🇧🇾 With the advent of Vladimir Makei to the post of Foreign Minister in 2012, a thaw began in relations between Minsk and the West. Despite the fact that Makei himself was under sanctions and banned from entering the EU at that time, Brussels expressed readiness to work with him. Europoliticians saw in Makei a person with whom they can discuss the problems existing in #Belarus.

Gradually, step by step, meeting after meeting, Makei established contacts and unfroze relations between Minsk and Western countries. He was able to ensure that the EU lifted most of the sanctions previously imposed against Belarus in exchange for the release of political prisoners and the adoption of decisions that formally testified to a decrease in authoritarian pressure in the country.

Thanks to Makei's efforts, the doors in the West opened again for Lukashenko, and the Belarusian economy began to unfold and diversify again

Makei was one of the few Belarusian functionaries who didn't hide his family.

🇪🇺 In 2013, Makei said that "Minsk can make a 180-degree turn and begin integration with the #EU."
However, after 8 years, he was already actively supporting deeper integration with Russia.

❗️🇺🇸🇪🇺🇷🇺🇨🇳 In 2016, at a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the OSCE countries in Hamburg, Makei invited representatives of Western countries, #Russia and #China to meet in Minsk "for a frank conversation about the causes of the crisis in international relations", expressing concern that "alienation between the West and Russia is growing, and the prospect of a new cold war is becoming ever clearer."
👉 As least it's not clear why the West didn't pay attention to this for so long, preferring not to notice the obvious.

In summer of 2020, a couple of months before the elections, when Lukashenka fired most of the government, Makei managed to keep his position.
Makei said that the country needs change, but not by way of revolution. At the same time, he admitted that due to the harsh suppression of protests, Belarus was thrown back "many years ago in its development."

However, soon Makei was forced to change his rhetoric and accused the West of trying to implement the “Ukrainian scenario” in Belarus.
Recently, he contacted mainly with colleagues from Russia and from several CSTO countries.

The life and death of Makei is a vivid example of how the West spit on danger warnings, abandoning those who seek help in the most difficult times. Just like happened the other day in Syria with the Kurds.

Half a ton of heroin was burned at the Minsk Tractor Plant
🇦🇫🇮🇷🇷🇺🇧🇾🇪🇺 More than 500 kg of heroin were imported into #Belarus under the guise of delivering fruits from #Iran in transit through #Russia for further delivery to the #EU countries, writes Belta, while Belarus acted as a transshipment point.
"The investigation established that from May to November 2019, members of an international criminal group organized the supply of heroin from #Afghanistan to the EU countries through Belarus."

Новость из серии ненаучной фантастики:
На Минском тракторном заводе сожгли пол-тонны героина
🇦🇫🇮🇷🇷🇺🇧🇾🇪🇺 Более 500 кг героина были ввезены в РБ под видом поставки фруктов из Ирана транзитом через #РФ для дальнейшей поставки в страны Евросоюза, — пишет Belta, — а #Беларусь выступала в качестве перевалочного пункта.
"Следствие установило, что участники международной преступной группы с мая по ноябрь 2019 года организовали поставку героина с территории Афганистана в страны #ЕC через Беларусь."

#Belarus
⚠️🇧🇾 In addition, units of special operations forces — the 103rd Vitebsk Separate Guards Airborne Brigade — have been deployed to the Brest region, closer to the border with #Ukraine.

A large echelon with the equipment of this brigade was also sent in the direction of the Brest region:
▪️ APC — at least 10 units;
▪️ MBTS "Caiman" — at least 3 units;
▪️ MAZs, Urals — at least 25 units;
▪️Fuel trucks — at least 2 units;
▪️Passenger and freight cars.


⚠️🇧🇾 Кроме того, в Брестскую область, ближе к границе с Украиной, переброшены подразделения сил специальных операций — 103-я Витебская отдельная гвардейская воздушно-десантная бригада.

