also remains ready for war if that is Washington's intention.

Analysis: This is diplomacy in its death throes. The statement "ready for war but want negotiations" is a classic cry for help. However, flying to Beirut (which is currently in Israel's crosshairs) is suicidal. Either Araghchi is delivering a message to Hezbollah to "throw everything you have into the fight, we are perishing," or, more likely, he is trying to negotiate personal security guarantees through #Lebanon (and #France).

🇮🇷 Iranian opposition media:
Kurdistan, Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Kermanshah, Ilam, Lorestan, Hamadan, and Mashhad — the entire territory of Iran is in a state of full revolutionary surge.

This is the KEY FACTOR:

• In 2025, strikes unified the nation (partially).
• In 2026, if the people are already in the streets, an external strike on IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) bases and government bunkers will be perceived not as aggression, but as assistance to the uprising.
• If the regime wavers, the US will launch a "Decapitation Strike" to finish off the leadership and give the opposition a chance to take power.

Possible Scenario: The West is waiting for a night when protests either subside or, conversely, reach their peak to strike IRGC communication and command centers, paralyzing their ability to suppress the rebellion.

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🌎#G7 countries and their allies met in Washington to discuss ways to reduce dependence on China for rare earth elements
☄️WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) — The meeting, convened by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, included finance ministers from G7 members #Japan, #UK, #France, #Germany, #Italy, #Canada and the #US as well as officials from #Australia, #Mexico, #SouthKorea and #India

🇯🇵🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇨🇦🇺🇸🇦🇺🇲🇽🇰🇷🇮🇳

🌎Страны «Большой семерки» и их союзники встретились в Вашингтоне, чтобы обсудить пути снижения зависимости от Китая в отношении редкоземельных элементов.
☄️ВАШИНГТОН, 12 января (Reuters) — Во встрече, созванной министром финансов США Скоттом Бессентом, приняли участие министры финансов стран «Большой семерки»: #Япония, #Великобритания, #Франция, #Германия, #Италия, #Канада и #США, а также официальные лица из #Австралия, #Мексика, #ЮжнаяКорея и #Индия

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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🧠 Analysis: The Domino Effect

PART 2: "The Silent Bomb"

3. Fertilizers: The Hunger Clock

🌾 While the world watches oil prices and missile trajectories, a far more devastating crisis is unfolding in silence.

45% of the world's urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Urea is the foundation of nitrogen fertilizers. Nitrogen fertilizers are the foundation of modern agriculture. Without them, crop yields drop by 40-50%. This isn't about energy prices or stock markets. This is about food.

$50 billion worth of nitrogen fertilizers have been exported from the Persian Gulf since 2020. The importing countries read like a map of global hunger vulnerability:

🇮🇳 India — $11 billion in imports from the Gulf (49% from Oman)

🇧🇷 Brazil — $8 billion (43% from Qatar)

🇺🇸 USA — $5 billion (51% from Qatar)

🇦🇺 Australia — $5 billion (31% from UAE)

🇧🇩 Bangladesh — $4 billion (44% from Saudi Arabia)

🇹🇭 Thailand — $4 billion (57% from Saudi Arabia)

🇹🇷 Turkey — $4 billion (87% from Oman)

These aren't abstract numbers. They are countdown timers.

➡️ Fertilizer must be purchased 2-3 months before planting season. Which means the point of no return isn't in the fall, when harvests fail. It's right now:

• Bangladesh: The aus planting season begins in April. Point of no return: March 2026 — now. If Hormuz doesn't reopen within weeks, 170 million people face a season without adequate fertilizer.

• India: The kharif season (rice, millet, cotton) begins in June-July. Point of no return: April-May. The states most dependent on imported fertilizer — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand — are home to 600 million people, many already at subsistence level.

• Brazil: The safrinha corn season begins in September-October. More time — but Brazil is the world's largest exporter of soybeans and a top meat producer. If the Brazilian harvest drops 40%, global food prices spike for everyone.

➡️ The chain reaction: Hormuz closed → fertilizers undelivered → spring 2026 planting without fertilizer → autumn harvest down 40% → food crisis by winter 2026-2027.

❗️🇪🇺 But there's a dimension that makes this existential for #Europe — a continent that isn't even in this war.

🇮🇳 #India: 1.4 billion people. No fence.

If the kharif season fails, hunger will hit India's poorest states hardest. Even if just 1% of the affected population moves — that's 6 million people. Their route: through Pakistan, Iran (if the war ends), or via the Persian Gulf → Turkey → Europe. The same route Syrian refugees took in 2015. Only 10-20 times larger.

In 2015, 1.3 million refugees broke European politics. Brexit. The rise of AfD in Germany. Orbán in Hungary. Le Pen in France. The entire right-wing wave of 2016-2024 was a consequence of one migration crisis.

➡️ Now imagine 5-10 million — from India, Bangladesh, Iran, Iraq — arriving simultaneously. Europe has no wall. Schengen means open borders. Trump built his fence. Europe didn't. And this asymmetry is not accidental — it benefits precisely those who lit the match.

@REALITY_ANALYST