В направлении Брестской области отправлен также крупный эшелон с техникой этой бригады:
▪️ БТР — мин. 10 ед;
▪️ МБТС «Кайман» — мин. 3 ед;
▪️ МАЗы, Уралы — мин. 25 ед;
▪️Бензовозы — мин. 2 ед;
▪️Вагоны пассажирские и грузовые.

"Крыса загнанная в угол опасна — но в то же время предсказуема"
🇷🇺🔥🇺🇦 О чем еще не знают западные генералы
Почему новое российское наступление, о котором столько говорят на Западе, вряд ли возможно
🇧🇾 #Беларусь никогда не вступит в войну (по многим причинам), а сама #Россия не имеет резервов для 200-тысячной армии, зато имеет огромные проблемы с ПВО, снарядами для артиллерии и со связью; военные ремонтные заводы массово ликвидируются...
Громоздкие, сверх-централизованные российские соединения плохо подготовлены к современной войне 21 века с его сверхточным оружием


"A cornered rat is dangerous - but at the same time predictable"
🇷🇺🔥🇺🇦 What Western Generals Don't Know Yet
Why a new Russian offensive, about which there is so much talk in the West, is hardly possible

1️⃣ Right now, military factories are being massively liquidated in Russia:
— Rostov, JSC Spetsremont "50th Automobile Repair Plant" (bankruptcy)
— PJSC "Motovilikhinskiye Zavody", founded in 1736, put up for sale for only 9 billion rubles
(these factories produced MLRS "Grad", "Smerch", "Hurricane", etc.)
— Novosibirsk military center (15 central automobile repair plant) went under the hammer for 212 million rubles
— The Rostov repair plant is also in the process of liquidation
etc.
In September alone, 13 Russian military repair plants were liquidated

2️⃣ #Belarus will never go to war against Ukraine
One of the reasons — 6 out of 14 Belarusian thermal power plants are under constant fire control of Ukrainian HIMARSs

3️⃣ Russia has no reserves for a 200,000-strong army
Of the 3,000 tanks that #Russia had at the beginning of the invasion, almost 1,600 were destroyed during the 10 months of the war. Another 30% were out of order due to technical problems.
Now the Kremlin has 850-870 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles left. At the same time, modern Russian capacities allow the production of only about 15 tanks per month, because in the country there is only one serial assembly lineat Uralvagonzavod

4️⃣ Russia has big problems with air defense
Moscow was forced to deprive its northern borders of air cover, because air defense systems aren't enough

5️⃣ The Russian army has already started having problems with artillery shells, they have to be saved
In March, the RF Armed Forces fired up to 60,000 shells a day; Now it's about 20,000

6️⃣ In the Russian army, even communication problems have not yet been eliminated: the RF Armed Forces still use wired communications, as during WW II ...

7️⃣ The bulky, over-centralized Russian formations are ill-suited to modern 21st century warfare with its ultra-precise weapons.

Putin, driven into a corner, is indeed dangerous, but extremely predictable. Everyone understands that this war will end with the inevitable defeat of Russia, the only question is timing

🇷🇺🇧🇾 Moscow deploys its non-strategic nuclear weapons to #Belarus
The agreement on its deployment was signed by the Ministers of Defense of Russia and Belarus Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin. According to the agreement, Belarus is responsible for storage; control and the right to use nuclear weapons remain with Russia.

❗️On Russian state-TV, Kremlin propagandists are already hinting at the possibility of an "accidental explosion", the responsibility for which can be blamed on "a provocation by US" ...
Considering that all broadcasts on Russian TV are tightly controlled by the presidential administration, this is all that's worth knowing about the Kremlin's adequacy.

It's obvious that Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil may become the subject of the next stage of the Kremlin's blackmail over Belarus' entry into the war against #Ukraine.
Lukashenko said that he "doesn't yet know" whether there are already Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus or not, but, according to him, they are "already being delivered."

🇷🇺🚀🇵🇱🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪🇩🇪🇸🇰🇨🇿🇺🇦 Given the range of the Iskanders, Russian missiles deployed in Belarus can threaten almost the entire territory of #Poland, the #Baltic countries and partially #Germany, #Slovakia, the #Czech Republic and Ukraine.

🇺🇸🇪🇺 The U.S. State Department denounced the deployment plan, but said it still "doesn't see" any signs Russia was preparing to use a nuclear weapon.
Reuters
Al Jazeera English

P.S. And here is the time to recall the repeated warnings of political scientists that Putin could launch a nuclear strike on Poland and one of the Baltic countries before September. In particular, Yuri Felshtinsky stated that "the scenario of a nuclear war in Europe has been agreed with China."
https://youtu.be/CMeh_eh8ydM
https://youtu.be/sCaJFOqhUyw

#Poland #Lithuania #Belarus #Russia
🇵🇱 After reports about Prigozhin's "departure for Belarus," the Polish military is additionally strengthening the borders with Belarus.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on June 25 that the Polish military had strengthened the defensive lines on the country's eastern borders with Belarus and more than 230 kilometers of the border with Russia's Kaliningrad Region in the northeast.

🇱🇹 President of Lithuania also stated that in case Prigozhin and his PMCs appear in Belarus, the whole eastern flank of NATO will have to be strengthened.

🇩🇪 #Germany will permanently deploy 4,000 military personnel on Lithuanian territory.


#Польша #Литва #Беларусь #Россия
🇵🇱 После сообщений об "отъезде Пригожина в Беларусь" польские военные дополнительно укрепляют рубежи на границе с РБ
По словам премьер-министра Польши, предпринимаемые меры — реакция на возможную угрозу со стороны России.
Премьер-министр Польши Матеуш Моравецкий заявил 25 июня, что польские военные укрепили оборонительные рубежи на восточных границах страны с Беларусью и более 230 километров границы с Калининградской областью.

🇱🇹 Президент Литвы также заявил,что в случае появления на территории Беларуси Пригожина и его ЧВК придётся усиливать весь восточный фланг НАТО

🇩🇪 #Германия разместит на постоянной основе 4000 военных на территории Литвы.

🇵🇱🇪🇺🇷🇺🇧🇾 #Poland informed NATO of the incident with two Belarusian helicopters, which took place south of the Suwalki gap, a 60-mile line that is strategically significant to #NATO, the #EU, #Russia and #Belarus.
But NATO again “didn't see” the occasion of applying Article 5. 🙃
And this despite the fact that last week, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki already reported that Wagner mercenaries were heading towards the Suwalki corridor via Grodno, a city in western Belarus, in a situation that is “becoming even more dangerous” as Russian-allied forces attempt to increase their presence near the NATO border.
▪️“By deploying troops from both the west (Kaliningrad) and the east (Belarus), Russia would be able to effectively cut off the Baltic States from its NATO allies in central and western Europe. This would allow Putin to potentially invade countries like Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia.”
👉 ...while NATO, along with grandpa Biden, will habitually chew snot and scratch eggs ...
However, as we said, the Alliance has long turned into a bunch of old senile people who can only express "deep concern"

❗️Риск «полномасштабной войны»
🇵🇱🇪🇺🇷🇺🇧🇾 #Польша проинформировала НАТО об инциденте с белорусскими вертолетами, который произошел к югу от Сувалкской бреши, 60-мильной линии, имеющей стратегическое значение для #НАТО, #ЕС, России и Беларуси.
Но в НАТО снова "не увидели" повода для применения статьи 5.🤡
И это при том, что на прошлой неделе премьер-министр Польши Матеуш Моравецкий уже сообщал, что вагнера направляются в сторону Сувалкского коридора через Гродно на западе Беларуси, и ситуация «становится всё более опасной», поскольку союзники России пытаются увеличить свое присутствие вблизи границ НАТО.
▪️«Размещая войска как с запада (Калининград), так и с востока (Беларусь), Россия сможет эффективно отрезать страны Балтии от своих союзников по НАТО в Центральной и Западной Европе. Это позволит Путину потенциально вторгнуться в такие страны, как Литва, Латвия или Эстония».
👉 ...пока НАТО во главе с Байденом будет по привычке жевать сопли и чесать яйца...
Впрочем, как мы и говорили, Альянс давно превратился в сборище старых маразматиков, способных только выражать "глубокую озабоченность"

👺 How Fake News Is Born

▫️Unlike the GRU (Chief Directorate of Intelligence), the 12th GU MO is not formally the chief directorate of the General Staff, but a chief directorate of the Ministry of Defense. As such it is not subordinated to the Chief of the General Staff of the Soviet/Russian Armed Forces, but directly to the Minister of Defense, which makes it higher in status compared to the GRU.

‼️ At the same time, over the past week, a high degree of disinformation has been noted from channels closely associated with the GRU.
Thus, several Russian-language and foreign TG-channels bought into the "duck" about the "transfer of armored vehicles of the Belarusian army to the border with Ukraine".
The leak was initiated by the war Z-correspondents' channels back in early August and was activated in the international media space via Reuters immediately after Ukraine began the "Kursk operation". After that, the fake about the "transfer of Belarusian troops to the Ukrainian border" was unanimously picked up by pro-russian multilingual Tg-channels and channels directly connected to the GRU, such as "Military Informant" and "Military Observer" (both channels are run by colonels of the russian Armed Forces)

The purpose of such 'media bait' is quite obvious — to pull part of the Ukrainian forces from the front to the border with #Belarus. But apparently, it's still not obvious to everyone... If Western intel relies on the same "truthful sources" as the Reuters agency, then it's not surprising that Putin's war has lasted almost 3 years... 😎

⚡️🇷🇺🇧🇾🇸🇾 #Russia and #Belarus have evacuated some of the personnel of their foreign missions in #Syria, taking North Koreans with them, the Russian Foreign Ministry's Situation and Crisis Center reported:

On December 15, a special flight of the Russian Aerospace Forces from the Khmeimim airbase evacuated some of the personnel of Russian foreign missions in Damascus to Chkalovsky Airport. Employees of the diplomatic missions of Belarus, North Korea and Abkhazia were also evacuated.

⚡️🇷🇺🇧🇾🇸🇾 #Россия и #Беларусь эвакуировали часть персонала загранпредставительств в Сирии, прихватив с собой северокорейцев, сообщил Департамент Ситуационно-кризисного центра МИД РФ.
#Сирия

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⚡️🇺🇸🇧🇾 The #US State Department has called on its citizens to leave #Belarus immediately

"U.S. citizens should regularly reevaluate possible departure plans in the event of an emergency. Additional closures of crossing points along Belarus’ borders with Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, and Ukraine are possible.,"

the State Department said in a statement.

🔗travel.state.gov

⚡️🇺🇸🇧🇾 Госдеп #США призвал своих граждан немедленно покинуть #Беларусь

"Граждане США должны регулярно пересматривать возможные планы отъезда в случае чрезвычайной ситуации. Возможны дополнительные закрытия пунктов пропуска вдоль границ Беларуси с Литвой, Польшей, Латвией и Украиной",

— говорится в сообщении Госдепа

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🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸 In 2016 DATAIX got the opportunity to establish a direct session with #US telecom operator providing colocation Hurricane Electric, the largest operator in the world in terms of the number of IPv4 and IPv6 prefixes. As a result, the maximum network load in 2016 was 2.2 Tbit/s, and the throughput capacity of channels between Moscow and St. Petersburg increased to 400 Gbit/s.

🇷🇺🇪🇺🇸🇪🇱🇻 In 2017, DATAIX officially entered the Euro-IX Internet exchange association, and also launched points of presence in #Sweden and #Latvia.

🇷🇺🇫🇮🇸🇪 In March 2018, it was announced that Global-IX and DATAIX are merging under the brand of the latter, but on the base of the GlobalNet infrastructure, which includes its own highway communication networks on the Stockholm-Helsinki-St. Petersburg-Moscow route.

🇳🇱🇩🇪🇺🇿🇺🇦🇧🇾 In 2019, the number of PoPs in 7 countries increased from 28 to 34. Points of presence in Amsterdam, and Frankfurt am Main were added. As of December 2019, the total port capacity for clients was 59.431 Tbit/s. Another national operator, Uzbektelecom, has joined the DATAIX participants.
As of 2019, the combined Globalnet and DATAIX network also served 90% of the Ukrainian telecom market and 100% of #Belarus.

🇳🇱🇩🇪🇸🇪🇩🇰 At the end of 2021, the company launched new trunk routes on the European sections Stockholm - Copenhagen - Hamburg - Amsterdam - Frankfurt, and the number of POPs in 8 countries increased from 38 to 48. POPs were added in the #Netherlands, #Germany, #Sweden and #Denmark.

🇷🇺🤝🇪🇺In 2022, after the start of the Russian war against Ukraine, a new logical network segment was launched in Europe, including the cities of Helsinki, Stockholm, Hamburg, Amsterdam and Frankfurt. At the end of the year, DATAIX ranked 7th in terms of the number of active autonomous systems (ASN) among traffic exchange points according to the international IXPDB rating

So, as you can see, not only the FBI and the CIA, but also their European colleagues, “don't catch mice.” 😜

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‼️🇷🇺🇪🇺 Russia’s Large-Scale Modernization of Nuclear Facilities Near Europe: Risks for European and Global Security

Key Modernization Sites:

🔺 Kaliningrad: Significant expansion and upgrades at the base — new buildings, triple-layered fencing, and modern communications infrastructure. According to Polish authorities, the site may house around 100 tactical nuclear warheads.

🔺 Osipovichi (#Belarus): A former Soviet nuclear weapons storage facility is being modernized — featuring a new rail loading platform, air defense systems, triple fencing, new buildings, and upgraded communications.

🔺 Kola Peninsula: About 50 new bunkers for storing submarine-launched ballistic missiles have been built, along with a specialized pier for missile loading.

🔺 Novaya Zemlya: Large new structures have been constructed at this key nuclear testing site, considered by experts as Russia’s most important base for nuclear trials.

🔺 Other Sites: Infrastructure and logistics upgrades, including railway improvements and enhanced security systems.

Experts note that Russia has significantly lowered the threshold for nuclear threats — since 2022 alone, such threats have been made over 200 times at various political levels. The threat from Russia was a major factor behind Sweden and Finland’s decision to join NATO and has contributed to the consolidation of European security policies.

However, how the #US and #NATO will respond remains uncertain.

It’s clear that in the event of a Baltic states’ annexation, the #UN and NATO will most likely limit themselves to expressing “deep concern” — as usual, avoiding escalation under the pretext of “not wanting to inflame the conflict” (in reality, due to the weak military capabilities of Western European countries accustomed to comfort and prosperity at the expense of security). The U.S. is also unlikely to respond decisively while Trump remains in power.

❗️The “Overton window” leading to World War III is wide open. Who will strike the first match — #Russia, #Iran, or #China? Beijing probably won’t — with its millennia-old history, China knows how to “wait by the riverbank until the corpse of the enemy floats by.” North Korea can’t bear the burden of a “major war” — plus, its leadership’s moves largely depend on the “big Chinese brother.” The Americans have nearly dealt with Iran — through Israel and Mossad. But who will watch over the Eastern European flank? So far, no one seems willing.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇧🇾🤝🇺🇸 A Russian Defense Ministry delegation returns from Brest, #Belarus, after a meeting where dictator Lukashenko called Kellogg a "dear friend"
#Russia #USA

⚡️🇷🇺🇧🇾🤝🇺🇸 Делегация Министерства обороны России возвращается из Бреста, #Беларусь, после встречи, на которой диктатор Лукашенко назвал Келлога "дорогим другом"
#Россия #США

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